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Gas to Liquids (GTL) Market 2014 2024

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For an Executive Summary of this report please contact ediz.ibrahim@visiongain.com (+44 (0)20 7549 9976) or refer to our website …

For an Executive Summary of this report please contact ediz.ibrahim@visiongain.com (+44 (0)20 7549 9976) or refer to our website http://www.visiongain.com/Report/1200/Gas-to-Liquids-%28GTL%29-Market-Forecast-2014-2024

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  • 1. Gas to Liquids (GTL) Market Forecast 2014-2024 What Are The Future Prospects for Companies in this Major XTL Segment? ©notice This material is copyright by visiongain. It is against the law to reproduce any of this material without the prior written agreement of visiongain. You cannot photocopy, fax, download to database or duplicate in any other way any of the material contained in this report. Each purchase and single copy is for personal use only.
  • 2. Contents 1. Executive Summary 1.1 Global Gas-to-Liquids Market Overview 1.2 Benefits of This Report 1.3 Who is This Report For? 1.4 Methodology and Gas-to-Liquids Market Definition 2. Introduction to the GTL Market 2.1 Gas-to-Liquids Market Definition 2.1.1 Defining Gas-to-Liquids 2.1.2 Defining the Gas-to-Liquids Markets 2.2 The Gas-to-Liquids Market Structure 2.2.1 Large-Scale GTL Facilities and Geographical Market Forecasts 2.2.2 Small-Scale Market Forecast 2.2.3 Forecast of Volume of GTL Produced 2.2.4 GTL Liquids Sales Forecast 2.3 Small-Scale Gas-to-Liquids Definition 2.3.1 What Are The Applications of Small-Scale GTL? 2.4 GTL Technology 2.4.1 Fischer-Tropsch (FT) 2.4.2 Modular GTL 2.4.3 Methanol-to-Gasoline (MTG) 2.4.4 Other Methods 2.5 Pilot, Demonstration, Semi-Commercial and Research GTL Facilities 2.6 GTL Technology Cost 2.7 Recent History of Commercial GTL 3. Global GTL Markets 2014-2024 3.1 The Global GTL Markets 2014-2024 3.1.1 What are the Overarching Drivers and Restraints on the GTL Markets as a Whole? 3.1.1.1 Drivers 3.1.1.2 Restraints 3.1.2 Are Exceptional Circumstances Still the Prime Determinant of GTL Industry Investment? 3.1.2.1 Conventional Requirements for GTL Feasibility 3.1.2.2 Requirements for GTL Feasibility (How Small-Scale GTL Can Change the Rules) www.visiongain.com
  • 3. Contents 3.1.3 What Are the Economics of GTL and How Greatly is a GTL Facility Viability Affected by the Oil & Gas Price? 3.1.4 The Future of Commercial GTL 3.2 The Global GTL Capital Expenditure Forecast 2014-2024 3.3 The Global GTL Liquids Production Forecast 2014-2024 3.4 The Global GTL Liquids Sales Forecast 2014-2024 4. GTL Capital Expenditure Submarkets 2014-2024 4.1 Large-Scale GTL Facility CAPEX Forecast 2014-2024 4.1.1 What Challenges Do Financiers of Large-Scale GTL Face? 4.1.2 Large Scale GTL Projects 4.2 Small-Scale GTL Facility CAPEX Forecast 2014-2024 4.2.1 Small-Scale GTL Drivers & Restraints 4.2.2 What Is Preventing Small-Scale GTL from Taking Off? 4.2.3 What Is The Potential Resource Available for Monetisation by Small-Scale GTL? 4.2.4 What Percentage of Small-Scale GTL Spending Has Been Disclosed? 4.2.5 What Are The Applications of Small-Scale GTL? 4.2.6 What Are the Prime Markets For Initial Small-Scale GTL Production? 4.2.7 What is the Potential of Nigeria and Russia for Small-Scale GTL Monetisation? 4.2.8 What Impact Will The US Shale (Tight) Oil Revolution Have on the Small-Scale GTL Market? 4.2.9 What Is the Market for Small-Scale GTL? 4.2.10 Small-Scale GTL Projects 5. Leading Regional and National GTL Markets 2014-2024 5.1 US GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 5.1.1 US GTL Drivers & Restraints 5.1.2 How Will The Arbitrage Opportunity Between Oil & Gas and US Natural Gas Reserves Affect the Development of the US GTL Industry? 5.1.3 What Type of Large-Scale GTL Facility is Likely to Be Built in the US Market? 5.1.4 What Role Does the Political and Business Climate in the US Play in the Development of the GTL Industry? 5.1.5 How Do The Gasoline and Diesel Markets Affect GTL Prospects in the US? 5.1.6 What Economic Consideration Must Be Made in the US with Regard to GTL Financing? 5.1.7 Why Was The Shell Proposal in Louisiana Cancelled? 5.1.8 US GTL Projects www.visiongain.com
