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VERONIKA RABLPrincipal, Vision & ResultsMember, IEEE-PESVice Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy CommitteeWashington, DCPraha, 2...
2Topics IEEE/IEEE-USA Energy Policy Recommendations Background Transportation Power Supply Electric Grid Discussion
3IEEE World’s largest professional association more than 395,000 members in more than 160countries; 45 percent from outs...
4IEEE-USA IEEE-USA advances the public good and promotesthe careers and public policy interests of morethan 215,000 engin...
5Energy Policy Committee Made up mostly of power systems engineeringprofessionals and academics from across the US Exper...
6Energy Situation Energy underlies three converging challengesfacing the United States Economic Prosperity National Sec...
7All Eyes on Electricity Generation Electric utility sector accounts for about a third ofU.S. greenhouse gas emissions O...
8Electricity – Engine of ProgressSource: Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010), October 2011Electrification• Elect...
9Recommendations Pursuing energy efficiency and demand response http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/EnergyEfficiency...
10Recommendations Above all:BUILDFLEXIBILITY AND ADAPTABILITYINTO ALL ELEMENTS OFOUR ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
11Separated by Common Language? billion = 109 vs 1012 in Europe 1012 = trillion Quad (quadrillion) = 1015 Btu MBtu cou...
12Transportation National Security Risk Almost entirely oil 2/3 of entire petroleum use Reduce Emissions Cannot captu...
13Transforming Transportation byDiversifying Energy Sources Electrifying Transportation: Plug-In and HybridElectric Vehic...
14TRANSPORTATIONAbout 30% of GHG EmissionsSource: Conti, J., U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transportation Sector, A...
15Where the Energy GoesSource: EPA, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (Feb. 2, 2012)GASOLINEENGINEEFFICIENCYTank-to...
16Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel Well to refinery = .95 Refining to gasoline...
17Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel Efficiency of 11% to 13% Coal – Electricity...
18Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel Efficiency of 11% to 13% Coal – Electricity...
19Electricity to the Rescue!VEHICLE EFFICIENCY WELL-TO-WHEELS Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel Efficiency of 11% ...
20Greenhouse Gases ReducedSource: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007GHG EMIS...
21GHG ReducedSource: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007ASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg...
22Achilles’ Heel?Achilles at Achilleion, Corfu (detail); Sculptor Ernst Herter, 1884COST
23Battery Costs DecliningSource: Department of Energy FY 2012 Congressional Budget Request, DOE/CF-0059, Vol. 3, February ...
24
25Greening the Electric PowerSupply Expanding the Use of Renewable ElectricGeneration Revitalizing Nuclear Power Generat...
26Generation by Fuel 2010Issues by Fuel SourceCoalNatural gasRenewablesNuclear
27COAL 30% installed capacity Till recently about ½ of electricity generation One of our most abundant resources
28Regulatory Pressures Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for new andexisting plants Coal Combustion Residuals Regulation ...
29Ag(e)ing FleetAbout 50% of all capacity and 73% of coal-fired capacitywas 30 years or older at the end of 2010
30~50 GW of Coal-fired GenerationExpected to Retire by 2020Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) and http://www.flickr.com/...
31NATURAL GAS Less expensive than just about any other form ofgeneration EIA estimate: 60% of capacity additions between...
32CCGT Competes with Baseload CoalSource: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-s...
33How Long Before Prices Go Up?Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/...
34RENEWABLESSource: Annual Energy Outlook 2012, DOE/EIA-0383(2012), June 2012
3550 GW Installed Wind CapacitySource: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/...
36The Future of Tax Credits forSolar & Wind?Source: RenewablesBiz Daily, Sept. 12, 2012
37State Incentives Account for About½ of capacity added 2010-11Source: DSRI (Database for State Incentives for Renewables ...
38Where Will Electricity Come From? Coal in decline for the foreseeable future High risk (carbon regulation uncertain) ...
39NUCLEAR Traditionally the lowest cost electricityBUT Public acceptance issues High initial cost a significant barrier
40Nuclear Fleet Aging Toohttp://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=228&t=21 The average age of U.S. commercial reactors is...
41License RenewalsSource: EnergyBiz, Sept. 12, 2012
42Two Plants Licensed Early 2012…More to ComeSource: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 2012 (http://www.nrc.gov/re...
43Major Recommendations/ Nuclear Comprehensive spent nuclear fuel managementprogram that would close the fuel cycle andde...
44Infrastructure
45U.S. Network Current U.S. electric grid is a network of 10,000 power plants 170,000 miles of high-voltage (>230 kV) t...
46The GridSource: NERC, Understanding the Grid
47Electricity Industry Restructuring Many players Not necessarilyconducive tocooperation oroptimal systemdesign Markete...
