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Janez Kopac, Director of the Energy Community Secretariat
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Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - ...

Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy

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Janez Kopac, Director of the Energy Community Secretariat Presentation Transcript

  • 1. 1The external impact of key EU energystrategies (echo of loud voices)Edison + WEC conferenceRome, 29 May 2013Janez Kopač, Director of the Energy Community Secretariat
  • 2. 2THE COMMUNITY – A LOOK AT THE MAPStatus: February 2013
  • 3. 3Main upcoming legislative work• Energy Statistics – implementation by 31st December 2013• Directive 2009/28 on Renewables – implementation by 1st January 2014• Third Package on electricity / gas – implementation by 1st January 2015– + missing rules from “Second Package” !• Large Combustion Plants Directive – implementation by 31st Dec. 2017• Sulphur in Fuels Directive was due for 31st Dec 2011 !!• Energy Efficiency was due for 31st Dec 2012• Oil stocks – implementation by 1st January 2023http://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOME/ENERGY_COMMUNITY/Legal/EU_Legislation
  • 4. 420-20-20 BY 2020EUGreenhousegas levelsEnergyconsumptionRenewables inthe energy mix-20% -20%100%+20%Source: EU DG ENEREU EU EC%6-EU + EC
  • 5. 5Main EU energy ideas in Energy Community Contracting Parties• Area EU EnergyCommunity• Renewable energy sources 20% in 2020 20% in 2020• Energy efficiency 20% in 2020 9% in 2018• CO2 emissions 20% in 2020 not applicable• Infrastructure PCI PECI• Integrated energy market 2014 2015
  • 6. 6CONTRACTING PARTIES 2020 RES TARGETS0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0% 45,0%KOSOVO*UKRAINESERBIAMONTENEGROMOLDOVAFYR OF MACEDONIACROATIABOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINAALBANIA18,9%5,5%21,2%26,3%11,9%21,9%12,6%34,0%31,2% 38%40%28%17%33%27%11%25%20%
  • 7. 7SETTING THE 2020 RES TARGETS:“EQUIVALENCE” TO EU TARGET• Premise of equivalent level of ambition as EU 20% target• Three Components:2009 Baseline RES Share+ Flat Rate Increase - 5,5%+ Additional Residual Effort based on relative GDP per capita (approx1-2 %)- Adjusted based on the trajectory approach to reflect shorter timeremaining for implementation – 15,85%• Calculated against 2009 baseline year with latest forecasts–Different from EU baseline of 2005 in order to use most accuratedata available
  • 8. 8ENERGY EFFICIENCY - A STRATEGIC PRIORITYSource: IEA 2012 (2010 data)ENERGY INTENSITY IS MUCH HIGHER THAN IN EU!0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60toe/thousand2005USDTPES/GDPTFEC/GDPEU 27 PEIEU 27 FEI
  • 9. 9ENERGY EFFICIENCY - A STRATEGIC PRIORITYSource: IEA 2012 (2010 data)ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA LOWER THAN IN EU, BUT EXPECTEDTO RISE!0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00ALB BIH CRO KOS* MKD MNE SER MOL UKR WB EnCtoe/capitaTPES/populationTFEC/populationEU 27 TPES/populationEU 27 TFEC/population
  • 10. 10ACQUIS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCYMINISTERIAL COUNCIL DECISIONS ADOPTED THEFOLLOWING ENERGY EFFICIENCY ACQUIS(Dec. 2009/Sep. 2010/Oct. 2011)1. DIRECTIVE 2006/32/EC (ESD)- by 31 December 20112. DIRECTIVE 2010/31/EU ON THE ENERGY PERFORMANCEOF BUILDINGS (EPBD) – RECAST DIRECTIVE 2002/91/EC- by 30 September 20123. DIRECTIVE 2010/30/EU ON LABELING (RECAST DIRECTIVE92/75/EEC) AND IMPLEMENTING DIRECTIVES/DELEGATEDACTS (ELD)– by 31 December 2011 / 31 December 2012New : ENERGY EFFICIENCY DIRECTIVE 2012/27/EU– Recommendation of the Ministerial Council for transposition -October 201310
  • 11. 11Infrastructure package• EU Energy Community• PCIs PECIs• Connecting Europe Facility WBIF, neighbourhood• Streamlining of spatial planning and building permitingprocedurec (3,5 years)
  • 12. 12Energy Community StrategyIn two phases:Phase 1: A Strategy paper, endorsed by the MC in October 2012Phase 2: Identification of Projects of Energy Community Interest (PECIs),and associated policy measures to promote these, October 2012 – October2013The strategy paper has set three important objectives: Objective 1: Creating a Competitive Integrated Regional Energy Market Objective 2: Attracting investments in the energy sector Objective 3: Providing secure and sustainable energy supply to customers…. and a large number of actions to support these,
  • 13. 13Current energy situation and national trendsBrief overview of the energy sectors in the Western Balkans/EnergyCommunity, common features: Small and fragmented markets, with the exception of Ukraine Dependent on domestic fossil fuel (coal/lignite) or imported gas and oil Single source of gas imports High potential for renewable energy, especially hydro, biomass, wind,solar High potential for energy efficiency Power generation based on technologies from 60‟ and 70‟ – exceedingtheir life span, high reliability and environmental concerns Urgent need for major retrofit, and new power plants
  • 14. 14Energy demand scenarios and investment costsThree scenarios were selected:– „Current trends‟ – if current trends in development of the energy sectorcontinue, what are the implications?– „Minimal investment cost’ – what are the minimal costs required to ensurethat there is adequate supply of electricity to meet demand? this will bemeeting the energy efficiency and RE energy targets only partially, and willnot meet the Large Combustion Plants Directive– „Low Emissions Development/Sustainability‟ - if more aggressivepromotion of EE and RE was pursued, what might be the implications?;under this scenario all targets will be met as well as the requirements of theLarge Combustion Plants Directive
