The Long and Winding Road…<br />U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook<br />
Warning!<br />This presentation may cause drowsiness.<br />Presentation may even cause sudden loss of consciousness.<br />...
2001 – 2011: A Decade of Disasters and Distress <br />
But also a Decade of Rs…….……<br />Resilience<br />Renewal<br />Re-birth<br />Recovery<br />Resourcefulness<br />(Self)-rel...
Today’s Agenda<br />How far we have come – industry’s current performance<br />Where we are going in 2011 and beyond<br />...
On to the Outlook!<br />
Why “uncertainty” for 2011 and 2012…Because this is still what we’re facing<br />
You call this a recovery?  <br />
Turning the corner…What corner? <br />Another “soft patch” – weaker than <br />	expected economic performance<br />Housing...
It’s the Consumer, Stupid!   <br />
Consumer Confidence Plummets…Just can’t sustain consumer confidence <br />Lowest since April 2009<br /> 44.5 as of August<...
Consumer Confidence…Heading in the wrong direction<br />90 considered “healthy”<br />44.5<br />25.3<br />1985 = 100<br />S...
August Consumer Confidence Index for Past Five Years…<br />1985 = 100<br />Source: The Conference Board<br />
Even upper-income Americans are concerned<br />
Overall Traveler Sentiment IndexTMHas picked up modestly… <br />Interest in travel<br />Time for travel<br />Money availab...
Younger Americans the Most Positive about Travel <br />Source:  U.S. Travel Association/YPartnershiptravelhorizons™<br />
And their Positiveness is Gaining<br />Source:  U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™<br />
Affordability of Travel Index… Regains some ground <br />March 2007 = 100<br />Gas price rise<br />Source:  U.S. Travel As...
But travel prices still outpacing inflation <br />Percentage change through July 2011<br />YTD TPI = +6.7%<br />YTD CPI = ...
The cost of flying…Higher prices, fees, fees and more fees<br /><ul><li>Carry-on bags
 Checked bags
 Changed flights
 Booking by phone
 Preferred seating
 Cut-the-line
 Curb-side check-in
 Change to earlier flight
 Lavatory use (Ryan Air)</li></ul>$9.2 billion in fees to U.S. airlines in 2010 for checked baggage/other services.<br />T...
Gas prices up $0.93 from last year…Looking good for next few months <br />Indiana = $3.72<br />Source:  AAA Daily Fuel Gau...
Gas prices and travel…Right up there with other necessities<br />After pumping $60 of gas into his Chevy pickup, Chuck say...
Interest in Travel Remains Strong<br />Source:  U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™<br />
Travel PerformanceDigging out of the hole…..<br />
Total Domestic Visitors… Up 3.5% in 2010 <br />Millions of Person-Trips<br />Ugh!<br />Source:  U.S. Travel Association<br />
2010 Travel Performance<br />Domestic <br />Business<br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Leisure <br />Volume<br />Domestic<br ...
First Half 2011 Travel Performance<br />Domestic <br />Business<br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Leisure <br />Volume<br />D...
Leisure Travel Trends<br />
Domestic Leisure Visitors…Exceeded the 2007 high last year<br />Millions of Person-Trips<br />Bah!<br />Source:  U.S. Trav...
56% of U.S. adults planning at <br />least one leisure trip between   August and January<br />7 million more travelers<br />
Leisure Travel Intentions Highest in The West<br />Plan to take a leisure trip between August 2011 and January 2012<br />S...
And among Gen Xers and Matures<br />Plan to take a leisure trip between August 2011 and January 2012<br />Source: U.S. Tra...
Financial factors influencing leisure travel…Most not really travel related<br />Q:  To what degree is each of the followi...
Reasons for taking more leisure trips…3 Rs -- Rest, Relax, Reconnect<br /><ul><li>Reconnect with family/fiends (43%)
 Relieve stress/need to relax (34%)
  Break from home/work routine (26%)
  Have put off traveling due to economy – feeling     housebound (25%)</li></ul>Q:  Why are you planning on taking more le...
Opportunities exist to entice over 42 million “not sures” to take a leisure trip<br />Not Sure<br />18%<br />42 Million<br...
Outlook through January 2012<br />Still willing to travel, but making     adjustments in spending<br /> Still traveling cl...
Vacations Are Needed Now More than Ever!<br />
Business travelers – on the road and in the air again…..    <br />
Incidence of Business Travel Down 14 Points Over Past 5 Years, but Stabilizing <br />Percent taking business trip in past ...
Millions of Person-Trips<br />Source:  U.S. Travel Association<br />Domestic business travel improves…But still well below...
Business travel intentions – soft but steady<br />Percent planning to take a business trip during next six months<br />Sou...
