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The Long and Winding Road: U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook (Dr. Suzanne Cook at 2011 Indiana Tourism Summit)
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The Long and Winding Road: U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook (Dr. Suzanne Cook at 2011 Indiana Tourism Summit)

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Dr. Suzanne Cook presented the U.S. Travel Trends Outlook for 2011/2012 at the Indiana Tourism Summit on September 15, 2011 at the Indianapolis Museum of Art

Dr. Suzanne Cook presented the U.S. Travel Trends Outlook for 2011/2012 at the Indiana Tourism Summit on September 15, 2011 at the Indianapolis Museum of Art

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  • Thank you for the opportunity to share our findings about The Cultural & Heritage Traveler. We commissioned Mandala Research to conduct this study on behalf of USCHT because although there has been a great deal of confirmation that the cultural and heritage traveler is a very productive market,More affluent, travels more frequently and stays longer, we wanted to better understand who the Cultural & Heritage traveler is,Including His or her travel preferences, decision making process.We found that many others wanted this type of information including the Department of Commerce and our Lead Sponsor, Heritage Travel, Inc. which has just launched their new website Gozaic.

Transcript

  • 1. The Long and Winding Road…
    U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook
  • 2. Warning!
    This presentation may cause drowsiness.
    Presentation may even cause sudden loss of consciousness.
    Do not operate heavy equipment immediately following the presentation.
    If any of these conditions persist for more than four hours, seek help immediately.
    Rare but serious side effects may occur.
  • 3. 2001 – 2011: A Decade of Disasters and Distress
  • 4.
  • 5. But also a Decade of Rs…….……
    Resilience
    Renewal
    Re-birth
    Recovery
    Resourcefulness
    (Self)-reliance
  • 6. Today’s Agenda
    How far we have come – industry’s current performance
    Where we are going in 2011 and beyond
    Traveler trends and opportunities
    Digital media trends
    Staying ahead
  • 7. On to the Outlook!
  • 8. Why “uncertainty” for 2011 and 2012…Because this is still what we’re facing
  • 9. You call this a recovery?
  • 10. Turning the corner…What corner?
    Another “soft patch” – weaker than
    expected economic performance
    Housing market remains very weak
    Americans’ spending plans still on hold –
    stuck in 2009/2010 “new normal” range
    Labor market has weakened again – unemployment rate up to 9.1%
    Inflationary pressures easing but still high in travel
    Ongoing debt crisis
    Threat of higher taxes
  • 11. It’s the Consumer, Stupid!
  • 12. Consumer Confidence Plummets…Just can’t sustain consumer confidence
    Lowest since April 2009
    44.5 as of August
    90.0 is considered healthy
    1985 = 100
    Source: The Conference Board, August 30, 2011
  • 13. Consumer Confidence…Heading in the wrong direction
    90 considered “healthy”
    44.5
    25.3
    1985 = 100
    Source: The Conference Board
  • 14. August Consumer Confidence Index for Past Five Years…
    1985 = 100
    Source: The Conference Board
  • 15. Even upper-income Americans are concerned
  • 16. Overall Traveler Sentiment IndexTMHas picked up modestly…
    Interest in travel
    Time for travel
    Money available for travel
    Affordability of travel
    Quality of service
    Safety of travel in U.S.
    March 2007 = 100
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011
  • 17. Younger Americans the Most Positive about Travel
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnershiptravelhorizons™
  • 18. And their Positiveness is Gaining
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™
  • 19. Affordability of Travel Index… Regains some ground
    March 2007 = 100
    Gas price rise
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011
  • 20. But travel prices still outpacing inflation
    Percentage change through July 2011
    YTD TPI = +6.7%
    YTD CPI = +2.9%
    Does not include
    various fees
    Source: U.S. Travel Association Travel Price Index
  • 21. The cost of flying…Higher prices, fees, fees and more fees
    $9.2 billion in fees to U.S. airlines in 2010 for checked baggage/other services.
    TSA estimates there were 59 million more carry-ons in 2010 than in 2009.
  • 30. Gas prices up $0.93 from last year…Looking good for next few months
    Indiana = $3.72
    Source: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report as of September 13, 2011
    www.aaa.org
  • 31. Gas prices and travel…Right up there with other necessities
    After pumping $60 of gas into his Chevy pickup, Chuck says he’s giving up
    cigarettes, beer and a vacation.
    “I’ll sit at home and cook out and won’t go anywhere.”
    Source: USA Today, Friday, March 11, 2001
  • 32. Interest in Travel Remains Strong
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™
  • 33. Travel PerformanceDigging out of the hole…..
