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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120309



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  • 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 9, 2012 Page 1
  • 2. WPA’s Key Weekend ChartsAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday morning.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debtIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Super Tuesday Overview • Remaining states available • A look at the problems facing Santorum and Gingrich. Page 2
  • 3. Weekly SummaryWhile Romney did not win Super Tuesday decisively, he won enough to establish a commandingposition over Santorum and Gingrich, taking 208 delegates to Santorum’s 84 and Gingrich’s 68. • Romney has more than double Santorum or Gingrich’s delegate counts.The issue that Santorum and Gingrich face is now one of numbers; they can’t just win, they need towin big. By far the easiest place to do this is in winner-take-all states. But even here, Romneyprobably has enough of an edge. • Only Wisconsin, with 42 delegates has a reasonable chance of going to Santorum. • While anything can happen, Utah (40), New Jersey (50), and a majority of California (172) are likely Romney wins.This would leave only proportional delegate states to make up the difference and overtakingRomney in those states would require a change in the political landscape. The slow and steadynumbers game is finally working for Romney.Meanwhile Obama is seeing a bump in his economic rating, though hasn’t yet translated into overallsupport. Page 3
  • 4. American satisfaction with the direction of the country remains low. Direction of the County100%90%80% 75%70% 63% 64% 63% 62% 57%60%50%40% 36% 32% 29% 29% 30%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Approve Disapprove Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  • 5. Job approval for Obama remains just under 50%, and has been stable for the last few months. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 49% 51% 49%50% 42% 52%40% 46% 47% 44% 43%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 49% 49% Disapprove 47% 47% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  • 6. Unemployment stayed even with its January position at 8.3%. Gallup Data11.50%11.00% 10.3%10.50% 10.1%10.00% 9.1% 9.50% 9.00% 8.50% 8.8% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% National Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% February, 2012 4.0% 8.3% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted Page 6
  • 7. Obama’s rating on the economy has improved with the stirrings of economic recovery. Obama on the Economy100%90%80%70% 63% 58% 58% 60%60% 52% 50%50% 41% 39% 48%40% 35% 36% 44%30%20%10% 0% 4/20/2009 10/5/2009 1/17/2010 5/11/2010 9/13/2010 1/10/2011 6/20/2011 12/12/2011 Approve Disapprove Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll Page 7
  • 8. Democrats maintain their slight edge on the generic ballot, but neither party is showing momentum. Generic Congressional Ballot100%90%80%70%60%50% 46% 43% 44% 44% 42% 43%40% 45% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42%30%20%10% 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Democrat Republican One Week Ago One Month Ago Republicans 43% 44% Democrats 44% 45% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 8
  • 9. Each citizen’s share of the debt has increased $191 since last week. $15,476,931,815,200 U.S. National Debt $136,739 Debt Per Taxpayer$49,421 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 9
  • 10. While he didn’t deliver a knockout punch, Romney did take over 50% of the delegates available on Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday Wins Romney Santorum Gingrich Super TuesdayCandidate DelegatesRomney 208Santorum 84Gingrich 68Paul 21 Page 10
  • 11. After Super Tuesday the problem for Gingrich and Santorum becomes more stark, with 34% of the available delegates already accounted for. Already Voted Early to Mid March Late March to Early April Late April Early May Later Candidate DelegatesRomney 404Santorum 161Gingrich 105Paul 61 Page 11
  • 12. Proportional wins like Oklahoma, Tennessee and North Dakota won’t help Santorum catch up, and Romney is likely to take a majority of the remaining winner-take-all states. We are approaching or at the point where Romney’s slow aggregation of delegates will be insurmountable. Santorum Wins Winner-Take-All States Remaining30 25252015 14 13 11 1010 7 5 State Likely Romney Utah, California*, New Jersey 0 Oklahoma Tennessee North Dakota Likely Santorum Wisconsin Maryland, Delaware, District Santorum Romney Either Way of Columbia *Winner-take-all by CD, Romney has been leading statewide Page 12
  • 13. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Brian Smith Ryan Steusloff Vice President Vice President 405.640.9517 202.470.6300 bsmith@WPAResearch.com rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 13