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Global Economic Prospects - June 2013
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  • 1. 1Andrew BurnsWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectshttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  • 2. 2Andrew BurnsWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsLess volatile,http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  • 3. 3Andrew BurnsWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsLess volatile,but slower growthhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  • 4. -10-50510152009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1World2013:Q1 Global GDPgrowing at a 2.0%annualized pace2012:Q4 Developingcountry GDP growing at a5.7% annualized paceQuarterly GDP growth, annualizedSource: World Bank.Global growth is picking up
  • 5. -10-50510152009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1World2013:Q1 Global GDPgrowing at a 2.0%annualized pace2012:Q4 Developingcountry GDP growing at a5.7% annualized paceQuarterly GDP growth, annualizedSource: World Bank.Global growth is picking up
  • 6. -10-50510152009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1Developing countriesWorld2013:Q1 Global GDPgrowing at a 2.0%annualized pace2012:Q4 Developingcountry GDP growing at a5.7% annualized paceQuarterly GDP growth, annualizedSource: World Bank.Global growth is picking up
  • 7. -10-50510152009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1Developing countriesWorldHigh-income countries2013:Q1 Global GDPgrowing at a 2.0%annualized pace2012:Q4 Developingcountry GDP growing at a5.7% annualized paceQuarterly GDP growth, annualizedSource: World Bank.Global growth is picking up
  • 8. 444750535659Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13Confidence indicators continueto send mixed signalsPurchasing Manager Indexes, balance of respondents ( > 50 implies expansion)Euro Area8Source: World Bank, Markit, National Sources.
  • 9. 444750535659Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13Confidence indicators continueto send mixed signalsPurchasing Manager Indexes, balance of respondents ( > 50 implies expansion)Euro AreaOther high-income9Source: World Bank, Markit, National Sources.
  • 10. 444750535659Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13Confidence indicators continueto send mixed signalsPurchasing Manager Indexes, balance of respondents ( > 50 implies expansion)ChinaEuro AreaOther high-income10Source: World Bank, Markit, National Sources.
  • 11. 444750535659Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13Confidence indicators continueto send mixed signalsPurchasing Manager Indexes, balance of respondents ( > 50 implies expansion)ChinaOther developingEuro AreaOther high-income11Source: World Bank, Markit, National Sources.
  • 12. 0123456782010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentagepoints slower than pre-crisis ratesAnnual GDP growth, %Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.World12
  • 13. 0123456782010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentagepoints slower than pre-crisis ratesAnnual GDP growth, %Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.World13High-income
  • 14. 0123456782010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentagepoints slower than pre-crisis ratesAnnual GDP growth, %Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.World14High-income
  • 15. 0123456782010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentagepoints slower than pre-crisis ratesAnnual GDP growth, %Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.World15High-income
  • 16. 0123456782010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentagepoints slower than pre-crisis ratesAnnual GDP growth, %Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.World16High-income
  • 17. 0123456782010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentagepoints slower than pre-crisis ratesAnnual GDP growth, %Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.World17Developing countriesHigh-income
  • 18. 0123456782010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentagepoints slower than pre-crisis ratesAnnual GDP growth, %Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.World18Developing countriesHigh-income
  • 19. 0123456782010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentagepoints slower than pre-crisis ratesAnnual GDP growth, %Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.World19Developing countriesHigh-income
  • 20. 0123456782010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentagepoints slower than pre-crisis ratesAnnual GDP growth, %Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.World20Developing countriesHigh-income
  • 21. -4-202468102000 2005 2010 2015Slower post-crisis growth reflects broadlyunchanged potential growth21Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA)Output GapGDP growthPotential Output growthSource: World Bank.
  • 22. -4-202468102000 2005 2010 2015Slower post-crisis growth reflects broadlyunchanged potential growth22Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA)Output GapGDP growthPotential Output growthSource: World Bank.
  • 23. Industrial commodity prices areeasing due to new supply23150160170180190200210220230240Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13USD price indexes, January 1005=100Source: World Bank.
  • 24. Industrial commodity prices areeasing due to new supply24150160170180190200210220230240Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13Metals &MineralsUSD price indexes, January 1005=100Source: World Bank.
  • 25. Industrial commodity prices areeasing due to new supply25150160170180190200210220230240Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13EnergyMetals &MineralsUSD price indexes, January 1005=100Source: World Bank.
  • 26. Industrial commodity prices areeasing due to new supply26150160170180190200210220230240Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13AgriculturalgoodsEnergyMetals &MineralsUSD price indexes, January 1005=100Source: World Bank.
  • 27. Industrial commodity prices areeasing due to new supply27150160170180190200210220230240Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13FoodAgriculturalgoodsEnergyMetals &MineralsUSD price indexes, January 1005=100Source: World Bank.
  • 28. 0100200300400500600700800900Dec 10 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13Yields are rising and could go up even moreas QE is withdrawnSpreadUS 10 year treasury yieldImplied developing country yieldSovereign 10 year bond yields, and spreads, basis pointsSource: World Bank, Datastream, JP Morgan.
  • 29. 0100200300400500600700800900Dec 10 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13Yields are rising and could go up even moreas QE is withdrawnSpreadUS 10 year treasury yieldImplied developing country yieldSovereign 10 year bond yields, and spreads, basis pointsSource: World Bank, Datastream, JP Morgan.
  • 30. 0100200300400500600700800900Dec 10 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13Yields are rising and could go up even moreas QE is withdrawnSpreadUS 10 year treasury yieldImplied developing country yieldSovereign 10 year bond yields, and spreads, basis pointsSource: World Bank, Datastream, JP Morgan.
  • 31. Private-sector debt may prove destabilizing ifinterest rates rise or risk appetites changeSource: World Bank, International Debt Statistics.0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160Chi naSout h Af r i caMal aysi aVi et namSt . Luci aPanamaThai l andMaur i t i usLebanonLat vi aGr enadaTuni si aFi j iJor danBul gar i aMor occoChi l eVanuat uCape Ver deBr azi lBel i zeDomi ni caUkr ai neMont enegr oBosni a and Her zegovi naMal di vesLi t huani aNepalSt . Vi ncent and t he Gr enadi nesMongol i aBhut anTur keyI ndi aHondur asBangl adeshSer bi aCost a Ri caSamoaRussi an Feder at i onMacedoni a, FYRCol ombi aPrivate Domestic banking claims (% GDP)Middle-income countriesLow-income countries
  • 32. Outlook• Muted but solid growth for developingcountries• Most developing countries have recoveredfrom the crisis• Strengthen the supply potential32
  • 33. 33Andrew BurnsWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsLess volatile,but slower growthhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook