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Middle East & North Africa Regional Outlook June 2013

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http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook …

http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

More than two years after the Arab Spring began, economic activity remains weighed down by elevated political tensions and continued civil strife in the region. Regional growth accelerated to 3.5 percent in 2012 from minus 2.2 percent in 2011 reflecting mainly a rebound in Libya’s crude oil production to pre-war levels that doubled real GDP and a weak growth recovery in Egypt (to 2.2 percent in FY2012 from 1.8 percent in FY2011).

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    • 1. 1Tehmina S. KhanWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsMiddle East & NorthAfricaRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
    • 2. Regional growth remained weighed down by politicaltensions and conflicts during 2012
    • 3. -6-4-202468102009 2010 2011 2012eOther* Egypt SyriaLibya Iraq IranAlgeria MENA AggregatePercent contribution to developing MENA GDP growth* Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon and YemenSource: World BankRegional growth remained weighed down by politicaltensions and conflicts during 2012
    • 4. -6-4-202468102009 2010 2011 2012eOther* Egypt SyriaLibya Iraq IranAlgeria MENA AggregatePercent contribution to developing MENA GDP growth3.5%* Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon and YemenSource: World BankRegional growth remained weighed down by politicaltensions and conflicts during 2012
    • 5. Regional growth remained weighed down by politicaltensions and conflicts during 2012-6-4-202468102009 2010 2011 2012eOther* Egypt SyriaLibya Iraq IranAlgeria MENA AggregatePercent contribution to developing MENA GDP growth3.5%* Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon and YemenSource: World Bank-2.2%
    • 6. -6-4-202468102009 2010 2011 2012eOther* Egypt SyriaLibya Iraq IranAlgeria MENA AggregatePercent contribution to developing MENA GDP growth3.5%* Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon and YemenSource: World Bank-2.2%Regional growth remained weighed down by politicaltensions and conflicts during 2012
    • 7. Inflation remains persistently high in severaleconomies051015202530354045051015202530354045IRQ MAR ALG JOR TUN EGY LBN YEM IRNLatest Inflation Inflation Peak 2012% y/y % y/ySource: World Bank, National Statistical Offices
    • 8. Inflation remains persistently high in severaleconomies051015202530354045051015202530354045IRQ MAR ALG JOR TUN EGY LBN YEM IRNLatest Inflation Inflation Peak 2012% y/y % y/ySource: World Bank, National Statistical Offices
    • 9. Large fuel and food subsidies have added to fiscaland current account pressures in several economies
    • 10. 024681012140102030405060DJI MAR MRT TUN IRQ LBN JOR LBY YMN ALG EGY IRNNat ur al Gas (LHS)El ect r i ci t y ( LHS)Pet r ol eum(LHS)Tot al Fuel subsi des as % of GDP, RHS% of total revenues % of total GDPSource: IMF (2013)Fuel subsidies in MENA economiesLarge fuel and food subsidies have added to fiscaland current account pressures in several economies
    • 11. Growth prospects critically depend on the evolution ofdomestic and cross-border political tensions and conflicts
    • 12. -3-2-10123456700-09a 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Aggregate Regional GrowthGDP growth, %Source: World Bank. Estimates for 2012 and forecasts from 2013 onwardsGrowth prospects critically depend on the evolution ofdomestic and cross-border political tensions and conflicts
    • 13. -3-2-10123456700-09a 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Aggregate Regional GrowthAlgeriaEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.GDP growth, %Source: World Bank. Estimates for 2012 and forecasts from 2013 onwardsGrowth prospects critically depend on the evolution ofdomestic and cross-border political tensions and conflicts
    • 14. Heightened political tensions and simmeringsectarian conflicts pose risks to this outlook
    • 15. Weakening macroeconomic fundamentals and risingfiscal sustainability risks are a major cause of concern-20-15-10-50510152025020406080100120140160EgyptLebanonJordanMoroccoYemenTunisiaAlgeriaIranIraqLibyaFi scal Bal (% of GDP 2011, RHS)Fi scal Bal (% of GDP 2012, RHS)Publ i c Debt (% of GDP, 2012)Source: IMF, World Bank
    • 16. Risks and VulnerabilitiesSource: IMF, World Bank• Protracted weakness in the Eurozone
    • 17. Risks and VulnerabilitiesSource: IMF, World Bank• Protracted weakness in the Eurozone• Projected gradual decline incommodity
    • 18. 18Tehmina S. KhanWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsMiddle East & NorthAfricaRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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