Hounda Ben Jannet Allal, General Director of Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie


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Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy

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Hounda Ben Jannet Allal, General Director of Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie

  1. 1. Energy Prospects inthe MediterraneanRegionThe transition is a mustDr Houda Ben Jannet AllalEnergy transition in Europe: different pathways,same destination?Rome, 29 May 2013
  2. 2. CROSS-ROADS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETSAND SEVERAL CHALLENGES AHEAD7% of world population, 500 million people, 90million more by 2030, nearly all in the South10% world GDP, $7.5 trillion of GDP, 2.5% p.a.average growth to 20308% of world’s primary energy demandImportant energy corridor / energy hubSeveral challenges calling for innovative energystrategiesSecurity of supply concernsFinancial crisis and important socio-political changesParticular vulnerability to climate change and itsimpacts
  3. 3. ENERGY IN THE SMCS – COMMON DRIVERS ANDCHALLENGES AND ALSO DISPARITIESCommonHigh demographic development and rapid urbanisationaround the littoralHigh economic growthAccess to energy almost of all, efforts are still neededEnergy driver to the socio-economic developmentIncreasing climate change concerns and effectsImportant disparities S/S and also S/NAvailability of conventional energy resourcesFrom exporting to totally importing countriesLarge disparities with NMCs
  4. 4. DISPARITIES, INTERDEPENDENCY ANDCONVERGENCE TENDENCY00,511,522,533,580 90 2000 2010PNMPSM0123456780 90 2000 2010PNMPSMTPES / capita (toe/cap)CO2 / capita (tCO2/cap)
  5. 5. MEP 2011 - KEYMESSAGES
  6. 6. BUSINESS AS USUAL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLECurrent energy trends in the Mediterranean are notsustainable. Conservative scenario is not an option:Overall energy demand could grow by 40% to2030.CO2 emissions would exceed 3000Mt in 2030, upfrom 2200Mt currently.Electricity boom ahead: average annual growthrate of about 2.8% and 5% in the South: overallover 380 GW of additional capacity needed.Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energymix and natural gas will overtake oil.High potential for RE & EE not fully exploited
  7. 7. Energy for +80 million persons; +73% GDP/head.Electricity demand to multiply by 3Overall energy demand &CO2 emissions to double.HIGH CHALLENGES IN THE SOUTH
  8. 8. OPPORTUNITIES …. EE&RECarlo Rubbia, aime rappeler que dans le Sahara, il« pleut » chaque année l’équivalent d’un baril de pétrolepar mètre carré, sous forme de rayonnement solaire
  9. 9. THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE PATHUnder a Proactive Scenario:• Savings in primary (12%) and final energy (10%)• Overall demand and CO2 emissions just grow 20%• Less fossil fuel imports, less generation capacity needed4 5006 5008 50010 50012 5007008009001 0001 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001990 2000 2010 2020 2030GDP (billiondollars(ppps2005))MtoeProactive ScenarioConservative ScenarioGDP - 12%MEDITERRANEANENERGYDEMANDOUTLOOK, byScenarios
  10. 10. ENERGY DEMAND BY FUELThe future will remain fossil fuel based (70%)Gas demand could increase by 70%, over 40% in analternative scenarioRES can take a relevant share:16% from 8% today02004006008001000120014001990 2009 CS2030 PS2030MtoeRenewables& WasteHydroNuclearGasOilCoal
  11. 11. HEAVY RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUELS WILL ENDURE020040060080010001200Demand Production Demand Production Demand ProductionMtoeGasOilCoal2009 ConservativeScenario2030 ProactiveScenario2030MEDITERRANEAN FOSSILFUELDEMANDANDPRODUCTION OUTLOOKSource: OME
  12. 12. GAS ERA AND OIL PEAKExport capacity would substantially increase underthe Proactive Scenario to over 180 bcm in 2030.-100102030405060708090100110Algeria Egypt Libya IsraelbcmGASEXPORTPOTENTIAL2010 CS2030 PS2030
  13. 13. Electricity demand in the South will nearly tripleby 2030.MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD01000200030001990 2009 Conservative2030Proactive2030TWhSouthNorthMEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITYGENERATION84%70%54% 58%42%46%30%16%
  14. 14. 200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand.32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.ADDITIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY NEEDEDINSOUTH& EASTMEDITERRANEAN16%14%5%17%6%5%49%50%40%3%6%18%14%15%2%13%28%50100150200250300350120GW 321GW 289GWGWNon - hydroRenewablesHydroNuclearGasOilCoal2009 2030 PS2030 CS
  15. 15. RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION05001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5001990 2000 2010 2020 2030TWhRenewablesHydroNuclearGasOilCoalCoal14%Oil8%Gas33%Nuclear25%Hydro14%RES6%201036%RES electricity increased by more than 2.5 times in 1990-2010Renewables are expected to compete directly with natural gasas the dominant electricity source by 2030 (over 1000 TWh)
  16. 16. DIFFERENT DECOUPLING PATTERNSEnergy intensity is decreasing leading to a decouplingof GDP and energy demand. 2000 2010 2020 2030toe/thousand US$--MedPS Energy IntensityMedCS Energy Intensity--MedPS Electricity intensityMed CS Electricity intensity0. US$16Electricity intensity could continue increasing.
  17. 17. MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY10% of the regional energy consumption can be savedthrough energy efficiency measures by 2030.40050060070080090010001990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030MtoePotential NegatoesProactive Total Final ConsumptionConservative Total Final ConsumptionConservative Total Final Consumption-10%17
  18. 18. OUTLOOK FOR CO2 EMISSIONSIn the Conservative Scenario, CO2 emissions wouldincrease +40% (reaching 3000Mt) in 2030.Only +9% in the Proactive scenario (600Mt less).1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0001990 2000 2010 2020 2030Mt CO2ConservativeScenarioProactiveScenarioConservativeScenario- 20%ConservativeScenario18
  19. 19. TO CONCLUDE – COMMON VISION ANDINNOVATIVE & ADAPTED SOLUTIONSFor a successful energy transition targeted by allRegional cooperation is a must, common vision butadapted strategies, policies and measures are neededConsidering its high impacts, EE should be given firstpriority. RE are also very much neededAn alternative path: possible but pending on actionsand means allowing removal of the existing barriersDemonstration, capacity building, technology transfer,best practices exchange, innovative financing schemes …All energy sources are neededRDD&I is very much needed and plays a major role inpromoting sustainable and inclusive economic growthand job creation (very important)Water, energy and climate change, closely interrelatedand important for the sustainable development in theregion
  20. 20. THE WAY FORWARDMediterranean countries have a common interestin preparing together their long-term futureNo unique or standard solution, butsustainability implies:Promotion of energy efficiency both on supply side anddemand side - energy sobrietyPreservation and reasonable use of fossil fuelsPromotion of RE and in particular solar energyStrengthening of the electric grid S/S and S/N tointegrate new plantsTechnology transfer and capacity building
  21. 21. Thank you for your attentionHouda BEN JANNET ALLALhouda.allal@ome.orgKuraymat CSP plant, Egypt