13.02, Wennersten — Lecture on global perspectives on energy

Global perspective on energy Renewables Wind power Hydro power Solar power Thermal surface Thermal geo Biomass Non Renewables Oil Coal Natural gas Peat Nuclear

Non renewables Ronald Wennersten/KTH 2

Ronald Wennersten/KTH 3

Energy in figures Ronald Wennersten/KTH 4

Energy in figures - Consumption Per capita energy consumption of different parts of the world in relation to China 0 5 10 15 20 China 1,00 United States 14,16 Japan 6,88 Western Europé 6,80 Former SU and Eastern Europé 4,88 India 0,48 Dev. Parts of the world as a whole 1,04 Ronald Wennersten/KTH 5

Energy in figures – energy intensity Energy intensity = energy use per 1$ of gross product Energy use relative to economic output USA 200 World as a whole 150 Former Soviet and Eastern Europé 100 China as Ref 50 OECD 0 Canada Energy intensity of different countries India Japan China Ronald Wennersten/KTH 6

Predicted energy sources • Gas and oil predicted to run out, but coal is plentiful. Giving CO2 emissions for a far future. Ronald Wennersten/KTH 7

Environmental issues related to energy • Climate change (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc) • Other pollutants from fossil fuel combustion • Ecological damage from hydroelectric dams • Problems associated with nuclear cycle • ... Climate Change – from transport, power generation, heating… Ronald Wennersten/KTH 9

Emissions reduction - role of technology Assumption of technology improvements: # Improved efficiency of fossil fuel energy # Nuclear # Renewables Required to stabilize CO2 level in atmosphere at 550 ppm: # Innovative technologies currently non-commercial # Carbon capture storage # Hydrogen production/advanced transport # Solar # Biotechnology Ronald Wennersten/KTH 11

Strategies for tackling the problems related to GHG and Climate Change The problems cannot be solved only by replacing fossile fules with renewable resources There have to be actions taken on many levels: Technology Economy (Fees ….) Political (Legislation…) Social (Change in peoples behaviour … These actions have to be coordinated in a cost effective way The cost for action lower than cost of consequences Ronald Wennersten/KTH 12

Future Energy Options • Short to mid-term : Enhanced use of natural gas, coal, nuclear? • Long-term : Renewable energy resources Ronald Wennersten/KTH 13

What about nuclear power? Ronald Wennersten/KTH 14

Which energy system has the lowest risk? Nuclear power Coal power Ronald Wennersten/KTH 15

Spreading of radioactive material Ronald Wennersten/KTH 17

Which energy system has the lowest risk? Nuclear power Coal power Ronald Wennersten/KTH 18

Natural gas Least polluting fossil fuel Greater portions of proved and potential reserves of NG outside the Middle East NG’s worldwide energy share over the next 20 years: 2.7-3.2% average growth rate of > 40% greater than that of oil Ronald Wennersten/KTH 19

Renewable energy Hydro power Wind power Solar power Thermal surface Thermal geo Biomass Ronald Wennersten/KTH 20

Hydro power • - Large effects on ecosystems through dams and running water • - Conflicts through change of land use • + Control of flooding Ronald Wennersten/KTH 21

Wind power Where both wind speed and land are abundant Most competitive with conventionally generated electricity Annual wind power growth rate: >10% Intermittency Ronald Wennersten/KTH 22

Solar power Photovolitic efficiency Photovoltaic • Theoretical 29 % Production of hydrogen • Laboratory 23 % • Commercial product 15 % Solar thermal Integration in low exergy systems Ronald Wennersten/KTH 23

Geothermal 0.3 % of global electricity consumption > 5% of national electricity consumption – only six countries (Iceland, Philippines, New Zealand, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Kenya) Capital intensive Ronald Wennersten/KTH 24

Biomass Direct heating Boiler fuel to generate electricity Liquid fuel for transport CO2-neutral ? Uncomplicated technology Relatively low cost Conflicts? Ronald Wennersten/KTH 25

COGENERATION • Use of wasted low grade energy sources from the power plants for heating and cooling Better efficiency for the power plants • Less heat losses Drop in toxic air emissions Ronald Wennersten/KTH 26

Some examples from Sweden Ronald Wennersten/KTH 27

The 15 national objectives Reduced Climate Impact Clean Air Natural Acidification Only Safe Radiation Environment A Protective Ozone Layer A Non-Toxic Environment Sustainable Forests A Good Built Environment A Magnificent Mountain Landscape A Varied Agricultural Landscape Zero Eutrophication Flourishing Lakes and Streams Good-Quality Groundwater A Balanced Marine Environment, Flourishing Coastal Areas and Archipelagos Thriving Wetlands Ronald Wennersten/KTH 28

The 15 national objectives Reduced Climate Impact Clean Air Natural Acidification Only Safe Radiation Environment A Protective Ozone Layer A Non-Toxic Environment Sustainable Forests A Good Built Environment A Magnificent Mountain Landscape A Varied Agricultural Landscape Zero Eutrophication Flourishing Lakes and Streams Good-Quality Groundwater A Balanced Marine Environment, Flourishing Coastal Areas and Archipelagos Thriving Wetlands Ronald Wennersten/KTH 29