  • 4. Contents 5.1.9 What is the Most Prominent Emerging Trend for GTL in the US? 5.1.10 Previous US GTL Experiences and Proposals 5.1.11 US Ethylene Crackers 5.2 Qatari GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 5.2.1 Qatari GTL Market Drivers & Restraints 5.2.2 When is the Qatar North Field Moratorium Likely to End? 5.2.3 What Are Qatari GTL Prospects Post-Moratorium? 5.2.4 What Impact Will LNG Exports from Qatar Have on GTL CAPEX? 5.2.5 How Does the Qatari Gas and Oil Market Affect GTL Prospects? 5.2.6 What is the Role of the Qatari Government in the GTL Market? 5.2.7 Qatari GTL Projects 5.3 Southern Africa GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 5.3.1 The Mozambique GTL Market 5.3.1.1 Mozambique GTL Market Drivers & Restraints 5.3.1.2 Mozambique GTL Market Analysis 5.3.2 The South African GTL Market 5.3.2.1 South African GTL Market Drivers & Restraints 5.3.2.2 South African GTL Market Analysis 5.3.3 Southern Africa GTL Projects 5.4 Canadian GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 5.4.1 Canadian GTL Market Drivers & Restraints 5.4.2 Canadian Shale Gas Acreage and GTL 5.4.3 How Favourable Are GTL Economics in Canada? 5.4.4 How Will Canadian LNG Exports Affect GTL Prospects? 5.4.5 What Pipeline Infrastructure Limitations Will Impact GTL? 5.4.6 Canadian GTL Projects 5.5 Iranian GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 5.5.1 Iranian GTL Market Drivers & Restraints 5.5.2 Iranian GTL Market Analysis 5.5.3 What is the Current R&D Position of the Iranian GTL Industry? 5.5.4 What Progress Is Being Made Regarding Iranian Sanctions and How Would Progress Impact the GTL Market? 5.5.5 Iranian GTL Projects 5.6 Rest of the World (RoW) GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 5.6.1 Rest of the World (RoW) GTL Projects 5.6.2 The Algerian GTL Market www.visiongain.com
  • 5. Contents 5.6.3 The Australian GTL Market 5.6.3.1 Australian GTL Drivers & Restraints 5.6.3.2 Previous Australian GTL Proposals 5.6.4 The Malaysian GTL Market 5.6.5 The Nigerian GTL Market 5.6.5.1 What Factors Affect Business and GTL Propositions in Nigeria? 5.6.5.2 What Security Threats in Nigeria Affect the GTL Market? 5.6.5.3 Nigerian GTL Market Drivers & Restraints 5.6.6 The Russian GTL Market 5.6.6.1 Present Russian GTL Proposals 5.6.6.2 Previous Russian GTL Proposals 5.6.7 The Trinidad & Tobago GTL Market 5.6.7.1 Previous Trinidad and Tobago GTL Proposals 5.6.8 The Turkmenistan GTL Market 5.6.9 The Uzbekistan GTL Market 5.6.9.1 Uzbekistan GTL Market Drivers & Restraints 6. Barriers to Entry Analysis of the GTL Market 7. PEST Analysis of the GTL Market 8. Expert Opinion 8.1 Velocys 8.1.1 The Vision of Velocys 8.1.2 The GTL Product 8.1.3 Competitive Advantages of Velocys? 8.1.4 The Arbitrage Opportunity in North America 8.1.5 When Will Smaller-Scale GTL Take Off? 8.1.6 Investment in Smaller-Scale GTL 8.1.7 Smaller-Scale GTL Applications and Opportunities 8.1.8 Fischer-Tropsch versus Methanol-to-Gasoline 8.1.9 Secondary Drivers for Spending on GTL Solutions 8.2 Primus Green Energy www.visiongain.com
  • 6. Contents 8.2.1 The Aims of Primus Green Energy 8.2.2 The STG+ Process 8.2.3 Competitive Advantages of STG+ 8.2.4 CAPEX Definitions and the GTL Industry 8.2.5 Target Market for GTL Solution Application 8.2.6 Investment in Small-Scale GTL 8.2.7 Barriers to Small-Scale GTL Industry Development 8.2.8 Shell’s Louisiana GTL Plant 8.3 Infra Technology 8.3.1 Infra Technology and the Gas-to-Liquids Market 8.3.2 Infra Technology Product 8.3.3 Challenges Facing Infra Technology and the GTL Industry 8.3.4 The Potential of Methanol-to-Gasoline 8.3.5 Small-Scale GTL versus Large-Scale GTL 8.3.6 Infra Technology GTL Target Market 8.3.7 The Shell Project Cancellation 8.3.8 Stranded Gas and GTL 8.3.9 The Russian Flared Gas Opportunity 8.3.10 GTL From Coal-Bed Methane 