  • 34. Total Domestic Visitors… Up 3.5% in 2010
    Millions of Person-Trips
    Ugh!
    Source: U.S. Travel Association
  • 35. 2010 Travel Performance
    Domestic
    Business
    Volume
    Domestic
    Leisure
    Volume
    Domestic
    Volume
    Domestic
    Spending
    3.5%
    3.5%
    3.7%
    (-3.4%)
    (-2.5%)
    (-6.3%)
    7.7%
    Note: Numbers in parentheses are 2009 data
    Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
    (-8.8)
  • 36. First Half 2011 Travel Performance
    Domestic
    Business
    Volume
    Domestic
    Leisure
    Volume
    Domestic
    Volume
    Domestic
    Spending
    1.9%
    2.6%
    2.8%
    7.8%
    Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
  • 37. Leisure Travel Trends
  • 38. Domestic Leisure Visitors…Exceeded the 2007 high last year
    Millions of Person-Trips
    Bah!
    Source: U.S. Travel Association
  • 39. 56% of U.S. adults planning at
    least one leisure trip between August and January
    7 million more travelers
  • 40. Leisure Travel Intentions Highest in The West
    Plan to take a leisure trip between August 2011 and January 2012
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnershiptravelhorizons™
  • 41. And among Gen Xers and Matures
    Plan to take a leisure trip between August 2011 and January 2012
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnershiptravelhorizons™
  • 42. Financial factors influencing leisure travel…Most not really travel related
    Q: To what degree is each of the following financial issues currently affecting your leisure vacation plans over the next 12 months? (Somewhat to much less likely to travel)
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011
  • 43. Reasons for taking more leisure trips…3 Rs -- Rest, Relax, Reconnect
    • Reconnect with family/fiends (43%)
    • 44. Relieve stress/need to relax (34%)
    • 45. Break from home/work routine (26%)
    • 46. Have put off traveling due to economy – feeling housebound (25%)
    Q: Why are you planning on taking more leisure trips during the next 6 months?
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011
  • 47. Opportunities exist to entice over 42 million “not sures” to take a leisure trip
    Not Sure
    18%
    42 Million
    No Plans to Travel
    26%
    60 Million
    Q: Over the next 6 months, do you plan to take any leisure trips of at least 50 miles one way from home or that will include an overnight stay?
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011
  • 48. Outlook through January 2012
    Still willing to travel, but making adjustments in spending
    Still traveling close to home
    Overnight leisure trips shorter in duration
    More day trips
    More long weekend getaways
    Plans can change, but…..
  • 49. Vacations Are Needed Now More than Ever!
  • 50. Business travelers – on the road and in the air again…..
  • 51. Incidence of Business Travel Down 14 Points Over Past 5 Years, but Stabilizing
    Percent taking business trip in past year
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM
  • 52. Millions of Person-Trips
    Source: U.S. Travel Association
    Domestic business travel improves…But still well below 1998 record high
    Ouch!
  • 53. Business travel intentions – soft but steady
    Percent planning to take a business trip during next six months
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM
  • 54. Business travel – the province of the young
    Plan to take a business trip between August 2011 and January 2012
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnershiptravelhorizons™
  • 55. Lodging Trends
  • 56. Hotel demand… Stronger than expected
    Percent change in room-nights sold over prior year
    2010
    2011
    Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2011
  • 57. Revenue Per Available Room positive…Driven primarily by rising demand
    2011
    Percent change over prior year
    2010
    Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2011
  • 58. Top down recovery for lodging% change in RevPAR through July 2011 by tier
    Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2011
  • 59. % change in RevPAR through July 2011 -Getting better
    7.2
    11.2%
    8.3%
    5.6%
    8.8%
    10.0% or more
    7.5% to 9.9%
    5.0% to 7.4%
    0.0% to 4.9%
    Decrease
    Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2011
  • 60. Indiana Hotel Performance through July 2011Indiana performing somewhat below contiguous states
    2011 versus 2010
    Source: Smith Travel Research, August, 2011
  • 61. STR Forecasts for 2011 and 2012ADR drives up RevPAR
    Source: Smith Travel Research, July 2011
  • 62. Air Travel Faces a Bevy of Challenges
  • 63. Transportation demand “unsettled”
  • 64. International air enplanements growth outpacing domestic
  • 65. International Visitors…Welcome back!
    • Spend more per trip ($4,000 per overseas visitor)
    • 66. Stay longer (18 nights in U.S.)
