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Anti Cancer Drugs Industry and Market: Therapies, R&D and Forecasts 2014-2024

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For an Executive Summary of this report please contact ediz.ibrahim@visiongain.com (+44 (0)20 7549 9976) or refer to our website …

For an Executive Summary of this report please contact ediz.ibrahim@visiongain.com (+44 (0)20 7549 9976) or refer to our website https://www.visiongain.com/Report/1301/Anti-Cancer-Drugs-Industry-and-Market-Therapies-R-D-and-Forecasts-2014-2024

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  • 1. Anti-Cancer Drugs Industry and Market: Therapies, R&D and Forecasts 2014-2024 ©notice This material is copyright by visiongain. It is against the law to reproduce any of this material without the prior written agreement of visiongain.You cannot photocopy, fax, download to database or duplicate in any other way any of the material contained in this report. Each purchase and single copy is for personal use only.
  • 2. www.visiongain.com Contents 1.1 Overview of the World Market for Cancer-Treating Drugs 1.2 Why You Should Read This Report 1.3 How This Report Delivers 1.4 Main Questions Answered by this Analysis 1.5 Who is this Study For? 1.6 Methods of Research and Analysis 1.7 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 1.8 Some Associated Reports 1.9 About Visiongain 2.1 The Physiology of Cancer – Causes and Effects 2.1.1 Uncontrolled Growth 2.1.2 Dedifferentiation 2.1.3 Invasiveness and Metastasis 2.1.4 Causes of Cancer 2.2 The Incidence and Prevalence of Cancer – Trends in the World 2.2.1 Incidence 2.2.2 Mortality 2.2.3 Survival – Improving Odds 2.2.3.1 The Developed World 2.2.3.2 The Developing World – More Must Be Done 2.3 Treating Tumours – How Can We Fight Back? 2.3.1 Chemotherapy – The Traditional Treatment 2.3.2 Hormone Therapies 1. Report Overview 2. Introduction to Cancer Treatments
  • 3. www.visiongain.com Contents 2.3.3 Immunotherapy – A Magic Bullet? 2.3.3.1 Monoclonal Antibodies (mAbs) 2.3.3.2 Cancer Vaccines 2.3.3.3 Non-Specific Immunotherapies 2.3.4 Targeted Therapies 2.3.5 Differentiating Agents 3.1 Global Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast, 2014-2024 3.2 The Domination of Immunotherapies in 2013 3.3 The Immunotherapy Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast, 2014-2024 – The Fastest Growing Segment 3.4 The Chemotherapy Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast, 2014-2024 3.5 The Targeted Therapy Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast, 2014-2024 – A Move towards Personalisation 3.6 The Hormone Therapy Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast, 2014-2024 4.1 Anti-Cancer Drugs – Leading Markets, 2013 4.2 The US Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2014-2024 – Continued Leadership or Terminal Decline? 4.2.1 The US Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2013 4.2.2 The US Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast – A Matured Approach 4.2.3 The Regulatory Effect on the US Market 4.3 The Japanese Anti-Cancer Drug Market, 2014-2024 – Still Steady? 3. The World Anti-Cancer Drug Market, 2014-2024 4. Leading National Markets, 2014-2024
