WPA’s Weekly Political Brief       March 22, 2012                               Page 1
WPA’s Key Weekend ChartsAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenviro...
Weekly SummaryUnlike 2009 and 2010, voters see this economy as being owned by Obama. While voters showedlittle correlation...
American’s continue to think their country is going in the wrong                        direction.                        ...
Obama’s approval remains split this week.                                           Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60%    ...
Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment declined to 8.8% in mid-March.                                 Gallup Data11.50%11.00%10....
Each taxpayer’s share of the debt increased $516 since last week. $15,571,660,178,261                                     ...
Most American’s feel that President Obama is not handling the                      economy very well.                     ...
After weeks spent with a near tie, Republicans have taken a slight                    edge on the generic ballot.         ...
President Obama’s job approval shows a very strong correlation with overall                 economic confidence in 2012. U...
Republican voters have shown themselves to be unsatisfied with incumbents in key               races across the country. T...
“Mormon” is no longer the top word associated with Mitt Romney. Unfortunately “no”and “rich” have replaced it among Americ...
For additional information about this or any other of our services,                         please feel free to contact:  ...
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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120322

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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120322

  1. 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 22, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Key Weekend ChartsAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday morning.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debtIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Why voters see this economy as Obama’s • Top word association with the Republican Presidential candidates • Key races where Republicans are restless Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly SummaryUnlike 2009 and 2010, voters see this economy as being owned by Obama. While voters showedlittle correlation between Obama’s approval rating and their confidence in the economy early in theadministration, there is strong correlation now (.88), indicating that Obama will be judged based onthe performance of the economy over the next year.• Increasing gas prices, and the daily visual reminder of the high cost of living that they represent, will not help him.Mitt Romney’s campaign can be grateful that “Mormon” is no longer the top word American’sassociate with him. Unfortunately “no” and “rich” have replaced it.This week also saw the most recent of several incumbent losses or near losses in Republicanprimaries.• Adam Kinzinger’s defeat of Don Manzullo was less about Tea Party and establishment and more about a long-serving older incumbent versus a fresh young face.• This kind of frustration on the part of Republican voters has been evident in the Republican primary as well, with nearly half the electorate refusing to vote for the “next in line” candidate.How this dissatisfaction with incumbents will play out in November remains to be seen. Page 3
  4. 4. American’s continue to think their country is going in the wrong direction. Direction of the County100%90%80% 75%70% 64% 63% 63% 61% 57%60%50%40% 36% 31% 29% 29% 30%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Approve Disapprove Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  5. 5. Obama’s approval remains split this week. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 49% 52% 51% 47%50%40% 46% 47% 42% 44% 43%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 47% 49% Disapprove 47% 47% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment declined to 8.8% in mid-March. Gallup Data11.50%11.00%10.50%10.00% 9.50% 8.8% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% National Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% February, 2012 4.0% 8.3% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted Page 6
  7. 7. Each taxpayer’s share of the debt increased $516 since last week. $15,571,660,178,261 U.S. National Debt$1,316,629,981,259 Federal Budget Deficit$137,516 Debt Per Taxpayer Source: USDebtclock.org Page 7
  8. 8. Most American’s feel that President Obama is not handling the economy very well. Obama on the Economy100%90%80%70% 62% 58% 59% 59%60% 56% 50% 51%50% 38% 49%40% 46% 41% 38% 40%30% 36%20%10% 0% Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 Approve Disapprove Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll Page 8
  9. 9. After weeks spent with a near tie, Republicans have taken a slight edge on the generic ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100%90%80%70%60%50% 46% 43% 44% 43% 45% 42% 43%40% 45% 41% 42% 43% 42% 44% 43%30%20%10% 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Democrat Republican One Week Ago One Month Ago Republicans 44% 44% Democrats 43% 43% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 9
  10. 10. President Obama’s job approval shows a very strong correlation with overall economic confidence in 2012. Unlike in 2009 and 2010, voters appear to feel the President owns this economy now. Statistical Relationship Between Presidential Job Approval and GallupEconomic Confidence Index Year Correlation 2001 .71 2002 .03 2003 .68 2004 .79 2005 .40 2006 .37 2007 .11 2008 .51 Rising gas prices will only 2009 .03 reinforce American’s 2010 .11 negative associations with the economic consequences 2011 .39 of the Administration’s 2012 .88 policies. Source: Gallup, Image © Clay Bennett Page 10
  11. 11. Republican voters have shown themselves to be unsatisfied with incumbents in key races across the country. This restlessness has shown itself nationally in the Presidential primary and will manifest again in the general election.Don Manzullo Adam Kinzinger 44% 56%Jean Schmidt Brad Wenstrup 43% 49% Source: Gallup Page 11
  12. 12. “Mormon” is no longer the top word associated with Mitt Romney. Unfortunately “no”and “rich” have replaced it among Americans overall. Romney Gingrich • No • Old • Rich • No • Good • Idiot • Mormon • Untrustworthy • Moderate • Dislike • Business • Flip flop • Smart • Intelligent Santorum Paul • Conservative • No • No • Old • Good • Libertarian • Ok • Honest • Crazy • Crazy • Religious • Too conservative • Good • Too old Source: Washington Post-Pew Research Center Page 12
  13. 13. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Brian Smith Ryan Steusloff Vice President Vice President 405.640.9517 202.470.6300 bsmith@WPAResearch.com rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 13
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