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Hounda Ben Jannet Allal, General Director of Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie
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Hounda Ben Jannet Allal, General Director of Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie

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Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - ...

Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy

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Hounda Ben Jannet Allal, General Director of Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Energy Prospects inthe MediterraneanRegionThe transition is a mustDr Houda Ben Jannet AllalEnergy transition in Europe: different pathways,same destination?Rome, 29 May 2013
  • 2. CROSS-ROADS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETSAND SEVERAL CHALLENGES AHEAD7% of world population, 500 million people, 90million more by 2030, nearly all in the South10% world GDP, $7.5 trillion of GDP, 2.5% p.a.average growth to 20308% of world’s primary energy demandImportant energy corridor / energy hubSeveral challenges calling for innovative energystrategiesSecurity of supply concernsFinancial crisis and important socio-political changesParticular vulnerability to climate change and itsimpacts
  • 3. ENERGY IN THE SMCS – COMMON DRIVERS ANDCHALLENGES AND ALSO DISPARITIESCommonHigh demographic development and rapid urbanisationaround the littoralHigh economic growthAccess to energy almost of all, efforts are still neededEnergy driver to the socio-economic developmentIncreasing climate change concerns and effectsImportant disparities S/S and also S/NAvailability of conventional energy resourcesFrom exporting to totally importing countriesLarge disparities with NMCs
  • 4. DISPARITIES, INTERDEPENDENCY ANDCONVERGENCE TENDENCY00,511,522,533,580 90 2000 2010PNMPSM0123456780 90 2000 2010PNMPSMTPES / capita (toe/cap)CO2 / capita (tCO2/cap)
  • 5. MEP 2011 - KEYMESSAGES
  • 6. BUSINESS AS USUAL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLECurrent energy trends in the Mediterranean are notsustainable. Conservative scenario is not an option:Overall energy demand could grow by 40% to2030.CO2 emissions would exceed 3000Mt in 2030, upfrom 2200Mt currently.Electricity boom ahead: average annual growthrate of about 2.8% and 5% in the South: overallover 380 GW of additional capacity needed.Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energymix and natural gas will overtake oil.High potential for RE & EE not fully exploited
  • 7. Energy for +80 million persons; +73% GDP/head.Electricity demand to multiply by 3Overall energy demand &CO2 emissions to double.HIGH CHALLENGES IN THE SOUTH
  • 8. OPPORTUNITIES …. EE&RECarlo Rubbia, aime rappeler que dans le Sahara, il« pleut » chaque année l’équivalent d’un baril de pétrolepar mètre carré, sous forme de rayonnement solaire
  • 9. THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE PATHUnder a Proactive Scenario:• Savings in primary (12%) and final energy (10%)• Overall demand and CO2 emissions just grow 20%• Less fossil fuel imports, less generation capacity needed4 5006 5008 50010 50012 5007008009001 0001 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001990 2000 2010 2020 2030GDP (billiondollars(ppps2005))MtoeProactive ScenarioConservative ScenarioGDP - 12%MEDITERRANEANENERGYDEMANDOUTLOOK, byScenarios
  • 10. ENERGY DEMAND BY FUELThe future will remain fossil fuel based (70%)Gas demand could increase by 70%, over 40% in analternative scenarioRES can take a relevant share:16% from 8% today02004006008001000120014001990 2009 CS2030 PS2030MtoeRenewables& WasteHydroNuclearGasOilCoal
  • 11. HEAVY RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUELS WILL ENDURE020040060080010001200Demand Production Demand Production Demand ProductionMtoeGasOilCoal2009 ConservativeScenario2030 ProactiveScenario2030MEDITERRANEAN FOSSILFUELDEMANDANDPRODUCTION OUTLOOKSource: OME
  • 12. GAS ERA AND OIL PEAKExport capacity would substantially increase underthe Proactive Scenario to over 180 bcm in 2030.-100102030405060708090100110Algeria Egypt Libya IsraelbcmGASEXPORTPOTENTIAL2010 CS2030 PS2030
  • 13. Electricity demand in the South will nearly tripleby 2030.MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD01000200030001990 2009 Conservative2030Proactive2030TWhSouthNorthMEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITYGENERATION84%70%54% 58%42%46%30%16%
  • 14. 200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand.32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.ADDITIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY NEEDEDINSOUTH& EASTMEDITERRANEAN16%14%5%17%6%5%49%50%40%3%6%18%14%15%2%13%28%50100150200250300350120GW 321GW 289GWGWNon - hydroRenewablesHydroNuclearGasOilCoal2009 2030 PS2030 CS
  • 15. RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION05001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5001990 2000 2010 2020 2030TWhRenewablesHydroNuclearGasOilCoalCoal14%Oil8%Gas33%Nuclear25%Hydro14%RES6%201036%RES electricity increased by more than 2.5 times in 1990-2010Renewables are expected to compete directly with natural gasas the dominant electricity source by 2030 (over 1000 TWh)
  • 16. DIFFERENT DECOUPLING PATTERNSEnergy intensity is decreasing leading to a decouplingof GDP and energy demand.0.080.10.120.140.161990 2000 2010 2020 2030toe/thousand US$--MedPS Energy IntensityMedCS Energy Intensity--MedPS Electricity intensityMed CS Electricity intensity0.080.130.180.230.28KWh/thousand US$16Electricity intensity could continue increasing.
  • 17. MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY10% of the regional energy consumption can be savedthrough energy efficiency measures by 2030.40050060070080090010001990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030MtoePotential NegatoesProactive Total Final ConsumptionConservative Total Final ConsumptionConservative Total Final Consumption-10%17
  • 18. OUTLOOK FOR CO2 EMISSIONSIn the Conservative Scenario, CO2 emissions wouldincrease +40% (reaching 3000Mt) in 2030.Only +9% in the Proactive scenario (600Mt less).1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0001990 2000 2010 2020 2030Mt CO2ConservativeScenarioProactiveScenarioConservativeScenario- 20%ConservativeScenario18
  • 19. TO CONCLUDE – COMMON VISION ANDINNOVATIVE & ADAPTED SOLUTIONSFor a successful energy transition targeted by allRegional cooperation is a must, common vision butadapted strategies, policies and measures are neededConsidering its high impacts, EE should be given firstpriority. RE are also very much neededAn alternative path: possible but pending on actionsand means allowing removal of the existing barriersDemonstration, capacity building, technology transfer,best practices exchange, innovative financing schemes …All energy sources are neededRDD&I is very much needed and plays a major role inpromoting sustainable and inclusive economic growthand job creation (very important)Water, energy and climate change, closely interrelatedand important for the sustainable development in theregion
  • 20. THE WAY FORWARDMediterranean countries have a common interestin preparing together their long-term futureNo unique or standard solution, butsustainability implies:Promotion of energy efficiency both on supply side anddemand side - energy sobrietyPreservation and reasonable use of fossil fuelsPromotion of RE and in particular solar energyStrengthening of the electric grid S/S and S/N tointegrate new plantsTechnology transfer and capacity building
  • 21. Thank you for your attentionHouda BEN JANNET ALLALhouda.allal@ome.orgKuraymat CSP plant, Egypt