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Lessons from Iran Mukhtar Hashemi

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  • 1. Lessons Learned from National Experiences: Allocating Environmental Water requirements of Lake Urmia, Iran: an Ecohydrological Approach Mukhtar Hashemi ❶ Associate Researcher, The Centre for Land Use and Water Resources Research (CLUWRR), Newcastle University, UK; ❷ Scientific Advisor, The Office of Applied Researches, IWRMC, Ministry of Energy, Iran ❸ National IWRM Consultant, UNDP/GEF Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project, Department of Environment, Iran 22-24 Feb 2011 Amman- Jordan Kempinski Hotel WANA Forum Consultation Workshop
  • 2.  
  • 3. The setting Lake Urmai Basin Iran
  • 4. The setting: Lake Urmia Basin, Iran Lake area ~5000 km sq. Basin area ~52,000 Population (2006): 5.9 M
  • 5. Includes some 13 major urban cities: 2 mega cities 7 % total Iran water resources and 3% of total area Major agro economy Lake Urmia Salt lake Irrigated area 590,000 ha Further planned 600,000
  • 6. Water resources Development 63 dams
  • 7. Dams: 1. Feasibility study stage 2. Under constructions 3. Existing EA: 36 dams 760 MCM WA: 22 dams 2960 MCM Kurdistan 5 dams 148 MCM 17 permanent rivers 14 seasonal rivers 39 flood routes
  • 8. Lake Urmia: a view from inside
  • 9. Simply : not enough water to the Lake: up to 7 km retreat
  • 10. Lake Urmia: Costal retreat
  • 11. A hydrodynamic scar: Highway bisecting the lake
  • 12. Inflow decreased by 60% from average mean inflow (Long term)
  • 13. Climatic variations and Drought: P downward trend 76 mm less than average
  • 14. Impact on the Lake: Climatic Source: Williams, 2002) Salt lakes: Temp, P, net evaporation
  • 15. 5 Human induced factors (Williams, 2002)
    •  1) Surface inflow diversions which will affect both the physical (volume, water level) and chemical (salinity) characteristics of the salt lakes - permanent salt lakes are more inclined to be affected by surface inflow diversions as well as catchment activities;
  • 16.  (2) Catchment activities
    • (a) secondary (or anthropogenic) salinisation caused by leaching of salt deposits in the catchment of the salt lakes; (sedimentation)
    • (b) soil erosion,
    • (c) groundwater pumping and (wells -salt intrusion)
    • (d) urban development; (500% up)
  • 17. Impact: Human factors
    •  (3) Mining
      • mostly affects dry lakes;
    •  (4) Pollution especially from wastewater and agriculture and (
    • ? 5) Anthropogenically-induced climatic and atmospheric changes as climate models predict that the aridity of arid regions will increase.
  • 18. National Outcry: The fear: another Aral
  • 19. April 2010 1271.61 1277.69 Min ecological 1274.1 Mean 1275.37
  • 20. Lake Level changes: sea of salt 1995 2001 2009
  • 21. New ecohydrology policy
    • Lake – water to lake should maintain the biodiversity
    • In this case artima (salt shrimps)
    • Water quantity- lake level
    • Water quality – salt concentration
    • Biodiversity- Artimia
  • 22. September 2008: breakthrough
    • Multidisciplinary research
    • UNDP/GEF/DoE Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project (CIWP)
    • MOU signed by all stakeholders in 3 provinces
    • EMP was agreed
    • HOW TO Be Implemented?
  • 23. Institutional Design
  • 24. Water and Agriculture Working Group (WAWG): Sept 08-July 10
    • Water allocation strategy
    • Drought Risk Management Plan management
    • Demand management
    • Inter-basin transfer
  • 25.  
  • 26. Objective
      • facilitating a stakeholder participation to reach a decision on water allocation among three provinces sharing the LU basin and
      • allocating the minimum ecological water requirement of the Lake.
