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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120420
 

WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120420

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    WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120420 WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120420 Presentation Transcript

    • WPA’s Weekly Political Brief April 20, 2012 Page 1
    • WPA’s Key Weekend ChartsAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debtIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Romney’s position coming out of the primary • Republican’s vice presidential preferences Page 2
    • Weekly SummaryObama’s approval has been split for months now, and most Americans continue to disapprove of hishandling of the economy. While Republicans and Democrats both decreased slightly on the genericballot, the Republican lead remains.Talk and worry about the damaging and lengthy Republican primary seems to have been overblownas Republicans rally around the standard bearer. • Romney has shown steady increases in his ballot position since the middle of February, while Obama has decreased and remains below 50%. • Gallup’s most recent data show Romney with a five point lead overall, and he receives as much support among Republicans as Obama does among Democrats. • Nearly a quarter of Republican voters would like to see Condoleeza Rice as the vice presidential candidate. Page 3
    • Americans remain pessimistic about the direction of the country. Direction of the County100%90%80% 75%70% 63% 64% 63% 63%60% 57%50%40% 36% 30% 32% 29% 29%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Approve Disapprove Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
    • Obama continues to maintain his split image. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 49% 52% 51% 51% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 49% 47% Disapprove 46% 47% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
    • Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment rate declined to 8.2%. Gallup Data11.50%11.00%10.50%10.00% April 9.50% 8.2% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% 6.0% March 4.0% 8.2% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted Page 6
    • The national debt continues to escalate. $15,674,585,589,156 U.S. National Debt$1,323,671,758,256 Federal Budget Deficit$138,231 Debt Per Taxpayer Source: USDebtclock.org Page 7
    • 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 4-Feb-09 4-Mar-09 4-Apr-09 4-May-09 4-Jun-09 4-Jul-09 4-Aug-09 4-Sep-09 4-Oct-09 4-Nov-09 4-Dec-09 4-Jan-10 4-Feb-10 4-Mar-10 4-Apr-10 4-May-10 4-Jun-10 Approve 4-Jul-10 4-Aug-10 4-Sep-10 4-Oct-10 4-Nov-10 4-Dec-10 Disapprove 4-Jan-11 Obama Economic Approval 4-Feb-11 4-Mar-11 continue to disapprove of his economic performance. 4-Apr-11 4-May-11 4-Jun-11 4-Jul-11 4-Aug-11 4-Sep-11 4-Oct-11 4-Nov-11 4-Dec-11 4-Jan-12 4-Feb-12Page 8 4-Mar-12 40% 54% 4-Apr-12 While Obama’s economic rating has improved slightly since last fall, most Americans Source: Pollster.com
    • Both parties saw their generic vote drop slightly this week, though Republicans continue to lead. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45%80% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 42%40% 45% 44% 42% 43% 42% 43% 41% 39%30%20%10% 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 9
    • Romney clearly has momentum as he moves out of the Republican primary. Source: Pollster.com Page 10
    • Gallup’s most recent poll shows Romney with a five point lead. Gallup data from a similar time period shows Romney receiving at least as much support from Republicans as Obama receives from Democrats. Support by Party Ballot Overall100% 6%90% 4%80% 39%70%60% Obama 16% 90% Barack Obama 43% Romney50% 48% Other/DK/Ref 90%40% Mitt Romney30% 45% Undecided20% /Other 9%10% 4% 6% 0% Repubicans Independents Democrats Source: Gallup 4/14-18 Page 11
    • Most Republicans are looking for a familiar face as their vice presidential candidate. Rick Santorum may have the recency bias working for him, but Condoleeza Rice is the top choice for Republicans. Vice Presidential Pick Rice 26%Santorum 21% Christie 14% Rubio 14% Ryan 8% Jindall 5%McDonnell 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: CNN/ORC 4/13-15 Page 12
    • For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Brian Smith Ryan Steusloff Vice President Vice President 405.640.9517 202.470.6300 bsmith@WPAResearch.com rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 13