48The Parties to the System Different utility types: IOU, Municipal, rural Vertically integrated, restructured, holdingc...
49Electricity TransactionsSource: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012
50NERC Regions & BalancingAuthoritiesSource: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)
51ISO/RTO* MapSources: NERC and 2012 National Electric Transmission Congestion Study presentation, Aug. 2012About twothird...
52PJM RTOSource: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012
53Physical InfrastructureTransmission ConstraintsSource: Source: U.S. DOE, National Electric Transmission Congestion Study...
54Transmission Congestion CostsSource: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Sept. 26, 2011, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail....
55Conditional ConstraintsSource: U.S. DOE, National Electric Transmission Congestion Study, 2009
56Major Infrastructure Issues Increasingly complex and competitive bulk powermarket is adding stress to the grid Grid co...
57Markets vs. Electricity Market equilibrium on top of Kirchhoffs circuitlaws topology Need for new specialty: Market d...
58Building a Stronger and SmarterElectrical Energy Infrastructure Transforming the Network into a Smart Grid Expanding t...
59Smart Grid Recommendations Standards Splinteredjurisdictions Real-time data
60http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/ElectricInfrastructureJuly2010.pdf
61Energy Policy RecommendationsPROVIDE A LONG-TERM COMMITMENT TO ENERGYRESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND DEMONSTRATION
62http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energypolicy0211.pdf
63For More Information www.ieeeusa.org http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energypolicy0211.pdf www.ieeeusa.org/com...
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Rabl IEEE-CZ presentation Prague 2012-09-24

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Transcript of "Rabl IEEE-CZ presentation Prague 2012-09-24"

  1. 1. VERONIKA RABLPrincipal, Vision & ResultsMember, IEEE-PESVice Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy CommitteeWashington, DCPraha, 24. září 2012
  2. 2. 2Topics IEEE/IEEE-USA Energy Policy Recommendations Background Transportation Power Supply Electric Grid Discussion
  3. 3. 3IEEE World’s largest professional association more than 395,000 members in more than 160countries; 45 percent from outside the US Leading developer of voluntary, consensus-basedinternational standards involving todays leading-edge electrotechnologies portfolio of more than 900 active standards and morethan 400 standards in development
  4. 4. 4IEEE-USA IEEE-USA advances the public good and promotesthe careers and public policy interests of morethan 215,000 engineers, scientists and alliedprofessionals who are U.S. members of the IEEE. “Building Careers and Shaping Public Policy”
  5. 5. 5Energy Policy Committee Made up mostly of power systems engineeringprofessionals and academics from across the US Expertise in areas such as: Power generation, transmission and distribution Alternative energy resources Nuclear power Power system reliability Smart Grid Efficiency Electric transportation
  6. 6. 6Energy Situation Energy underlies three converging challengesfacing the United States Economic Prosperity National Security Environmental Protection Electricity can play a key role, but, substantial pressures to respond to environmental concerns deal with uncertainties in both local and global energy supplies accommodate the rapid evolution of new generation sources andtechnology options available to its users
  7. 7. 7All Eyes on Electricity Generation Electric utility sector accounts for about a third ofU.S. greenhouse gas emissions Over 40% of electricity generated by coal
  8. 8. 8Electricity – Engine of ProgressSource: Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010), October 2011Electrification• Electricity use isincreasing in bothabsolute andRELATIVE termsIncreasing energyproductivity• It takes less-and-lessenergy to fuel theeconomy0%10%20%30%40%50%024681012141618201950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010%primaryenergyusedforelectricityThousandBtu/chained(2005)dollarsEnergyUse/$GDPElectricityFraction
  9. 9. 9Recommendations Pursuing energy efficiency and demand response http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/EnergyEfficiency1110.pdf Transforming transportation by diversifyingenergy sources Greening the electric power supply Building a stronger and smarter electrical energyinfrastructure Cyber and critical power, and energyinfrastructure security
  10. 10. 10Recommendations Above all:BUILDFLEXIBILITY AND ADAPTABILITYINTO ALL ELEMENTS OFOUR ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
  11. 11. 11Separated by Common Language? billion = 109 vs 1012 in Europe 1012 = trillion Quad (quadrillion) = 1015 Btu MBtu could be 1 thousand Btu MMBtu is 1 million Btu Even the definition of efficiency is not consistent! Fuel energy content HHV vs LHV Efficiencies in Europe are 5 – 10% higher (or as high as18% for H2 fuel cell)
