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Iowa statewide gop caucus ballot press release mq 110825

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  • 1. WILSON PERKINS ALLEN OPINION RESEARCH WPA ID: 11-336 324 Second Street, SE Washington, DC 20003 405.286.6500 www.wparesearch.comIOWA STATEWIDE GOP CAUCUS BALLOT_MQ_110822MAKE US GREAT AGAINLIKELY IOWA GOP CAUCUS GOERSAUGUST 21-22, 2011SAMPLE:n=402 Likely Iowa GOP Caucus GoersMoE=+4.9%NO CODE/ASK ALL QUESTIONSINTRODUCTION: Good evening. My name is ____________ and Im calling from Wilson Perkins Allen OpinionResearch, a national public opinion firm. This evening were conducting a short scientific survey in STATE and wedlike to get your opinions. We’re not selling anything and your responses will be completely confidential.SCREENERW1. First, are you or any member of your immediate family a member of the news media, a Public Relations company, or an active participant with any political campaign? 1. Yes ........................................................................................................ TERMINATE 2. No/All other .....................................................................................................100%1. As you may know, in Iowa you will participate in your neighborhood caucus to vote for the Republican nominee for President. Thinking about the caucuses coming up on February 5th, 2012, would you say that you are ROTATE TOP-TO-BOTTOM; BOTTOM-TO-TOP very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely END ROTATION to participate in your neighborhood caucus to vote for the Republican nominee for President? 1. Very likely .......................................................................................................... 72% 2. Somewhat likely ................................................................................................ 28% 3. Undecided/DK/Refused DNR ............................................................ TERMINATE 4. Somewhat unlikely ............................................................................... TERMINATE 5. Very unlikely ......................................................................................... TERMINATE2. Many voters tend to fall into groups that reflect their overall values. Which of the following statements, if you had to choose just one, reflects what you, yourself think? RANDOMIZE 3. An economic conservative concerned about jobs, economic growth, 39% and inflation. 4. A Tea Party conservative concerned about spending, the federal 25% debt, and protecting the US Constitution. 1. A social conservative concerned about moral values, protecting the 24% family, and pro-life. 2. A national defense conservative concerned about protecting 4% America from terrorists and foreign enemies. 98. Not Sure DNR 6% 99. Refused DNR 2% © 2011 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
  • 2. Make Us Great Again/Likely Iowa GOP Caucus Goers/1133/5526 Page 2 of 5Now thinking about next year’s Republican primary (election/caucus) for United States President…3. If the Republican primary (election/caucus) for United States President were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were… RANDOMIZE Rick Perry Ron Paul Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Thaddeus McCotter Newt Gingrich …and… Herman Cain Jon Huntsman IF CHOICE, ASK: And would you DEFINITELY vote for (choice) or just PROBABLY? IF UNDECIDED/NOT SURE, ASK If you had to choose today, who would you lean toward (repeat candidates)? TOTAL PERRY 23% TOTAL PAUL 9% TOTAL BACHMANN 20% TOTAL SANTORUM 7% TOTAL ROMNEY 16% TOTAL MCCOTTER 0% TOTAL GINGRICH 3% TOTAL HUNTSMAN 2% TOTAL CAIN 8% 1. Definitely Perry 6% 16. Definitely Paul 5% 2. Probably Perry 11% 17. Probably Paul 2% 3. Lean Perry 6% 18. Lean Paul 2% 4. Definitely Bachmann 6% 19. Definitely Santorum 3% 5. Probably Bachmann 9% 20. Probably Santorum 2% 6. Lean Bachmann 5% 21. Lean Santorum 2% 7. Definitely Romney 7% 22. Definitely McCotter 0% 8. Probably Romney 5% 23. Probably McCotter 0% 9. Lean Romney 3% 24. Lean McCotter 0% 10. Definitely Gingrich 1% 25. Definitely Huntsman 1% 11. Probably Gingrich 1% 26. Probably Huntsman 1% 12. Lean Gingrich <1% 27. Lean Huntsman <1% 13. Definitely Cain 3% 98. Not Sure DNR 9% 14. Probably Cain 4% 99. Refused DNR 3% 15. Lean Cain 1% © 2011 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Confidential – do not copy or distribute without permission