9. Leading Companies in the Gas-to-Liquids Market 9.1 Leading Active GTL Market Participants and GTL Liquids Producers 9.1.1 Royal Dutch Shell 9.1.1.1 Analysis of Shell Fundamentals in Relation to the GTL Market 9.1.1.2 Competitors in the Gas-to-Liquids Market 9.1.1.3 Regional Emphasis / Focus 9.1.1.4 Future Outlook 9.1.2 PetroSA Company 9.1.2.1 Analysis of PetroSA Fundamentals in Relation to the GTL Market 9.1.2.2 Competitors in the Gas-to-Liquids Market 9.1.2.3 Regional Emphasis / Focus 9.1.2.4 Recent M&A Activity 9.1.2.5 Future Outlook 9.1.3 Sasol 9.1.3.1 Analysis of Sasol Fundamentals in Relation to the GTL Market 9.1.3.2 Competitors in the Gas-to-Liquids www.visiongain.com
  • 7. Contents 9.1.3.3 Regional Emphasis / Focus 9.1.3.4 Future Outlook 9.2 Other Companies in the Large-Scale GTL Market 9.2.1 BP plc 9.2.2 Chevron Corporation 9.2.3 ConocoPhillips Corporation 9.2.4 Davy Process Technology Ltd 9.2.5 EmberClear 9.2.6 Eni S.P.A 9.2.7 ExxonMobil Corporation 9.2.8 G2X Energy 9.2.9 General Electric Company (GE) 9.2.10 GTL.F1 9.2.11 Industrial Development and Renovation Organization of Iran (IDRO) 9.2.12 Marathon Oil Corporation (Marathon) 9.2.13 Narkangan Gas to Liquid International Company (Narkangan) 9.2.14 Petrobras 9.2.15 Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas) 9.2.16 Qatar Petroleum 9.2.17 Rosneft 9.2.18 Toyo Engineering Corporation 9.2.19 Uzbekneftegaz National Holding Company (Uzbekneftegaz) 9.3 Active Small-Scale Gas-to-Liquids Technology Providers 9.3.1 CompactGTL plc 9.3.2 Gas2 9.3.3 Infra Technology 9.3.4 Primus Green Energy 9.3.5 Sundrop Fuels 9.5.6 Velocys 10. Conclusions & Recommendations 10.1 Global Gas-to-Liquids Market Outlook 10.2 Key Findings 11. Glossary www.visiongain.com
  • 8. Contents List of Tables Table 2.1 Pilot/Semi-Commercial/Research GTL Facilities Table 3.1 Global GTL Market Drivers & Restraints Table 3.2 GTL and EU EN590 ULSD Diesel Characteristics (Density, kg/m3, Cetane Number, Poly-aromatics, max (volume %), Sulphur, max ppm) Table 3.3 Global GTL CAPEX Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 3.4 Global GTL Liquids Production Forecast 2014-2024 (bpd, AGR %, CAGR%) Table 3.5 Current Commercial GTL Facilities (Output, bpd, CAPEX, $m) Table 4.1 GTL CAPEX Submarket Forecasts 2014-2024 ($m, AGR) Table 4.2 Leading Large-Scale GTL Regional and National Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %) Table 4.3 Large-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity (bpd)) Table 4.4 Large-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) Table 4.5 Small-Scale GTL Facility CAPEX Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %, Cumulative) Table 4.6 Small-Scale GTL Market Drivers & Restraints Table 4.7 Small-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity, Est. Cost) Table 4.8 Small-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, $/bpd Capacity, Start Date, Status) Table 5.1 Leading Large-Scale GTL Regional and National Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %) Table 5.2 US Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 5.3 US GTL Market Drivers & Restraints Table 5.4 Large-Scale US GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity (bpd)) Table 5.5 Large-Scale US GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) Table 5.6 US Small-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity, Est. Cost) Table 5.7 US Small-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, $/bpd Capacity, Start Date, Status) Table 5.8 Qatari Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 5.9 Qatari GTL Market Drivers & Restraints Table 5.10 Large-Scale Qatari GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity (bpd)) www.visiongain.com