  12. 12. 12Transportation National Security Risk Almost entirely oil 2/3 of entire petroleum use Reduce Emissions Cannot capture dispersed emissions
  13. 13. 13Transforming Transportation byDiversifying Energy Sources Electrifying Transportation: Plug-In and HybridElectric Vehicles Developing and Using Alternative TransportationFuels
  14. 14. 14TRANSPORTATIONAbout 30% of GHG EmissionsSource: Conti, J., U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transportation Sector, Asilomar presentation, July 2009
  15. 15. 15Where the Energy GoesSource: EPA, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (Feb. 2, 2012)GASOLINEENGINEEFFICIENCYTank-to-Wheels14 –16%
  16. 16. 16Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel Well to refinery = .95 Refining to gasoline = .85 Gasoline delivery = .97 Tank to wheels = .14 – .16 Efficiency of 11% to 13%
  17. 17. 17Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel Efficiency of 11% to 13% Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel Delivered to power plant = .95 Power generation = .35 - .45 Transmission and distribution = .90 - .93 Plug to battery = .80 - .90 Battery to wheels = .80 - .90 Efficiency of 19% to 32%
  18. 18. 18Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel Efficiency of 11% to 13% Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel Efficiency of 19% to 32% Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel Efficiency of 27% to 42%
  19. 19. 19Electricity to the Rescue!VEHICLE EFFICIENCY WELL-TO-WHEELS Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel Efficiency of 11% to 13% Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel Efficiency of 19% to 32% Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel Efficiency of 27% to 42%
  20. 20. 20Greenhouse Gases ReducedSource: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007GHG EMISSIONS FOR PHEV-20 CHARGED FROM SPECIFIC POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGYASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg for conventional, 37.9 mpg for hybrids, and 49% miles driven on electricity for PHEV
  21. 21. 21GHG ReducedSource: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007ASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg for conventional, 50 mpg for hybrids, and 49% miles driven on electricity for PHEVGHG EMISSIONS FOR PHEV-20 CHARGED FROM SPECIFIC POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGY
  22. 22. 22Achilles’ Heel?Achilles at Achilleion, Corfu (detail); Sculptor Ernst Herter, 1884COST
  23. 23. 23Battery Costs DecliningSource: Department of Energy FY 2012 Congressional Budget Request, DOE/CF-0059, Vol. 3, February 2011Ford, May 2012
  24. 24. 24
  25. 25. 25Greening the Electric PowerSupply Expanding the Use of Renewable ElectricGeneration Revitalizing Nuclear Power Generation Reducing Carbon Emissions from Fossil PowerPlants
  26. 26. 26Generation by Fuel 2010Issues by Fuel SourceCoalNatural gasRenewablesNuclear
  27. 27. 27COAL 30% installed capacity Till recently about ½ of electricity generation One of our most abundant resources
  28. 28. 28Regulatory Pressures Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for new andexisting plants Coal Combustion Residuals Regulation (coal ashdisposal) Performance standards for emissions of carbondioxide (new and major retrofit)Virtually every coal plant mustRETROFIT, RETIRE OR REPOWER
  29. 29. 29Ag(e)ing FleetAbout 50% of all capacity and 73% of coal-fired capacitywas 30 years or older at the end of 2010
  30. 30. 30~50 GW of Coal-fired GenerationExpected to Retire by 2020Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) and http://www.flickr.com/photos/usgao/7801651396/sizes/o/in/photostream/
  31. 31. 31NATURAL GAS Less expensive than just about any other form ofgeneration EIA estimate: 60% of capacity additions betweennow and 2035 May slow momentum or displace renewables New power system issues Fuel supply Balancing requirements
  32. 32. 32CCGT Competes with Baseload CoalSource: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)
  33. 33. 33How Long Before Prices Go Up?Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)
  34. 34. 34RENEWABLESSource: Annual Energy Outlook 2012, DOE/EIA-0383(2012), June 2012
  35. 35. 3550 GW Installed Wind CapacitySource: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)
  36. 36. 36The Future of Tax Credits forSolar & Wind?Source: RenewablesBiz Daily, Sept. 12, 2012
  37. 37. 37State Incentives Account for About½ of capacity added 2010-11Source: DSRI (Database for State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency)/ US Partnership for Renewable FinanceRenewable Portfolio Standard Policies..www.dsireusa.org / September 2012.29 states,+Washington DC and 2territories,haveRenewable PortfolioStandards(8 states and 2 territories haverenewable portfolio goals).
  38. 38. 38Where Will Electricity Come From? Coal in decline for the foreseeable future High risk (carbon regulation uncertain) No CCS scheme has yet been piloted, let alone demonstratedat scale Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions Renewables will grow even in absence of federalcarbon policy And the rest? Nuclear? What will it take?
