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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120302
 

WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120302

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    WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120302 WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120302 Presentation Transcript

    • WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 1, 2012 Page 1
    • WPA’s Key Weekend ChartsAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday morning.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debtIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Trends in the Republican Primary Election • 2012 Voter Enthusiasm Gap • American’s opinions on taxing the rich Page 2
    • Weekly SummaryThe Republican primary election refuses to stabilize, reflecting the indecision of voters across theRepublican spectrum. • After wins in Michigan and Arizona Romney has returned to the top, supplanting Santorum going into Super Tuesday.Despite the lengthy primary race, Republicans are showing more enthusiasm for voting in 2012. • Republicans have created an eight point enthusiasm gap. • Republican enthusiasm, however, is below the 79% the Democrats had in February of 2008.A recent Hill poll has shown how important question wording is can be. While Americans generallyfeel the wealthy should pay more taxes, they also define “wealthy” as those who make more moneythan they do, irrespective of their actual income. In fact, when asked what exact percentage of theirincome the wealthy should pay, the vast majority of Americans settle on a number substantially lessthan the current top income rate. Page 3
    • Americans are unsatisfied with the direction of the country. Direction of County100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 62% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 32% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Right Direction Wrong Direction Source: Reuters/Ipsos National Poll Page 4
    • Obama’s job approval remains steady from last week and is up slightly compared to the end of January. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 49% 52% 51% 49%50%40% 46% 47% 42% 44% 43%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 49% 46% Disapprove 47% 48% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
    • Disappointing numbers on gas prices and Gallup’s data indicate conflict with Thursday’s drop in unemployment claims. March 9th will hopefully shed some light on a muddled picture. Gallup Data11.50%11.00%10.50%10.00% 9.50% 10.3% 9.0% 9.00% 8.3% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% National Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% January, 2012 8.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted Page 6
    • Despite glimmers of hope in the economy, Obama’s economic rating has not improved. Obama on the Economy100%90%80%70% 62% 58% 59%60% 53% 50% 51%50% 38% 49%40% 46% 44% 40% 36%30%20%10% 0% Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 Approve Disapprove Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll Page 7
    • Democrats and Republicans remain tied on the generic ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100%90%80%70%60%50% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 43%40% 45% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43%30%20%10% 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Democrat Republican One Week Ago One Month Ago Republicans 43% 43% Democrats 43% 45% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 8
    • National debt has risen more than $27,027,285,597 since last week. $15,415,071,315,156 U.S. National Debt$1,259,339,455,465 Total U.S. Federal Deficit$49,230 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 9
    • The race for the Republican nomination continues its unpredictable trend, with Romney’s success in Arizona and Michigan boosting him back on top nationally going into the potentially decisive Super Tuesday. Select Points During the Republican Nomination60%50%40% 33% 34% 35% 31%30% 30% 27% 28% 18%20% 16% 15% 15% 15%10% 14% 13% 12% 11%0% Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul Source: Real Clear Politics Page 10
    • Of the remaining delegates, 19% will be awarded on Super Tuesday. Recent public polling suggest we may see another split decision between Romney and Santorum causing the nomination fight to continue. Public Polling Estimates Likely Likely Likely Santorum Gingrich RomneyOklahoma Georgia Mass.Ohio Virginia VermontSuper Tuesday Delegate Counts Already Voted Super Tuesday Other North State Georgia Ohio Tennessee Virginia Oklahoma Mass. Idaho Dakota Alaska Vermont TOTAL Delegate 76 66 58 49 43 41 32 28 27 17 437 Page 11
    • Despite a brutal drawn-out primary campaign, Republicans are distinctly more excited than Democrats about voting in 2012. % More Enthusiastic About Voting Than Usual100%90%80%70% 58%60% 53% 49%50%40% 45% 44% 45%30%20%10% 0% Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Republican/Lean Republican Democrat/Lean Democrat Source: Gallup Page 12
    • Ostensibly, a majority of Americans support increasing taxes on the wealthy.In order to lower the nations budget deficit, do you think taxes should be increased on households earning $250,000 a year or more or should the government address the budget deficit without increasing taxes on those households? Dont increase taxes 34% Increase taxes 63% DK/NA 3% Source: NYT/CBS News, August 2-3, n=960 Page 13
    • However, most Americans define “wealthy” as those who are making more than they are. Income Definition ofIncome Percentile “Wealthy” 1% $50,000 25% $200,000 50% (Median) $250,000 75% $500,000 99% $10 billion Source: Reason-Rupe, August 9-18, n=1200 Page 14
    • In fact when asked what rate the wealthy should be taxed at, the majority of Americans suggest a rate that is actually lower than the current one. Most Appropriate Top Tax Rate for Families earning $250,000 or more? More than 45% Tax Not sure Rate 5% 40% Tax Rate 2% 4% Less than 20% Tax Rate 21%35% Tax Rate 13% 30% Tax Rate 20% Tax Rate 14% 17% 25% Tax Rate 23% Source: The Hill/Pulse Opinion, February 23, n=1000 Page 15
    • For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Brian Smith Ryan Steusloff Vice President Vice President 405.640.9517 202.470.6300 bsmith@WPAResearch.com rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 16