  • 9. Contents Table 5.11 Large-Scale Qatari GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) Table 5.12 Southern Africa Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 5.14 Likely Mozambique LNG Export Terminals (Companies Involved, Export Capacity, Estimated Cost ($bn), Status) Table 5.15 South Africa GTL Market Drivers & Restraints Table 5.16 Large-Scale Southern Africa GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity (bpd)) Table 5.17 Large-Scale Southern Africa GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) Table 5.18 Canadian Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %, Cumulative) Table 5.19 Canadian GTL Market Drivers & Restraints Table 5.20 Proposed Canadian LNG Export Terminals (Location, Operator/Owner, Capacity, Construction Cost Table 5.21 Proposed Natural Gas Pipelines for British Columbia (Pipeline Name, Lead Company, Distance, Capacity, Start Point, End Point) Table 5.22 Large-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity (bpd)) Table 5.23 Large-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) Table 5.24 Iranian Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 5.25 Iranian GTL Market Drivers & Restraints Table 5.26 Iranian Large-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity (bpd)) Table 5.27 Iranian Large-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) Table 5.28 Iranian Small-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity, Est. Cost) Table 5.29 Iranian Small-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, $/bpd Capacity, Start Date, Status) Table 5.30 Rest of the World Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 5.31 Large-Scale GTL Facilities in the RoW Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity (bpd)) Table 5.32 Large-Scale GTL Facilities in the RoW Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) Table 5.33 Australian GTL Market Drivers & Restraints Table 5.34 Nigeria’s Competitiveness and Corruption Indices www.visiongain.com
  • 10. Contents Table 5.35 Nigerian GTL Market Drivers & Restraints Table 5.36 Uzbekistan GTL Market Drivers & Restraints Table 7.1 PEST Analysis of the GTL Market 2014-2024 Table 9.1 Leading 3 Companies (Market Ranking, Total Revenue, GTL Liquids Sales, Market Share %) Table 9.2 Shell Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, GTL Liquids Sales, % Revenue From Market, Global Market Share %, HQ, Ticker, Contact, Website) Table 9.3 Shell GTL Facilities Planned & With Potential (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity (bpd)) Table 9.4 Shell GTL Facilities Planned & With Potential (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) Table 9.5 PetroSA Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, GTL Liquids Sales, % Revenue From Market, Global Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 9.6 PetroSA GTL Facilities With Potential (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity (bpd)) Table 9.7 PetroSA GTL Facilities With Potential (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) Table 9.8 PetroSA Divisions & Products (Division, Product, Details) Table 9.9 PetroSA Partnerships Table 9.10 Sasol Company Overview FY2013 (Total Revenue, GTL Liquids Sales, % Revenue From GTL Liquids, Global GTL Market Share, HQ, Ticker, Contact, Website) Table 9.11 GTL Relevant Sasol Contracts and Projects (Country, CAPEX in 2013, Details) Table 9.12 Sasol Divisions & Products (Division, Product, Details) Table 9.13 Sasol GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity (bpd)) Table 9.14 Sasol GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) www.visiongain.com
  • 11. Contents List of Figures Figure 2.1 Global GTL Market Structure Overview Figure 2.2 Flaring by Country and Worldwide (bcm), 2007-2012 Figure 2.3 Simplified GTL Process Route Figure 3.1 Oil to Gas Price Spread (WTI Spot : Henry Hub Spot Ratio), 1997-2013 Figure 3.2 Global Gas Price Comparisons, 1996-2012: Japan cif, UK NBP, US Henry Hub ($/MMBtu) Figure 3.3 ROI for GTL Given Variable Gas and Oil Price Conditions (Years until ROI, Gas Price, Oil Price) Figure 3.4 Net Profit for Large-Scale GTL Given Variable Gas and Oil Price Conditions (net Profit, Gas Price, Oil Price) Figure 3.5 Global GTL CAPEX Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%) Figure 3.6 Global GTL Liquids Production Forecast 2014-2024 (bpd, AGR %) Figure 3.7 Global GTL Liquids