  39. 39. 39NUCLEAR Traditionally the lowest cost electricityBUT Public acceptance issues High initial cost a significant barrier
  40. 40. 40Nuclear Fleet Aging Toohttp://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=228&t=21 The average age of U.S. commercial reactors isabout 32 years The oldest entered commercial service in 1969 The last newly built reactor entered service in 1996 Tennessee Valley Authority is completing an on-siteaddition planned to begin operation in 2013 U.S. commercial nuclear reactors are licensed tooperate for 40 years by the U.S. NuclearRegulatory Commission (NRC).
  41. 41. 41License RenewalsSource: EnergyBiz, Sept. 12, 2012
  42. 42. 42Two Plants Licensed Early 2012…More to ComeSource: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 2012 (http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/new-reactor-map.html)Location of Projected New Nuclear Power Reactors
  43. 43. 43Major Recommendations/ Nuclear Comprehensive spent nuclear fuel managementprogram that would close the fuel cycle anddevelop a disposal facility as mandated by theNuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 Advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing technologiesto reduce proliferation concerns, and to reducethe volume and lifetime of wastes
  44. 44. 44Infrastructure
  45. 45. 45U.S. Network Current U.S. electric grid is a network of 10,000 power plants 170,000 miles of high-voltage (>230 kV) transmissionlines Millions of miles of lower-voltage distribution lines More than 15,000 substations
  46. 46. 46The GridSource: NERC, Understanding the Grid
  47. 47. 47Electricity Industry Restructuring Many players Not necessarilyconducive tocooperation oroptimal systemdesign Marketefficiency vs.systemefficiencyCompetitionLocalRegulationGenerationTransmissionDistributionFederalRegulationSCSC MOMOMEME TOTOSOSOSC - Security CoordinatorMO - Market OperatorSO - System OperatorTO - Transmission OwnerSC - Security CoordinatorMO - Market OperatorSO - System OperatorTO - Transmission OwnerRetail salesCompetition?CompetitionLocalRegulationGenerationTransmissionDistributionFederalRegulationRC MOBA TOTOPSC - Security CoordinatorMO - Market OperatorSO - System OperatorTO - Transmission OwnerRC-MO - Market OperatorTOP -- Transmission OwnerRetail salesCompetition?RC– Reliability CoordinatorMO – Market OperatorTOP – TransmissionOperatorBA – Balancing AuthorityTO – TransmissionOwner
  48. 48. 48The Parties to the System Different utility types: IOU, Municipal, rural Vertically integrated, restructured, holdingcompanies Independent (merchant) generators Demand response providers (aggregators) Transmission owners State regulators, NERC (North American ElectricReliability Corporation), FERC (Federal EnergyRegulatory Commission)
  49. 49. 49Electricity TransactionsSource: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012
  50. 50. 50NERC Regions & BalancingAuthoritiesSource: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)
  51. 51. 51ISO/RTO* MapSources: NERC and 2012 National Electric Transmission Congestion Study presentation, Aug. 2012About twothirds ofthecountryhaveorganizedmarkets*) ISO – Independent System Operator, RTO – Regional Transmission Organization
  52. 52. 52PJM RTOSource: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012
  53. 53. 53Physical InfrastructureTransmission ConstraintsSource: Source: U.S. DOE, National Electric Transmission Congestion Study, 2009
  54. 54. 54Transmission Congestion CostsSource: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Sept. 26, 2011, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3230Transmission congestion drives power price division between upstateand downstate New York
  55. 55. 55Conditional ConstraintsSource: U.S. DOE, National Electric Transmission Congestion Study, 2009
  56. 56. 56Major Infrastructure Issues Increasingly complex and competitive bulk powermarket is adding stress to the grid Grid congestion and higher transmission losses Higher rates for electricity Market design and grid expansion must maintainadequate levels of grid reliability Reinforcing the grid and deploying advancedtechnologies critical for the nation
  57. 57. 57Markets vs. Electricity Market equilibrium on top of Kirchhoffs circuitlaws topology Need for new specialty: Market design w/electrical engineering foundation
  58. 58. 58Building a Stronger and SmarterElectrical Energy Infrastructure Transforming the Network into a Smart Grid Expanding the Transmission System Accommodating New Types of Generation andNew Loads Variable generation Local generation, PV, microgrids Plug-in vehicles
  59. 59. 59Smart Grid Recommendations Standards Splinteredjurisdictions Real-time data
  60. 60. 60http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/ElectricInfrastructureJuly2010.pdf
  61. 61. 61Energy Policy RecommendationsPROVIDE A LONG-TERM COMMITMENT TO ENERGYRESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND DEMONSTRATION
  62. 62. 62http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energypolicy0211.pdf
  63. 63. 63For More Information www.ieeeusa.org http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energypolicy0211.pdf www.ieeeusa.org/communications/ebooks VRabl@Vision-Results.com
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