Business travel – the province of the young<br />Plan to take a business trip between August 2011 and January 2012<br />So...
Lodging Trends<br />
Hotel demand… Stronger than expected <br />Percent change in room-nights sold over prior year<br />2010<br />2011<br />Sou...
Revenue Per Available Room positive…Driven primarily by rising demand<br />2011<br />Percent change over prior year<br />2...
Top down recovery for lodging% change in RevPAR through July 2011 by tier<br />Source:  Smith Travel Research, August 2011...
% change in RevPAR through July 2011 -Getting better<br />7.2<br />11.2%<br />8.3%<br />5.6%<br />8.8%<br />10.0%  or more...
Indiana Hotel Performance through July  2011Indiana performing somewhat below contiguous states<br />2011 versus 2010<br /...
STR Forecasts for 2011 and 2012ADR drives up RevPAR<br />Source:  Smith Travel Research, July 2011<br />
Air Travel Faces a Bevy of Challenges      <br />
Transportation demand “unsettled”<br />
International air enplanements growth outpacing domestic<br />
International Visitors…Welcome back!<br /><ul><li>  Spend more per trip ($4,000 per overseas visitor)
  Stay longer (18 nights in U.S.)
  $31.7 billion trade surplus
  Stay in hotels (78%)
  They enjoy seeing the America we take for granted</li></li></ul><li>International arrivals to U.S. sets new record!9 mil...
New record high for overseas arrivals… But, back to where we were in 2000<br />Source:  Office of Travel and Tourism Indus...
Nearly all top origin markets posted gains in 2010U.K. only country to see a decline from 2009<br />Caution:  Impressive g...
2011 Booming!  International visitation up 5% and spending up 12% through June<br />(% change through June 2011)<br />Sour...
Percentage Change in International Arrivals Through June, 20118 of 10 top countries showing increases<br />Source: Office ...
Overall change masks issues with top marketsU.K. and Japan still in recovery mode<br />Impressive gains for <br />largest ...
U.S. losing share of lucrative international travel market<br />Long-haul travel around the world <br />grew by 31% betwee...
The “Lost Decade”<br />Had the U.S. simply kept pace…<br />68.3 million more international <br />	visitors<br />$214 billi...
Promoting the U.S<br />
Forecasts Through 2013<br />
Total domestic visitors<br />*Forecast<br />Source:  U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics<br />
Total Domestic Visitors…Should set new record this year<br />In billions<br />* Forecast as of May 20, 2011<br />Source:  ...
Domestic leisure visitors<br />*Forecast<br />Source:  U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics<br />
Domestic Leisure VisitorsWill continue to set new reocrds<br />In billions<br />* Forecast as of May 20, 2011<br />Source:...
Domestic business travelers<br />*Forecast<br />Source:  U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics<br />
In millions<br />Domestic business travel improves…But still well below 1998 record high<br />* Forecast as of May 11, 201...
International and Overseas arrivals continue to recover as well<br />*Forecast<br />Source:  U.S. Travel Association; Tour...
Sustained, but slow growth expected in 2011<br />Domestic<br />Leisure<br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Business<br />Volume...
In this travel environment…“If you’re not at the table, you’ll be on the menu.”<br />
Funding often at the whim of elected officials<br />
Most State Tourism Office funding still tied to the public sector<br />Source:  U.S. Travel Association, Survey of State T...
“The Power of Promotion” Travel and Tourism…An economic engine<br />	Question:  How can we fund something like tourism pro...
The Rise and Fall of State Tourism Office Budgets…Too much uncertainty from year to year<br />Total State Tourism Office B...
“The Power of Destination Marketing”What happens when you stop marketing…The Colorado Case<br />30% loss in market share o...
Today’s Consumer<br />
2010 Census and Beyond Profound Population Shifts in Past 20 Years  <br />Bigger<br />Older<br />More Hispanic and Asian<b...
Diversity Reigns<br />
Projected Growth in Travel for Ethnic Markets, 2010 – 2020 <br />Sources:  Suzanne Cook Consulting, LLC and U.S. Travel As...
About the travelhorizonsTM Survey<br />Looking forward instead of back<br />Designed to measure travel intentions in the s...
August 8, 2011<br />©2011.  All rights reserved.<br />©2010. Ypartnership, LLC./Harrison Group. <br />
Methodology<br />Adults (>18 years of age)<br />Reside in the United States<br />Have an annual household income >$50,000 ...
Consumer Trends <br />to Watch<br />New Culture Of Impatience<br /><ul><li> Faster Food
 Faster Boot Ups
 Faster Downloads
Speed Vacations</li></li></ul><li>Present-Tense Reality<br />
Last-Minute travel is in…Must be constantly in the market place<br />Source:  Ypartnership/Harrison Group, 2011<br />
The New Resourcefulness<br />
The Rise of the Resourceful Shopper<br />Rational Exuberance:<br />      … cutting back is more likely to have made them f...