  • 15. 15Scenario analysis implicationsA few highlights:The scenario analysis demonstrates the potential for severe electricityshortages if current trends continue unabated.It also demonstrated a very large investment gap, with Contracting Partiesreported plans already at approx. 27.9 billion Euros through 2020 WesternBalkans and 44 billion Euros for the Energy Community – it is evenhigher when considering the view point of other regional energy experts orwhen the analysis extends to include plant in the 2021 to 2030 timeframe.The scenarios indicate the potentially large investment needs of requiredfor the region to meet supply adequacy. Between 2012-2020, an estimated14.7 billion Euros only for WBs or 39.1 Billion Euros for the entireEnergy Community of investments are needed under the scenario thatfocuses on minimum supply adequacy.It is evident that there are projects of regional significance that can benefitfrom a coherent EnC energy strategy.An EnC strategy supported by a framework for project support should helpmobilize financing.
  • 16. 16Indentification of Projects of Energy CommunityInterest (PECIs)Categories eligible for PECI “label”Power generation New generation capacities Modernization, retrofitting of existing power plants, allowing for more efficient andenvironmentally safe productionElectricity transmissionGas transmission Gas transmission pipelines (bi-directional capacity) Underground storage facilities LNG and CNG terminalsOil Refinery improvements for facilitating improved fuel quality Storage facilities to contribute to the security stockholding obligations Pipelines used to transport crude oil
  • 17. 17Overview of Submitted Project ProposalsContracting Party/ProjectPromoter CountryElectricitytransmissionElectricitygenerationGas infrastructure Oil infrastructure TOTALALBANIA 2 2 2 - 6BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 3 15 4 - 22CROATIA 4 2 4 1 11FYR of MACEDONIA 2 3 - - 5KOSOVO* 6 4 - - 10MOLDOVA 2 - 1 - 3MONTENEGRO 3 2 - - 5SERBIA 6 13 9 2 30UKRAINE 2 2 2 1 7TAP (Company) - - 1 - 1TOTAL 30 43 23 4 100
  • 18. 18Policy/regulatory tools to facilitate PECIsHarmonized permit granting regime for PECIs Most preferential treatment in Contracting Parties Streamlining procedures Competent Authority with powers to manage permit granting process Time limit for the permit granting decision Increased transparency and public participationEnergy system wide cost benefit analysisCross-border actions and benefits Cross-border cost-allocation National Regulatory Authorities joint decision on investments and cost-allocation ECRB arbitration/decision if no agreementLong-term investment incentives Obligation on National Regulatory Authorities to grant appropriate risk-relatedincentives
  • 19. 19GEOGRAPHIC TARGETEnergy Community vs 8th Region198TH REGION
  • 20. 20Energy market• EU - internal energy market by the end of2014• Energy Community wholesale marketopening by 2012, regional market coupling by2014, adoption of 3rd Energy Package by Jan2015, Network Codes ???
  • 21. 21REALITY CHECKElectricty Wholesale Market Opening in the 8th Region21SEE WMO RAP Deadline &responsibilityDone? Developments1. Capacity calculation- Harmonized methodologies/procedures for capacity calculation(yearly / monthly / day ahead)Q1 2011ENTSO-E SEE RGNO2. Long-term allocation- Coordinated bilateral explicitauctions implemented on all borderswithin the SEE region- Multilateral coordinated auctions onseveral borders (NTC-based)- Centralized auctions via SEE CAO(NTC based in a first step)- Multilateral coordinated auctions onall borders (regional one stop shop)Q1 2012TSOs, Ministries,NRAsQ3 2012TSOs, Ministries,NRAsQ4 2012TSOs, Ministries,NRAsQ4 2014ENTSO-E SEE RGNOPARTLYNOYearly 2014 capacities expected to beauctioned by SEE CAO end 2013But: Serbia, Bulgaria missing
  • 22. 22THE KEY BARRIERSElectricty Wholesale Market Opening in the 8th Region22SEE WMO RAP Deadline &responsibilityDone? Developments3. Day ahead allocation- Establishment of power exchangesin several SEE countries orcontracting services from the existingPX- Bilateral/ trilateral market coupling inSEE region- Price based market coupling (EUtarget model) in entire SEE region- Pan-European market couplingincluding the SEE region31.12.2011 thelatestNationalQ2 2012Q4 2014ECRB, PHLG, ENTSO-E RGSEEQ2 2015NONODevelopemnts in Croatia& Serbia towardsestablishment of a PX4. Intraday allocation-on several borders-harmonised regional solutionQ2 2014 TSO‟sQ2 2015 ENTSO-E RGNO5. Balancing 2013 NRA‟s, ECRB NO SEE balancing targetmodel
  • 23. 23REAL CHALENGES• Price liberalization• Definition of socially vulnerable customers A socially vulnerable customer isan electricity consumer: using energy for supplying her/his permanent housingthrough single-phase meter with a connection not exceeding maximum power,not exceeding maximum energy consumption per person and belonging to acategory of citizens with lowest income. The definition shall not include morethan a minority of population. When defining power of a mono phase meterand energy consumption level per person, Contracting Parties shall considerpower of up to 16 Ampere and total consumption of up to 100 kWh/month for afamily with up to 4 members as maximum including the need to reflectseasonality. For the definition of low income, beside the income all availableassets shall be taken into account.• Large combustion plants directive - 2017
  • 24. 24IN CONCLUSION...