WPA 2012 GOP Convention Poll Day 2 Presentation

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  • 1. Republican National Convention Survey n=611 Likely Voters MoE=±4.0% Fielded August 28-29, 2012 © WPA. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of WPA.
  • 2. Where We Polled Midwest/Northeast Iowa Wisconsin West: Michigan OhioColorado New HampshireNevada South Virginia North Carolina Florida Page 2
  • 3. Interesting National Data Page 3
  • 4. Obama’s job approval has remained below 50% for 15 consecutive months. Obama Job Job Approval Obama Approval100%90%80%70%60% 49% 52% 51% 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 49% 50% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 46% 48% 44% 43% 44% 44% 47% 47% 48% 42%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Approve Disapprove Source: Real Clear Politics
  • 5. Less than 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 53% 60.0% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 30.0% 39% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com
  • 6. Job creation continues to underperform what is necessary to begin real economic recovery. Jobs Created by Month200,000 163,000 125,000 =150,000 Number of new jobs needed to100,000 87,000 keep pace with population 64,000 growth 50,000 0 May June July National Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% July 2012 6.0% 8.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 7. Most registered voters before the Convention indicated that they believed that MittRomney would do a better job of handling the economy than Barack Obama. Handling of the Economy & Unemployment Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 52% Neither/Unsure 10% Source: CBS News Poll, August 22-26, 2012, n=1,051 Registered Voters Page 7
  • 8. The race between Obama and Romney remained a dead-heat heading into the Convention. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 49%50% 47% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47%40% 46% 45% 45% 45% 45% 44% 45% 45% 46% 43% 44% 43% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug 15-Aug 30-Aug Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics
  • 9. Mitt Romney Information Flow Page 9
  • 10. A plurality of the information reaching likely voters in key swing states is giving them a less favorable impression of Mitt Romney.Q5: Opinion from Romney Information Information Flow: Impact 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 44% 42% 40% 37% 37% 30% 24% 25% 20% 22% 22% 10% 0% Aug 28 Aug 28-29 Total More Favorable Much More Favorable Total Less Favorable Much Less Favorable Page 10
  • 11. A plurality of voters in each of the regions of swing states report that the information they have heard about Romney gives them a less favorable impression of him including more than half in Colorado/Nevada.Q5: Impact of Info Flow By region. Impact of Info flow by Region Overall: 37% More Favorable IA/WI/MI/OH/NH Colorado/Nevada (9%) 42% Less Favorable (45%) 15% More Favorable 14% Have Not S/R/H 36% More Favorable 51% Less Favorable 42% Less Favorable 27% Not S/R/H 14% Not S/R/H VA/NC/FL (46%) 41% More Favorable 41% Less Favorable 11% Not S/R/H Page 11
  • 12. Likely voters from swing states report that they are learning about the Romney campaign primarily though coverage of the convention and nightly news shows, both local and national.Q6: Sources of Romney Information Sources of Romney Information GOP Convention-News Coverage 26% Nightly Local News 25% Nightly National News 18% Watching GOP Convention 15% Newspaper Coverage 15% Internet/Blog Coverage 12% Today Show 9% 60 Minutes 6% Piers Morgan 4% Hannity 4% On the Record 4% Your World 3% Other 25% Dont Know 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Page 12
  • 13. The Convention has created large numbers of positive impressions of Romney but this effect is being somewhat offset by highly negative information elsewhere.Q5: Opinion from Romney Information Impact of Romney Image by Information Source 100% 90% 25% 33% 80% 50% 70% 59% 73% 72% 60% 50% Total Less Favorable 40% Total More Favorable 75% 67% 30% 50% 20% 41% 27% 28% 10% 0% News Coverage Watched Nightly Local Nightly National Newspaper Internet of Convention Convention News News Coverage Page 13
  • 14. Those who indicate they have been watching the convention overwhelmingly indicate the information they have been seeing about Mitt Romney is giving them a more favorable impression of him.Q5: Opinion from Romney Information Impact of Romney Image by Engagement with Convention 100% 90% 19% 19% 80% 5% 43% 5% 70% 7% 29% Much less favorable 60% Somewhat less favorable 50% 27% 9% 9% Refused 7% 40% Have not seen/read/heard 15% 19% Somewhat more favorable 30% Much more favorable 20% 10% 9% 37% 10% 16% 15% 0% Watching Convention Watching News Not Watching Coverage Watching Convention Watching News Coverage Not Watching Total More Fav 64% 26% 24% Total Less Fav 24% 52% 48% Page 14
  • 15. Convention Coverage Consumption Page 15
  • 16. More than half of likely voters in key swing states did not pay attention to the Convention on the first night. That number dropped to just over a third on night two.Q8: Are you watching the Convention? Battleground Convention Consumption 100% 2% 3% 90% 80% 36% 70% 53% 60% Other 7% Not Watching 50% Both 2% 27% Watching News Coverage 40% Watching Convention 18% 30% 20% 28% 10% 24% 0% Aug 28 Aug 29 Page 16