Smarter Shoppers<br />48% of leisure travelers feel they are smarter shoppers thanks to the economic situation<br />Source...
The New Resourcefulness<br />Gen Pop<br />
Travelers Demanding More for Their Money<br />More leg room <br />Upgraded guest room <br />More bountiful breakfasts<br /...
The New Thrift…Generations and marketing implications <br />
The “Great Recession”…Telling it like it is<br />Percentage of U.S. adults<br />who agree with the statement:<br />“Althou...
Generations…<br />Recovery is not equal <br />Danny—<br />Have a great day sweetie!<br />	xoxo<br />	 Mom<br />
Millennials (Gen Ys)…<br />I don’t understand a thing they say <br />Millenials (Gen Ys)<br /><ul><li> 76 million “20 some...
  Line between home and work</li></ul>   doesn’t exist<br /><ul><li>  More than half move back home</li></ul>   with the f...
 Born in 60s to early 80s
 Post Vietnam
 Moving in and out of the </li></ul>   work force <br /><ul><li> In high demand in work force</li></li></ul><li>Baby Boome...
 Expected to have time and $$$
 Juggling act between work and home
 Retiring or thinking about it
 10,000 turn 65 every day</li></li></ul><li>Matures <br />Matures<br /><ul><li> Born in 1945 or before
 Age 65+
 Many retired or will be soon
 Depression-induced attitudes </li></ul>  values persist<br /><ul><li> Connected</li></li></ul><li>Positive attitudes abou...
Younger more positive about having money available for travel… Mom & Dad?<br />Positive<br />Negative<br />Q:  Perceptions...
Differences in Frame of Mind…Boomers less positive<br />% agreeing strongly/very strongly with statement<br />Numbers show...
Differences in Buying Behavior…Doing less of than before<br />Extent to which shopping behavior has changed from a year ag...
Differences in Spending…Doing less of than before<br />Extent to which your spending has changed compared to a year ago (%...
Differences in Leisure Travel Behavior…Older Americans lagging behind<br />More likely to do during next 6 months compared...
Experience Based-Traveler<br />
Types of Leisure Trips and Vacations Over the Past Year<br />
One-Third of American Travelers Report Sustainability-Relevant Motivations<br />Experientials<br />Enthusiastic travelers ...
Other Travel Motivation Groups<br />Family-Focused<br />Travelers in this segment value family togetherness <br />16% of l...
Burgeoning of Multi-Generational Travelers<br />1/3 of grandparents have traveled with grand-kids; 70% of those trips also...
The Cultural & Heritage Traveler Study<br />Lead Sponsor<br />Study Commissioned by<br />In Partnership with<br />Research...
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The Long and Winding Road: U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook (Dr. Suzanne Cook at 2011 Indiana Tourism Summit)

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Dr. Suzanne Cook presented the U.S. Travel Trends Outlook for 2011/2012 at the Indiana Tourism Summit on September 15, 2011 at the Indianapolis Museum of Art

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  • Thank you for the opportunity to share our findings about The Cultural &amp; Heritage Traveler. We commissioned Mandala Research to conduct this study on behalf of USCHT because although there has been a great deal of confirmation that the cultural and heritage traveler is a very productive market,More affluent, travels more frequently and stays longer, we wanted to better understand who the Cultural &amp; Heritage traveler is,Including His or her travel preferences, decision making process.We found that many others wanted this type of information including the Department of Commerce and our Lead Sponsor, Heritage Travel, Inc. which has just launched their new website Gozaic.
  • The Long and Winding Road: U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook (Dr. Suzanne Cook at 2011 Indiana Tourism Summit)

    1. 1. The Long and Winding Road…<br />U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook<br />
    2. 2. Warning!<br />This presentation may cause drowsiness.<br />Presentation may even cause sudden loss of consciousness.<br />Do not operate heavy equipment immediately following the presentation.<br />If any of these conditions persist for more than four hours, seek help immediately.<br />Rare but serious side effects may occur. <br />
    3. 3. 2001 – 2011: A Decade of Disasters and Distress <br />
    4. 4.
