WPA's Weekly Political Brief

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WPA's Weekly Political Brief

  1. 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 31, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environmentas we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • The Public’s Economic Outlook • The change in median household incomes nationwide and among key groups • Changes in Party Identification Among Key Groups from 2008 to 2012 Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly Summary• The public has a very negative view of the current state of the economy and is feeling hurt by the previous four years (pg. 9). o More Americans feel as though the economy is moving toward or in a recession than those who feel it is heading in the right direction. o Nearly twice as many Americans feel worse off now compared to 2008 than those who feel better off.• Median Household Incomes dropped off significantly from the end of the recession in June 2009 (pg. 10-11). o Incomes have fallen more during the recovery than during the actual recession. o Many key groups are feeling the effects, including the self-employed.• White voter identification has shifted in Republicans’ favor among key groups (pg. 14). o Obama’s appeal with white voters in 2008, who were key to his victory, are increasingly identifying as Republicans. Page 3
  4. 4. More than 60% of the nation feels as though the country is on the wrong track. Direction of the Country100%90% 77% 74%80%70% 66% 64% 66%64% 63% 62% 63% 64% 61% 62%60% 62% 47%50% 2010 Election40% 31% 31% 30% 31% 30% 31% 29% 27%29% 28%27%30% 17% 19% 32%20%10% 0% Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jan-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jul-12 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 32% 17% Wrong Track 62% 77% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  5. 5. Obama’s job approval remains below 50% with less than 3 months until the election. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 49% 52% 51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 49% 50% 49% 49%50%40% 46% 47% 47% 47% 46% 48% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46% 47% 48%30%20%10% 0% Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 46% 46% Disapprove 50% 49% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. The national debt will pass $16 Trillion long before the election. $15,992,569, 102,544 U.S. National Debt $139,985 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,891 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
  7. 7. Republicans continue to hold a 2-point lead over Democrats in the Generic Congressional Ballot with just over two months remaining.100% Generic Congressional Ballot Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100%80% R+7 seats 49% 54% D+29 seats 47% D+37 seats 53% R+69 seats 52% 46% 43% 45% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 43% 44%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 41% 41% 42% 41%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
  8. 8. A majority of Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 53% 60.0% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 30.0% 39% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
  9. 9. Americans have serious concerns about the economy. More Americans feel as though the Nation is either in, or heading into a recession and nearly twice as many people feel like they are worse off than better off since 2008. Is the Nation Heading toward a Personal Economic Change Since Recession? 2008 100%100% 90%90%80% 80% 39% 47% Headed into 70%70% Recession/Already Worse Off in a Recession 60%60% Unsure About the50% 50% 11% Same40% 40% 40% Better Off Not Headed into a30% recession 30%20% 42% 20%10% 10% 20% 0% 0% Source: CBS News Poll, August 22-26 Page 9
  10. 10. An analysis of the recession from Dec 2007 to June 2009 and the three followingyears showed that wages median household income actual fell further during theeconomic recovery than during the recession. Source: Washington Post and Sentier Research Page 10
  11. 11. Breaking down the changes in income from June 2009 to June 2012 shows that many keep groups have seen their incomes drop considerably, including those who are self-employed dropping 9.4%. Change in Median Household Income June 2009 to June 201215.0%10.0% 6.5% 5.0% 2.8% 0.0% -5.0% -4.1% -3.8% -4.8% -4.5%-10.0% -8.9% -9.4% -9.7% -11.0%-15.0% Source: Washington Post and Sentier Research Page 11
  12. 12. Unemployment has remained above 8% for more than 40 consecutive months. Jobs Created by Month200,000 163,000 125,000 =150,000 Number of new jobs needed to100,000 87,000 keep pace with 64,000 population growth 50,000 0 May June July National Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% July 2012 6.0% 8.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 12
  13. 13. President Obama has remained below 50% against Mitt Romney for all of 2012 Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 47% 47% 47%50% 46% 46% 45% 47% 46% 47%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 45% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44% 46% 43% 43% 44% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug 15-Aug 30-Aug Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 13
  14. 14. White voter identification has shifted in Republicans’ favor among key groups. Obama’s appeal with white voters in 2008, who were key to his victory, are increasingly identifying as Republicans. Party Identification among White Party Identification among White Males Females100% 100%80% 80% 51% 57%60% 60% 49% 47%40% 40% 40% 35% 42% 44%20% 20% 0% 0% 2008 2012 2008 2012 Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Party Identification among Whites Party Identification among Whites 18-29 years old 65+ years old100% 100%80% 80% 49% 54%60% 46% 60% 46%40% 40% 42% 45% 44% 38%20% 20% 0% 0% 2008 2012 2008 2012 Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Source: Pew Research Center Page 14
  15. 15. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 15

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