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13.02, Nikiforovich — Lecture on UES

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SD Course in Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, 12-23 Febraury 2006

SD Course in Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, 12-23 Febraury 2006

Published in: Technology, Economy & Finance

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  • 1. Erasmus Mundus Action 4 project “Promoting European Education in Sustainable Development” TEMPUS Joint European Project_ 25163_ 2004 “Bridging the gap between University and businesses” Ukrainian Energy System Professor Eugene Nikiforovich Head of Department Institute of Hydromechanics National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine National Technical University of Ukraine “KPI” Course SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT NTUU “KPI”, 12-23 February 2007
  • 2. Content • Foreword: Towards a sustainable energy future • Modern tendencies in the energy system development: Hydrogen Economy • Ukraine’s Positioning on the International Energy Markets • Forecasted Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine’s Fuel- and-Energy Demand • Electric Power Balance • Conclusions
  • 3. Hydrogen Economy)
  • 4. Solar-Hydrogen Energy Cycle
  • 5. Ukraine’s Positioning on the International Energy Markets Disadvantages: • shortage of explored reserves of domestic natural gas and oil, and of nuclear fuel of domestic production; • no diversification of the energy supply sources; • domestic hydropower generation capacities have neared the end of their potential; • high technogenic burden on the environment; • unsatisfactory technical condition of some energy facilities, including energy transportation systems. Advantages: • sufficient natural reserves of coal and nuclear fuel components, such as uranium and zirconium; • excessive capacities for oil-and-gas transportation, and electric power exports; • advantageous geographical and geopolitical position of the country; • well-developed energy infrastructure; • highly-skilled human resources.
  • 6. Overview of Primary Energy Resources Utilization and Energy Consumption by End Users Indices of Energy Dependence for Ukraine and Other Countries, in 2000 - 2004, (%) 90,0 97,9 80,1 82,1 68,9 74,3 64,7 71,6 61,4 57,7 60,7 50,0 55,9 35,9 34,1 33,3 26,5 23,8 11,6 -27,2 -8,9 Germany Sweden Greece Italy Austria Hungary Ukraine Denmark France Ireland Netherlands Czechia Estonia Spain Romania Poland Belgium Finland England Luxemburg Portugal
  • 7. Primary Energy Consumption Pattern: Ukraine, EU-15, the U.S.A. and the global average Global Ukraine EU-15 U.S.A. average Natural gas 21% 41% 22% 24% Oil 35% 19% 41% 38% Coal 23% 19% 16% 23% Uranium 7% 17% 15% 8% Hydro- and other renewable energy sources 14% 4% 6% 7% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 8. Specific Annual Primary Energy Consumption in the World, tons of standard fuel per capita (source: International Energy Agency) The energy supply level of a country is normally described by a specific primary energy consumption rate expressed in tons of standard fuel per capita 1990 2000 2005 15,6 The U.S. 14,2 15,5 15,6 Japan 5,2 6,2 6,3 EU 15 states 5,7 6,2 6,4 China 0,8 1,0 1,2 India 0,3 0,5 0,5 6,3 6,4 6,2 Turkey 1,3 1,6 1,8 4,3 3,6 Eastern Europe ЄвропаЄвропа 4,6 3,4 3,6 1,2 1,8 CIS 7,5 5,1 6,2 0,5 Ukraine 7,1 3,7 4,3 T u rkey T h e U .S. E U -15 C h in a In d ia Eu ro p e U krain e C IS Jap an Eastern
  • 9. Specific Annual Power Consumption in the World and Ukraine, in kWh per capita (source: International Energy Agency) the overall technological level of a country is indirectly characterized by a specific power consumption rate that is expressed in kWh per capita 12792 2005 7727 6813 4731 3458 3789 1170 1592 485 Turkey Japan Eastern U.S. EU-15 China India Ukraine CIS Europe
  • 10. GDP Energy Content in the World, kg of standard fuel per USD (source: Key World Energy Statistics, 2003, 2004) Overall fuel-and-energy efficiency of an economy is normally described by a primary energy consumption to GDP ratio (that is known as a GDP energy content) 0,89 0,84 0,50 0,43 0,43 0,40 0,39 0,36 0,34 0,34 0,34 0,33 0,33 0,30 0,26 0,26 0,24 0,26 0,24 0,23 0,20 0,20 Sweden Czechia Canada Austria France Spain Finland Poland Lithuania Ukraine Russia Australia China Japan Denmark Turkey Belarus U.S. U.K. Global average Germany Hungary
  • 11. Forecasted Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine’s Fuel-and-Energy Demand Forecast for GDP Growth Rates, UAH billion (price base of 2005) 1792,3 Best Case 1700 UAH billion (price base of 2005) Base Case 1397,2 1400 Worst Case 1286,2 1059,3 1056,9 1100 791,9 677,7 852,4 800 575,1 929,4 523,7 809,8 691,5 500 413,9* 582,5 476,2 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
  • 12. Forecasted Consumption of Primary Energy and the Structural and Technological Energy Saving Indices for the Period until 2030, mln tons of standard fuel (Base Case Scenario) Structural energy saving Technological energy saving Consumption of primary energy 120,3 54,4 198,1 25,3 137,5 7,9 109,8 66,4 302,7 227,0 244,3 200,6 213,8 2005* 2010 2015 2020 2030