      • Approach an integrated methodological framework to implement Lake Urmia’s IWRM Plan
  • 27. The Approach: Socio-technical & Institutional Framework
    • Linking technical and socio-political (institutional ) frameworks together. Based on:
    • IWRM Conceptual framework (GWP, 2000) and
    • Analytical Frameworks:
      • DPSIR sustainability (EEA, 1999; IMPRESS 2002; Common Implementation Strategy WFD; OECD, 2002; EU, 2002) and
      • Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework (Ostrom, 1999, 2005)
  • 28. socio-economic system Water Resources System natural system Institutional system infrastructure laws, regulations, management impacts demands Integrated water resources management, IWRM
  • 29. Integrated Socio-technical and Institutional, ISTI Framework ,
  • 30. Analytical Frameworks:
    • required to
    • study change,
    • predict future trends,
    • assess impacts of policies on the water resources systems and
    • provide alternative options.
  • 31. DPSIR has four characteristics
  • 32. Variables Examples D, the Drivers: root causes on a macro level described through scenarios representing alternative futures - Climate change: Climatic driver controls availability of water resources in time and space - Socio-economic drivers include local and global economic development, lifestyles etc - Social: Population growth - Economic: affordability and incentive measures - Institutional: compliance, privatization, legislations/regulation and administrative issues P, The Pressures (threats) variables: immediate causes - Demand for water from various sectors - Pollution which impacts on water quality and constrains resource availability e.g. the amount of pollution by wastewater S, The States: describing physical and measurable characteristics and social livelihood systems -Income levels, poverty levels - Natural resources/environmental: availability of water/energy/land, water consumption indices, Chemical composition of water, ecosystem state/biodiversity -Economic: level and security of investments, Condition of assets/infrastructure - Social: access to water/link with poverty, ability to pay, social capacity, employment in the water industry - Institutional: institutional arrangements, governance frameworks, capacity and functioning I, The Impacts: monitor the long term impacts of change defined as changes in states resulting from pressures - urbanisation -diseases caused by polluted water -changes in consumption behaviour, -environmental degradation R, The Responses: are problem-solving policies, actions or investments; an appropriate mix of Structural Options e.g. new reservoirs/pipelines etc and Non-Structural Options e.g. legislation, institutional reform, demand management etc. assemble portfolio of Options into robust Management Strategy -Social: capacity building and awareness raising campaigns. - Environmental: source protection, -Economic: the use of water saving infrastructure, incentives. - Institutional: efficiency measures, accountability, transparency, integration approach
  • 33.
    • Water allocation: VENSIM system Dynamics Modeling is required by Law in Iran
  • 34.  
  • 35. Vensim System Dynamic Simulation water balance & Water Allocation
  • 36. Comparison of Lake level under different conditions/simulations
  • 37. IAD: Multi-level institutional framework
  • 38. Rules outcome: Sectoral provincial water allocation and consupmtion ACTION ARENA Actors and Action situation Individuals’ actions that directly affect state variables in the world OPERATIONAL LEVEL COLLECTIVE-CHOICE LEVEL Government policies External factors decison making prespective: Ethical/ cultural: Actors’ Perception of water rights/ ethics in rules Figure 2: Analysis approach: (Ostrom, 1999, 2005) Attributes of the community Biophysical conditions Bulk provincial Water Allocation CONSTITUTIONAL LEVEL council of Ministers / National Commitee/ Supreme Water Council /Parliament /Council of Expediency
  • 39. Multilevel analytical framework:
  • 40. Action situation: water allocation decisions
  • 41. Outcome: provincial/sectoral water allocation Provincial Water Companies PROVENCIAL LEVEL (Constitutional, collective choice and operational) NATIONAL LEVEL (constitutional, collective choice and operational) Parliament Supreme Water Council Council of Ministers MoE: Water Allocation Commission IWRMC: WR Planning Directorate Figure 3 Actors Water , Agriculture & Natural Resources Commission MoE: Parliamentarian Undersecretary Governors office: Water and Agriculture Commision
