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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief        June 8, 2012                               Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalen...
Weekly SummaryThe Wisconsin recall election was the highlight of a busy political week. Governor ScottWalker out performed...
Americans remain pessimistic about the direction of the country.                                      Direction of the Cou...
Obama’s approval rating remains split.                                            Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60%      ...
The national debt continues to climb. $15,765,115,652,256                                              U.S. National Debt$...
Republicans are maintaining their edge on the generic             congressional ballot.                          Generic C...
Much like his overall image, Obama’s economic approval has         flattened out.                      Obama Economic Appr...
The disappointing May jobs report isn’t helping the president. There are only 5 more        reports before the election.  ...
Romney and Obama are tied as the race moves into summer.                                         Obama vs. Romney100%90%80...
Walker’s success among Independents was critical to his overall effort.                                             Party1...
Walker also did very well among voters over 30.                                               Age100%90%80%       46%     ...
In an election that was clearly a referendum on Walker’s union legislation, Walker           received relatively strong su...
Some have argued that poor tactics were responsible for Barrett’s loss, and they may               have a point, with Walk...
Most voters approved of how Walker handled the collective bargaining situation.                  How Walker Handled Collec...
A majority of Wisconsinites also approved of how Walker has handled unemployment.                    How Walker Handled Un...
One of the post election narratives that is being shopped around is the notion that Republicans              outspent Demo...
Despite talk about how Tuesday’s result was a “good night” for Obama, it is clear he is developing              a problem ...
For additional information about this or any other of our services,                         please feel free to contact:  ...
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  1. 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief June 8, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • An extensive overview of the Wisconsin recall election, including: • Where did Independents end up? • What did Union voters do? • Was the recall appropriate? Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly SummaryThe Wisconsin recall election was the highlight of a busy political week. Governor ScottWalker out performed expectations to win big in a hotly contested race that drew heavynational attention.The recall election was a clear referendum on Walker’s legislation limiting the collectivebargaining of public employees, and 38% of union members voted for the Governor. Alsoof note, Walker won all age groups of voters over 30 years old.While there is a narrative developing that Republicans dramatically outspent Democrats,a look at overall spending on candidates at all levels in the state shows the two partiesspent roughly the same amount.Ben Bernanke discussed options for further easing with lawmakers but declined to gointo specifics after last weeks disastrous jobs report. Obama’s approval rating,economic approval, and share of the vote against Romney have all leveled off and showlittle movement, as Americans are waiting to see what the summer brings.Romney continues to gain ground on Obama, especially in Rust Belt states. Page 3
  4. 4. Americans remain pessimistic about the direction of the country. Direction of the County100%90%80% 75%70% 63% 63% 64% 57% 60% 59%60%50%40% 36% 34% 34% 29% 29% 30%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Approve Disapprove One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 32% 33% Wrong Track 61% 58% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  5. 5. Obama’s approval rating remains split. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 52% 49% 51% 51% 50% 48% 49% 49% 48% 48% 48% 48%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 47% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 49% 48% Disapprove 48% 47% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. The national debt continues to climb. $15,765,115,652,256 U.S. National Debt$138,608 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,256 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
  7. 7. Republicans are maintaining their edge on the generic congressional ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 44% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41%40% 45% 44% 43% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
  8. 8. Much like his overall image, Obama’s economic approval has flattened out. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 53% 50.0% 40.0% 40% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
  9. 9. The disappointing May jobs report isn’t helping the president. There are only 5 more reports before the election. National Unemployment Rate12.0% May, 201210.0% 8.2% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is unadjusted Page 9
  10. 10. Romney and Obama are tied as the race moves into summer. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47%50% 46% 46% 47%40% 46% 45% 45% 45% 46% 43% 44% 43% 44% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 10
  11. 11. Walker’s success among Independents was critical to his overall effort. Party100% 6% 0%90%80% 46% 45%70%60% 1% 1% 91%50% Barrett 94% IND/Other40% Walker30% 53% 54%20%10% 1% 8% 0% Total Republican Independent Democrat (35%) (31%) (34%) Source: Exit Polls Page 11
  12. 12. Walker also did very well among voters over 30. Age100%90%80% 46% 43% 47% 44% 51%70%60% 0% 0% 1% 0% Barrett50% 2% IND/Other40% Walker30% 53% 57% 53% 56% 47%20%10% 0% Total 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ (16%) (22%) (44%) (18%) Source: Exit Polls Page 12
  13. 13. In an election that was clearly a referendum on Walker’s union legislation, Walker received relatively strong support from union members. Opinion of recent changes in state law limiting collective bargaining100% 10%80% 46%60% 1% 89% Barrett40% 90% IND/Other20% 53% Walker 1% 10% 0% Total Approve Disapprove (54%) (47%) Union Households100%80% 46% 39% 62%60% 1% Barrett40% 61% IND/Other20% 53% 38% Walker 0% Total Union Non-Union (33%) (67%) Source: Exit Polls Page 13
  14. 14. Some have argued that poor tactics were responsible for Barrett’s loss, and they may have a point, with Walker winning big among voters who feel that recall elections should not be used frivolously or for partisan politics. Opinion on Recall Appropriateness100% 5% 1%90% 31%80% 46%70% 1%60% 1% 90%50% Barrett 94%40% IND/Other 68% Walker30% 53%20%10% 1% 9% 0% Total For any reason Only for official Never (27%) misconduct (10%) (60%) Source: Exit Polls Page 14
  15. 15. Most voters approved of how Walker handled the collective bargaining situation. How Walker Handled Collective Bargaining100% 4%90%80% 46%70%60% 1% 93% Barrett50% 96% IND/Other40% Walker30% 53%20%10% 7% 0% Total Approve Dissaprove (52%) (47%) Source: Exit Polls Page 15
  16. 16. A majority of Wisconsinites also approved of how Walker has handled unemployment. How Walker Handled Unemployment100% 7%90%80% 46%70%60% 1% 96% Barrett50% 93% IND/Other40% Walker30% 53%20%10% 1% 3% 0% Total Approve Dissaprove (54%) (45%) Source: Exit Polls Page 16
  17. 17. One of the post election narratives that is being shopped around is the notion that Republicans outspent Democrats by some large ratio. This is clearly preposterous, and doesn’t factor in Union contributions and the money spent generating turnout in the down-ballot races. 2011-12 Contributions to Candidates, PACS, and Parties$45,000,000$40,000,000 $36,938,302 $34,995,384$35,000,000$30,000,000$25,000,000$20,000,000$15,000,000$10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0 Republicans Democrats Source: Wisconsin State Journal Page 17
  18. 18. Despite talk about how Tuesday’s result was a “good night” for Obama, it is clear he is developing a problem in the manufacturing heartland of America.100%90%80%70%60% 51%50% 46% 48% 44% 45% 45%40%30%20%10% 0% Wisconsin Michigan Ohio Romney Obama Source: Wisconsin – Exit Polls Michigan- EPIC MRA June 2-5 Ohio- Purple Strategies May 31-June 5 Page 18
  19. 19. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Vice President 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 19
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