WPA's Key Weekend Charts 120210
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WPA's Key Weekend Charts 120210 WPA's Key Weekend Charts 120210 Presentation Transcript

  • WPA’s Key Weekend Charts February 10, 2012 Page 1
  • WPA’s Key Weekend ChartsAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday morning.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • The latest on the Presidential raceIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Delegate counts for the Republican Primary (10-11) • Comparison of recovery to potential GDP between the 1980’s recovery and today (12-14) Page 2
  • Weekly SummaryThe two dominant political issues of the week were Senator Rick Santorum’s victories in theMidwest and White House spin about economic recovery. Although voters continue to feel poorlyabout Obama’s performance on the economy , with 53% disapproving, news of a 0.2% drop in theunemployment rate is being touted as “recovery”. On that note: • January saw 1.2 million people stop looking for work, the largest drop in the percentage of people to leave the workforce in 30 years. • If unemployment were calculated to include the 2.8 million people who want to work but have stopped looking it would be 9.9%. • Stanford professor and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow in Economics John Taylor’s analysis of the economic recovery in the 1980’s compared to today shows that real GDP is lagging far below potential GDP. • There has been no substantive shift in the employment to population ratio, showing that despite the change in unemployment rate, the percentage of working age population is not increasing.The GOP primary battle shows no signs of slowing down as Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich battlefor the not-Romney vote. Super Tuesday will hopefully clarify the situation and allow Republicans torefocus on defeating Obama, not each other. Page 3
  • Most Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country. Direction of County100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 62% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 32% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Right Direction Wrong Direction Source: Reuters/Ipsos National Poll Page 4
  • Obama is seeing a slight recovery in his approval. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 51% 52% 49% 49%50% 52% 42%40% 46% 48% 44% 43%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Approve Disapprove Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  • Unemployment dropped from 8.5% to 8.3% in January. However January also saw 1.2 million people leave the workforce, the largest drop in 30 years. If the rate were calculated to include the 2.8 million people who wanted work but have stopped looking it would be 9.9%. National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% January, 2012 8.0% 8.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Washington Post Page 6
  • Most Americans are unhappy with Obama’s performance on the economy. Obama on the Economy100%90%80%70% 62% 58% 59%60% 53% 50% 51%50% 38% 49%40% 46% 44% 40% 36%30%20%10% 0% Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 Approve Disapprove Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll Page 7
  • The generic ballot continues to be equal or near equal. Generic Congressional Ballot100%90%80%70%60%50% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44%40% 45% 44% 41% 42% 43% 42%30%20%10% 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Page 8
  • Each taxpayer’s share of the debt is $135,666. $15,332,367,832,123 U.S. National Debt $135,666 Each Taxpayer’s Share$48,985 Each Citizen’s Share Source: USDebtclock.org Page 9
  • While Santorum’s recent success in the Midwest keeps him competitive, Romney remains in the driver’s seat.Candidate Victories Delegates States Pledged Unpledged Total Gingrich 34 4 38 Santorum 33 1 34 Paul 20 0 20 Romney 95 20 115 Needed to Win 1,144 No Winner Gingrich Santorum Romney Page 10
  • Super Tuesday will likely be decisive in separating a candidate from the pack.Delegates Available Super Tuesday Delegates States Pledged Unpledged Total Alaska 24 3 27 Georgia 76 0 76 Idaho 32 0 32 Massachuse tts 38 3 41 North Dakota 0 28 28 Ohio 63 3 66 Oklahoma 40 3 43 Tennessee 55 3 58 Vermont 17 0 17 Super Tuesday Virginia 46 3 49 TOTAL 391 46 437 Page 11
  • Looking at how the 1981 recession was handled shows how quickly the economy should be returning back to its potential.Real vs. Potential GDP 10 Quarters Following 2007 Recession 10 Quarters Following 1981 Recession Source: CBO via Professor John B. Taylor- johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com Page 12
  • A direct comparison of 10 quarters of real GDP growth rates show what kind of actual growth rates a real recovery has.Real GDP Growth during a Recovery Source: CBO via Professor John B. Taylor- johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com Page 13
  • Comparing the employment to population ratio of the 1980’s recovery to today shows that despite the “good news” on the unemployment rate, the percentage of the working age population that actually works is not increasing.Employment to Population Source: Professor John B. Taylor- johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com Page 14
  • For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Brian Smith Ryan Steusloff Vice President Vice President 405.640.9517 202.470.6300 bsmith@WPAResearch.com rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 15