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Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany
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Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany


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Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - …

Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy

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  • 1. The energy transition in Europa: differentpathways, same destination?29.05.2013
  • 2. The German government has set different targets to shift the wholeenergy system to amore sustainable oneSelected Energiewende targets2Share ofrenewables ingross energyconsumption(%)Reduction ofgreenhousegas emissions(%)Share ofrenewables ingrosselectricityconsumption(%)Reduction ofprimary energyconsumptionvs. 2008 (%)Reduction ofelectricityconsumptionvs. 2008 (%)Reduction ofenergyconsumptionfortransportationvs. 2005 (%)
  • 3. German Energiewende / Energy Market / Facts & FiguresThe Nuclear Phaseout3Development of installed capacity of nuclear power in Germany (in MW)Source: BDEW7% of electricity generation(2010)23%ofelectricitygeneration(2010)Future necessary baseload yetunclearCurrent market environmentdiscourages investment inconventional generationRegional perspective to thenuclear phaseout. Southern-Germany especially affected„Baseload capacity will needto be replaced
  • 4. GERMAN ENERGY POLICY –A BLUEPRINT FOR THE WORLD?März 2013 40% (0%)56%(65%)44% (35%)Do you expect that your country copycats parts of the Germanenergy policy approach?Yes, the full concept could be copied Parts could be copied No, nothing could be copiedWeltenergierat - DeutschlandWeltenergierat - Deutschland In Klammern Ergebnisse für 2011
  • 5. GERMAN ENERGY POLICY –A BLUEPRINT FOR THE WORLD?März 2013 524% (42%)76% (58%)In your country, are the technical and economic conditions given tofollow the German policy path?yes noWeltenergierat - DeutschlandWeltenergierat - Deutschland In Klammern Ergebnisse für 2011
  • 6. GERMAN ENERGY POLICY –A BLUEPRINT FOR THE WORLD?März 2013 60% (0%)16% (27%)72% (37%)12% (36%)How do you assess the feasibility of the German goals?…most likely implementes fully and without delay …most likely implemented fully but with delay…most likely implemented partly and with delay …most likely not feasible at allWeltenergierat - Deutschland In Klammern Ergebnisse für 2011Weltenergierat - Deutschland
  • 7. GERMAN ENERGY POLICY –A BLUEPRINT FOR THE WORLD?März 2013 716% (10%)60% (75%)24% (15%)What impact do you expect for the economic power of Germany dueto the current energy policy?Short-/medium term (until 2020)Strengthening of the economic powerWeakening of the economic powerno impactWeltenergierat - DeutschlandWeltenergierat - Deutschland In Klammern Ergebnisse für 2011
  • 8. Current status of Energiewende: mixed pictureBDI Energiewende navigator 2012 – results at aglance8Economic Feasibility46 % 58 %2010 2011Public AcceptanceN. a. 76 %2010 2011Innovation79 % 86 %2010 2011Impact on climate andenvironment87 % 96 %2010 2011Good progress due to rapid extension of renewable generation capacities Share of renewables in primary energy and electricity consumption with complete targetachievement Transportation sector behind expectationsEconomic feasibility critical due to increasing electricity prices Electricity prices on high levels compared to other countries Constant energy consumption despite GDP growthSufficient generation capacities, but grid extension behind schedule Generation capacities currently covering demand (only regional need for action Network capacities still sufficient, but extension lagging behindPublic acceptance high in general, but low when increasing cost come into play Broad support in population; cost increase regarded as critical issue Industry expecting higher cost; supply security regarded uncriticalR&D expenditures in field of energy remaining on low levels Public environment-related R&D expenditures in 2010 less than in 2008 Increasing share of "Green Energy Patents"Supply Security116 % 91 %2010 2011Target achieved (10% tolerance) 89% to 75% target achievement Less than 75% target achievement
  • 9. BDI "Energiewende-Navigator" – outcomes & results« Energiewende-Navigator » - the BDI’s own monitoring tool9FrageGermans in general show high support for the „Energiewende“ but don‘t support higher prices
  • 10. Implementing the Energiewende requires investments of ~ €200 b into the German electricity sector until 2030Forecast of cumulated necessary investments into German electricity system (targetscenario)10Summebis 2050~ 669~ 200 forEnergiewendeimplementationElectricitygenerationStorage Grid ConsumptionTotal until2030Total until2050Cumulated investmentsbillion EurosMaintenanceExpansiontransmission gridExpansion distribution gridWind - offshoreWind - onshorePVOther renewables~77~64~58~18Conventional~34Source: BCG
  • 11. The Energiewende means worldwide revenue potentials withend products of more than € 70 b p.a. for German enterprisesin 2020Forecast of revenue potentials, fuel imports and CO2 emissions11Source: BCG
  • 12. On the other hand unit cost of electricity will rise by 15 – 35% comparedto continuing the current system until 2030Forecast of unit cost development of electricity12Asset annuity 2010Investments renewablesInvestments conventionalInvestments storageInvestments grid/ smart meterImportsO&MCO2 (70 €/t in 2050)Fuel costAdditional fuel costSource: BCG
  • 13. Electricity and gas prices evolve into locational disadvantages inGermany and over EuropeIndustry prices electricity and gas – Germany vs. USA131022030050100150Gas cost (industry)/electricity cost (industry)(in €/MWhth/€/MWhel w/o tax & dues)90961101191232025202020152010200520001006552219861501690444816Industry prices electricity and gas – Germany vs. USAShale gas revolution in US: gas price dropfor industry ~ 40 % between 2008 and 2010Dampening affetcs on US electricity pricesLow European shale gas potentials; nosignificant US LNG exports before 2020No real potential for price reductions of gasand electricity in Europe until 2020US advantage (compared to Europe) interms of energy cost at least until 2020ProjectionUS Gas5Electricity Germany - Max1Gas Germany3US electricity41. Entwicklung basierend auf Trendstudie 2030+ Szenario "Zielerreichung Klimaschutz" Preispfad B, ohne Steuern und Abgaben 2. Entwicklung basierend auf Trendstudie 2030+Szenario ""Fiktives fossiles System" Preispfad A ohne Steuern und Abgaben 3. Annahmen Gaspreisentwicklung basieren auf Trendstudie 2030+ Preispfad A, ohne Steuern undAbgaben 4. Preise Industriestrom, ohne Steuern und Abgaben (EIA) 5. Preise Industriegas, ohne Steuern und Abgaben (EIA)Quelle: Eurostat; EIA; BCGElectricity Germany - Min2
  • 14. In the case of no further grid expansion TSOs will have to shutdownrenewables from 2016 onwards to a significant degreeOverview of renewable shutdowns (in TWh) subject to lacking grid expansion14Per region („Startnetz“ 2022)today‘s grid„ErgebnisnetzNEP“„StartnetzNEP“Over time per grid szenarioExpanding the grid is a crucial aspect for implementing the Energiewende.Source: EWI
  • 15. More than one third of additional renewable generation in 2022 will only contribute tothe increase of German electricity export surplusOverview: selected expected electricity flows in 2022 (target scenario)15• Generation and load inGermany will diverge• Hours of high feeding-in ofrenewables and low demandcreate market incentives toexport electricity abroad• In 2022 the electricity generatedfrom renewables can only beintegrated into the Germanelectricity market by about twothirdThe Energiewende is a European challenge and therefore has to be approachedon the European level.Net replacement of conventionallygenerated electricitySource: EWI
  • 16. The expansion of renewable energies will be largely based on volatileenergy sourcesForecast of installed capacity of renewable energy16maximumannual load2011minimumannual load2011 PVWindOtherrenewablesSource: Prognos
  • 17. Installed capacities, guarantied capacity and load (2023)17Quelle: Szenario B aus dem Szenariorahmen für denNEP Strom 2013, dena Netzstudie I
  • 18. Currently loads in Germany exhibit rather moderate fluctuations…Residual load curve 2012 (load minus renewable feed-in) Germany18Source: PrognosAssumption: must-run-capacity: 20 GW
  • 19. … whereas volatility will be much higher in 2030 including negativevaluesResidual load curve 2030 (load minus renewable feed-in) Germany19Source: PrognosAssumption: must-run-capacity: 10 GW
  • 20. Current European energy and climate policy overemphasizes the objective ofenvironmental sustainability which leads to challengesObjective overview of European energy and climate policy20Source: BE „Energy & Climate“ 2030, Issue Team1