Municipalities Heating plant Waste water Treatment plant Bio-fuels Ash Waste products (sludge) Fertilisation of energy forest Ronald Wennersten/KTH 31

Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm • One of the biggest housing developments in Europe • Twice as good as conventional projects • Energy: 60kWh/m², only renewable. • Transport: Reduction 20%. Bus, underground, bicycle, walking 80% of total. • Waste: Reduction 20%. Harmful and hazardous waste reduced 50%. 60% of nitrogen and phosphorus back to farming. • Water: Reduce to half. 95% of phosphorus to farming. Local storm water treatment. • Building material: Metals, gravel from raw material reduced to half. Reduction of harmful substances with 70%. Create good examples! Ronald Wennersten/KTH 32

Waste management - state of management in Sweden Household waste (2004) Hazardous 0.6% Recycling 33% Incineration 47% Biological treatment Landfill 10.4% 9% Ronald Wennersten/KTH 33

Comparison of Two Methods of Energy Efficient Houses Low Exergy Systems • Systems that can utilize low valued energy in heating and cooling, where the media temperature is close to required indoor air temperature or through use of heat pumps A • S Surface Heating and Cooling • A Air Heating and cooling S • G Generation / Conversion of Cold and Heat • T Thermal Storage • D Distribution T G Ronald Wennersten/KTH D 34

Communities Ronald Wennersten/KTH 35

Heat pumps for domestic heating and cooling 260 MW heating and 48 MW cooling Ronald Wennersten/KTH 37

•30 years of financing of development of heat pumps and systems in co operation between authorities, universities and companies •Demonstration systems ”Energy collected from all heat pump installations in Sweden, would pay for all public funding of heat pump research since 1975, in just four days” EFF-SYS, Final report Ronald Wennersten/KTH 39

Global trends Ronald Wennersten/KTH 40

Total dependence on fossile fuels The industrialized society is built upon the transformation of natural resources into different goods. This transformation has been possible only through the use of relatively cheap fossil fuels. Today we are facing a new situation where these cheap fossil fuel resources are becoming scarcer. Ronald Wennersten/KTH 41

What is the problem? • Climate change • Social instability • International conflicts Ronald Wennersten/KTH 42

Energy and Globalization • Globalization has stimulated the use of energy even more. Oil and gas demand are high and growing, so much so that the world consumes twice as much oil as is found today • Countries like China and India have ever growing energy needs, the world does and will continue to depend primarily on oil and gas for our energy requirements now and into the foreseeable future Ronald Wennersten/KTH 43

Decreasing supplies • The situation is now that the places with the greatest demand can't supply their own needs • Over the next few decades, oil and gas production in the North Sea, North America and China are expected to fall, or rise too little to keep pace with demand. Only a few places have surplus reserves — chiefly the Middle East, Africa and Russia. • Decision-makers in the energy industry, government, and international agencies thus face difficult decisions. How will the supply-demand problem be resolved? Ronald Wennersten/KTH 44

Globalization solves the problem? • One possibility is a continuation of globalization. According to this vision, free markets will ensure that investment capital and fossil fuels alike are distributed efficiently. Ronald Wennersten/KTH 45

Deglobalization? • At the other extreme is a future that involves more regulation and confrontation • Rather than free markets, anxious governments will decide how capital and energy supplies are apportioned • Rather than globalization, this would be \"deglobalization\" with a continuation of the ‘old ways’ of bi-lateral political agreements securing point to point long term supply lines and markets Ronald Wennersten/KTH 46

Global competition • We can see many signs of such a development today. China is very active in developing bi- lateral cooperation in Africa to secure supplies of energy and mineral resources as well as gaining control of transport routes e.g. directly pipe crude from the Middle East to Xinjiang • United States has a global strategy for securing energy supplies where the Middle East has a central role as well as controlling transport routes e.g. the Strait of Malacca. Lately they have also announced increased activity in Africa Ronald Wennersten/KTH 47

Global competition • The vast oil and natural gas reserves in the Caspian Sea basin sparked the interest of various international actors beginning in the early 1990s • Today, development of mechanisms (such as the transnational Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline) to bring these resources to the market continues with involvement of various stakeholders—from multinational oil corporations to the governments of former Soviet states Ronald Wennersten/KTH 48

Global competition - Nationalism • Russian energy group Gazprom has recently stated in a press release that they will develop the Shtokman field without foreign partners. The Shtokman gas condensate deposit lies in the Barents Sea, in the north of Russia. • The Shtokman gas will instead be piped to European markets. The Gazprom change in policy came as a total surprise for large multinational oil companies who had expected to get possibilities to take part in the exploration of the vast gas field. Ronald Wennersten/KTH 49

Are there sustainable energy systems? Honestly I don´t how to get this burning in all eternity And is it really socially acceptable? Ronald Wennersten/KTH 50

13.02, Wennersten — Lecture on global perspectives on energy

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