WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120316
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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120316

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    WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120316 WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120316 Presentation Transcript

    • WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 16, 2012 Page 1
    • WPA’s Key Weekend ChartsAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday morning.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debtIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Romney and potential trouble with evangelical and lower income Republican voters • Santorum’s headline grabbing wins aren’t bringing him closer to victory • Potential trouble Romney may face in sealing victory before the convention • Texas is an area that may give Romney a challenge. Page 2
    • Weekly SummaryRomney’s underperformance among lower income and evangelical Republicans is real, but notnecessarily overwhelming. While the campaign needs to improve their performance among thesegroups, they are not losing them in incredible numbers.While Santorum is grabbing headlines with victories in Mississippi and Alabama, headlines are allhe’s winning. • Romney kept even with Santorum’s gains in Mississippi and Alabama (9 delegates) by sweeping American Samoa (9 delegates).However, while Romney has won 50% of the delegates so far, he has to continue to win 50% ormore of the remainder to lock up the nomination before the convention. A misstep in Texas couldradically alter how the convention plays out. Page 3
    • American’s are dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Direction of the County100%90%80% 75%70% 64% 63% 63% 61% 57%60%50%40% 36% 31% 29% 29% 30%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Approve Disapprove Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
    • Obama’s approval has ticked downward slightly this week. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 49% 51% 47%50% 42% 52%40% 46% 47% 44% 43%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 49% 49% Disapprove 47% 47% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
    • Unemployment stayed even with its January position at 8.3%. Gallup Data11.50%11.00% 10.3%10.50% 10.1%10.00% 9.1% 9.50% 9.00% 8.50% 8.8% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% National Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% February, 2012 4.0% 8.3% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted Page 6
    • The national debt has increased $30,478,962,629 since last week. $15,507,410,777,829 U.S. National Debt$1,314,955,736,200 Federal Budget Deficit$137,000 Debt Per Taxpayer Source: USDebtclock.org Page 7
    • Obama’s brief economic boost last week was fleeting. Obama on the Economy100%90%80%70% 62% 58% 59% 59%60% 56% 50% 51%50% 38% 49%40% 46% 41% 38% 40%30% 36%20%10% 0% 39845 39934 40026 40118 40210 40299 40391 40483 40575 40664 40756 40848 40940 Approve Disapprove Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll Page 8
    • Democrats have a slight edge on the generic ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100%90%80%70%60%50% 46% 43% 44% 45% 44% 44% 42%40% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Democrat Republican One Week Ago One Month Ago Republicans 44% 44% Democrats 43% 43% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 9
    • While Obama and Romney have been very close since January, Obama retains a slight edge. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 48%50%40% 45% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% January February March Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics (monthly average) Page 10
    • While state to state performance varies, Romney is underperforming slightly among low income voters. IA NH SC FL NV AZ MI GA OH TN OK MA VT AL MSDifference -9% -8% -3% -2% -11% -4% -0% -4% -4% -4% -9% -2% -2% -3% -3% Romney Under $50K Vote Percentage by State100%90%80% 72%70%60% 50% 47%50% 46% 41% 39% 38% 40%40% 70% 30%30% 25% 28% 26% 28% 28% 29%20% 44% 39% 43% 34% 38% 31% 26% 27%10% 25% 22% 24% 16% 19% 0% Under $50K Romney Vote Total Romney Vote % Source: Exit Polling Page 11
    • Romney’s share of the evangelical vote lags slightly behind his overall totals in most races so far. IA NH SC FL NV AZ MI GA OH TN OK MA VT AL MSDifference -11% -8% -7% -10% -7% -11% -6% -7% -8% -4% -1% -15% -1% -2% -1% Romney Evangelical Vote Percentage by State100%90%80% 72%70%60% 50%50% 46% 47% 39% 41% 38% 40%40% 28% 28% 28% 29% 30%30% 25% 26% 57%20% 43% 39% 31% 36% 36% 35% 30% 24% 27% 27% 29%10% 21% 19% 14% 0% Evangelical Romney Vote % Total Romney Vote % Source: Exit Polling Page 12
    • While Santorum is winning states, he’s not gaining delegates proportionally enough to overtake Romney. Everything Santorum gained in winning Mississippi and Alabama was offset by Romney’s win in American Samoa. Delegate CountsCandidate DelegatesRomney 495Santorum 234Gingrich 142Paul 64 Romney Santorum Gingrich Candidate Mississippi Alabama American SamoaRomney 12 11 9Santorum 13 19 0Romney Difference -1 -8 +9 Page 13
    • While Santorum is only hoping to make it to the convention, Romney will need to deliver a stronger performance to ensure that he wins before the August convention. 1,289 Delegates LeftMost DelegatesLeast Awarded So Far Candidate Needed to Win % To Win Candidate Awarded so far Romney 649 50% Romney 50% Santorum 18% Santorum 910 71% Page 14
    • Texas may pose a challenge to Romney as Santorum leads in Texas by 8 points. GOP Primary in Texas100%90%80%70%60%50%40% 35%30% 27% 20%20%10% 8% 0% Total Romney Total Santorum Total Gingrich Total Paul Source: WPA Texas Statewide 3/11-13/2012, n=750 GOP Primary Voters Page 15
    • For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Brian Smith Ryan Steusloff Vice President Vice President 405.640.9517 202.470.6300 bsmith@WPAResearch.com rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 16