26/11/2012Co-creating the FutureCo-Towards new leadership and coalitions in businessLeen GorissenPresentation for the Vler...
The future will not be without challenges…                     26/11/2012              2                     © 2012, VITO NV
The 4° scenarios are devastating:         C                                                                      World Ban...
The 4° scenarios are devastating:         C                                                                      World Ban...
A transition will happen no matter what.The question is: will it be a positive or negative transition?                    ...
Can we navigate towards a positive transition?     ‘The world will not evolve past its current state of crisis by using th...
What is appropriate?» Our structures, routines, rules… have been designed to work in times of  stability and abundance» Th...
How to make the transition?» Innovate INNOVATION      » Identify frontrunners, pioniers, visionary people brooding on devi...
Transition Research» …aims to understand and (if possible) influence the drastic long-term changes in  culture, structure ...
Is transition research relevant for business?Business As Usual is no longer an option» Increasing uncertainty» Failing bus...
Transition Research in practice: KLC Limburg» Transition approach to explore the KLC’s new role in a climate neutral Limbu...
Transition Research in practice: Ghent» Transition approach for a Carbon Neutral City of Ghent       » T arena’s with fron...
Transition Research in practice: Ghent» Transition approach for a carbon Neutral City of Ghent    » Visionary scenario inc...
Transition success story: Interface’s Mission ZERO                     26/11/2012              14                     © 20...
Interface: learning from forests to reduce waste                                       » Interface recycled 80 milion     ...
New business model inspired by biomimicry» bios, meaning life, and mimesis, meaning to imitate» emerging discipline in sus...
What to do now to be successfull in 2022?        It is not the strongest of the species, nor the most intelligent that    ...
What to do now to be successfull in 2022?» Create a shift in business mindset             From competition to cooperation ...
Thank you for your interest. Questions?                  More info                 www.vito.be            Leen.gorissen@vi...
Chaos and dynamic: Transitions, the real thing» In real life, transition processes are complex and cannot simply andunambi...
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Leen Gorissen - Experience The Future 28/11/2012

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Leen Gorissen - Experience The Future 28/11/2012

  1. 1. 26/11/2012Co-creating the FutureCo-Towards new leadership and coalitions in businessLeen GorissenPresentation for the Vlerick Alumni Event ‘Experience the Future’28 november 2012
  2. 2. The future will not be without challenges… 26/11/2012 2 © 2012, VITO NV
  3. 3. The 4° scenarios are devastating: C World Bank report 2012 -the inundation of coastal cities; -increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates; -many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter; -unprecedented heat waves in many regions; -substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; -increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones; -and irreversible loss of biodiversity,And most importantly, a 4°C world is so different from the current one that it comeswith high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and planfor future adaptation needs. 26/11/2012 3 © 2012, VITO NV
  4. 4. The 4° scenarios are devastating: C World Bank report 2012 -the inundation of coastal cities; -increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates; -many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter; -unprecedented heat waves in many regions; CAN BUSINESSES SUCCEED IN -substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; -increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones; A FAILING WORLD? -and irreversible loss of biodiversity,And most importantly, a 4°C world is so different from the current one that it comeswith high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and planfor future adaptation needs. 26/11/2012 4 © 2012, VITO NV
  5. 5. A transition will happen no matter what.The question is: will it be a positive or negative transition? 26/11/2012 5 © 2012, VITO NV
  6. 6. Can we navigate towards a positive transition? ‘The world will not evolve past its current state of crisis by using the same thinking that created the situation’ Albert Einstein ‘The future is not some place we are going to but one we are creating.The paths are not to be found but made and the activity of making them changes both the maker and the destination’ John Schaar - Futurist 26/11/2012 6 © 2012, VITO NV
  7. 7. What is appropriate?» Our structures, routines, rules… have been designed to work in times of stability and abundance» They are no longer appropriate for our new reality. A reality of turbulence, chaos, complexity, uncertainty and depleting resources. A reality of failing systems: economic crisis, climate crisis, failing ecosystems, inequality….» When a sense of direction is lacking and new pathways are needed, a new perspective and vision needs to be developed.» New questions need to be asked and answered: » What is needed to develop sustainably*? » How to make the transition? * Sustainable = volhoudbaar 26/11/2012 7 © 2012, VITO NV
