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WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
WPA State of the 2012 Election
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WPA State of the 2012 Election

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  • 1. State of the Election October 18, 2012 Page 1
  • 2. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Page 2
  • 3. Polls over the past two weeks have shown an average of an almost completely even race, with Mitt Romney holding a very slight edge over Barack Obama. The polls have stayed roughly around where they were directly after the first debate, suggesting that Romney’s gains were more permanent than originally thought. Presidential Race Tie R+1 R+6 O+2 O+3 O+1 R+1 R+1 R+4 Tie100%90%80% 47% 48% 45% 47% 49% 49% 46% 45% 45% 45%70%60% 7% 3% 4% 7% 9% 6%50% 12% 5% 3% 10%40%30% Obama 47% 49% 51% 46% 48% 47% 46% 49% Undecided20% 45% 45% Romney10% 0% Page 3
  • 4. Despite being expected to lose, Romney clearly won the first debate. The first debate shifted the race in a significant way as it is now tied at 47% after Obama’s pre-debate lead of 5 points. Pre-First Debate Poll on who was expected to perform better Post-First Debate Poll on who won the debate100% 100%80% 80% 72%60% 56% 60%40% 32% 40% 19%20% 20% 0% 0% Romney Obama Romney Obama Gallup Tracking before and after the First Debate 100% 80% 60% 45% 50% 47% 47% 40% 20% 0% 9/30-10-3 10/3-10/5 Romney Obama Source: CNN/ORC and Gallup Page 4
  • 5. Gallup’s Presidential Tracking has shown upward trend in the weeks following the first debate, and in their first official numbers following the second debate, Mitt Romney has opened up a 6-point lead among likely voters. While many considered the second debate to be a draw or close Obama victory, Romney’s performance has not stopped his momentum. Gallup Presidential Tracking Following the Presidential Debates100%90%80%70%60% 49% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50% 51% 48% 48% 48%50% 48% 47% 48% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 46% 45%40%30%20%10% 0% October 1-7 October 2-8 October 3-9 October 4-10 October 5-11 October 6-12 October 7-13 October 8-14 October 9-15 October 10-16 Romney Obama Page 5
  • 6. SENATE RACES Page 6
  • 7. Out of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2012, 22 seats are considered likelywins or safe for Republicans or Democrats. Fifteen seats are likely or safe Democratand seven states are likely or safe Republican. Dark red and dark blue states represent safe Republican and Democrat seats respectively. Light red and light blue states represent likely wins for Republicans and Democrats respectively. Page 7
  • 8. There are eleven Senate seats that are currently considered toss-ups .Republicanshold slim leads in only 4 out of the 11 seats, but different polls for the toss-up seatsshow a variety of possible outcomes. Page 8
  • 9. Arizona has a very tight Senate race currently, with the RCP average at 43% for both Carmona and Flake. Recent polls have some strong differences though, ranging from Flake +7 to Carmona +4. Arizona Senate Race Tie D+4 D+2 R+3 R+6100%90%80% 43% 44% 40% 41% 45%70%60% 12% Carmona50% 14% 17% 16% 12% Undecided/Other40% Flake30% 43% 43% 43% 47%20% 40%10% 0% RCP Average Behavior Research PPP (D) (Oct. 1-3) HIghGround/Moore Rasmussen Reports Center (Oct. 4-10) (R)® (Sep. 25-26) (Sep. 25) Page 9
  • 10. Despite being soundly beaten by 12 points in 2010, Linda McMahon has reemerged in 2012 to put the traditional blue state of Connecticut in play for Republicans. She trails Murphy by two points in the RCP average, but individual polls show a range of Murphy+5 to McMahon+1. Connecticut Senate Race D+2 D+2 D+5 R+1100%90%80% 48% 46% 47% 51%70%60%50% 5% Murphy 6% 10% 3% Undecided/Other40% McMahon30% 46% 44% 46% 48%20%10% 0% RCP Average Siena (Oct. 4-14) Rasmussen (Oct. 7) Quinnipiac (Sep. 28- Oct. 2) Page 10
  • 11. In Florida, one of the most discussed swing states in the election, there is a large spread among various polls , ranging from +12 for Bill Nelson on the high end to only Bill Nelson +1 at the other end. The RCP average stands at Nelson+7. Florida Senate Race D+7 D+8 D+1 D+5 D+13100%90%80% 48% 45% 46% 47% 52%70%60% Nelson50% 9% Undecided 11% 18% 11% 9% Mack40%30%20% 41% 45% 42% 37% 39%10% 0% RCP Average PPP (D) (Oct. 12-14) Rasmussen Reports (Oct. TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon NBC/WSJ/Marist (Oct. 7- 11) (Oct. 8-10) 9) Page 11
  • 12. Recent polling in Indiana has been limited, but even among two polls it’s apparent that there is variance in the results. Rasmussen shows Mourdock +5, but a Howey/DePauw poll has Donnelly with a 2-point lead. Indiana Senate Race R+5 D+2100%90%80% 42% 40%70%60% Donnelly 11%50% 22% Undecided/Other40% Mourdock30% 47%20% 38%10% 0% Rasmussen Reports (Oct. 10-11) Howey/DePauw (Sep. 19-23) Page 12
