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The Social Disruption Index
A Joint Program of W2O Group and
The Social Starts Fund
How Technology will help evaluate itself
• Patterns exist in how people embrace new concepts
– We follow the same approaches to evaluate, invest and build over and over
• Markets reveal if they are ready for innovation
– Innovation can be ahead of market readiness, so it’s not just technology; it’s behavior
• Humans also create, follow patterns based on what they desire
– We know what we want, act on it and show it via our data trails online
• Predictive models can now help identify innovative concepts, market
niches and human change agents at an earlier stage.
– We need to look around the next corner to find the new edge for opportunity
A new index can now be created to help us understand the
significance of human behavior, technology advances and
investment decisions in the face of transformational change
The Social Disruption Index
What Is The Social Disruption Index?
• We are currently in a revolution, driven by social/mobile
technology, that is transforming how we communicate in every
part of life, both personally and in business.
• This transformation is both destroying and creating businesses and
business models; every industry is, or will be, affected
• It is not a question of IF an industry will be disrupted, but WHEN.
• The Social Disruption Index (SDI) measures relative disruption by
industry segment.
• The SDI measures and analyzes whether an industry is in a pre-
disruptive state, currently being disrupted, in a post-disruptive
state, or anywhere along that timeline (its "Disruption Stage").
A simple model drawn from hundreds of attributes
How Do We Measure Disruption?
• Dozens of attributes within three key factors for any given
industry as an indication of its Disruption Stage, such as:
• Start-Ups – how many, how big, how much momentum?
– Start-ups reflect perceived opportunity
• Investors – How much $ is flowing, at what stage
– Investing is the arms race of innovation
• Marketplace – How restless are customers, leaders; how
are their habits driving change(or not)?
– Has technology advance reshaped action or just rhetoric
Market Factors
1% 9% 90%
Social
Disruption
Index
Understanding how consumer/customer behavior changes as a
technology takes shape is critical to watch, learn and understand
The 1,9,90 Model
1 9 90
Influencers
• Top thought leaders – 1%
or less who define the
conversation.
Advocates
• 2nd concentric circle of
influence – where the top
influencers interpret and
share influencer
information.
Enthusiasts
• Like-minded people who
unconsciously react to and
shape markets based on what
they find online or hear via
friends/networks
We will also look at the elasticity of innovation
Markets are not all equal in response to technological disruption
What Factors Enable or Stall Disruption?
• All enterprises and industries pressured by the new connections
among people and how information is disseminated
• Some sectors naturally more prone to disruption than others.
• The SDI will analyze multiple factors, some of which accelerate
while others stall disruption, including:
– Presence of new start-ups / delta of venture investment
– Commodity vs. specialized nature of products or services
– Relevance of higher information velocity
– Legal and regulatory framework and barriers
A Visual Representation of Change
Business Model Human Resources Industry Turnover
Status of Disruption
New
Entrants
Commodity
Services
Info
Velocity
Facilitating / Dampening Factors
Legal/
Regulatory Overall Disruption Stage: 3 (Early)
Can Also Measure Start Up Potential
• Openness to disruption vs. number of start-ups
• Best opportunity space: high disruption/few start-ups
• Worst opportunity space: regulatory issues, many
contenders
• Can’t measure individual start-up success, but can
measure comparative market potential
• Where are start-ups most likely to penetrate next?
SDI Has Marketing Impacts
• Channel effectiveness will vary by disruption stage
• Messaging modes will shift
• Power of consumers will rise as disruption deepens
• Radical shifts in tactics as disruption takes hold
• A new normal emerges in post-disruption
Netflix Social Data vs. Actual Revenue
Data
15
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
Members vs. Predictive Variable
All Mentions Total members at end of period
Predicted vs. Actual Netflix Revenue
Data
16
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
December
31, 2012
March 31,
2013
June 30,
2013
September
30, 2013
December
31, 2013
March 31,
2014
June 30,
2014
Revenue
Actual Revenues Social Predicted Members Market Forecasts
Next Steps
• We want your help!
• Join us as early partners and see SDI before anyone else
• Initial release by June 2015
• Available to W2O clients & select investors
• Summary data available to media
• Post-release, 1 category deep dive each quarter
• By end of 2015, release of broad quarterly cross-category
disruption index

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M. Edelhart_Social Disruption Index_SXSW2015