    5. 5. But also a Decade of Rs…….……<br />Resilience<br />Renewal<br />Re-birth<br />Recovery<br />Resourcefulness<br />(Self)-reliance<br />
    6. 6. Today’s Agenda<br />How far we have come – industry’s current performance<br />Where we are going in 2011 and beyond<br />Traveler trends and opportunities<br />Digital media trends<br />Staying ahead <br />
    7. 7. On to the Outlook!<br />
    8. 8. Why “uncertainty” for 2011 and 2012…Because this is still what we’re facing<br />
    9. 9. You call this a recovery? <br />
    10. 10. Turning the corner…What corner? <br />Another “soft patch” – weaker than <br /> expected economic performance<br />Housing market remains very weak<br />Americans’ spending plans still on hold – <br /> stuck in 2009/2010 “new normal” range <br />Labor market has weakened again – unemployment rate up to 9.1% <br />Inflationary pressures easing but still high in travel<br />Ongoing debt crisis<br />Threat of higher taxes<br />
    11. 11. It’s the Consumer, Stupid! <br />
    12. 12. Consumer Confidence Plummets…Just can’t sustain consumer confidence <br />Lowest since April 2009<br /> 44.5 as of August<br />90.0 is considered healthy<br />1985 = 100<br />Source: The Conference Board, August 30, 2011<br />
    13. 13. Consumer Confidence…Heading in the wrong direction<br />90 considered “healthy”<br />44.5<br />25.3<br />1985 = 100<br />Source: The Conference Board<br />
    14. 14. August Consumer Confidence Index for Past Five Years…<br />1985 = 100<br />Source: The Conference Board<br />
    15. 15. Even upper-income Americans are concerned<br />
    16. 16. Overall Traveler Sentiment IndexTMHas picked up modestly… <br />Interest in travel<br />Time for travel<br />Money available for travel<br />Affordability of travel<br />Quality of service<br />Safety of travel in U.S.<br />March 2007 = 100<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011<br />
    17. 17. Younger Americans the Most Positive about Travel <br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnershiptravelhorizons™<br />
    18. 18. And their Positiveness is Gaining<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™<br />
    19. 19. Affordability of Travel Index… Regains some ground <br />March 2007 = 100<br />Gas price rise<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011<br />
    20. 20. But travel prices still outpacing inflation <br />Percentage change through July 2011<br />YTD TPI = +6.7%<br />YTD CPI = +2.9%<br />Does not include <br />various fees<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association Travel Price Index<br />
    21. 21. The cost of flying…Higher prices, fees, fees and more fees<br /><ul><li>Carry-on bags
    22. 22. Checked bags
    23. 23. Changed flights
    24. 24. Booking by phone
    25. 25. Preferred seating
    26. 26. Cut-the-line
    27. 27. Curb-side check-in
    28. 28. Change to earlier flight
    29. 29. Lavatory use (Ryan Air)</li></ul>$9.2 billion in fees to U.S. airlines in 2010 for checked baggage/other services.<br />TSA estimates there were 59 million more carry-ons in 2010 than in 2009. <br />
    30. 30. Gas prices up $0.93 from last year…Looking good for next few months <br />Indiana = $3.72<br />Source: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report as of September 13, 2011<br />www.aaa.org<br />
    31. 31. Gas prices and travel…Right up there with other necessities<br />After pumping $60 of gas into his Chevy pickup, Chuck says he’s giving up <br />cigarettes, beer and a vacation. <br />“I’ll sit at home and cook out and won’t go anywhere.” <br />Source: USA Today, Friday, March 11, 2001<br />
    32. 32. Interest in Travel Remains Strong<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™<br />
    33. 33. Travel PerformanceDigging out of the hole…..<br />
    34. 34. Total Domestic Visitors… Up 3.5% in 2010 <br />Millions of Person-Trips<br />Ugh!<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association<br />
    35. 35. 2010 Travel Performance<br />Domestic <br />Business<br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Leisure <br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Spending<br />3.5%<br />3.5%<br />3.7% <br />(-3.4%) <br />(-2.5%)<br />(-6.3%)<br />7.7%<br />Note: Numbers in parentheses are 2009 data<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics<br />(-8.8)<br />
    36. 36. First Half 2011 Travel Performance<br />Domestic <br />Business<br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Leisure <br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Spending<br />1.9% <br />2.6%<br />2.8%<br />7.8%<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics<br />
