Mike maples ventureshift 7 17-13
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Mike Maples of Floodgate at Venture shift 2013

Mike Maples of Floodgate at Venture shift 2013

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Mike maples ventureshift 7 17-13 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Mike Maples, Jr (@m2jr) July 8, 2013
  • 2. Thunder Lizards
  • 3. Why aren’t more people trying to build Thunderlizards? Why aren’t more seed funds focused on finding them?
  • 4. Exponential Entrepreneurship
  • 5. Part 1: Two Basic Laws…
  • 6. Law #1: Moore’s Law Computing Performance doubles at the same price every 18 months
  • 7. Moore’s Law: What It Means • Animates the “magic” of the tech industry • Asymmetric weapon of the startup
  • 8. Moore’s Law and Exponential Companies PC Client/ Server Internet Social Networking PC Client/S erver Internet Social Networking
  • 9. Law #2: The Power Law The biggest outcome is bigger than all of the others combined, and so on…
  • 10. The Power Law in Practice • 10,000-20,000 companies will be funded by Angels • 1,000-2,000 will get VC funding • 50-100 “won’t suck” (exit > $50M) • 10 +/- 5 will be special (exit > $500M) • The best company in a given year will usually be more valuable than all other 9,999 companies combined
  • 11. The Power Law: What It Means Outcomes do not follow a “normal” distribution …they are governed by exceptionalism •Maples Angel •Maples Fund I •Y Combinator •Exits in a given year
  • 12. Merging the laws Can I use the asymmetric power of Moore’s Law to create one one of the ten best companies of the year?
  • 13. Part 2: Exponential reasoning vs linear reasoning
  • 14. We are hardwired to think linearly • Linear thinking is intuitive • Exponential thinking is not
  • 15. Exponential Reasoning E=mc2 Intuitive Reasoning F=ma Intuitive, tangible Counterintuitive, abstract Observable Experiment Thought Experiment
  • 16. Exponential Entrepreneurs and First Principles • Reasoning by analogy – Copy what others do, but with slight variations – Characteristic of linear thinking – Gets us through the day – Start with a tangible idea • Reasoning by first principles – Boil things down to their fundamental truths and reason up from there – Used to figure out things that are counter-intuitive, like quantum mechanics – Start with a thought experiment – Key is to solicit negative feedback relative to the first principles
  • 17. Reasoning by Analogy: Example 1 “Case method” of analysis (aka “pattern matching”)
  • 18. Reasoning by Analogy: Example 2 Lean Startup / Customer Development “Religion”
  • 19. Reasoning by Analogy: Example 3 Companies by analogy (ex “we are Instagram for Google Glass.”)
  • 20. First Principles Reasoning: Bill Gates Computers have always been expensive …but someday they will be cheap …which means software will become the valuable resource
  • 21. Diagnostic Test #1 “Most people believe in X. But the truth is NOT X.”
  • 22. First Principles Reasoning: Evan Williams Millions of people write blogs Micro-blogging is super easy What if tens of millions create micro-blogs?
  • 23. Diagnostic Test #2 What is valuable? What is nobody else doing? What can I do? What valuable company is nobody building?
  • 24. First Principles Reasoning: Elon Musk Cost of rocket is huge Cost of fuel is small (.3% of rocket) 100x improvement in cost of space travel if you could reuse the rocket
  • 25. Diagnostic Test #3 What is your big “secret?”
  • 26. Recommended Viewing http://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_mind_behind_tesla_spacex_solarcity.html
  • 27. Part 3: Exponential outcomes require a fundamental advantage
  • 28. The Traditional View of Capitalism • Capitalism is a system of perfect competition
  • 29. The Broader View of Capitalism • “True” capitalism and competition are opposities
  • 30. “Gerry’s Law” of Capitalism
  • 31. “Gerry’s Law” of Capitalism “Don’t be the best. Be the only.”
  • 32. Fundamental Advantages • Perfect competition is not perfect • Can it transcend competition if it works? • At least 10x better in some area • Distribution strategy often flows directly from the advantage
  • 33. www.marchforinnovation.com #iMarch
  • 34. THANKS!