  • 4. www.visiongain.com Contents 4.4 The EU5 Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2014-2024 – Rivalling the US in Importance 4.5 The BRIC Countries Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2014-2024 – Awakening Sleeping Giants? 4.5.1 The Brazilian Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2014-2024 – Expansion of the Middle Class 4.5.2 The Russian Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2014-2024 - Rising Cancer Rates Stimulate Revenue Increases 4.5.3 The Indian Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2014-2024 – Lucrative Opportunity for Growth 4.5.4 The Chinese Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2014-2024 – Can it Fulfil its Potential? 5.1 Avastin (Roche) – The World Market Leader 5.1.1 Avastin Revenue, 2010-2013 – Mixed Growth 5.1.2 Avastin Revenue Forecast – Still No.1? 5.2 Herceptin (Roche) – The Looming Impact of Patent Expiry 5.2.1 Herceptin Revenue, 2010-2013 – Still Rising 5.2.2 Herceptin Revenue Forecast – Generic Erosion 5.3 Rituxan/MabThera (Roche) – Slowing Growth 5.3.1 Rituxan Revenue, 2010-2013 – Still Strong 5.3.2 Rituxan Revenue Forecast – Heading for a Decline 5.4 Gleevec/Glivec (Novartis) – The Maturation of a Blockbuster 5.4.1 Glivec Revenue, 2010-2013 5.4.2 Glivec Revenue Forecast – What Does the Future Hold? 5.5 Revlimid (Celgene) – Celgene’s Top Revenue Generator 5.5.1 Revlimid Revenue, 2010-2013 – Still on the Rise 5.5.2 Revlimid Revenue Forecast – A Long Term Leader? 5. The Top 25 Anti-Cancer Drugs, 2014-2024
  • 5. www.visiongain.com Contents 5.6 Alimta (Eli Lilly) – A Slow Decline? 5.6.1 Alimta Revenue, 2010-2013 5.6.2 Alimta Revenue Forecast– Revenue Erosion Looming 5.7 Velcade (J&J/Takeda) – Rising Steadily 5.7.1 Velcade Revenue, 2010-2013 5.7.2 Velcade Revenue Forecast – A Dependable Sales Generator 5.8 Erbitux (Bristol-Myers Squibb/ Merck KGaA) – Facing Tough Competition 5.8.1 Erbitux Revenue, 2010-2013 5.8.2 Erbitux Revenue Forecast – No More Growth? 5.9 Gardasil (Merck & Co) – The Rise of Preventions 5.9.1 Gardasil Revenue, 2010-2013 5.9.2 Gardasil Revenue Forecast – Still Growing Strong 5.10 Zytiga (Johnson & Johnson) 5.10.1 Zytiga Revenue, 2010-2013 – The Rise of a New Drug 5.10.2 Zytiga Revenue Forecast 5.11 Xeloda (Roche) – Patent Exclusivity and the Future 5.11.1 Xeloda Revenue, 2010-2013 – The Impact of Combination Therapies 5.11.2 Xeloda Revenue Forecast – A Slippery Slope 5.12 Tarceva (Roche) 5.12.1 Tarceva Revenue, 2010-2013 – No Clear Pattern 5.12.2 Tarceva Revenue Forecast 5.13 Afinitor (Novartis) – A Targeted Approach 5.13.1 Afinitor Revenue, 2010-2013 – Growing Fast 5.13.2 Afinitor Revenue Forecast
  • 6. www.visiongain.com Contents 5.14 Sprycel (Bristol-Myers Squibb) 5.14.1 Sprycel Revenue, 2010-2013 5.14.2 Sprycel Revenue Forecast – How Long Will the Growth Last? 5.15 Tasigna (Novartis) – Moving on Up 5.15.1 Tasigna Revenue, 2010-2013 5.15.2 Tasigna Revenue Forecast – A Multi-Billion Dollar Product? 5.16 Sutent (Pfizer) 5.16.1 Sutent Revenue, 2010-2013 5.16.2 Sutent Revenue Forecast – No More Growth 5.17 Nexavar (Bayer/Onyx Pharmaceuticals) 5.17.1 Nexavar Revenue, 2010-2013 – The Effect of Regional Sales 5.17.2 Nexavar Revenue Forecast – A Promising Start to the Decade 5.18 Xgeva (Amgen) 5.18.1 Xgeva Revenue, 2010-2013 – The Impact of New Indications 5.18.2 Xgeva Revenue Forecast 5.19 Zoladex (AstraZeneca) 5.19.1 Zoladex Revenue, 2010-2013 5.19.2 Zoladex Revenue Forecast 5.20 Yervoy (Bristol-Myers Squibb) – Starting to Make its Mark 5.20.1 Yervoy Revenue, 2011-2013 5.20.2 Yervoy Revenue Forecast – Will it Keep Growing? 5.21 Vidaza (Celgene) – What Growth Potential? 5.21.1 Vidaza Revenue, 2010-2013 5.21.2 Vidaza Revenue Forecast – Generic Impact
  • 7. www.visiongain.com Contents 5.22 Treanda (Teva Pharmaceuticals) 5.22.1 Treanda Revenue, 2010-2013 5.22.2 Treanda Revenue Forecast – Stalled Growth? 5.23 Temodar/Temodal (Merck & Co.) – Falling off the Cliff? 5.23.1 Temodar/Temodal Revenue, 2010-2013 5.23.2 Temodar/Temodal Revenue Forecast 5.24 Faslodex (AstraZeneca) – The Counterpart to Zoladex 5.24.1 Faslodex Revenue, 2010-2013 5.24.2 Faslodex Revenue Forecast 5.25 Abraxane (Celgene) – Beginning the Climb 5.25.1 Abraxane Revenue, 2012-2013 5.25.2 Abraxane Revenue Forecast 6.1 Approved Treatments in 2014 6.1.1 Beleodaq (Topotarget/Spectrum Pharmaceuticals) 6.1.1.1 Market Potential 6.1.2 Zykadia (Novartis) – The Rise of Kinase Inhibitors 6.1.2.1 Market Potential 6.1.3 Cyramza (Eli Lilly) – A Breakthrough for Gastric Cancer? 6.1.3.1 Market Potential 6.2 Approved Treatments in 2013 6.2.1 Imbruvica (Pharmacyclics) 6.2.1.1 Market Potential 6. Drugs Approved in 2013-2014: Potential Future Blockbusters
  • 8. www.visiongain.com Contents 6.2.2 Gazyva (Roche) – The First Breakthrough Therapy 6.2.2.1 Market Potential 6.2.3 Gilotrif (Boehringer Ingelheim) 6.2.3.1 Market Potential 6.2.4 Mekinist (GSK) – A First-in-Class Treatment for Melanoma 6.2.4.1 Market Potential 6.2.5 Tafinlar (GSK) – A Partner for Mekinist 6.2.5.1 Market Potential 6.2.6 Kadycla (Roche) – A Future Star 6.2.6.1 Market Potential – A Replacement for Herceptin? 6.2.7 Pomalyst (Celgene) 6.2.7.1 Market Potential 6.3 Drugs Approved in 2012 – How They’re Doing Now 6.3.1 Afinitor (Novartis) – Already a Blockbuster 6.3.1.1 Market Potential 6.3.2 Bosulif (Pfizer) – How Will it Perform? 6.3.2.1 Market Potential 6.3.3 Cometriq (Exelixis) 6.3.3.1 Market Potential 6.3.4 Erivedge (Roche) – Will It Become a Blockbuster? 6.3.4.1 Market Potential 6.3.5 Iclusig (Ariad) 6.3.5.1 Market Potential – Wider Uses?
