Profiting from Uncertainty :
Strategies for Succeeding No Matter
What the Future Brings by Robert E.
Gunther
Best Strategy Book I Have Ever Read
What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-
knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But
uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H.
Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these
opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and
implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a
systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning,
options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for
profiting from ambiguity. Building on his experience with more than one
hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to
manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how
major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking

methodology to prepare for an un-certain future and profit from it. In this
first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the
reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft
nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement
them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments
through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and
practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science,
organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the
most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating
uncertainty. One need only follow the news to see the risks of being
unprepared for change. And yet the rewards for actively pursuing new
opportunities are greater than ever. More than any other capability, skill in
seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to
success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that.
Personal Review: Profiting from Uncertainty : Strategies for
Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings by Robert E.
Gunther
As a consultant, I have been working with companies in all kinds of
industries on strategy issues for 25 years. During that time, I have been a
prolific reader of books on the strategy process, as well as of books on
strategies being used by leading companies. I am not sure how I missed
this book when it was published seven years ago, but I am grateful that I
finally learned about it as a result of a chance encounter with author Paul
Schoemaker.
As I write this review, companies in all manner of industries face as much
uncertainty as likely has ever existed in modern business times. Many a
CEO has told me that they are struggling not only with problems of their
company but also with unbelievable uncertainty as to both the overall
economy and as to their industry. Ripple effects from other industries are
causing all kinds of problems. Uncertainty reigns supreme.
Schoemaker writes about an approach to strategy development and
planning that embraces the uncertainty, and he goes even further to
encourage management to profit from uncertainty. I love the way his
holistic approach weaves together strategy development best practices,
decision theory, organizational behavior, and dynamic monitoring. Brilliant!
When written in the year following the 9/11 catastrophe, uncertainty was
an important factor for management to consider and the author gives
insightful examples of companies doing exactly that. But, in today's global
meltdown, planning for uncertainty becomes an absolute necessity.
In a sense, this was a book written ahead of its time. But, you can expect
to see more and more books emulating this gem over the next twelve to
eighteen months. No need to wait for those books, this book is the pace
setter.

The notion of planning for uncertainty is intellectually stimulating.
Fortunately, Schoemaker writes very clearly with none of the pomposity so
common to writing by many of the academically gifted. Concepts are well
explained and thoughtfully illustrated. The organization of the material is
first rate, and the editing a pleasure compared to the norm in today's
business books.
This is one of the finest business books I have ever read. And, it certainly
is a critical prescription for every executive struggling to deal with so much
uncertainty, right in the middle of a downturn that I believe will turn out to
be as severe as anything since the Great Depression.
I strongly recommend the book...and the implementation of the concepts
set out by this brilliant strategist.
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