    • 67. $31.7 billion trade surplus
    • 68. Stay in hotels (78%)
    • 69. They enjoy seeing the America we take for granted
  • International arrivals to U.S. sets new record!9 million more visitors than 2000
    (in millions)
    Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
  • 70. New record high for overseas arrivals… But, back to where we were in 2000
    Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
  • 71. Nearly all top origin markets posted gains in 2010U.K. only country to see a decline from 2009
    Caution: Impressive gains, but small base
    Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
  • 72. 2011 Booming! International visitation up 5% and spending up 12% through June
    (% change through June 2011)
    Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
  • 73. Percentage Change in International Arrivals Through June, 20118 of 10 top countries showing increases
    Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
  • 74. Overall change masks issues with top marketsU.K. and Japan still in recovery mode
    Impressive gains for
    largest int’l origins
    Troubling declines for
    largest overseas origins
    Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
  • 75. U.S. losing share of lucrative international travel market
    Long-haul travel around the world
    grew by 31% between 2000 and 2009
    31%
    -9%
    But, long-haul travel to the U.S. fell by 9%
    Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
  • 76. The “Lost Decade”
    Had the U.S. simply kept pace…
    68.3 million more international
    visitors
    $214 billion in new international
    visitor spending
    $295 billion additional secondary
    spending
    441,000 additional jobs
    $32 billion more in tax revenue
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Tourism Economics
  • 77. Promoting the U.S
  • 78. Forecasts Through 2013
  • 79. Total domestic visitors
    *Forecast
    Source: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics
  • 80. Total Domestic Visitors…Should set new record this year
    In billions
    * Forecast as of May 20, 2011
    Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
  • 81. Domestic leisure visitors
    *Forecast
    Source: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics
  • 82. Domestic Leisure VisitorsWill continue to set new reocrds
    In billions
    * Forecast as of May 20, 2011
    Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
  • 83. Domestic business travelers
    *Forecast
    Source: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics
  • 84. In millions
    Domestic business travel improves…But still well below 1998 record high
    * Forecast as of May 11, 2011
    Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
  • 85. International and Overseas arrivals continue to recover as well
    *Forecast
    Source: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics
  • 86. Sustained, but slow growth expected in 2011
    Domestic
    Leisure
    Volume
    Domestic
    Business
    Volume
    Domestic
    Spending
    International
    Visitors
    International
    Spending*
    1.2%
    2.4%
    (3.7%)
    (3.5%)
    5.8%
    7.3%
    (8.7%)
    (7.4%)
    Note: Numbers is parentheses are 2010 data
    10.0%
    *Excluding international airfares
    Sources: U.S. Travel Association; Oxford Economics/Tourism Economics;
    U.S. Department of Commerce-Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
    (9.8%)
  • 87. In this travel environment…“If you’re not at the table, you’ll be on the menu.”
  • 88. Funding often at the whim of elected officials
  • 89. Most State Tourism Office funding still tied to the public sector
    Source: U.S. Travel Association, Survey of State Tourism Office Budgets
  • 90. “The Power of Promotion” Travel and Tourism…An economic engine
    Question: How can we fund something like tourism promotion when we have to cover essential services like teachers, safety and highways?
    Answer: Tax revenue generated by travelers is immediate and are critical to financing essential services.
    2010 state/local travel tax revenues more than covered all wages paid to police and firefighters nationally
    Almost half of all wages paid to elementary and middle school teachers
  • 91. The Rise and Fall of State Tourism Office Budgets…Too much uncertainty from year to year
    Total State Tourism Office Budgets in Millions
    Source: U.S. Travel Association, Survey of State Tourism Office Budgets
  • 92. “The Power of Destination Marketing”What happens when you stop marketing…The Colorado Case
    30% loss in market share of overnight leisure trips
    $1.4 billion in lost traveler spending in first year
    $2.4 billion lost traveler spending per year within four years of closing
    $134 million in lost state and local tax receipts
    Tourism office back in game in 2000
    Funding increased to $19 million based on ROI of 12:1
    “The Rocky Mountains were there long before the Colorado Tourism Board and they’d be there long after. Surely, the tourists will keep on coming.”
