Nathan Eagle, PhD- Engaging the Next Billion
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Nathan Eagle, PhD- Engaging the Next Billion

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CEO and Co-founder, Jana (formerly txteagle); Adjunct Assistant Professor, Harvard University; Visiting Assistant Professor, MIT Media Laboratories; Research Assistant Professor, Northeastern ...

CEO and Co-founder, Jana (formerly txteagle); Adjunct Assistant Professor, Harvard University; Visiting Assistant Professor, MIT Media Laboratories; Research Assistant Professor, Northeastern University

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  • Western Europe’s share of world GDP will drop by almost a third, to about 7% whereas Africa is going to triple to have almost double the GDP of Western Europe; -- while North America will fall by half to 11%. And again the big story of this growth in developing Asia…Today 4 out of the 10 largest economies are in Western Europe - In 2050 Europe will be all but knocked out –India is expected to have overtaken China to claim the title spot, while Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt and Mexico should all have made an entry into the elite club of the ten largest economies of the world.
  • As a result, the composition of world GDP is expected to change substantially. We estimate Western Europe, which accounted for 19% of world GDP in 2010, will only make up 11% of the world economy by 2030 and 7% by 2050. Similarly, we forecast North America’s share will fall from 22% in 2010 to 15% in 2030 to just 11% in 2050, while Developing Asia’s share will increase from 27% of world GDP in 2010 to 44% in 2030 and 49% in 2050. Meanwhile, we expect Africa’s share in the world economy to triple, from just 4% in 2010 to 12% in 2050. The shares of Latin America and the Middle East, on the other hand, are expected to remain relatively unchanged, as growth in those regions is expected to be close to the World average.
  • As a result, the share of world real GDP (at PPP USD) accounted for by North America and Western Europe is expected to fall from 41% in 2010 to just 18% in 2050, while Developing Asia’s share is predicted to rise from 27% of world GDP to 49% in 2050. We expect China to overtake the US to become the largest economy in the world by 2020 – to be in turn overtaken by India by 2050.As the CEO of a venture backed start-up, one of the obvious things you’re never supposed to do when explaining the value proposition of your company is to show a complicated graph – ESP if the time horizon on the x-axis goes all the way out to 2050. I know I’ve got one investor already here in the audience, but I’m going to have to talk to this slide anyway, because it is so important. Things are changing, and in 40 years, this planet, economically, is going to look a lot different than it does today. A lot different. This is – I think – the story of a lifetime. We have the privilege of getting to watch this happen. I think this is tremendously positive, but others may view it as a little scary. Either way, though, this is reality. And here at 2011, we’re at the beginning of this knee of expansion. Things really are starting to happen, and now really is the time to be involved. ---So let’s go back a decade. Sure the growth rates of these emerging markets were there, just as they are today. However, you’ve probably were conditioned to ignore the hype, and well you should have. For, while the economies on average were increasing at a tremendous clip, the truth was that there was no one there to buy anything. All the middle class consumers were still in Europe, the US and Japan.Things are changing, and in 40 years, this planet, economically, is going to look a lot different than it does today. A lot different. This is – I think – the story of a lifetime. We have the privilege of getting to watch this happen. I think this is tremendously positive, but others may view it as a little scary. Either way, though, this is reality. And here at 2011, we’re at the beginning of this knee of expansion. Things really are starting to happen, and now really is the time to be involved. Major brands know it, and if we want to serve them, we need to be able to take the pulse of their consumers – and the geography those consumers live in is rapidly moving.So, let’s say you’ve bought into my 3 slide argument – that consumers in emerging markets really are starting to gain global significance in importance, and that now really is the time to think about getting involved in understanding them better. If this is my focus, why am I at a mobile technology conference?
  • China should overtake the US to become the largest economy in the world by 2020, then be overtaken by India by 2050Europe will be all but knocked out – with Germany potenitaly hanging on to the #10 position. India is expected to have overtaken China to claim the title spot, while Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt and Mexico should all have made an entry into the elite club of the ten largest economies of the world.

