WPA's Weekly Political Brief 1200816
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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 1200816

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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 1200816 WPA's Weekly Political Brief 1200816 Presentation Transcript

  • WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 17, 2012 Page 1
  • WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environmentas we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • A look Paul Ryan’s image boost after he became the Republican VP nominee. • The Presidential ballot in Wisconsin before and after Paul Ryan is announced as VP nominee. • Older American’s views on the Ryan budget plan and the Obama budget plan. • The Republican advantage in voter engagement. • Registration rates in swing states. • The Presidential ballot in swing states. Page 2
  • Weekly Summary• Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate this week generated excitement among Republicans (pg. 4). o Ryan’s favorability among Republicans and Independents increased by double digits (14% and 20%) after the announcement.• By adding Paul Ryan to the ticket, the presidential ballot in Wisconsin shifted 4% in Romney’s favor (pg. 5). o In a state that Obama won by 14% in 2008, Romney now leads by 1%.• Older Americans believe that Paul Ryan’s plan is the best to deal with America’s rapidly expanding federal budget deficit (pg. 9). o This is in contrast with conventional wisdom that older Americans are weary of Ryan’s budget plan.• Republicans have a 13% advantage among those voters who say they have given “quite a lot” of thought about the election (pg. 11). o This gap is higher than in recent presidential years and suggests that Republicans will have a higher turnout rate than Democrats in November. o Americans giving “quite a lot” of thought to the election decreased 6% from 2008.• Democratic registration rates fell in 7 of the 8 swing state that Obama won in 2008 (pg. 12). o This is troubling for Obama because it suggests that Democrats will have a lower turnout in crucial swing states in 2012.• Romney leads Obama in 3 of the 4 key swing states (pg. 16). o Maintaining these ballot advantages will be critical to Romney’s victory in November. Page 3
  • Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate generated excitement among Republicans. Ryan’s favorability among Republicans and Independents increased by double digits after the announcement. Paul Ryan Image before and after VP Announcement among Key Groups100%90%80%70% 62%60%50% 48% 38% 39%40% 33% 32% 32%30% 28% 23% 19%20% 14% 13%10% 0% All - Before All - After GOP - Before GOP - After Ind - Before Ind - After Favorable Unfavorable Source: Washington Post-ABC News Poll Conducted August 8-12, 2012 Page 4
  • By adding Paul Ryan to the ticket, the presidential ballot in Wisconsin shifted 4% in Romney’s favor. In a state that Obama won by 14% in 2008, Romney now leads by 1%. Presidential Ballot in Wisconsin before and after Romney chose Ryan as his Running Mate100%90%80%70%60% 49% 48% 47%50% 46%40%30%20%10% 0% 25-Jul 15-Aug Romney/Ryan Obama/Biden Source: Rasmussen Reports Page 5
  • Only 30% of Americans continue to feel as though the nation is on the right track. Direction of the Country100%90% 77% 74%80%70% 66% 64% 63%64% 66% 64% 62% 64% 61% 62% 62%60% 47%50% 2010 Election40% 31% 31% 30% 31% 29% 27% 29% 28% 27% 30% 32%30%30% 17% 19%20%10% 0% Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jan-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 May-12 Jul-12 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 32% 17% Wrong Track 62% 77% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 6
  • Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 15th consecutive month. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 49% 52% 51% 52% 51% 50% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 49% 49% 50%50%40% 46% 42% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 46% 47% 44% 43% 44% 44% 48%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 46% 46% Disapprove 50% 49% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 7
  • The national debt steadily approaches $16 Trillion. $15,972,772,894,158 U.S. National Debt $139,914 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,844 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 8
  • Older Americans believe that Paul Ryan’s plan is the best to deal with the US’ rapidly expanding federal budget deficit. This is in contrast to the conventional wisdom that older Americans are weary of Ryan’s budget plan. Best Plan to deal with Federal Best Plan to deal with Federal Budget Deficit among Americans Budget Deficit among Americans 50-64 years old 65+ years old100% 100%90% 90%80% 80%70% 70%60% 60%50% 47% 50% 48% 41% 42%40% 40%30% 30%20% 20%10% 10% 0% 0% Republican/Ryan Plan Democratic/Obama Plan Republican/Ryan Plan Democratic/Obama Plan Source: Gallup Conducted: April 20-23, 2011. Page 9
  • Republicans continue to maintain a 2% lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% 49% seats R+7 47% D+37 54% seats D+2953% seats R+69 seats 52% 45%80% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 43% 44%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 41% 41% 42% 41%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 10
  • Republicans have a 13% advantage among those voters who say they have given “quite a lot “of thought about the election. This gap is higher than in recent presidential years and suggests that Republicans will have a higher turnout rate than Democrats in November.. Americans giving “quite a lot” of thought to the election decreased 6% from 2008. Voter Engagement with the upcoming Presidential Election100% Americans Giving "Quite a Lot" of Thought to90% the Election, July of Presidential Election Years 100%80% 80% 69% 70% 64% 74% 60% 42%70% 40% 61% 20%60% 0% 2000 2004 2008 201250%40% 30%30% 21%20%10% 5% 3% 3% 4% 0% Quite a lot Some Only a little None Republicans Democrats Source: Gallup Conducted: July 19-22, 2012. Page 11
  • Democratic registration rates fell in 7 of 8 swing states that Obama won in 2008. This is troubling for Obama because it suggests that democrats will have a lower turnout in 2012. Change in Voter Registration in 8 Swing States from 2008-2012100%80%60%40%20% 5.30%3% 6.40% 0.50% 2.30% 0% -4.90% -0.70% -1.40% -2.30%-0.70% -4.10% -5.10% -0.70% -7.30% -7.40% -5.20% -9.50%-20% -19.70%-40% Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada New New Mexico North Carolina Pennsylvania 8 State Total Hampshire Source: Third Way Republicans Democrats Page 12
  • Less than 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 54% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 30.0% 38% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 13
  • Job creation continues to underperform what is necessary to begin real economic recovery. Jobs Created by Month200,000 163,000 125,000 =150,000 Number of new jobs needed to100,000 87,000 keep pace with 64,000 population growth 50,000 0 May June July National Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% July 2012 6.0% 8.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 14
  • The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final three months of the election cycle. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 47%50% 46% 46% 45% 47% 46% 46%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 44% 44% 45% 44% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 15
  • Romney leads Obama in 3 of the 4 key swing states. Maintaining these ballot advantages will be critical to Romney’s victory in November. Presidential Ballot in Swing States100%90%80%70%60% 49% 48% 48% 47% 47%50% 46% 45% 46% 44% 46%40%30%20%10% 0% Colorado Virginia Ohio Florida 12 State Total* Romney Obama *States include: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Source: Purple Strategies New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Conducted August 13-14 Page 16
  • For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 17