  • 3. Make Us Great Again/Likely Iowa GOP Caucus Goers/1133/5526 Page 3 of 5Now, thinking some more about the Republican candidates for President…RANDOMIZE Q4-54. (And,) between RANDOMIZE Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney END RANDOMIZATION who would you think would be the best at creating jobs and improving the economy? 3. Rick Perry 38% 1. Mitt Romney 27% 2. Michele Bachmann 18% 4. All of the Above DNR 1% 5. None of the Above DNR 2% 98. Not Sure DNR 13% 99. Refused DNR 1%5. (And,) between RANDOMIZE Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney END RANDOMIZATION who do you believe has the best chance to defeat Barack Obama for President? 3. Rick Perry 41% 1. Mitt Romney 24% 2. Michele Bachmann 13% 4. All of the Above DNR 6% 5. None of the Above DNR 3% 98. Not Sure DNR 13% 99. Refused DNR <1%Now, I have just a few more questions for demographic purposes only….6. In politics today, do you usually think of yourself as a ROTATE Republican, Independent, or Democrat? IF REPUBLICAN/DEMOCRAT, ASK: Do you think of yourself as a STRONG (Republican/Democrat) or NOT-SO-STRONG (Republican/Democrat)? TOTAL REPUBLICAN 74% TOTAL DEMOCRAT 1% 1. Strong Republican 56% 2. Not-So-Strong Republican 19% 3. Independent/Something Else 23% 4. Not-So-Strong Democrat 1% 5. Strong Democrat 1% 98. Not Sure DNR 1% 99. Refused DNR <1% © 2011 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Confidential – do not copy or distribute without permission
  • 4. Make Us Great Again/Likely Iowa GOP Caucus Goers/1133/5526 Page 4 of 57. (And,) Would you say you are a ROTATE Conservative, a Moderate, or a Liberal in your political beliefs? IF CONSERVATIVE/LIBERAL, ASK: And, would you say you are VERY (conservative/liberal) or just SOMEWHAT (conservative/liberal)? TOTAL CONSERVATIVE 78% TOTAL LIBERAL 1% 1. Very Conservative 55% 2. Somewhat Conservative 22% 3. Moderate 20% 4. Somewhat Liberal 1% 5. Very Liberal <1% 98. Not Sure DNR 1% 99. Refused DNR <1%8. What is the highest level of formal education you have completed? 1. Less than high school graduate 2% 2. High school graduate 18% 3. Some College /Associates Degree 25% 4. Bachelor’s Degree 35% 5. Post graduate 19% 98. Not Sure DNR <1% 99. Refused DNR 0%9. How often do you attend church or religious services? 1. More than once a week 22% 2. Once a week 47% 3. Couple of times a month 9% 4. Once a month 7% 5. Once/twice a year 9% 6. Never 5% 98. Not Sure DNR 0% 99. Refused DNR 1%10. Are you or is any member of your household currently serving in the military or a military veteran? IF YES SPECIFY 0. No 69% 1. Currently serving in the military 5% 2. A military veteran 26% 98. Not Sure DNR 0% 99. Refused DNR 0% © 2011 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Confidential – do not copy or distribute without permission
  • 5. Make Us Great Again/Likely Iowa GOP Caucus Goers/1133/5526 Page 5 of 511. Do you or does anybody in your household own a gun? 1. Yes 58% 2. No 37% 98. Not Sure DNR 1% 99. Refused DNR 4%12. Now, thinking about abortion, do you consider yourself to be ROTATE pro-life or pro-choice END ROTATION? IF PRO-LIFE/PRO-CHOICE: And, would you say you are STRONGLY (pro-choice/pro-life), or just SOMEWHAT? TOTAL PRO-LIFE 80% TOTAL PRO-CHOICE 17% 1. Strongly Pro-Life 67% 2. Somewhat Pro-Life 13% 3. Somewhat Pro-Choice 9% 4. Strongly Pro-Choice 7% 98. Not Sure DNR 2% 99. Refused DNR 1%13. In what year were you born? RECORD EXACT FOUR DIGIT RESPONSE; RECODE INTO CATEGORIES 1. 18-34 12% 2. 35-44 16% 3. 45-54 19% 4. 55-64 25% 5. 65+ 27% 99. Refused DNR 1%14. Sex: BY OBSERVATION 1. Male 56% 2. Female 44%15. “Old” 2010 Congressional District: PRE-CODE 1. CD 1 15% 2. CD 2 17% 3. CD 3 25% 4. CD 4 23% 5. CD 5 20% © 2011 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Confidential – do not copy or distribute without permission