  • 9. www.visiongain.com Contents 6.3.6 Inlyta (Pfizer) – A Good Second-Line Option? 6.3.6.1 Market Potential 6.3.7 Kyprolis (Amgen) 6.3.7.1 Market Potential 6.3.8 Marqibo (Talon) – Will Its Revenue Grow? 6.3.8.1 Market Potential 6.3.9 Perjeta (Roche) – Joining the HER2 Family 6.3.9.1 Market Potential 6.3.10 Stivarga (Bayer) 6.3.10.1 Market Potential 6.3.11 Synribo (Teva) 6.3.11.1 Market Potential 6.3.12 Votrient (GSK) 6.3.12.1 Market Potential 6.3.13 Xtandi (Medivation) – Quickly Becoming a Popular Choice 6.3.13.1 Market Potential 6.3.14 Zaltrap (Sanofi) 6.3.14.1 Market Potential 7.1 Anti-Cancer Drug Market Dominated by Seven Companies 7.2 Roche – Leader of the Pack 7. Leading Companies for Cancer Treatments, 2014
  • 10. www.visiongain.com Contents 7.2.1 Oncology Pipeline – Investment in the Future 7.2.2 Roche’s Future Direction in Cancer Treatment 7.3 Novartis – Closing the Gap on Roche 7.3.1 Oncology R&D Pipeline – What’s the Potential? 7.3.2 Future Directions for Novartis 7.4 Celgene – A Pressing Need to Diversify? 7.4.1Celgene’s Oncology Pipeline – Safeguarding the Future 7.4.2 Future Directions for Celgene 7.5 Eli Lilly – Reliant on Alimta 7.5.1 Oncology R&D Pipeline – What Potential Exists? 7.5.2 The Future Direction of Eli Lilly 7.6 AstraZeneca – Climbing up the Ladder 7.6.1 Oncology Pipeline – Showing Promise 7.6.2 The Future Direction of AstraZeneca 7.7 Bristol-Myers Squibb 7.7.1 Oncology R&D Pipeline – What Potential Exists? 7.7.2 Future Direction of BMS 7.8 Merck & Co. – Prominent in Vaccines 7.8.1 Oncology Pipeline – Greater Focus on Cancer 7.8.2 The Future Direction of Merck 8.1 Breast Cancer Drugs Under Development 8.1.1 Neratinib (Puma Pharmaceuticals) 8. R&D Pipelines for Cancer Treatment
  • 11. www.visiongain.com Contents 8.1.2 Palbociclib (Pfizer) 8.1.3 Veliparib (Abbvie) 8.1.4 NeuVax (Galena Biopharma) 8.1.5 Entinostat (Syndax) 8.2 Prostate Cancer Drugs Under Development 8.2.1 OMD-201 (Orion) 8.2.2 Tasquinimod (Active Biotech) 8.2.3 EMD-525797 (EMD Serono) 8.2.4 PROSTVAC (Bavarian Nordic) 8.3 Lung Cancer Drugs Under Development 8.3.1 Tecemotide (Merck Serono) 8.3.2 RG7446 (Roche) 8.3.3 Nivolumab (Bristol-Myers Squibb) 8.3.4 MEDI4736 (AstraZeneca) 8.3.5 TG4010 (Transgene) 8.4 Colorectal Cancer Drugs Under Development 8.4.1 Imprime PGG (Biothera) 8.4.2 Xilonix (Xbiotech) 8.4.3 TAS-102 (Taiho Pharmaceuticals) 8.4.4 HA-Irinotecan (Alchemia) 8.4.5 Aptocine (Light Sciences Oncology) 8.5 Cervical Cancer Drugs Under Development
  • 12. www.visiongain.com Contents 8.5.1 ADXS-HPV (Advaxis) 8.5.2 V503 (Merck & Co.) 8.5.3 VGX-3100 (Inovio Pharmaceuticals) 8.6 Stomach Cancer Drugs Under Development 8.6.1 Rilotumumab (Amgen) 8.6.2 Onartuzumab (Roche) 8.6.3 Apatinib (Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine) 8.7 Liver Cancer Drugs Under Development 8.7.1 Tivantinib (ArQule) 8.7.2 Lenvatinib (Eisai Co.) 8.7.3 Pexa-Vec9 (Jennerex Biotherapeutics) 8.7.4 Brivanib (Bristol-Myers Squibb) 8.7.5 Muparfostat (Progen Pharmaceuticals) 8.8 Ovarian Cancer Drugs Under Development 8.8.1 Farletuzumab (Eisai) 8.8.2 Niraparib (TESARO) 8.8.3 Trebananib (Amgen) 8.8.4 SG2000 (Spirogen) 8.9 Bladder Cancer Drugs Under Development 8.9.1 Vesimune (Telormedix) 8.9.2 HS-410 (Heat Biologics) 8.9.3 EOquin (Allergan) 8.10 Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma Drugs Under Development
  • 13. www.visiongain.com Contents 8.10.1 Idelalisib (Gilead) 8.10.2 IPI-145 (Infinity Pharmaceuticals) 8.10.3 ABT-199 (AbbVie) 8.10.4 GS-9973 (Gilead) 8.11 Leukaemia Drugs Under Development 8.11.1 Dinaciclib (Merck) 8.11.2 Sapacitabine (Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals) 8.11.3 Vosaroxin (Sunesis) 8.12 Kidney Cancer Drugs Under Development 8.12.1 IMA901 (Immatics) 8.12.2 ASG-003 (Argos Therapeutics) 8.12.3 Nilovumab (Bristol-Myers Squibb) 8.12.4 TRC105 (Tracon Pharmaceuticals) 8.13 Pancreatic Cancer Drugs Under Development 8.13.1 Algenpantucel-L (NewLink Genetics) 8.13.2 MM-398 (Merrimack) 8.13.3 MK-0752 (Merck & Co.) 9.1 SWOT Analysis of the Anti-Cancer Drugs Market 9.1.1 Strengths of the Market 9.1.1.1 The Rising Incidence of Cancer 9. Qualitative Analysis of the Anti-Cancer Drug Market 2014-2024
