Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Outlook June 2013

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http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

Strong domestic demand allowed Sub Saharan African economies to continue their robust growth trajectory in 2012, despite subdued global demand conditions. On aggregate the region grew at 4.4 per cent in 2012 (this includes South Sudan whose GDP recorded a double digit contraction).

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  • GEP 2010 Presentation
  • Despite a subdued recovery in the global economy, growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robust. Regional growth in 2012 is estimated at 4.4%, however, excluding the regions largest economy, South Africa growth came in at 5.4%;
  • Despite a subdued recovery in the global economy, growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robust. Regional growth in 2012 is estimated at 4.4%, however, excluding the regions largest economy, South Africa growth came in at 5.4%;
  • Despite a subdued recovery in the global economy, growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robust. Regional growth in 2012 is estimated at 4.4%, however, excluding the regions largest economy, South Africa growth came in at 5.4%;
  • With about a third of countries in the region growing at or above 6%.However, this robust growth performance was not shared by all countries in the region. Indeed, where political instability, severe labor unrests and exogeneos weather shocks disrupted economic activity economic growth was below par.
  • With about a third of countries in the region growing at or above 6%.However, this robust growth performance was not shared by all countries in the region. Indeed, where political instability, severe labor unrests and exogeneos weather shocks disrupted economic activity economic growth was below par.
  • Much of the robust growth came from robust domestic demand, including increased private and public investments and resilient consumer spending. For instance, foreign direct investment flows to the region in 2013 are expected to reach $40 billion, up from $32bn in 2012.These investments have supported an expansion in the productive capacity in the mining sector, thanks to high commodity prices.
  • Much of the robust growth came from robust domestic demand, including increased private and public investments and resilient consumer spending. For instance, foreign direct investment flows to the region in 2013 are expected to reach $40 billion, up from $32bn in 2012.These investments have supported an expansion in the productive capacity in the mining sector, thanks to high commodity prices.
  • Much of the robust growth came from robust domestic demand, including increased private and public investments and resilient consumer spending. For instance, foreign direct investment flows to the region in 2013 are expected to reach $40 billion, up from $32bn in 2012.These investments have supported an expansion in the productive capacity in the mining sector, thanks to high commodity prices.
  • However, not all the non-resource sector is also attracting investment flows, particularly the service sector. Indeed in recent years service sub sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, construction, finance and banking have been the fastest growing sectors in several economies in the region.
  • However, not all the non-resource sector is also attracting investment flows, particularly the service sector. Indeed in recent years service sub sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, construction, finance and banking have been the fastest growing sectors in several economies in the region.
  • However, not all the non-resource sector is also attracting investment flows, particularly the service sector. Indeed in recent years service sub sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, construction, finance and banking have been the fastest growing sectors in several economies in the region.
  • However, not all the non-resource sector is also attracting investment flows, particularly the service sector. Indeed in recent years service sub sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, construction, finance and banking have been the fastest growing sectors in several economies in the region.
  • However, not all the non-resource sector is also attracting investment flows, particularly the service sector. Indeed in recent years service sub sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, construction, finance and banking have been the fastest growing sectors in several economies in the region.
  • A deceleration in the pace of inflation supported by better weather conditions and earlier monetary tightening measures have supported household spending in the region. Household spending also benefitted from increased remittance flows. In 2013 remittances are expected to rise by an $1 billion.
  • Against the backdrop of robust domestic demand and a projected strengthening of global demand, real GDP growth in the region is expected to average about 5.2 percent over the 2013-2015 period. Excluding, South Africa, GDP growth will average about 6.2 percent.
  • Against the backdrop of robust domestic demand and a projected strengthening of global demand, real GDP growth in the region is expected to average about 5.2 percent over the 2013-2015 period. Excluding, South Africa, GDP growth will average about 6.2 percent.
  • Against the backdrop of robust domestic demand and a projected strengthening of global demand, real GDP growth in the region is expected to average about 5.2 percent over the 2013-2015 period. Excluding, South Africa, GDP growth will average about 6.2 percent.
  • Nonetheless, significant downside risks remain. These includeWeaker growth in the global economy. For instance if the projected recovery for high-income countries, embedded in our forecasts does not materialize this will reduce growth prospects in the region. Further if the recent decline in commodity prices intensifies then growth could be derailed, particulary among oil and metal exporters. However, other oil importers in the region will benefit.Increasingly domestic risks are important, these include over heating …….
  • Nonetheless, significant downside risks remain. These includeWeaker growth in the global economy. For instance if the projected recovery for high-income countries, embedded in our forecasts does not materialize this will reduce growth prospects in the region. Further if the recent decline in commodity prices intensifies then growth could be derailed, particulary among oil and metal exporters. However, other oil importers in the region will benefit.Increasingly domestic risks are important, these include over heating …….
  • GEP 2010 Presentation
  • Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Outlook June 2013