Sales Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %) Figure 4.1 GTL CAPEX Submarket Forecasts 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%) Figure 4.2 GTL CAPEX Submarkets Share Forecast 2014 (%) Figure 4.3 GTL CAPEX Submarkets Share Forecast 2019 (%) Figure 4.4 GTL CAPEX Submarkets Share Forecast 2024 (%) Figure 4.5 GTL CAPEX Submarkets Market Share Change 2014-2024 (%) Figure 4.6 GTL CAPEX Submarkets Market CAGRs, 2014-2024, 2014-2019, 2019-2024 (%) Figure 4.7 Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %) Figure 4.8 Small-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%) Figure 4.9 Flaring by Country and Worldwide (bcm), 2007-2012 Figure 4.10 Bakken and Eagle Ford Formation Flaring Figure 5.1 Leading Large-Scale GTL Regional and National Market Forecasts 2014-2024 ($m) Figure 5.2 Leading Large-Scale GTL Regional and National Market Forecasts 2014-2024 ($m) Figure 5.3 Leading Regional and National GTL Markets Share Forecast 2014 (%) Figure 5.4 Leading Regional and National GTL Markets Share Forecast 2019 (%) Figure 5.5 Leading Regional and National GTL Markets Share Forecast 2024 (%) Figure 5.6 Leading Regional and National GTL Market Share Change Figure 5.7 Cumulative CAPEX for Each Leading Regional/National GTL Market, 2014-2024 ($m, %) Figure 5.8 US Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%) Figure 5.9 US Large-Scale GTL Market Share Forecast 2014, 2019 and 2024 (% Share) Figure 5.10 US Motor Gasoline, Jet Fuel and Distillate Fuel (Diesel) Consumption Forecast, 2012-2015 Figure 5.11 US Average Fuel Economy Standards for New Vehicles Purchased in the US (Forecast Based on Historic Trend 2007-2012), 2007-2017 (MPG) Figure 5.12 US Licensed Drivers as a Percentage of Age-Group Population, 1983 vs. 2008 Figure 5.13 US LNG Export Terminals Currently Proposed (Name, Location, Sponsor) www.visiongain.com Eagle Ford
  • 12. Contents Figure 5.14 Qatari Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%) Figure 5.15 Qatari Large-Scale GTL Market Share Forecast 2014, 2019 and 2024 (% Share) Figure 5.16 North Field, Qatar Figure 5.17 Qatari Natural Gas Exports, Consumption and Production, 2008-2012 (bcfd) Figure 5.18 Qatari Oil Exports, Consumption and Production, 2008-2012 (1000s bpd) Figure 5.19 Southern Africa Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%) Figure 5.20 Southern Africa Large-Scale GTL Market Share Forecast 2014, 2019 and 2024 (% Share) Figure 5.21 Estimated Natural Gas Reserves in US, Canada, Australia, Tanzania and Mozambique (tcf) Figure 5.22 Petroleum Consumption South Africa & Mozambique, 2000-2012 (Thousand bpd) Figure 5.23 Canadian Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%) Figure 5.24 Canadian Large-Scale GTL Market Share Forecast 2014, 2019 and 2024 (% Share) Figure 5.25 WCS vs. AECO Ratio (WCS 1 : x AECO), 2010-2013 Figure 5.26 Iranian Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%) Figure 5.27 Iranian Large-Scale GTL Market Share Forecast 2014, 2019 and 2024 (% Share) Figure 5.28 Rest of the World Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%) Figure 5.29 Rest of the World Large-Scale GTL Market Share Forecast 2014, 2019 and 2024 (% Share) Figure 5.30 Australian Oil Production vs. Petroleum Consumption 2000-2012 (Thousand bpd) Figure 5.31 Central Asian Gas Pipelines Figure 6.1 Barriers to Entry vs. Market Size 2014 vs. CAGR% ($m, CAGR%) Figure 9.1 Leading 3 Companies in the GTL Market, Market Share by GTL Liquids Sales 2013 (GTL Liquids Sales $m, Market Share %) www.visiongain.com
  • 13. Contents Companies Mentioned in this Report ABN Amro Advantica Ltd AK Natural Gas to Liquids (AKNGTL) Anadarko Apache Arrow Energy Axens Baard Energy Barca LNG Bayer Technology Services BBHP Billiton BC LNG Export Cooperative LLC BCG Projectos Bechtel BG Group Botswana Oil BP BPRL British Gas Cairn India Calumet Speciality Product Partners Cambridge Energy (CE) Central Petroleum Cheniere Chevron Chevron Australia Chevron Canada Chevron Nigeria Ltd (CNL) Chevron Phillips Chemical Company Citroen Cohydro Sarl CompactGTL ConocoPhillips Cove Energy Davy Process Technology www.visiongain.com
  • 14. Contents Dominion Dow Chemical Company Drake Oil EmberClear Encana Energy Industrial Engineering & Design Co ENH ENI EOS LNG Euroil Excelerate ExxonMobil Fateh Sanata Kimia (FSK) Flour Forest Oil Franklin Mining Freeport LNG Fugro Robertson G2X Energy Gas2 Gasfin Development Gasnor AS Gazprom Gazprom Neft Gazprom VNIIGAS Gazprombank GE Energy General Electric Company Gigamethanal BV GTL Bolivia GTL.F1 Gulf Coast LNG Export Gulf LNG Liquefaction Haisla Haldor Topsoe Hess Corporation www.visiongain.com
  • 15. Contents Hillcrest Resources IFP Energies Nouvelles Incitec Indian Oil Infra Technology Ivanhoe Japan Oil, Gas and Metals Corporation (JOGMEC) Japex Jindal Steel Johnson Matthey Jordan Cove LNG Juniper GTL Kawasaki Heavy Industries Korea Gas Corporation Korea National Oil Company Kupec Lanzatech Linc Energy LNG Partners LLC Lurgi LyondellBasell Magnolia LNG Marathon Oil Corporation Marcellus GTL MDC Capital Mercedes Benz Merichem Mitsubishi Corporation Mitsui MODEC, Inc Narkangan GTL International Company National Iranian Oil Company (NOIC) National Petrochemical Company (NPC) Nerd Gas Company Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Nippon GTL www.visiongain.com
  • 16. Contents OAO Novatech Oltin Yo’l Oregon LNG Oxford Catalysts Group (including Velocys) Pacific GTL Pacific Power Partners Pangea LNG PDVSA PEMEX Pertamina Petrobras PetroChina Petrofac PetroMoc Petronas PetroSA Petrotrin (Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago) Peugeot Pieridae Energy Canada Ltd Pinto Energy Planck Trading PriceWaterhouseCoopers Primus Green Energy Progress Energy PTT Thailand Qatar International Petroleum Marketing Company Ltd. (Taweeq) Qatar Petroleum REEMA International Rentech Repsol Rosneft Sabine Pass Liquefaction Sabre Oil and Gas Holdings Santos Sarv Oil and Gas Sasol www.visiongain.com
  • 17. Contents Sasol Canada Sasol Chevron Sasol Synfuels International (Pty) Limited SBM Offshore Sempra SGC Energia Shell Shell Canada Sibur Sicor Inc Sinopec SK Engineering Sonatrach Southern LNG Southern Union Spectra Energy Statoil Sumitomo Precision Products Sundrop Fuels Synergy Technologies, Inc Synfuels International Syntroleum Corporation Talisman Energy Technip Texaco Toyo Engineering Corporation Transcanada Tyson Foods Uzbekneftegaz Velocys Ventech Engineers International Venture Global Waller LNG Services Westlake Chemical World GTL World GTL Trinidad Limited www.visiongain.com
  • 18. Contents Yakutgazprom YPFB Government Agencies and Other Organisations Mentioned in This Report Boko Haram CIS – Commonwealth of Independent States CSIRO – Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation EIA – Energy Information Administration EU – European Union FERC – Federal Energy Regulation Commission Geoscience Australia Human Rights Watch Industrial Development and Renovation Organisation of Iran (IDRO) MEND – Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta MIT – Massachusetts Institute of Technology NDV – Niger Delta Vigilante NOAA – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) OPEC – Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Nations Paul Scherrer Institut Russian Academy of Sciences SAPIA – South African Petroleum Industry Association Transparency International UN – United Nations University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute University of St. Andrews US Department of Energy US Energy Information Agency World Bank World Economic Forum www.visiongain.com
  • 19. Gas to Liquids (GTL) Market Forecast 2014-2024: What Are The Future Prospects for Companies in this Major XTL Segment? 5.5 Iranian GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 Tables 5.24 and Figures 5.26 and 5.27 display the size and forecast of the Large-Scale Iranian Gas-to-Liquids market over the next ten years. Table 5.24 Iranian Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) 2013 2014 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2014-24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 340.0 340.0 340.0 340.0 1,108.0 1,108.0 1,108.0 4,684.0 0.0 CAPEX ($m) AGR (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 225.9 0.0 0.0 21.8 CAGR (%) 2018-2024 Source: Visiongain 2014 Figure 5.26 Iranian Large-Scale GTL Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%) 1,200 250% 1,000 200% 150% AGR (%) CAPEX ($m) 800 600 100% 400 50% 200 0% 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Year Source: Visiongain 2014 www.visiongain.com Page 136