  8. 8. How to make the transition?» Innovate INNOVATION » Identify frontrunners, pioniers, visionary people brooding on deviating ideas » Protect, support and guide new ideas. Connect frontrunners and build innovation networks that will develop new pathways. » Co-create an inspiring long term vision that gives a sense of direction for the short and medium term.» Transition Research: science-based & action oriented » Understand system dynamics: hardware and software of society » Empower pioneers through co-production and co-creation » Experiment with new ideas and learn what works and what not » Build reflective and pioneering capacity » Evolve ‘From doing things better’ to ‘doing better things’ 26/11/2012 8 © 2012, VITO NV
  9. 9. Transition Research» …aims to understand and (if possible) influence the drastic long-term changes in culture, structure and practice that are required for genuine sustainable development (Rotmans 2003, Loorbach 2007, Grin et al. 2010)» …uses appropriate guiding frameworks to improve understanding of the ongoing processes, barriers, success factors, key players ... of effective change processes towards sustainable systems which can help to learn, recognise and use the possibilities to interfere, guide and facilitate the processes. 26/11/2012 9 © 2012, VITO NV
  10. 10. Is transition research relevant for business?Business As Usual is no longer an option» Increasing uncertainty» Failing business models» Increasing environmental standards» Volatility in energy prices» Resource scarcity» Ageing population» Growing pressure from ‘connected’ society» Changing attitudes of consumers» … 26/11/2012 10 © 2012, VITO NV
  11. 11. Transition Research in practice: KLC Limburg» Transition approach to explore the KLC’s new role in a climate neutral Limburg: » ARENA 1: Het systeem beter begrijpen ‘Over actoren, factoren en motieven’ » ARENA 2: Toekomstverkenning ‘Nadenken over het wensbeeld’ » ARENA 3: Transitiepaden ‘Van toekomstvisie naar toekomstgericht plannen’ 26/11/2012 11 © 2012, VITO NV
  12. 12. Transition Research in practice: Ghent» Transition approach for a Carbon Neutral City of Ghent » T arena’s with frontrunners » Spin-off T arena’s, e.g. mobility » T pathways & Long-term vision » Icoonprojecten» EUROCITIES AWARD 2012 26/11/2012 12 © 2012, VITO NV
  13. 13. Transition Research in practice: Ghent» Transition approach for a carbon Neutral City of Ghent » Visionary scenario includes » Make money work, but differently E.g. towards new work regimes, new business models » From globalisation to localisation E.g. re-localisation, optimizing resilience and self-support » Consumption & production 2.0: A circular economy E.g. sustainable design and new forms of ownership, urban mining » Economic development: measuring what matters E.g. gross national hapiness » Production and storage of energy, but different E.g. towards an energy internet » … 26/11/2012 13 © 2012, VITO NV
  14. 14. Transition success story: Interface’s Mission ZERO 26/11/2012 14 © 2012, VITO NV
  15. 15. Interface: learning from forests to reduce waste » Interface recycled 80 milion kg of old carpet , reduced emissions with 71%, water use with 74% and energy use with 44%. » By redesigning its business model, interface saved 405 miljoen USD and created significant added value in brand and reputation (Anderson et al., 2010). »This biomimetic design reduces installation waste to less than 1% compared to conventional tiles and it reached the top of the best- seller list faster than any other product in the company’s 26/11/2012 © 2012, VITO NV history (Lovins, 2008). 15
  16. 16. New business model inspired by biomimicry» bios, meaning life, and mimesis, meaning to imitate» emerging discipline in sustainability science» studies nature’s models and then emulates these natural forms, processes, systems, and strategies to solve human problems – sustainably 26/11/2012 16 © 2012, VITO NV
  17. 17. What to do now to be successfull in 2022? It is not the strongest of the species, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change. Charles DarwinKnowledge for transformation: e.g. 26/11/2012 17 © 2012, VITO NV
  18. 18. What to do now to be successfull in 2022?» Create a shift in business mindset From competition to cooperation From seperateness to interconnection From ST benefit to LT value From ‘control and command’ to ‘transition’ management» Transform business mentality, business models and organisational culture» Develop a strategy to guide the transition – build reflective & pioneering capacity – collaborate, experiment and build new coalitions – develop a new role for business leadership 4SD, like interface – create shared value for society and environment» Learn, unlearn and relearn In short, Be the change you want to see in the world Mahatma Ghandi 26/11/2012 18 © 2012, VITO NV
  19. 19. Thank you for your interest. Questions? More info www.vito.be Leen.gorissen@vito.beLets build the future we want 26/11/2012 19 © 2012, VITO NV A vision by Luc Schuiten
  20. 20. Chaos and dynamic: Transitions, the real thing» In real life, transition processes are complex and cannot simply andunambiguously be fitted into available theoretic moulds. In fact,transitions are more about (creative) chaos than structure and order.» This dynamic is also referred to as the Transition ManagementCycle. In other words, transition is about cyclic (and reflexive)continuation of thinking - acting - assessing - (re) thinking- acting-assessing ... Every end- or mid-point in the process can become anew starting point of another transition process at any given time.»This cyclic character of transition processes is an important reasonwhy managing these processes is so complex. 26/11/2012 20 © 2012, VITO NV
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