  • 13. Brown’s surprise victory in the 2009 Special Election gave a historically safe Democrat seat to the Republicans and set up a close contest for 2012. Warren holds a 3-point lead in the RCP average but the individual polls show a Brown +3 lead in one poll and Warren +6 in another. Massachusetts Senate Race D+3 D+2 D+6 R+3 D+5100%90%80% 49% 49% 45% 50% 50%70%60%50% 7% Warren 5% 4% 6% 5%40% Undecided/Other Brown30% 46% 47% 44% 48% 45%20%10% 0% RCP Average Rasmussen PPP (D) (Oct. 9-11) WBUR/MassINC Western NE Reports (Oct. 10) (Oct. 5-7) University (Sep. 28-Oct. 4) Page 13
  • 14. What was once considered to be a relatively safe Republican victory in Missouri turned into dead- heat following Todd Akin’s unfortunate comments regarding “legitimate rape.” Though Akin lost his lead, the race remains very close, with Akin only trailing by two points in the RCP average. Missouri Senate Race D+2 D+6 D+6 D+1 R+4100%90%80% 40% 46% 46% 46% 51%70%60%50% 16% McCaskill 10% 9% 4% 14% Undecided/Other40% Akin30% 44% 45% 45% 44%20% 40%10% 0% RCP Average Rasmussen PPP (D) (Oct. 1-3) WeAskAmerica Gravis Marketing Reports (Oct. 2) (Sep. 25-27) Sep. 16-17) Page 14
  • 15. Montana’s Senate race has become one of the closest races in the nation this cycle, with Rehberg and Tester tied in the RCP average. The differences in the individual polls range from Tester +2 to Rehberg +3. Montana Senate Race Tie Tie D+2 R+3100%90%80% 46% 48% 45% 45%70%60% 7% Tester50% 8% 4% 12% Undecided/Other40% Rehberg30% 46% 48% 48%20% 43%10% 0% RCP Average Rasmussen Reports PPP (D) (Oct. 8-10) Mason-Dixon (Sep. 17- (Oct. 14) 19) Page 15
  • 16. Nevada has become an increasingly favorable seat for the Republican, as Heller holds a 3-point lead over Berkley in the RCP average and holds a lead in all three of the recent polls conducted in the race. Nevada Senate Race R+3 R+3 R+3 R+3100%90%80% 37% 42% 44% 45%70%60%50% 13% 9% 7% 23% Berkley Undecided/Other40% Heller30% 45% 47% 48%20% 40%10% 0% RCP Average PPP (D) (Oct. 8-10) Rasmussen Reports Suffolk/KSNV (Oct. 6-9) (Oct. 8) Page 16
  • 17. The Ohio Senate race has looked strong for Sherrod Brown throughout most of the year, but Mandel has the RCP average down to only a 5-point lead for Brown. The individual polls have stark contrasts, with Brown holding an 11-point lead in one poll, but only a single point lead in another. Ohio Senate Race D+5 D+7 D+1 D+11 D+4 D+2100%90%80% 42% 47% 49% 47% 46% 52%70%60% Brown50% Undecided/Other 11% 7% 20% 10% 9% 7% Mandel40%30% 42% 42% 46% 44%20% 41% 38%10% 0% RCP Average PPP (D) (Oct. 12- Rasmussen NBC/WSJ/Marist SurveyUSA (Oct. 5- WeAskAmerica 13) Reports (Oct. 10) (Oct. 7-9) 8) (Oct. 4) Page 17
  • 18. Virginia’s battle for the Senate has been one of the most followed races in the nation. Currently Kaine holds a 3-point lead over Allen in RCP average, but the individual polls are very sporadic, with Kaine holding a 7-point lead in one poll, but trailing Allen by 5 points in another poll. Virginia Senate Race D+3 D+1 R+5 D+1 D+7 D+7100%90%80% 41% 48% 48% 47% 51% 51%70%60% Kaine50% 13% Undecided 7% 5% 7% 5% 5%40% Allen30% 45% 47% 46% 46% 44% 44%20%10% 0% RCP Average Rasumussen Reports WeAskAmerica (Oct. NBC/WSJ/Marist CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac PPP (D) (Oct. 4-7) (Oct. 11) 7-9) (Oct. 7-9) (Oct. 4-9) Page 18
  • 19. Wisconsin’s Senate race has turned into a surprisingly close competition, with Baldwin only holding a 3-point lead over Thompson in the RCP Average. While Baldwin leads all of the individual polls, his largest lead is only 4%. Wisconsin Senate Race D+3 D+4 D+2 D+3100%90%80% 49% 51% 48% 49%70%60%50% Baldwin 5% 2% 6% 5% Undecided/Other40% Thompson30% 46% 47% 46% 46%20%10% 0% RCP Average Rasmussen Reports CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac PPP (D) (Oct. 4-6) (Oct. 9) (Oct. 4-9) Page 19
  • 20. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RACE Page 20
  • 21. The Generic Congressional ballot is very tight with only three weeks to go. Currently, Democrats hold a slight 1-point lead over Republicans, which is much closer than leads held in previous election years. This suggests that the Republicans will likely retain control of the House. Previous Election Day Generic Generic Congressional Ballot Ballots100% 100%90% 90% R +7 D +37 D +29 R +6980% 80%70% 70%60% 60% 54% 53% 52% 49% 47%50% 45% 50% 46% 45% 43%40% 40% 44%30% 30% 20%20% 10%10% 0% 0% 2004 2006 2008 2010 Republican Democrat Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Page 21
  • 22. In previous Presidential Election years, House gains have typically been modest, even in landslide victories. With a very close 2012 Presidential race, there is a small likelihood that either party makes substantial gains. Correlation: 0.65 Incumbent President Vote Difference & Seats Gained in Congress 50 1964 40President’s Political Party Congressional Seat Gain 30 1944 20 1936 1984 1992 2004 10 1940 1972 1956 0 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% -10 1996 -20 -30 -40 1980 -50 -60 Incumbent President Vote Difference Source: WPA Analysis Page 22
  • 23. For additional information about this data, please feel free to contact: Chris Wilson Partner and CEO 405.286.6500 E-mail: CWilson@WPAResearch.com Page 23

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