    37. 37. Leisure Travel Trends<br />
    38. 38. Domestic Leisure Visitors…Exceeded the 2007 high last year<br />Millions of Person-Trips<br />Bah!<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association<br />
    39. 39. 56% of U.S. adults planning at <br />least one leisure trip between August and January<br />7 million more travelers<br />
    40. 40. Leisure Travel Intentions Highest in The West<br />Plan to take a leisure trip between August 2011 and January 2012<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnershiptravelhorizons™<br />
    41. 41. And among Gen Xers and Matures<br />Plan to take a leisure trip between August 2011 and January 2012<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnershiptravelhorizons™<br />
    42. 42. Financial factors influencing leisure travel…Most not really travel related<br />Q: To what degree is each of the following financial issues currently affecting your leisure vacation plans over the next 12 months? (Somewhat to much less likely to travel)<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011<br />
    43. 43. Reasons for taking more leisure trips…3 Rs -- Rest, Relax, Reconnect<br /><ul><li>Reconnect with family/fiends (43%)
    44. 44. Relieve stress/need to relax (34%)
    45. 45. Break from home/work routine (26%)
    46. 46. Have put off traveling due to economy – feeling housebound (25%)</li></ul>Q: Why are you planning on taking more leisure trips during the next 6 months?<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011<br />
    47. 47. Opportunities exist to entice over 42 million “not sures” to take a leisure trip<br />Not Sure<br />18%<br />42 Million<br />No Plans to Travel<br />26%<br />60 Million<br />Q: Over the next 6 months, do you plan to take any leisure trips of at least 50 miles one way from home or that will include an overnight stay?<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011<br />
    48. 48. Outlook through January 2012<br />Still willing to travel, but making adjustments in spending<br /> Still traveling close to home <br /> Overnight leisure trips shorter in duration<br /> More day trips <br /> More long weekend getaways<br /> Plans can change, but…..<br />
    49. 49. Vacations Are Needed Now More than Ever!<br />
    50. 50. Business travelers – on the road and in the air again….. <br />
    51. 51. Incidence of Business Travel Down 14 Points Over Past 5 Years, but Stabilizing <br />Percent taking business trip in past year <br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM<br />
    52. 52. Millions of Person-Trips<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association<br />Domestic business travel improves…But still well below 1998 record high<br />Ouch!<br />
    53. 53. Business travel intentions – soft but steady<br />Percent planning to take a business trip during next six months<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM<br />
    54. 54. Business travel – the province of the young<br />Plan to take a business trip between August 2011 and January 2012<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnershiptravelhorizons™<br />
    55. 55. Lodging Trends<br />
    56. 56. Hotel demand… Stronger than expected <br />Percent change in room-nights sold over prior year<br />2010<br />2011<br />Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2011<br />
    57. 57. Revenue Per Available Room positive…Driven primarily by rising demand<br />2011<br />Percent change over prior year<br />2010<br />Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2011<br />
    58. 58. Top down recovery for lodging% change in RevPAR through July 2011 by tier<br />Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2011<br />
    59. 59. % change in RevPAR through July 2011 -Getting better<br />7.2<br />11.2%<br />8.3%<br />5.6%<br />8.8%<br />10.0% or more<br />7.5% to 9.9%<br />5.0% to 7.4%<br />0.0% to 4.9%<br />Decrease<br />Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2011<br />
    60. 60. Indiana Hotel Performance through July 2011Indiana performing somewhat below contiguous states<br />2011 versus 2010<br />Source: Smith Travel Research, August, 2011<br />
    61. 61. STR Forecasts for 2011 and 2012ADR drives up RevPAR<br />Source: Smith Travel Research, July 2011<br />
    62. 62. Air Travel Faces a Bevy of Challenges <br />
    63. 63. Transportation demand “unsettled”<br />
    64. 64. International air enplanements growth outpacing domestic<br />
    65. 65. International Visitors…Welcome back!<br /><ul><li> Spend more per trip ($4,000 per overseas visitor)
    66. 66. Stay longer (18 nights in U.S.)
