South Asia Outlook, Jan 2014

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  • Project path: r:\gmt\presentations\GlobalOutlook.cwpChartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013Chart name: PMIsChart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:\gmt\presentations\GlobalOutlook.cwpChartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013Chart name: PMIsChart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
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  • South Asia Outlook, Jan 2014

    1. 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 South Asia Region Sanket Mohapatra World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook 1
    2. 2. South Asia’s regional GDP growth was a relatively weak 4.6 percent in 2013. 2
    3. 3. GDP growth in South Asia slowed to a decade low during 2012 and 2013 GDP growth (percent) Source: World Bank, national sources 3
    4. 4. . Growth in India is estimated to have fallen below 5% in current fiscal year. 4
    5. 5. . Pakistan’s growth has averaged 3.5% since 2010. 5
    6. 6. A challenging external environment played a role. 6
    7. 7. A challenging external environment played a role. But domestic imbalances and policy uncertainties were important contributors as well. 7
    8. 8. A sharp adjustment in capital flows during mid-year on tapering apprehensions Gross capital flows to South Asia (millions of US$) Source: World Bank, Dealogic 8
    9. 9. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    10. 10. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    11. 11. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    12. 12. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    13. 13. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
    14. 14. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
    15. 15. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
    16. 16. A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand 16
    17. 17. A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand 17
    18. 18. A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand 18
    19. 19. Risks to the outlook • Domestic risks dominant: – Ability to sustain fiscal and policy reforms – Reducing inflation expectations – Political uncertainties (national elections in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India in 2014) – Progress in alleviating supply-side constraints in energy, infrastructure, agriculture • Disorderly adjustment to financial tightening accompanying normalization of macro policy in high income countries • Fragile global growth – Euro Area not out of woods yet – Risks from US debt ceiling negotiations, geopolitical risks in Middle East • Doing better will depend on macro stability and productivity enhancing reforms to raise longer-term potential growth 19
    20. 20. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 South Asia Region Sanket Mohapatra World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook 20

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