  • 13. Ukraine Power Industry • Installed capacity of electric power • Electric power production by EPS • Main power generating capacities • Electric power consumption • Structure of power resources in electric power and heat production by EPS • NPS of Ukraine • Electric Power Balance
  • 14. Forecast of Electric Power Consumption by Consumer Groups (million kW/hour) 169825 2005 2030 91793 93239 50358 31900 26444 25035 21040 12893 15296 10095 9235 3426 5750 4707 948 Industry Agricultural Transport Construction Communal Other non- Population Pow er sector sector sector and industrial consumed for household consumers its consumers transmission through networks
  • 15. Structure of Generating Capacity of Ukrainian Power Plants (base-case scenario) Local plants and Local othe r plants and facilities other NPP 3.4 facilities 29.5 6.5% NPP 6.3 33.3% 13.8 7.1% 26.6% HPP and TPP and TPP and HPSP CHPP CHPP 42.2 HPP and 4.7 30.1 47.6% HPSP 9.1% 57.8% 10.5 11.9% 2005 2030
  • 16. Development of Electric Power Generation (billion kWh) 450 420,1 TPP and CHPP 400 NPP 167,0 HPP and HPSP 39,8% 350 Local plants and other sources 307,0 300 118,6 251,0 billion kWh 250 210,2 114,4 219,0 185,2 200 86,6 52,1% 75,5 158,9 150 40,8% 110,5 101,2 100 88,8 47,9% 50 14,6 16,6 18,6 12,3 12,5 8,6 9,9 11,6 12,9 15,5 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
  • 17. Basic Indices of the Development of Electric Power Industry of Ukraine for the Period until 2030 Indicators 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 185236 210200 251000 307000 420100 А. Power supply, total ((billion kWh) I.I. Power generation, total 185236 210200 251000 307000 420100 Growth rate to the last period (%), including: - 13,5% 19,4% 22,3% 36,8% 1). General-purpose power plants, including: 176592 200290 239450 294100 404600 А). Thermal and Combined Heat-and-power Plants 75515 86590 114350 118600 167000 (TPP and CHPP), percentage in total generation 40,8% 41,2% 45,6% 38,6% 39,8% Б). Hydropower plants (HPP)* 12128 10300 11400 12700 14100 percentage in total generation 6,5% 4,9% 4,5% 4,1% 3,4% В). Hydroelectric pumped storage plants (HPSP) 193 2200 3200 3900 4500 percentage in total generation 0,1% 1,0% 1,3% 1,3% 1,1% Г). Nuclear power plants (NPP) 88756 101200 110500 158900 219000 percentage in total generation 47,9% 48,1% 44,0% 51,8% 52,1% 2). Local power plants and other sources, 8644 9910 11550 12900 15500 percentage in total generation, including: 4,7% 4,7% 4,6% 4,2% 3,7% А). Local power plants** 8593 9775 10665 11300 13400 Б). Power generation capacities using renewable energy sources (except small HPP) 51 135 885 1600 2100 including: other local sources of power 43 85 85 100 100 II. Electric power imports 0 0 0 0 0
  • 18. Forecasted Fuel Balance for TPPs, CHPPs and Local Generating Plants (taking account of local sources) until 2030 (million tons of standard fuel). 2005 2030 Coal Coal 19.2 59.4 51.8% 85.1% Gas Gas Fuel oil Gas 17.6 Fuel oil Fuel oil 0.3 10.1 10,1 47.4% 0.3 0,3 0.8% 14.5% 14,5% 0.4% 0,4%
  • 19. Conclusions • To ensure forecasted economic and social development of the country until 2030 according to the base-case scenario it is envisaged to increase electricity generation from 185.2 billion kWh in 2005 to 420.1 billion kWh in 2030, heat generation from 241.0 million Gcal to 430.9 million Gcal correspondingly. • The volume of fuel imported for electricity and heat generation by power plants is planned to be reduced from 41.4 million tons of standard fuel in 2005 to 12.4 million tons of standard fuel in 2030. • Due to application of the modern technologies of coal combustion, use of new equipment for purification of emissions from TPPs, as well as further development of renewable resources of energy, technogenic burden on the environment will be reduced substantially.
  • 20. The implementation of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine under the base-case scenario of economic development guarantees the fulfillment of tasks and resolving the problems of the fuel and energy complex, the major ones being identified as follows: • Ensuring reliable and quality supply of energy products to the national economy and population, enhancing economic efficiency and environmental safety based on the introduction of advanced technologies in process of upgrading, reconstruction and construction of energy facilities; • Reducing GDP energy content from 0.48 kg of standard fuel/UAH registered in 2005 to 0.24 kg of standard fuel/UAH in 2030 (that is, by factor of two), due to structural and technological energy saving; 0,6 0,48 0,5 0,37 kg sf/UAH 0,4 0,31 0,28 0,3 0,24 0,2 0,1 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 • Optimizing the electricity generation structure by types of fuel keeping the following proportions: nuclear power plants – 52.1%, thermal power plants, combined heat and power plants, industrial plants – 42.9%, other types of power generation – 5.0%. Such electricity generation proportions will ensure economically effective operation of power plants and create conditions for regulation and stable operation of the United Energy System of Ukraine;