    67. 67. $31.7 billion trade surplus
    68. 68. Stay in hotels (78%)
    69. 69. They enjoy seeing the America we take for granted</li></li></ul><li>International arrivals to U.S. sets new record!9 million more visitors than 2000<br />(in millions)<br />Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries<br />
    70. 70. New record high for overseas arrivals… But, back to where we were in 2000<br />Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries<br />
    71. 71. Nearly all top origin markets posted gains in 2010U.K. only country to see a decline from 2009<br />Caution: Impressive gains, but small base<br />Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries<br />
    72. 72. 2011 Booming! International visitation up 5% and spending up 12% through June<br />(% change through June 2011)<br />Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries <br />
    73. 73. Percentage Change in International Arrivals Through June, 20118 of 10 top countries showing increases<br />Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries <br />
    74. 74. Overall change masks issues with top marketsU.K. and Japan still in recovery mode<br />Impressive gains for <br />largest int’l origins<br />Troubling declines for <br />largest overseas origins<br />Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries<br />
    75. 75. U.S. losing share of lucrative international travel market<br />Long-haul travel around the world <br />grew by 31% between 2000 and 2009<br />31%<br />-9%<br />But, long-haul travel to the U.S. fell by 9%<br />Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries<br />
    76. 76. The “Lost Decade”<br />Had the U.S. simply kept pace…<br />68.3 million more international <br /> visitors<br />$214 billion in new international <br /> visitor spending<br />$295 billion additional secondary <br />spending<br />441,000 additional jobs<br />$32 billion more in tax revenue<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Tourism Economics<br />
    77. 77. Promoting the U.S<br />
    78. 78. Forecasts Through 2013<br />
    79. 79. Total domestic visitors<br />*Forecast<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics<br />
    80. 80. Total Domestic Visitors…Should set new record this year<br />In billions<br />* Forecast as of May 20, 2011<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics<br />
    81. 81. Domestic leisure visitors<br />*Forecast<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics<br />
    82. 82. Domestic Leisure VisitorsWill continue to set new reocrds<br />In billions<br />* Forecast as of May 20, 2011<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics<br />
    83. 83. Domestic business travelers<br />*Forecast<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics<br />
    84. 84. In millions<br />Domestic business travel improves…But still well below 1998 record high<br />* Forecast as of May 11, 2011<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics<br />
    85. 85. International and Overseas arrivals continue to recover as well<br />*Forecast<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics<br />
    86. 86. Sustained, but slow growth expected in 2011<br />Domestic<br />Leisure<br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Business<br />Volume<br />Domestic<br />Spending<br />International<br />Visitors<br />International<br />Spending*<br />1.2%<br />2.4%<br />(3.7%)<br />(3.5%)<br />5.8% <br />7.3% <br />(8.7%) <br />(7.4%) <br />Note: Numbers is parentheses are 2010 data<br />10.0%<br />*Excluding international airfares<br />Sources: U.S. Travel Association; Oxford Economics/Tourism Economics; <br />U.S. Department of Commerce-Office of Travel and Tourism Industries<br />(9.8%) <br />
    87. 87. In this travel environment…“If you’re not at the table, you’ll be on the menu.”<br />
    88. 88. Funding often at the whim of elected officials<br />
    89. 89. Most State Tourism Office funding still tied to the public sector<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association, Survey of State Tourism Office Budgets<br />
    90. 90. “The Power of Promotion” Travel and Tourism…An economic engine<br /> Question: How can we fund something like tourism promotion when we have to cover essential services like teachers, safety and highways?<br />Answer: Tax revenue generated by travelers is immediate and are critical to financing essential services. <br />2010 state/local travel tax revenues more than covered all wages paid to police and firefighters nationally<br />Almost half of all wages paid to elementary and middle school teachers<br />
    91. 91. The Rise and Fall of State Tourism Office Budgets…Too much uncertainty from year to year<br />Total State Tourism Office Budgets in Millions<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association, Survey of State Tourism Office Budgets<br />
    92. 92. “The Power of Destination Marketing”What happens when you stop marketing…The Colorado Case<br />30% loss in market share of overnight leisure trips<br />$1.4 billion in lost traveler spending in first year<br />$2.4 billion lost traveler spending per year within four years of closing<br />$134 million in lost state and local tax receipts<br />Tourism office back in game in 2000<br />Funding increased to $19 million based on ROI of 12:1<br />“The Rocky Mountains were there long before the Colorado Tourism Board and they’d be there long after. Surely, the tourists will keep on coming.” <br />
    93. 93. Today’s Consumer<br />
    94. 94. 2010 Census and Beyond Profound Population Shifts in Past 20 Years <br />Bigger<br />Older<br />More Hispanic and Asian<br />More cognizant of multiracial identities<br />More accepting of non-traditional living situations – multi-generational households, unmarried couples, same-sex couples, living solo<br />Less enamored of kids<br />Redefined gender roles<br />More suburban, and less rural<br />Leaning more to the South and West<br />
    95. 95. Diversity Reigns<br />
