WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120330

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 30, 2012 Page 1

WPA’s Key Weekend ChartsAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday morning.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debtIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Data from WPA’s newly released poll on the Martin/Zimmerman incident. • Overview on the changes to the federal healthcare law and what Americans would like the Supreme Court to do. Page 2

Weekly SummaryWhile Americans remain unconvinced that their country is going in the right direction, torn onPresident Obama’s leadership, and continue to favor Republicans slightly on the generic ballot, theshooting last month of Trayvon Martin has dominated the news cycle this week.WPA conducted a poll on this issue, two days after CNN/ORC’s widely circulated poll and showsAmericans are increasingly torn on the issue. • In CNN’s poll, 73% of Americans believed Zimmerman should be arrested. • As further information has come out and Americans engaged the issue more, they are less certain. WPA’s poll, designed to match CNN’s, showed that only 48% of American’s believed Zimmerman should be arrested, a 25 point drop.Healthcare has faced majority or near majority opposition since changes were first proposed at thefederal level. • A plurality of Americans (42%) would like to see the Supreme Court throw the entire healthcare law out. Page 3

Americans are showing no signs of optimism and continue to believe that the country is going in the wrong direction. Direction of the County100%90%80% 75%70% 63% 63% 64% 60% 57%60%50%40%36% 34% 29% 29% 30%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Approve Disapprove Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4

Obama’s approval and disapproval continue to be tied below 50%. Obama Job Approval100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 49% 52% 51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48% 49% 47% 50% 40%46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 47% 49% Disapprove 47% 47% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5

Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment declined to 8.8% in mid-March. Gallup Data11.50%11.00%10.50%10.00% 9.50% 8.8% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% 6.0% February, 2012 4.0% 8.3% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted Page 6

Since last week the federal budget deficit has increased $1,790,248,191. $15,597,827,432,652 U.S. National Debt$1,318,420,229,450 Federal Budget Deficit$137,704 Debt Per Taxpayer Source: USDebtclock.org Page 7

Despite some stirrings that economic confidence may be coming back, Obama has a ways to go before a majority of American’s believe he’s doing well with the economy. Obama on the Economy100%90%80%70% 62% 58% 59% 59%60% 56% 50% 51%50% 38% 49%40% 46% 41% 38% 40%30% 36%20%10% 0% 39845 39934 40026 40118 40210 40299 40391 40483 40575 40664 40756 40848 40940 Approve Disapprove Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll Page 8

Republicans continue to maintain their lead on the generic ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100%90%80%70%60%50% 46% 43% 44% 45% 42% 44% 45%40% 42% 43% 42% 43% 44% 43% 41%30%20%10% 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Democrat Republican One Week Ago One Month Ago Republicans 45% 44% Democrats 43% 43% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 9

The last few days have moved public opinion significantly in favor of George Zimmerman.How much attention have you paid to the fatal shooting in Based on what you have read or heard about this incident,Florida last month of a teenager named Trayvon Martin by a do you think the police should or should not arrest Georgeneighborhood watch volunteer named George Zimmerman? Zimmerman for shooting Trayvon Martin?100% 100% 7% 11%90% 19% 90% 16% 13%80% 1% 80% 16% 13%70% 70% 1% 36%60% 37% Not much 60% Should not50% 32% Only a little 50% No Unsure/DK/Ref40% 40% opinion/Unsure Some 73% Should30% 30% A great deal 48%20% 42% 20% 35%10% 10% 0% 0% CNN WPA CNN WPA 3/24-3/25 3/27-3/28 3/24-3/25 3/27-3/28 Source: CNN ORC March 24-25, n=1,014 adults WPA March 27-28, n=811 adults Page 10

The initial media coverage of this incident clearly biased the way Americans view the issue. Those who have seen the most information about the incident have the most antagonistic attitudes toward George Zimmerman. How much attention have you paid to the fatal shooting in Florida last month of a teenager named Trayvon Martin by a neighborhood watch volunteer named George Zimmerman?100% 14% 14%90% 20%80%70% 27% 34%60% 58%50% Should not40% No opinion/Unsure Should30% 59% 47%20% 29%10% 0% Great Deal Some Only a little/not much Attention Paid Source: WPA March 27-28, n=811 adults Page 11

The federal changes to the healthcare system have almost always faced opposition from 50% of Americans. 3/10/2012: Overall, do you support or oppose the federal law making changes to the health care system? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 1/16/2012 and prior: Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the changes to the health care system that have been enacted by (Congress) or and (the Obama administration)?100%90%80%70%60% 52% 50% 52% 50% 49% 49% 50% 48%50% 44%40%45% 48% 41%46% 46% 47% 43% 45% 41%30%20%10% 0% 10/17/2010 11/17/2009 1/17/2010 2/17/2010 3/17/2010 4/17/2010 5/17/2010 6/17/2010 7/17/2010 8/17/2010 9/17/2010 11/17/2011 12/17/2009 12/17/2011 12/17/2010 10/17/2009 11/17/2010 10/17/2011 8/17/2009 9/17/2009 1/17/2011 2/17/2011 3/17/2011 4/17/2011 5/17/2011 6/17/2011 7/17/2011 8/17/2011 9/17/2011 1/17/2012 2/17/2012 Support Oppose Source: Washington Post-ABC News March 7-10, n=1,003 adults Page 12

A plurality of Americans would like to see the entire law thrown out by the Supreme Court.The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments about the health care law later thismonth. Of these three options, which would you prefer to have the Supreme Court do? Uphold the entire law 26%Throw the entire law out 42% Throw out part of the law No opinion 25% 7% Source: Washington Post-ABC News March 7-10, n=1,003 adults Page 13

For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Brian Smith Ryan Steusloff Vice President Vice President 405.640.9517 202.470.6300 bsmith@WPAResearch.com rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 14

WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120330

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