South Asia Outlook, Jan 2014
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Transcript

  • 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 South Asia Region Sanket Mohapatra World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook 1
  • 2. South Asia’s regional GDP growth was a relatively weak 4.6 percent in 2013. 2
  • 3. GDP growth in South Asia slowed to a decade low during 2012 and 2013 GDP growth (percent) Source: World Bank, national sources 3
  • 4. . Growth in India is estimated to have fallen below 5% in current fiscal year. 4
  • 5. . Pakistan’s growth has averaged 3.5% since 2010. 5
  • 6. A challenging external environment played a role. 6
  • 7. A challenging external environment played a role. But domestic imbalances and policy uncertainties were important contributors as well. 7
  • 8. A sharp adjustment in capital flows during mid-year on tapering apprehensions Gross capital flows to South Asia (millions of US$) Source: World Bank, Dealogic 8
  • 9. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
  • 10. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
  • 11. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
  • 12. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
  • 13. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
  • 14. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
  • 15. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
  • 16. A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand 16
  • 17. A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand 17
  • 18. A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand 18
  • 19. Risks to the outlook • Domestic risks dominant: – Ability to sustain fiscal and policy reforms – Reducing inflation expectations – Political uncertainties (national elections in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India in 2014) – Progress in alleviating supply-side constraints in energy, infrastructure, agriculture • Disorderly adjustment to financial tightening accompanying normalization of macro policy in high income countries • Fragile global growth – Euro Area not out of woods yet – Risks from US debt ceiling negotiations, geopolitical risks in Middle East • Doing better will depend on macro stability and productivity enhancing reforms to raise longer-term potential growth 19
  • 20. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 South Asia Region Sanket Mohapatra World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook 20