Nathan Eagle, PhD- Engaging the Next Billion Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Engaging the Next Billion Nathan Eagle Jana, Inc. Boston Mumbai San Francisco Singapore http://jana.com
  • 2. Mobile Phone Users by Country 2
  • 3. Mobile Ownership 3
  • 4. Facebook Users by Country 4
  • 5. Failures using Top-Down Data
  • 6. Mobile Operator Data: CDR • CDR Column Elements – Caller (Texter) / Receiver • Hashed ID! – Time / Duration – Cellular Towers • Typical Data – 1 Month – 5 Years – 5% – 100% of the population 6
  • 7. Reactions to Regional Shocks • Spatial Dynamic Bayesian Anomaly Detection – Quantify tower-level behavioral priorsN. Eagle and E. Horvitz. (2009).‘Spatial Dynamic Bayesian Anomaly Detection for Real-Time Disease Detection’, AAAI.
  • 8. Failures using Bottom-Up Data
  • 9. SMS Blood Bank • Real-time monitoring of blood supplies at local district hospitals in Eastern Kenya
  • 10. Lessons
  • 11. Prepaid Dominance • In emerging 100% markets, phone 90% subscriptions are pre- 80% paid 70% – No contract 60% – Free to receive incoming 50% calls, texts, etc. 40% Post-paid – Constantly adding small 30% Pre-paid amounts of airtime from 20% kiosks 10% 0% Small amounts of airtime = electronic cash
  • 12. Global Survey PartnersBy integrating into the systems of 232 mobile operators, Jana can reward 2.1 billionconsumers across the world. 12
  • 13. Mobile Survey Lessons • Financial incentives required to offset usage costs • Great source of people • Solid pre-qualification platform • Basic data collection platform – Need to limit to 5-10 questions – Questions ideally “multiple choice” style – Cannot think in terms of smart-phones / large screens / touch screens • Possibly a way to drive people to better interface? – Full browser Internet, focus groups, phone interview, face-to- face, etc. 13
  • 14. Multiple Survey Channels Web / Mobile Web SMS UCMP Facebook  Structured data  Structured data  Penetration –  Penetration –  Longer surveys  Longer surveys 5 billion handsets 5 billion handsets  Speed – open session  No cost to end-user 14
  • 15. Self-Serve Platform: What Would You Do with $15? “Buy a domain name for my website” “I’d give it “Buy perfume” to the needy” “Pay dowry” “I’d put it in the bank” “Give it to my mosque” “Pay my school fees” 15
  • 16. N = BILLIONS…
  • 17. Jana nathan@jana.com eagle@hsph.harvard.edu http://jana.comEngineering Social Systems http://hsph.harvard.edu/ess
  • 18. Explosive Facebook Growth
  • 19. Facebook: India (#3)Users: 41 Million6-Month Growth Rate: 33%Penetration of Online Population: 51% 20
  • 20. Facebook: Russia (#29)Users: 5 Million6-Month Growth Rate: 8%Penetration of Online Population: 9% 21
  • 21. Facebook: Philippines (#8)Users: 27 Million6-Month Growth Rate: 6%Penetration of Online Population: 91% 22
  • 22. Facebook: Vietnam (#41)Users: 4 Million6-Month Growth Rate: 25%Penetration of Online Population: 15% 23
  • 23. What laundry IP detergents are favored in Brazil, India & China? IP IP IP PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL 2411/26/2012
  • 24. Fastest Growing Economies Top 10 countries by GDP per capita growth (% YoY) 2010 – 2050Note: Average annual growth rates of GDP per capita (% YoY) measured in 2010 PPP USDSource: Citi Investment Research and Analysis
  • 25. World GDP 2010 - 2050 2010 2050Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; Citi Investment Research and Analysis PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 26. Middle Class Consumption Source: EU EEA PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 27. Top 10 Largest EconomiesSource: IMF World Economic Outlook; Citi Investment Research and Analysis (trillion 2010 PPP USD) PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 28. The Gateway to the Emerging Market Consumer How can we How can I deploy incentivize targeted consumers to try our Is my product coupons? products? How do I integrateavailable on store “social” into my shelves? marketing campaigns? How do we promote group How do we raise buying among awareness with rural Indian rural consumers women?How is our brand How much does a perceived? kilo of rice cost in that marketplace? How can I sell more What do Chinese Is there a way to cereal in the consumers think instigate group Philippines? about fruit juice? purchasing behavior? 29