  • 1. The Social Disruption Index A Joint Program of W2O Group and The Social Starts Fund
  • 2. How Technology will help evaluate itself • Patterns exist in how people embrace new concepts – We follow the same approaches to evaluate, invest and build over and over • Markets reveal if they are ready for innovation – Innovation can be ahead of market readiness, so it’s not just technology; it’s behavior • Humans also create, follow patterns based on what they desire – We know what we want, act on it and show it via our data trails online • Predictive models can now help identify innovative concepts, market niches and human change agents at an earlier stage. – We need to look around the next corner to find the new edge for opportunity
  • 3. A new index can now be created to help us understand the significance of human behavior, technology advances and investment decisions in the face of transformational change The Social Disruption Index
  • 4. What Is The Social Disruption Index? • We are currently in a revolution, driven by social/mobile technology, that is transforming how we communicate in every part of life, both personally and in business. • This transformation is both destroying and creating businesses and business models; every industry is, or will be, affected • It is not a question of IF an industry will be disrupted, but WHEN. • The Social Disruption Index (SDI) measures relative disruption by industry segment. • The SDI measures and analyzes whether an industry is in a pre- disruptive state, currently being disrupted, in a post-disruptive state, or anywhere along that timeline (its "Disruption Stage").
  • 5. A simple model drawn from hundreds of attributes
  • 6. How Do We Measure Disruption? • Dozens of attributes within three key factors for any given industry as an indication of its Disruption Stage, such as: • Start-Ups – how many, how big, how much momentum? – Start-ups reflect perceived opportunity • Investors – How much $ is flowing, at what stage – Investing is the arms race of innovation • Marketplace – How restless are customers, leaders; how are their habits driving change(or not)? – Has technology advance reshaped action or just rhetoric
  • 7. Market Factors 1% 9% 90% Social Disruption Index
  • 8. Understanding how consumer/customer behavior changes as a technology takes shape is critical to watch, learn and understand
  • 9. The 1,9,90 Model 1 9 90 Influencers • Top thought leaders – 1% or less who define the conversation. Advocates • 2nd concentric circle of influence – where the top influencers interpret and share influencer information. Enthusiasts • Like-minded people who unconsciously react to and shape markets based on what they find online or hear via friends/networks
  • 10. We will also look at the elasticity of innovation Markets are not all equal in response to technological disruption
  • 11. What Factors Enable or Stall Disruption? • All enterprises and industries pressured by the new connections among people and how information is disseminated • Some sectors naturally more prone to disruption than others. • The SDI will analyze multiple factors, some of which accelerate while others stall disruption, including: – Presence of new start-ups / delta of venture investment – Commodity vs. specialized nature of products or services – Relevance of higher information velocity – Legal and regulatory framework and barriers
  • 12. A Visual Representation of Change Business Model Human Resources Industry Turnover Status of Disruption New Entrants Commodity Services Info Velocity Facilitating / Dampening Factors Legal/ Regulatory Overall Disruption Stage: 3 (Early)
  • 13. Can Also Measure Start Up Potential • Openness to disruption vs. number of start-ups • Best opportunity space: high disruption/few start-ups • Worst opportunity space: regulatory issues, many contenders • Can’t measure individual start-up success, but can measure comparative market potential • Where are start-ups most likely to penetrate next?
  • 14. SDI Has Marketing Impacts • Channel effectiveness will vary by disruption stage • Messaging modes will shift • Power of consumers will rise as disruption deepens • Radical shifts in tactics as disruption takes hold • A new normal emerges in post-disruption
  • 15. Netflix Social Data vs. Actual Revenue Data 15 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 8000000 9000000 10000000 Members vs. Predictive Variable All Mentions Total members at end of period
  • 16. Predicted vs. Actual Netflix Revenue Data 16 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 December 31, 2012 March 31, 2013 June 30, 2013 September 30, 2013 December 31, 2013 March 31, 2014 June 30, 2014 Revenue Actual Revenues Social Predicted Members Market Forecasts
  • 17. Next Steps • We want your help! • Join us as early partners and see SDI before anyone else • Initial release by June 2015 • Available to W2O clients & select investors • Summary data available to media • Post-release, 1 category deep dive each quarter • By end of 2015, release of broad quarterly cross-category disruption index

Editor's Notes

  1. The 1-9-90 Rule, which states 1% of people online create content, 9% share content, and 90% lurk and learn, is the foundation to the structure of our analysis. The 90% represents the content consuming audience whose expressions are covered in the listening segment of our analysis. We carried out this analysis for each of the three brands. The 9% and the 1% are investigated by the Influencer Meme and the Muse Analysis with emphasis on the concentric circles of influence surrounding topics related to the brands. We identify who creates and shares content.