  • 42. water resources development policies /water pricing. Bulk water allocation, 1982 Fair water Distribution Act Water Pricing Bill/ water prices Development Bill/ statuary allocation priorities 2003 Water Allocation By-Law PROVENCIAL LEVEL (Constitutional, collective choice and operational) NATIONAL LEVEL (constitutional, collective choice and operational) Constitution, Water Vision, Council of Expediency and Supreme Leader’s Water Directive , other relevant Acts e.g. 1905 Civil Code revised 1989; 1974 Environmental Act Provincial water allocation priorities outcome: Provincial sectoral water allocations Figure 4 Rules
  • 43. Attributes of the community
    • The size and composition of the community
      • size: 3 provinces over 5 million people
      • ethnic (Kurdsih, Turkish-Azari)
      • ethics/religion: Sunni and Shiite Muslim; as well as a small community of Assyrian and Armenian Christians
    • low level of common understanding about the action situation; lack of trust between different provinces
    • low level of homogeneity in the preferences and priorities of the provinces
    • there are disparity or inequality of basic assets among the provinces ????
  • 44. Decision-making perspectives
    • decision-making perspective framework acts as a conceptual model filtering human perspectives and measuring cultural and ethical influences on the policy- making decisions.
    • 3 components:
      • the human elements of ethics or human perspectives (Spranger, 1928)
      • cultural context of ethics which relates to the environment in which decision making takes place.
      • legal context of belief (religion) (This is optional)
  • 45. Example: to assess the extent of central government’s recognition of local level basin governance
    • IAD framework is used, i.e. the extent of bottom up and decentralization processes, which is the cornerstone of IWRM. One would start with some policy options from the IAD analysis, then feed these through to DPSIR to provide some of the Drivers, and then iterate back to the IAD so that the various management options/strategies/plans can be fed into the policy making framework to reshape policy etc
  • 46.  
  • 47. Outcome: At national level/collective choice: New Law:
    • Total water in basin 6.9 BCM
    • LU water rights approved by Council of Ministers – legal statuary – min ecological 3.1 BCM
    • 3.7 BCM allocated among 3 provincdes
  • 48. OUTCOME: action arena/WAWG and NC: 3 rd of July 2010
    • Provincial allocations were made
    • First time ever in Iran to make a decision based on stakeholder involvement and in a transparent way
    • A major achievement in the environmental history of modern Iran
  • 49.  
  • 50. Conclusions: Water Allocation decision situation
    • Multi-stakeholder platform
    • Good governance: Political support and will; transparency
    • LU water rights
  • 51. MSP speed is…………slow 21 months to make a decision
  • 52. Final remark: technical uncertainty polarized opinions
    • Technical narratives regarding data, scientific methodological approaches have dominated policy/decision making during WAWG
    • e.g. the question of droughts, climate change, reasons for LU's water level drop etc have been a source of debate and disagreement.
    • There are disagreements about 'facts', data, and evidence etc but the most evident indicator has been overseen: the lake level is falling and no one doubts this fact
  • 53. Further work: Ethical and cultural
    • Water allocation decisions are influenced by cultural and ethical aspects which represent a dimension of the community attributes; and should not be ignored in the institutional analysis.
    • Human (capacity) development-maqaadid Model
    • Islamic Legal theory
  • 54. IDA Framework Rules in Use Community Attributes Biophysical Conditions Ethical and Cultural Perspective enrichment of faith enrichment of intellect/ reason safeguarding posterity enrichment of wealth invigorating the Human self human development Maqasid Model Revelation/ religion Experiences culture Intellect /reason Islamic Legal Theory sustainability science IWRM Framework environmental sustainability equity/ justice economic efficiency IWRM plan good governance DPSIR Analytical Framework Pressures Drivers State/impact Responses
  • 55. Thanks for your attention School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences