Your SlideShare is downloading. ×

WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120413

434

Published on

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
434
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief April 13, 2012 Page 1
  • 2. WPA’s Key Weekend ChartsAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debtIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • U.S. vs. European debt • Obama vs. Romney in swing states: gender gap? • Obama’s performance on the three most important issues to women Page 2
  • 3. Weekly SummaryObama’s approval is ticking closer to 50%. Republicans maintain their lead on the genericcongressional ballot. Healthy majorities of Americans continue to disapprove of Obama’s economicperformance and the direction of the country.The U.S. debt burden continues to increase. • U.S. debt per taxpayer increased $179 since last week. • For all the highly publicized European debt problems, U.S. debt is substantially higher than that of the entire Eurozone plus the United Kingdom.While Obama may be opening up a gender gap in swing states, he is underperforming on the issueswomen in swing states care about. • Though majorities of both genders oppose the President’s health care law, women oppose Obama’s health care policies even more than men do, by 52% to 48%. • A majority of women think that gas prices will continue to increase as a result of Obama’s energy policy (52% vs. 18%). • More women believe that unemployment will increase as a result of Obama’s economic policies (44% vs. 42%). Page 3
  • 4. More American’s believe the country is going in the wrong direction than did last week. Direction of the County100%90%80% 75%70% 64% 64% 63% 63% 57% 60%60%50%40% 36% 34% 29% 29% 30% 30%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Approve Disapprove Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  • 5. Obama’s job approval continued to edge up slightly this week, climbing towards 50%. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 52% 49% 51% 51% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 49%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 46% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 48% 47% Disapprove 47% 47% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  • 6. Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment rate declined to 8.2%. Gallup Data11.50%11.00%10.50%10.00% April 2-8 9.50% 8.2% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% 6.0% March 4.0% 8.2% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted Page 6
  • 7. Every U.S. taxpayer owes $179 more to the debt than they did last week. $15,649,001,052,215 U.S. National Debt$1,321,921,429,564 Federal Budget Deficit$138,007 Debt Per Taxpayer Source: USDebtclock.org Page 7
  • 8. 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 0.0% 10.0% 4-Feb-09 4-Mar-09 4-Apr-09 4-May-09 4-Jun-09 4-Jul-09 4-Aug-09 4-Sep-09 4-Oct-09 4-Nov-09 4-Dec-09 4-Jan-10 4-Feb-10 4-Mar-10 4-Apr-10 4-May-10 4-Jun-10 Approve 4-Jul-10 4-Aug-10 4-Sep-10 4-Oct-10 4-Nov-10 Disapprove 4-Dec-10 4-Jan-11 Obama Economic Approval 4-Feb-11 4-Mar-11 continue to disapprove of his economic performance. 4-Apr-11 4-May-11 4-Jun-11 4-Jul-11 4-Aug-11 4-Sep-11 4-Oct-11 4-Nov-11 4-Dec-11 4-Jan-12 4-Feb-12Page 8 4-Mar-12 42% 52% While Obama’s economic rating has improved slightly since last fall, most American’s 4-Apr-12 Source: Pollster.com
  • 9. Republicans continue their slight lead on the generic ballot, which has indicated good years for them in the past. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42%30%20%10% 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 9
  • 10. For all the talk of a European debt crisis, American debt is substantially higher thanthat of the entire Eurozone, plus the United Kingdom. Total Debt $12.7 Trillion $15.6 Trillion 2 2.2 2.7 15.6 0.5 2.5 0.9 1.9European Debt U.S. Debt Source: John Hinderaker, Powerline Page 10
  • 11. USA Today/Gallup’s recent Swing States Poll argues that Obama is opening up a gender gap over Romney in swing states. However, the top three issues influencing women’s presidential votes are healthcare, gas prices, and unemployment… Swing States Women: Top 3issues influencing their presidential vote• Health care• Gas Prices 100% 54%• Unemployment 50% 47% 48% 36% 0% Men Women Obama Romney Source: USA TODAY/Gallup Swing State Poll March 20-26 n=933 registered voters Page 11
  • 12. Recent polling indicates that in the three areas women care about most, they disapprove of Obama’s performance. President Obamas Healthcare Law100%80%60% 48% 52% 45% 39%40%20% 0% Men Women Support Oppose Will the price of gasoline increase or decrease Will unemployment increase or decrease as a as a result of President Obamas energy policy? result of President Obamas economic policies?100% 100% 65% 52% 52% 42% 44%50% 23% 50% 33% 18% 0% 0% Men Women Men Women Decrease Increase Decrease Increase Source: Hill Poll March 19 n=1000 likely voters Hill Poll March 22 n=1000 likely voters Page 12
  • 13. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Brian Smith Ryan Steusloff Vice President Vice President 405.640.9517 202.470.6300 bsmith@WPAResearch.com rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 13

×