  • 14. www.visiongain.com Contents 9.1.1.2 Ample Treatment Options Available 9.1.2 Weaknesses 9.1.2.1 The Challenges of Drug Development 9.1.2.2 The Complex Nature of Cancer 9.1.3 Opportunities in the Anti-Cancer Drugs Market 9.1.3.1 The Advancement of Research 9.1.3.2 A Shift Towards Personalisation 9.1.4 Threats Facing the Anti-Cancer Drugs Market 9.1.4.1 The Threat of Regulation 9.2 STEP Analysis of the Anti-Cancer Drugs Market 9.2.1 Social Factors: The Cost of Living Longer 9.2.2 Technological Developments: Making the Market Move Forward 9.2.3 Economic Pressure: Treatment’s Hefty Price Tag 9.2.4 Political Issues: Governmental Involvement in Treatment 10.1 Interview with Mr. Thomas Felzmann, CEO, Activartis Biotech GmbH, Vienna, Austria 10.1.1 Activartis Biotech and AV0113 10.2 Interview with Professor Philip Rudland, Chair of Biochemistry at the University of Liverpool 10.2.1 Identifying Markers in Cancer Cells 10.2.2 The Importance of Protein Expression 10.2.3. The Advancement of Diagnostics 10.2.4 The Future of the Anti-Cancer Drug Market 10.3 Interview with Dr. Sidong Huang, Assistant Professor of Biochemistry at McGill University 10.3.1 On His Research Interests and their Utility in Anti-Cancer Drug Development 10. Research Interviews
  • 15. www.visiongain.com Contents 10.3.2 On the Evaluation of New Targets for Anti-Cancer Drugs 10.3.3 On Drug Resistance and Targeted Therapies 10.3.4 On the Future of Traditional Chemotherapy 10.3.5 On Future Developments in the Anti-Cancer Field 10.4 Interview with Dr. Neil Butt, Director, Antitope Ltd. 10.4.1 On Immunogenicity in Therapeutic Proteins 10.4.2 On Antitope’s Technologies to Assess and Reduce Immunogenicity 10.4.3 On an Alternative Way of Reducing Immunogenicity 10.4.4 On Biosimilars 10.4.5 On Future Developments in that Field 11.1 The Top 25 Dr 11.1 The Top 25 Drugs in the Cancer Treatment Market 11.2 Immunotherapies – The Future of the Market 11.3 Patent Expiries and the Impact of Biosimilars 11.4 The US – Still the Largest National Market 11.5 China and Brazil Will Lead the Emerging Markets 11.6 Treatment – It’s Personal 11.7 The Anti-Cancer Drug Pipeline Remains Strong 11.8 Concluding Remarks 11. Conclusions of the Study
  • 16. www.visiongain.com Page 137 Anti-Cancer Drugs Industry and Market: Therapies, R&D and Forecasts 2014-2024 Sprycel faces competition from a number of big name anti-cancer drugs over next ten years. This includes Glivec and Tasigna, which had combined revenue $5.96bn in 2013. Sprycel was also reportedly deemed as too costly by NICE in the UK for the treatment of CML. Table 5.33 Sprycel Revenue Forecast ($bn), Annual Growth (%) and CAGR (%), 2014- 2024 Column1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Revenue ($bn) 1.28 1.59 1.87 2.12 2.33 2.58 2.76 2.60 2.21 1.61 1.13 0.85 Annual Growth (%) 26 24 18 13 10 11 7 -6 -15 -27 -30 -25 CAGR (%) 15 -17 Figure 5.44 Sprycel Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2014-2024 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 SprycelRevenue($bn) Year Source: visiongain 2014 Source: visiongain 2014. CAGR from 2013-2018, and 2018-2024