    96. 96. Projected Growth in Travel for Ethnic Markets, 2010 – 2020 <br />Sources: Suzanne Cook Consulting, LLC and U.S. Travel Association estimates based on U.S. Travel Association’s travel economic impact data bases; U.S. Travel Association’s/Ypartnership’stravelhorizons™;TNS Travels America; Community Marketing LGBT research; and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, AHLA Report <br />
    97. 97. About the travelhorizonsTM Survey<br />Looking forward instead of back<br />Designed to measure travel intentions in the six months following the survey<br />Quarterly online national survey of U.S. adults since March 2007<br />Current survey conducted between July 19 – 30th<br />Total of 2,200 responses from U.S. adults age 18+ and capturing 1,600 past year travelers per survey wave<br />Respondents representative of the total U.S. population of adults age 18+<br />Joint program between the U.S. Travel Association and Ypartnership<br />
    98. 98. August 8, 2011<br />©2011. All rights reserved.<br />©2010. Ypartnership, LLC./Harrison Group. <br />
    99. 99. Methodology<br />Adults (>18 years of age)<br />Reside in the United States<br />Have an annual household income >$50,000 <br />Active Travelers: Have taken at least one leisure trip of 75 miles or more from home requiring overnight accommodations during the previous 12 months;<br />Online interviews with 2,539 active leisure travelers conducted during February and March 2011.<br />
    100. 100. Consumer Trends <br />to Watch<br />New Culture Of Impatience<br /><ul><li> Faster Food
    101. 101. Faster Boot Ups
    102. 102. Faster Downloads
    103. 103. Speed Vacations</li></li></ul><li>Present-Tense Reality<br />
    104. 104. Last-Minute travel is in…Must be constantly in the market place<br />Source: Ypartnership/Harrison Group, 2011<br />
    105. 105. The New Resourcefulness<br />
    106. 106. The Rise of the Resourceful Shopper<br />Rational Exuberance:<br /> … cutting back is more likely to have made them feel smart and prideful than deprived. And while they see many difficult challenges unfolding for society, remarkably, they have maintained their optimism ... and actually gotten happier.<br />
    107. 107. Smarter Shoppers<br />48% of leisure travelers feel they are smarter shoppers thanks to the economic situation<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, February 2011<br />
    108. 108. The New Resourcefulness<br />Gen Pop<br />
    109. 109. Travelers Demanding More for Their Money<br />More leg room <br />Upgraded guest room <br />More bountiful breakfasts<br />Free Internet & Wi-Fi<br />
    110. 110. The New Thrift…Generations and marketing implications <br />
    111. 111. The “Great Recession”…Telling it like it is<br />Percentage of U.S. adults<br />who agree with the statement:<br />“Although the recession is technically over, I don’t feel like it is.” <br />57%<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011<br />
    112. 112. Generations…<br />Recovery is not equal <br />Danny—<br />Have a great day sweetie!<br /> xoxo<br /> Mom<br />
    113. 113. Millennials (Gen Ys)…<br />I don’t understand a thing they say <br />Millenials (Gen Ys)<br /><ul><li> 76 million “20 something's”
    114. 114. Line between home and work</li></ul> doesn’t exist<br /><ul><li> More than half move back home</li></ul> with the folks after college <br /><ul><li> The “boomerang generation”</li></li></ul><li>Gen Xers…<br />Charlie & Robert – Sensing a trend? <br />Gen Xers<br /><ul><li> 50 million
    115. 115. Born in 60s to early 80s
    116. 116. Post Vietnam
    117. 117. Moving in and out of the </li></ul> work force <br /><ul><li> In high demand in work force</li></li></ul><li>Baby Boomers – the best generation! <br />Baby Boomers<br /><ul><li> 85 million!
    118. 118. Expected to have time and $$$
    119. 119. Juggling act between work and home
    120. 120. Retiring or thinking about it
    121. 121. 10,000 turn 65 every day</li></li></ul><li>Matures <br />Matures<br /><ul><li> Born in 1945 or before
    122. 122. Age 65+
    123. 123. Many retired or will be soon
    124. 124. Depression-induced attitudes </li></ul> values persist<br /><ul><li> Connected</li></li></ul><li>Positive attitudes about travel decline with age <br />Positive<br />Negative<br />Q: Perceptions of travel compared to year ago<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011<br />
    125. 125. Younger more positive about having money available for travel… Mom & Dad?<br />Positive<br />Negative<br />Q: Perceptions of travel compared to year ago?<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011<br />
    126. 126. Differences in Frame of Mind…Boomers less positive<br />% agreeing strongly/very strongly with statement<br />Numbers shown in red are significantly different from one or more other generations<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, February 2011<br />
    127. 127. Differences in Buying Behavior…Doing less of than before<br />Extent to which shopping behavior has changed from a year ago (% less)<br />Numbers shown in red are significantly different from one or more other generations<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, February 2011<br />
    128. 128. Differences in Spending…Doing less of than before<br />Extent to which your spending has changed compared to a year ago (% less)<br />Numbers shown in red are significantly different from one or more other generations<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, February 2011<br />
    129. 129. Differences in Leisure Travel Behavior…Older Americans lagging behind<br />More likely to do during next 6 months compared to last year<br />Numbers shown in red are significantly different from one or more other generations<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, February 2011<br />
    130. 130. Experience Based-Traveler<br />
    131. 131. Types of Leisure Trips and Vacations Over the Past Year<br />
    132. 132.