  • 17. Just over a quarter of likely voters each key geographic region indicate that they are watching the convention. Most likely voters in the West and Midwest are not watching anything about the convention.Q8: Are you watching the Republican Convention Are you watching the Republican Convention Colorado/Nevada (9%) Overall: IA/WI/MI/OH/NH (45%) 26% Watching Convention 26% Watched Convention 25% Watching Convention 13% Watching Coverage 22% Watched News Coverage 18% Watching Coverage 60% Not Watching 45% Not Watching 50% Not Watching VA/NC/FL (46%) 27% Watching Convention 27% Watching Coverage 37% Not Watching Page 17
  • 18. Nearly half of Republican voters in key swing states now indicate that they are watching the Convention. Democrats are more likely to be watching news coverage while half of independent voters are not watching at all. Are you watching the Republican Convention Republicans Independents Democrats100% 1% 1% 100% 2% 2% 100% 2% 2% 2% 4% 8%90% DK/Refused 90% DK/Refused 90% DK/Refused 26%80% 80% 80% 34% Other Other Other 37% 51% 52%70% 4% 70% 70% 54%60% Not Watching 60% Not Watching 60% 7% Not Watching 18%50% 5% 50% 50% Both 4% 8% Both Both40% 40% 40% 3% 36% 24%30% 30% 22% 30% 22% Watching 23% Watching Watching 49% News News News20% Coverage 20% Coverage 20% Coverage 26% Watching Watching Watching10% 10% 20% 10% 18% 21% Convention 15% Convention Convention 0% 0% 0% Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 28 Aug 29 Page 18
  • 19. Convention Speeches Page 19
  • 20. A plurality of likely voters in key swing states who have been paying attention to the convention were able to recall Ann Romney’s speech. More than a third could recall Chris Christie’s speech.Q9: Which Speeches do you remember seeing? Speeches Recalled: Night One Speakers Ann Romney 44% Chris Christie 37% Nikki Haley 5% John Boehner 4% John Kasich 4% Scott Walker 4% Rick Santorum 3% Reince Priebus 2% Kelly Ayotte 2% Bob McDonnell 2% Janine Turner 1% Ted Cruz 1% Artur Davis 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Page 20
  • 21. Night one speeches have very high recall among likely voters because they have had a full news cycle of coverage whereas night two speakers have not yet been covered in the press.Q9: Which Speeches do you remember seeing? Speeches Recalled: Night Two Speakers Rand Paul 2% John McCain 2% Paul Ryan 2% Mitch McConnell 1% Mike Huckabee 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Page 21
  • 22. Ann Romney’s speech was the clear favorite among likely voters in key swing states with Chris Christie’s speech coming in second.Q10: Which Speech did you like the most? Favorite Speech Ann Romney 33% Chris Christie 16% Craig Romney 2% John Boehner 1% Janine Turner 1% John Kasich 1% Nikki Haley 1% Rand Paul 1% Mike Huckabee 1% Jeb Bush 1% Dont Remember 8% Didnt watch 10% Dont Know 22% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Page 22
  • 23. Reasons for favorite speech: 1st NightQ11: Reason for favorite speech Favorite Reason it was the Favorite Speech Chris Christie He is somewhat controversial and he used the term “don’t piss me off.” Chris Christie He is concerned about the middle class. Chris Christie He talked about liberty and justice for all. Chris Christie I like that he talks in a straight forward, no-nonsense manner. Jeb Bush I like his politics. John Boehner He was convincing saying that nothing has been done in favor of the public in the last four years and we need to make a change in the political agenda. John Boehner He was blasting Obama. John Kasich He said that when he came into office the state of Ohio had less money in their state treasury than children do in their piggy banks. John Kasich He was pretty clear about taxes and the debt. Ann Romney She really supports women’s rights and encourages women in the business sector. Ann Romney She is a good speaker and I like her as a person. Scott Walker He was enthusiastic. Page 23
  • 24. Reasons given for why likely voters liked the two favorite speakers tended to revolve around the sincerity of Ann Romney and Chris Christie and their ability to connect with the voters with honesty and passion.Q11: Reason for favorite speech Reason for Favorite Speech: Night 2 Ann Romney Chris Christie • Spoke about the Family • No-Nonsense Person • Sincere and Truthful • Straight Forward • Explained who her husband is • Straight Talk • Seems “Down-to-Earth” • Interesting Person • Not a Professional Politician • Honest • Honest • Showed Conviction and • Heartfelt Passion • Positive and Knowledgeable • Fired Up • Genuine • Energetic • Talked about Women’s Rights • Positive • Personalized the Family Page 24
  • 25. Reasons for favorite speech: 2nd NightQ11: Reason for favorite speech Favorite Reason it was the Favorite Speech Artur Davis I think he was being honest. Artur Davis Because he seems to have an open mind and to be intellectually honest. John Boehner He described Mitt Romney as a real person who cares. John Boehner He talked about what the House has done and what the Senate has not done. John Kasich He talked about business, regulations, and fracking. John McCain He sounded very statesman-like and talked about our exceptionalism. Marco Rubio He is pro all of the things that the country is about. Mike Huckabee He was talking about the hope and change that Obama talked about during his 1st campaign. Nikki Haley She just nailed everything. Nikki Haley She talked about how entrepreneurs are going for the country because they employ others. Page 25
  • 26. For additional information about this data, please feel free to contact: Chris Perkins Chris Wilson Bryon Allen Partner Partner & CEO Partner 405.286.6500 405.286.6500 202.470.6300CPerkins@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com BAllen@WPAResearch.com