WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120518

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief May 18, 2012 Page 1

WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debtIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Three key swing states, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina • How Obama did in 2008, how he’s doing now, and what unemployment in each state currently is. • The Goldman Sachs GLI Index is trending toward a global recession. Page 2

Weekly SummaryThe Republican lead on the generic congressional ballot continues to creep higher, aseconomic indicators continue to creep lower. Goldman Sach’s GLI index highlights someworrying trends this week.President Obama’s image remains split with nearly equal amounts of American’sapproving as disapproving of how he has handled the presidency. His economic ratingstill shows a majority of Americans disapprove.A look at several swing states this week shows that, while Obama is leading Romneynationally, he is underperforming in key states.• Obama trails his 2008 vote in Michigan by 12 points and Romney has taken an eight point lead in North Carolina. Page 3

Most Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country. Direction of the County100%90%80% 75%70% 63% 64% 63% 57% 60% 59%60%50%40% 36% 34% 33% 29% 29% 30%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Approve Disapprove Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4

Obama’s image has been split for months, since December. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 52% 49% 51% 51% 50% 49% 49% 48% 48% 48% 48%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 49% 48% Disapprove 48% 47% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5

The national debt has increased $18,956,230,001 this week. $15,730,482,445,159 U.S. National Debt$138,466 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,167 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6

The Republican edge on the generic congressional ballot crept even higher this week. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 44% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 41%40% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 41% 43%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7

Obama’s approval rating on handling the economy continues to be inverted, with 13% more who disapprove than approve. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 53% 50.0% 40.0% 40% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8

Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment dropped to 8.2% halfway through May. Gallup Data11.50%11.00%10.50%10.00% 9.50% 9.00% 8.50% 8.2% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% 6.0% April, 2012 4.0% 8.1% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Page 9

Obama has maintained a slight edge over Romney since January, though that lead has shrunk to a few points in recent weeks. The president remains under 50% however, a worrying sign for an incumbent. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47%50% 46% 45%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 10

Goldman Sach’s GLI index has developed a swirl pattern that looksto be headed toward a recession. Goldman Sach’s Global Leading Indicator Index is an index which attempts to highlight trends ahead of economic reports released by individual companies. It incorporates a variety of individual component reports including consumer confidences, manufacturing surveys, and several other components standardized to a common mean and then filters this data through a business cycle construction to in an attempt to provide a look at where the global economy is headed. Source: Goldman Sachs Page 11

Michigan is very competitive right now. While Obama carried the state by a healthy margin in 2008, he is trailing his 2008 position by12 points.Swing State Focus: Michigan100%90% Obama 2008 Unemployment80%70% 57% 8.5%60%50% 45% 40%40%30%20%10% 0% Romney Obama Source: Glengariff Group May 10-11, n=600 LV Page 12

In Florida, another state that Obama carried in 2008, the president trails his 2008 total by eight points.Swing State Focus: Florida100%90% Obama 2008 Unemployment80%70% 51% 9.0%60%50% 44% 43%40%30%20%10% 0% Romney Obama Source: Quinnipiac April 25-May 1, n=1,169 RV Page 13

North Carolina has seen Mitt Romney jump ahead of Obama, who narrowly carried the state in 2008.Swing State Focus: North Carolina100%90% Obama 2008 Unemployment80%70% 50% 9.7%60% 51%50% 43%40%30%20%10% 0% Romney Obama Source: Rasmussen May 14, 2012, n=500 likely voters Page 14

For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Vice President 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 15

WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120518

by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research on May 18, 2012

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