    133. 133. One-Third of American Travelers Report Sustainability-Relevant Motivations<br />Experientials<br />Enthusiastic travelers interested in exploration and discovery.<br />22.4 million, 18% of leisure travel market<br />Quintessential Travelers<br />Want to do it all.<br />8.6 million, 7% of leisure travel market<br />Trail Blazers<br />Outdoor enthusiasts; interest in experiences and adventure.<br />12.2 million, 10% of leisure travel market<br />
    134. 134. Other Travel Motivation Groups<br />Family-Focused<br />Travelers in this segment value family togetherness <br />16% of leisure traveler market (19.6 million)<br />Casual Travelers<br />Not particularly travel-oriented; looking for rest and relaxation <br />14% of leisure traveler market (17.2 million) <br />Affluentials<br />A younger group looking for a mix of relaxation, adventure, and luxury<br />10% of leisure traveler market (12.3 million)<br />Reconnectors<br />Want to spend time with their significantother on vacation trips to reconnect through a slow-pace and a great deal of downtime while on vacation <br />12% of leisure traveler market (14.7 million)<br />Back to Basics <br />Expects little from their vacation, and is satisfied with what they get <br />9% of leisure traveler market (11.1 million)<br />
    135. 135. Burgeoning of Multi-Generational Travelers<br />1/3 of grandparents have traveled with grand-kids; 70% of those trips also included grandkids’ parents<br />
    136. 136. The Cultural & Heritage Traveler Study<br />Lead Sponsor<br />Study Commissioned by<br />In Partnership with<br />Research Conducted by<br />October 2009<br />
    137. 137. What is Cultural & Heritage Travel?<br />Travel to experience the places, people, activities, and things that authentically represent the past and present, including cultural, historic, and natural resources.<br />Source: Mandala Research, LLC<br />3<br />
    138. 138. 118.3 million leisure travelers (or 78% of all leisure travelers) participate at some level in Cultural & Heritage activities while on a leisure trip.<br />U.S. Adult Total Leisure Traveler Population<br />(152 million)<br />Five Cultural & Heritage Traveler Segments<br />(118.3 million leisure travelers)<br />
    139. 139. Important factors in choosing leisure trip activities.<br />Base: Cultural & Heritage Leisure Travelers n=815<br />Q34. How important are each of the following factors when choosing the types of activities you do on a leisure trip? <br />22<br />
    140. 140. Civil War Sesquicentennial… View from 30,000 feet<br />
    141. 141. 72 million U.S. adults “very/extremely” interested in engaging in Civil War sites/trails<br />72 million<br />114 million<br />47 million<br />Q26. How interested are you in engaging in Civil War sites/trails while traveling on a future leisure trip?<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, 2010<br />
    142. 142. Interest in Civil War sites/trails…Knows no geographic boundaries<br />Northeast <br />30%<br />Midwest <br />32%<br />West <br />30%<br />South<br />33%<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, 2010<br />
    143. 143. The Power of <br />Technology and Media <br />
    144. 144. Travelers are Technology Users<br />* Among users<br />
    145. 145. The Ubiquity of Social Networking<br />--> Daily Use of Social Networking is Highest Among Millennials<br />--> Share of Hours Spent Online is at Parity by Generations<br />
    146. 146. Elusive value of social media…Not yet a trusted source for travel information<br />But can bring about revolutions.<br />
    147. 147. 6%<br />2010<br />9%<br />2011<br />Influence of Social Networking Growing<br />Have made a travel decision based primarily on research or feedback received on a social networking website<br />11%<br />among $125,000+ HHI<br />
    148. 148. Visited a Collective Buying Site for Travel Deals<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership<br />
    149. 149. Visited a Collective Buying Site for Travel by Generation<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership<br />
    150. 150. What Purchased on a Collective Buying Site<br />Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership<br />
    151. 151. Hand-Held Mobile Devices…The next big step is already in the hands of consumers<br /><ul><li>How consumers will purchase travel
    152. 152. Make decisions while on the trip
    153. 153. Adjust their routes to go off the beaten path
    154. 154. Provides more flexibility</li></li></ul><li>To Reiterate: Travelers are Technology Users<br />
    155. 155. There is light at the end of the tunnel<br />
    156. 156. U.S. Travel OutlookTo keep you in the know <br />
    157. 157. 2011 U.S. Travel Marketing Outlook Forum<br />October 26 – 27, 2011<br />Ft. Worth, Texas<br />
    158. 158. Or, you can rely on the old standby…. <br />“You will meet millions of tall, dark, handsome strangers with lots of money to spend in Indiana"-Suzanne Cook<br />
    159. 159. “Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.” --Warren Buffet<br />
    160. 160. Better words of advice. <br />“It’s five o’clock somewhere.” --Jimmy Buffet<br />
    161. 161. Suzanne D. Cook, Ph.D.<br />President, Suzanne Cook Consulting<br />scook@suzannecookconsulting.com<br />

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