  • 20. Gas to Liquids (GTL) Market Forecast 2014-2024: What Are The Future Prospects for Companies in this Major XTL Segment? Table 5.27 Iranian Large-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Est. Cost, $/bpd Capacity, Earliest Start Date, Status) Name Main Sponsor Shiraz GTL Narkangan GTL 15 GTL Permits Various Iranian Companies Est. Cost ($m) $/bpd Earliest Status Capacity Start Date 850 68,000 2019 No information since 2012. Sanctions dependent. Fundamentals very good. 10,200 68,000 2020 15 Permits Awarded circa 2011. Need technology exchange - sanctions dependent Abbasabad IDRO 1,000 100,000 2020 MOU 2012: Scale Up 1000 bpd Pilot Plant (Timeframe Unknown) - IDRO/Unknown Private Partner 1,000 100,000 2020 MOU 2012 (Timeframe Unknown) South Pars Shell / NPC 4,000 53,333 - Sasol / NPC - - - Statoil / NIOC - - Source: Visiongain 2014 Table 5.28 Iranian Small-Scale GTL Facilities Under Construction, Planned, With Potential, Presently Cancelled (Name, Main Sponsor, Location, Type, Capacity, Est. Cost) Name Main Sponsor Location Type Dehloran GTL (Two Mini Plants) Energy Industrial Engineering & Design Co Iran Unknown Capacity (bpd) 1,238 Est. Cost ($m) 124 Source: Visiongain 2014 www.visiongain.com Page 142
  • 21. Gas to Liquids (GTL) Market Forecast 2014-2024: What Are The Future Prospects for Companies in this Major XTL Segment? 8. Expert Opinion 8.1 Velocys Dr Neville Hargreaves is Business Development Director at Velocys. He previously spent 12 years working for Esso/Exxon in technical, commercial and management roles, and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry. Dr Hargreaves was interviewed by visiongain in January 2014, and visiongain would like to thank him for his insightful remarks. Velocys is a leading innovator in clean synthetic fuel production and a provider of smaller-scale GTL solutions. The Fischer-Tropsch (FT) technology marketed by the company can also be utilised for the production of hydrocarbon liquids from biomass (BTL). As of September 2013, Oxford Catalysts Group plc changed its name to Velocys plc. 8.1.1 The Vision of Velocys Visiongain: How would you describe the Velocys vision? Neville Hargreaves: Our vision is to make smaller scale gas-to-liquids a reality. Velocys is pioneering a new industry: the distributed production of fuels and chemicals through smaller-scale GTL. We aim to move GTL from a practice that is only done in Qatar and a few other special places to something that can occur in any place where a reasonable amount of gas is present. Our modular systems enable this, and are based on technology that is much smaller than that of conventional facilities. Our efforts are all about building modular GTL plants that cost effectively monetise smaller resources of gas – and other feedstocks – than has been the case with conventional GTL facilities. Visiongain: What are your aims for the next 24 months? Neville Hargreaves: Getting our first commercial plants committed and built. We believe that a project commitment is very close – a matter of months. We have shown that we are in a strong and advantageous position in the market because we have been selected for a number of projects (four announced by the end of 2013), but the fact remains that no-one has yet committed to a smaller-scale GTL project – with us or anybody else. We, and the whole industry, are striving to change that situation, and what we have in the pipeline gives us confidence that Velocys will be there very soon. www.visiongain.com Page 167

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