• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120601
 

WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120601

on

  • 537 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
537
Views on SlideShare
506
Embed Views
31

Actions

Likes
1
Downloads
0
Comments
0

2 Embeds 31

http://www.wparesearch.com 30
http://feeds.feedburner.com 1

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120601 WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120601 Presentation Transcript

    • WPA’s Weekly Political Brief June 1, 2012 Page 1
    • WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debtIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • An in depth look at Wisconsin ahead of Tuesday’s primary, including union rolls, Walker vs. Barrett, and how Romney and Obama are faring in the state. Page 2
    • Weekly SummaryThe Wisconsin primary takes a national focus this week, with Scott Walker andTom Barrett facing off in a recall rematch of their 2010 race. Walker has themomentum currently, though that doesn’t mean the state will fall easily toRomney.On the economic front, Obama’s rebound on economic job approval has stalledalong with hopes of a recovery. The May unemployment report wasdisappointing, rising a point to 8.2% as job growth stalled and growth estimatesfor previous months were downgraded.The Republican lead on the generic congressional ballot has stretched to twomonths now. Page 3
    • Six in ten Americans are unhappy about the direction of the country. Direction of the County100%90%80% 75%70% 63% 63% 64% 57% 60% 59%60%50%40% 36% 34% 34% 29% 29% 30%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Approve Disapprove One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 32% 33% Wrong Track 61% 58% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
    • Obama’s jobs approval remains split and just below 50%. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 52% 49% 51% 51% 50% 49% 49% 48% 48% 48% 48%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 49% 48% Disapprove 48% 47% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
    • The national debt per taxpayer increased by $416 this week. $15,743,180,165,125 U.S. National Debt$138,946 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,201 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
    • Republican’s have been leading the generic ballot for two months now. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 54% 53% 52% 45% 49% 47% 46% 43% 50%70%60% 0% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 45% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41%40% 45% 44% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 43% 41%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
    • Obama’s economic approval has steadied out as hopes of a recovery have slowly stalled. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 53% 50.0% 40.0% 41% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
    • Unemployment rose as job growth stalled in May with only 69,000 new jobs added, less than half of what analysts were expecting. Previous months growth numbers were also revised downward. National Unemployment Rate12.0% May, 201210.0% 8.2% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is unadjusted Page 9
    • Romney is closing the gap with Obama, who remains under 50%. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47%50% 46% 46% 46%40% 46% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 45% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 10
    • Pollster.com shows the race as very tight, with Walked unable to get above 50% and Barrett gaining some ground. Wisconsin Gubernatorial100%90%80%70%60% 49% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%50% 47% 48% 49%40% 45% 44% 45% 45%30%20%10% 0% Barrett Walker Source: Pollster.com Page 11
    • The Marquette poll shows Walker with a slightly larger lead, doing well among Independents. Wisconsin Gubernatorial Election100% 9%90% 3%80% 37% 45%70%60% 10% 80% 3% Barrett50% Undecided/Other 88%40% Walker30% 52% 53%20% 4%10% 16% 0% Total Republican Independent Democrat Source: Marquette Poll Page 12
    • Wisconsin voters think Walker would be better than Barrett at addressing all major issues confronting the state except education. Who would be better at… 37%Balancing the budget 55% 43% Creating jobs 50% 49%Improving education 45% 32% Holding down taxes 58% 49% Making taxes fair 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Barrett Walker Source: Marquette Poll Page 13
    • Wisconsin membership in the public employees union has dropped by 54% since Governor Walker’s reforms. AFSCME Winconsin Membership70,000 62,81860,00050,00040,00030,000 28,74520,00010,000 0 March, 2011 February, 2012 Source: Wall St. Journal Page 14
    • Even if Walker wins, the state is not necessarily a Romney win. Romney’s image is currently comparable to Barrett’s, while Obama is the most popular of the four politicians in the state. Wisconsin Images100%90%80% 41% 47% 46% 46%70%60% 2% 2% Unfavorable 3% 1% 2% 3%50% DK/Refused 10% 9% Havent heard enough40% Favorable30% 55% 51%20% 40% 41%10% 0% Barack Obama Mitt Romney Scott Walker Tom Barrett Source: Marquette Poll Page 15
    • Obama currently leads Romney overall and among Independents. Wisconsin Presidential Election100% 9%90% 2%80% 52% 48%70%60% 94% Obama50% 13% Undecided/Other 8% 89%40% Romney30%20% 40% 39%10% 2% 0% 4% Total Republican Independent Democrat Source: Marquette Poll Page 16
    • For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Vice President 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 17