  • 93. Today’s Consumer
  • 94. 2010 Census and Beyond Profound Population Shifts in Past 20 Years
    Bigger
    Older
    More Hispanic and Asian
    More cognizant of multiracial identities
    More accepting of non-traditional living situations – multi-generational households, unmarried couples, same-sex couples, living solo
    Less enamored of kids
    Redefined gender roles
    More suburban, and less rural
    Leaning more to the South and West
  • 95. Diversity Reigns
  • 96. Projected Growth in Travel for Ethnic Markets, 2010 – 2020
    Sources: Suzanne Cook Consulting, LLC and U.S. Travel Association estimates based on U.S. Travel Association’s travel economic impact data bases; U.S. Travel Association’s/Ypartnership’stravelhorizons™;TNS Travels America; Community Marketing LGBT research; and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, AHLA Report
  • 97. About the travelhorizonsTM Survey
    Looking forward instead of back
    Designed to measure travel intentions in the six months following the survey
    Quarterly online national survey of U.S. adults since March 2007
    Current survey conducted between July 19 – 30th
    Total of 2,200 responses from U.S. adults age 18+ and capturing 1,600 past year travelers per survey wave
    Respondents representative of the total U.S. population of adults age 18+
    Joint program between the U.S. Travel Association and Ypartnership
  • 98. August 8, 2011
    ©2011. All rights reserved.
    ©2010. Ypartnership, LLC./Harrison Group.
  • 99. Methodology
    Adults (>18 years of age)
    Reside in the United States
    Have an annual household income >$50,000
    Active Travelers: Have taken at least one leisure trip of 75 miles or more from home requiring overnight accommodations during the previous 12 months;
    Online interviews with 2,539 active leisure travelers conducted during February and March 2011.
  • 100. Consumer Trends
    to Watch
    New Culture Of Impatience
  • Present-Tense Reality
  • 104. Last-Minute travel is in…Must be constantly in the market place
    Source: Ypartnership/Harrison Group, 2011
  • 105. The New Resourcefulness
  • 106. The Rise of the Resourceful Shopper
    Rational Exuberance:
    … cutting back is more likely to have made them feel smart and prideful than deprived. And while they see many difficult challenges unfolding for society, remarkably, they have maintained their optimism ... and actually gotten happier.
  • 107. Smarter Shoppers
    48% of leisure travelers feel they are smarter shoppers thanks to the economic situation
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, February 2011
  • 108. The New Resourcefulness
    Gen Pop
  • 109. Travelers Demanding More for Their Money
    More leg room
    Upgraded guest room
    More bountiful breakfasts
    Free Internet & Wi-Fi
  • 110. The New Thrift…Generations and marketing implications
  • 111. The “Great Recession”…Telling it like it is
    Percentage of U.S. adults
    who agree with the statement:
    “Although the recession is technically over, I don’t feel like it is.”
    57%
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011
  • 112. Generations…
    Recovery is not equal
    Danny—
    Have a great day sweetie!
    xoxo
    Mom
  • 113. Millennials (Gen Ys)…
    I don’t understand a thing they say
    Millenials (Gen Ys)
    • 76 million “20 something's”
    • 114. Line between home and work
    doesn’t exist
    • More than half move back home
    with the folks after college
    • The “boomerang generation”
  • Gen Xers…
    Charlie & Robert – Sensing a trend?
    Gen Xers
    • 50 million
    • 115. Born in 60s to early 80s
    • 116. Post Vietnam
    • 117. Moving in and out of the
    work force
    • In high demand in work force
  • Baby Boomers – the best generation!
    Baby Boomers
    • 85 million!
    • 118. Expected to have time and $$$
    • 119. Juggling act between work and home
    • 120. Retiring or thinking about it
    • 121. 10,000 turn 65 every day
  • Matures
    Matures
    • Born in 1945 or before
    • 122. Age 65+
    • 123. Many retired or will be soon
    • 124. Depression-induced attitudes
    values persist
    • Connected
  • Positive attitudes about travel decline with age
    Positive
    Negative
    Q: Perceptions of travel compared to year ago
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011
  • 125. Younger more positive about having money available for travel… Mom & Dad?
    Positive
    Negative
    Q: Perceptions of travel compared to year ago?
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011
  • 126. Differences in Frame of Mind…Boomers less positive
    % agreeing strongly/very strongly with statement
    Numbers shown in red are significantly different from one or more other generations
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, February 2011
  • 127. Differences in Buying Behavior…Doing less of than before
    Extent to which shopping behavior has changed from a year ago (% less)
    Numbers shown in red are significantly different from one or more other generations
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, February 2011
  • 128. Differences in Spending…Doing less of than before
    Extent to which your spending has changed compared to a year ago (% less)
    Numbers shown in red are significantly different from one or more other generations
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, February 2011
  • 129. Differences in Leisure Travel Behavior…Older Americans lagging behind
    More likely to do during next 6 months compared to last year
    Numbers shown in red are significantly different from one or more other generations
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, February 2011
  • 130. Experience Based-Traveler
  • 131. Types of Leisure Trips and Vacations Over the Past Year
  • 132.