    1. 1. 1Allen DennisWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsSub-Saharan AfricaRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
    2. 2. Growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robustSource: World Bank-3.0-1.01.03.05.07.02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fDeveloping (ex. China)Sub Saharan AfricaSub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
    3. 3. Growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robustSource: World Bank-3.0-1.01.03.05.07.02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fDeveloping (ex. China)Sub Saharan AfricaSub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
    4. 4. Growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robustSource: World Bank-3.0-1.01.03.05.07.02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fDeveloping (ex. China)Sub Saharan AfricaSub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
    5. 5. 18.2%Fastest Growing economies in Sub Saharan Africa(Real GDP growth in 2012, %ch)Source: World Bank0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16BrazilRussiaIndiaNigeriaDem. Rep. of…ZambiaTanzaniaEritreaMozambiqueRwandaChinaBurkina FasoAngolaGhanaEthiopiaCote DIvoireNigerSierra Leone 18.2%
    6. 6. 18.2%Fastest Growing economies in Sub Saharan Africa(Real GDP growth in 2012, %ch)Source: World Bank0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16BrazilRussiaIndiaNigeriaDem. Rep. of…ZambiaTanzaniaEritreaMozambiqueRwandaChinaBurkina FasoAngolaGhanaEthiopiaCote DIvoireNigerSierra Leone 18.2%
    7. 7. Political instability, severe laborunrests and exogenous weathershocks disrupted economic activity.
    8. 8. Much of the robust growth came from robustdomestic demand, including increased privateand public investments and resilient consumerspending.
    9. 9. Foreign Direct Investment flows to the region remain strong01020304050607080902008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fOther Capital InflowsNet FDI inflowsNet capital flows to Sub Saharan Africa ($billions)Source: World Bank
    10. 10. Foreign Direct Investment flows to the region remain strong01020304050607080902008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fOther Capital InflowsNet FDI inflowsNet capital flows to Sub Saharan Africa ($billions)Source: World Bank$40 bn
    11. 11. Foreign Direct Investment flows to the region remain strong01020304050607080902008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fOther Capital InflowsNet FDI inflowsNet capital flows to Sub Saharan Africa ($billions)Source: World Bank$40 bn$32 bn
    12. 12. Growth in the non-resource sector has beenstrong, especially the services sectorFaster growing sectors Slower growing sectorsNigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &Restaurants, construction, realestate.Crude petroleum & natural gasTanzania Transport and communications,Real estate, whole sale and retailtradeMining and quarryingBotswanaConstruction, Financial and businessservices, Transport &communicationsMiningGhana Financial & Insurance, Information& Communication, Real estateMining and quarryingSouthAfricaFinance, real estate & businessservices, whole sale & retail tradeMining and quarryingRwanda Industrial, and services AgricultureSource: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
    13. 13. Growth in the non-resource sector has beenstrong, especially the services sectorFaster growing sectors Slower growing sectorsNigeriaTelecommunications,Hotel & Restaurants, construction,real estate.Crude petroleum & natural gasTanzania Transport and communications,Real estate, whole sale and retailtradeMining and quarryingBotswanaConstruction, Financial and businessservices, Transport &communicationsMiningGhana Financial & Insurance, Information& Communication, Real estateMining and quarryingSouthAfricaFinance, real estate & businessservices, whole sale & retail tradeMining and quarryingRwanda Industrial, and services AgricultureSource: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
    14. 14. Growth in the non-resource sector has beenstrong, especially the services sectorFaster growing sectors Slower growing sectorsNigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &Restaurants, construction, realestate.Crude petroleum & natural gasTanzania Transport and communications,Real estate, whole sale and retailtradeMining and quarryingBotswanaConstruction, Financial and businessservices, Transport &communicationsMiningGhana Financial & Insurance, Information& Communication, Real estateMining and quarryingSouthAfricaFinance, real estate & businessservices, whole sale & retail tradeMining and quarryingRwanda Industrial, and services AgricultureSource: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
    15. 15. Growth in the non-resource sector has beenstrong, especially the services sectorFaster growing sectors Slower growing sectorsNigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &Restaurants, construction, realestate.Crude petroleum & natural gasTanzania Transport and communications,Real estate, whole sale and retailtradeMining and quarryingBotswanaConstruction, Financial andbusiness services, Transport &communicationsMiningGhana Financial & Insurance, Information& Communication, Real estateMining and quarryingSouthAfricaFinance, real estate & businessservices, whole sale & retail tradeMining and quarryingRwanda Industrial, and services AgricultureSource: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
    16. 16. Growth in the non-resource sector has beenstrong, especially the services sectorFaster growing sectors Slower growing sectorsNigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &Restaurants, construction, realestate.Crude petroleum & natural gasTanzania Transport and communications,Real estate, whole sale and retailtradeMining and quarryingBotswanaConstruction, Financial and businessservices, Transport &communicationsMiningGhana Financial & Insurance, Information& Communication, Real estateMining and quarryingSouthAfricaFinance, real estate & businessservices, whole sale & retail tradeMining and quarryingRwanda Industrial, and services AgricultureSource: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
    17. 17. Inflation has decelerated in recent monthsSource: World Bank And International Financial Statistics4.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.0Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13Oil Importers Oil Exporters Sub Saharan Africa(inflation, y/y)
    18. 18. In 2013 remittances areexpected to rise by $1 billion.
    19. 19. In 2013 remittances areexpected to rise by $1 billion.
    20. 20. Medium-term growth outlook for Sub Saharan Africaremains strongSource: World Bank3.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.02008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fSub Saharan Africa Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
    21. 21. Medium-term growth outlook for Sub Saharan Africaremains strongSource: World Bank3.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.02008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fSub Saharan Africa Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
    22. 22. Medium-term growth outlook for Sub Saharan Africaremains strongSource: World Bank3.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.02008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fSub Saharan Africa Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
    23. 23. Risks• External Risks– Weaker growth in global economy– Decline in commodity prices
    24. 24. Risks• External Risks– Weaker growth in global economy– Decline in commodity prices• Domestic Risks– Overheating in economies operating close tocapacity– Adverse weather shocks– Political unrests
    25. 25. 25Allen DennisWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsSub-Saharan AfricaRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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