  • 17. www.visiongain.com Page 192 Anti-Cancer Drugs Industry and Market: Therapies, R&D and Forecasts 2014-2024 Figure 6.14 Iclusig: Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2014-2024 6.3.6 Inlyta (Pfizer) – A Good Second-Line Option? Inlyta (axitinib) is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor, which has been shown to inhibit VEGFR1, 2 and 3. These receptors cause angiogenesis which results in tumour growth, therefore inhibition should prevent the tumour from increasing in size. It was approved in January 2012, for the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma after the failure of a prior treatment. 6.3.6.1 Market Potential Since its launch, Inlyta has performed fairly well in the market, making $0.32bn in its first full year. It is currently approved in 59 countries, including some crucial emerging markets. Visiongain expects Inlyta to continue to grow over the first half of the next 10 years, reaching $1.04bn in 2020 (Figure 6.15). Inlyta loses its patent protection in the US in 2020 and visiongain predicts that this will cause a decline in revenue towards the end of the forecasted period, leading to revenue dropping to $0.54bn by 2024 (Table 6.15). Inlyta is currently being tested in phase II clinical trials for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. If this indication is approved it may increase revenue, visiongain believes. 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 IclusigRevenue($bn) Year Source: visiongain 2014
  • 18. www.visiongain.com Page 258 Anti-Cancer Drugs Industry and Market: Therapies, R&D and Forecasts 2014-2024 visiongain: Your recent work has included identifying C-FABP and PPARγ as prognostic factors to predict outcomes of prostate cancer patients. Do you think this research is affecting the anti-cancer drug market, if so how? PR: I would not say that C-FABP and PPARγ currently play a role in the market or that there are effective drugs against them. In earlier publications of our work, the C-FABP effect was linked to VEGF production and blood vessel growth. What we understand is that anti-VEGF drugs are available. They are currently being used to treat breast cancer and other different cancers, and we assume that VEGF inhibitors will also be used in prostate cancer. 10.2.2 The Importance of Protein Expression visiongain: How important is identifying protein expression when trying to understand how cancers grow? PR: The important process in learning about cancer development is to look at the proteins and differential protein expression. mRNA changes are only really important as long as you can show that the corresponding protein also changes, since the proteins are the functional units. There is a caveat, though. Around 5% of genome expression in terms of mRNA protein can change. This means that you need an assay to filter the proteins that have a functional role away from all those other proteins and mRNA’s that are, in essence, passenger changes. visiongain: Please could you explain a bit more about what you mean by passenger changes? PR: Upwards of 5% of the expressing of the entire genome can change in cancer cells due to their relatively unstable genome. You have around 50,000 genes, so 5% of the total number of genes is 2,500. That is a considerable number of gene expression changes in the form of mRNA protein changes. We have shown, along with others, that the major changes that occur in common cancers is their ability to change expression because of genomic instability. If you have 2,500 changes and we know that there are only six or seven changes that are important in terms of epidemiological studies, then it is a bit like a needle in a haystack. You can look at differential changes but you need to know which are important in disease progression. 10.2.3 The Advancement of Diagnostics visiongain: Identifying unusual expression of proteins could be used to develop new diagnostics tests. How do you think advances in this field will affect the future of the cancer drugs market?