  • 133. One-Third of American Travelers Report Sustainability-Relevant Motivations
    Experientials
    Enthusiastic travelers interested in exploration and discovery.
    22.4 million, 18% of leisure travel market
    Quintessential Travelers
    Want to do it all.
    8.6 million, 7% of leisure travel market
    Trail Blazers
    Outdoor enthusiasts; interest in experiences and adventure.
    12.2 million, 10% of leisure travel market
  • 134. Other Travel Motivation Groups
    Family-Focused
    Travelers in this segment value family togetherness
    16% of leisure traveler market (19.6 million)
    Casual Travelers
    Not particularly travel-oriented; looking for rest and relaxation
    14% of leisure traveler market (17.2 million)
    Affluentials
    A younger group looking for a mix of relaxation, adventure, and luxury
    10% of leisure traveler market (12.3 million)
    Reconnectors
    Want to spend time with their significantother on vacation trips to reconnect through a slow-pace and a great deal of downtime while on vacation
    12% of leisure traveler market (14.7 million)
    Back to Basics
    Expects little from their vacation, and is satisfied with what they get
    9% of leisure traveler market (11.1 million)
  • 135. Burgeoning of Multi-Generational Travelers
    1/3 of grandparents have traveled with grand-kids; 70% of those trips also included grandkids’ parents
  • 136. The Cultural & Heritage Traveler Study
    Lead Sponsor
    Study Commissioned by
    In Partnership with
    Research Conducted by
    October 2009
  • 137. What is Cultural & Heritage Travel?
    Travel to experience the places, people, activities, and things that authentically represent the past and present, including cultural, historic, and natural resources.
    Source: Mandala Research, LLC
    3
  • 138. 118.3 million leisure travelers (or 78% of all leisure travelers) participate at some level in Cultural & Heritage activities while on a leisure trip.
    U.S. Adult Total Leisure Traveler Population
    (152 million)
    Five Cultural & Heritage Traveler Segments
    (118.3 million leisure travelers)
  • 139. Important factors in choosing leisure trip activities.
    Base: Cultural & Heritage Leisure Travelers n=815
    Q34. How important are each of the following factors when choosing the types of activities you do on a leisure trip?
    22
  • 140. Civil War Sesquicentennial… View from 30,000 feet
  • 141. 72 million U.S. adults “very/extremely” interested in engaging in Civil War sites/trails
    72 million
    114 million
    47 million
    Q26. How interested are you in engaging in Civil War sites/trails while traveling on a future leisure trip?
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, 2010
  • 142. Interest in Civil War sites/trails…Knows no geographic boundaries
    Northeast
    30%
    Midwest
    32%
    West
    30%
    South
    33%
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, 2010
  • 143. The Power of
    Technology and Media
  • 144. Travelers are Technology Users
    * Among users
  • 145. The Ubiquity of Social Networking
    --> Daily Use of Social Networking is Highest Among Millennials
    --> Share of Hours Spent Online is at Parity by Generations
  • 146. Elusive value of social media…Not yet a trusted source for travel information
    But can bring about revolutions.
  • 147. 6%
    2010
    9%
    2011
    Influence of Social Networking Growing
    Have made a travel decision based primarily on research or feedback received on a social networking website
    11%
    among $125,000+ HHI
  • 148. Visited a Collective Buying Site for Travel Deals
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership
  • 149. Visited a Collective Buying Site for Travel by Generation
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership
  • 150. What Purchased on a Collective Buying Site
    Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership
  • 151. Hand-Held Mobile Devices…The next big step is already in the hands of consumers
    • How consumers will purchase travel
    • 152. Make decisions while on the trip
    • 153. Adjust their routes to go off the beaten path
    • 154. Provides more flexibility
  • To Reiterate: Travelers are Technology Users
  • 155. There is light at the end of the tunnel
  • 156. U.S. Travel OutlookTo keep you in the know
  • 157. 2011 U.S. Travel Marketing Outlook Forum
    October 26 – 27, 2011
    Ft. Worth, Texas
  • 158. Or, you can rely on the old standby….
    “You will meet millions of tall, dark, handsome strangers with lots of money to spend in Indiana"-Suzanne Cook
  • 159. “Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.” --Warren Buffet
  • 160. Better words of advice.
    “It’s five o’clock somewhere.” --Jimmy Buffet
  • 161. Suzanne D. Cook, Ph.D.
    President, Suzanne Cook Consulting
    scook@suzannecookconsulting.com