The New Forex Fundamentals: Effectively Scanning Global Markets - Vantage FX

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Are you scanning the markets in a manner that is getting you ahead of the crowd? Are you reading sentiment correctly? Still doing things the old way? Abe Cofnas’ New Forex Fundamentals seminar module showed our clients a unique way to detect global sentiment to reshape their forex trading strategies.

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The New Forex Fundamentals: Effectively Scanning Global Markets - Vantage FX

  1. 1. MODULE 1 MONDAY JULY 22 6PM-9PM THE NEW FOREX FUNDAMENTALS PRESENTATION BY ABE COFNAS Effectively Scanning Global Markets
  2. 2. WHAT YOU WILL LEARN IN MODULE 1 ¡  FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS POST ‘08 IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER ¡  FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS IN THE AGE OF THE INTERNET IS EASIER THAN EVER ¡  FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS IS A KEY TO FINDING WEEKLY AND DAILY DIRECTION ¡  HOW TO TRADE ECONOMIC CALENDARs!
  3. 3. LET’S LOOK AT THE TRADE DECISION PROCESS
  4. 4. PART 1: WHAT IS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS It is more than economic data.
  5. 5. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS VERSUS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ¡  Fundamental Analysis focuses on what causes prices to move. ¡  Technical Analysis focuses on the patterns of the prices.
  6. 6. GLOBAL FEARS AND HOPES
  7. 7. FEAR AND HOPE AND CHINA
  8. 8. FUNDAMENTAL SCAN
  9. 9. SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ¡  The new form of Fundamental Analysis is Sentiment Analysis. Sentiment Analysis focuses on the market as an emotion engine and medium for crowd or herding behavior.
  10. 10. FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS CREATE EXPECATIONS ¡  The Key fundamental factors that shape price action are: GDP Growth Inflation Sovereign Debt Fiscal Stability The fundamental forces are expectations of these factors.
  11. 11. SURPRISE IN FUNDAMENTALS MOVES MARKETS! ¡  When markets are surprised about economic data releases- they move. ¡  It is critical to know when economic data comes out and this is done through an economic calendar. ¡  DON’T IGNORE THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
  12. 12. LOCATE THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR (www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php)
  13. 13. STRATEGIES AND TACTICS FOR TRADING DATA RELEASES PART 2: TRADING ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES OR: EVENT RISK TRADING!
  14. 14. WHAT IS AN EVENT RISK? ¡  Event Risks are Economic Data Releases providing key economic information about almost all countries. They can be found on any economic calendar.
  15. 15. The Most Famous Economic Data Release is the Non Farm Payroll Report ( NFP ) ¡  First Friday of Every Month ¡  They Move the US markets
  16. 16. FOMC STATEMENTS IS ANOTHER BIG EVENT RISK TO TRADE THAT MOVES CURRENCIES Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision.
  17. 17. TRADING STRATEGIES FOR EVENT RISKS ¡  1) ANTICIPATE EVENT RELEASE AND CHOOSE A DIRECTION ¡  2) PLAY EITHER DIRECTION WITH TWO CURRENCY PAIRS ¡  3) WAIT FOR RELEASE AND JOIN DIRECTION ¡  4) WAIT FOR FIRST REACTION TO BE OVER AND PLAY COUNTER MOVE
  18. 18. PERCENTAGE MOVES IN RESPONSE TO NFP REPORT AND FOMC STATEMENTS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Frequency Bin EURUSD Weekly Change In Response to NFP Reports
  19. 19. USDCHF and FOMC 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -3.60% -3.40% -3.20% -3.00% -2.80% -2.60% -2.40% -2.20% -2.00% -1.80% -1.60% -1.40% -1.20% -1.00% -0.80% -0.60% -0.40% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 1.80% 2.00% 2.20% 2.40% 2.60% 2.80% 3.00% 3.20% 3.40% 3.60% More Frequency Bin USDCHF Weekly Change
  20. 20. S&P 500 and FOMC 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Frequency Bin S&P 500 Weekly Change in Response to FOMC Statements
  21. 21. STRATEGY 1: PLACE AN @ MARKET BUY OR SELL ORDER BEFORE DATA RELEASE !
  22. 22. STRATEGY 1: KEY ADVANTAGES AND DISTADVANTAGES KEY ADVANTAGE: COULD WIN BIG! KEY DISADVANTAGE: COULD LOSE BIG! KEY CHALLENGE: WHERE DO YOU PUT STOPS OR LIMITS?
  23. 23. STRATEGY 2 : PLAY EITHER DIRECTION WITH TWO DIFFERENT UNDERLYING MARKETS!
  24. 24. STRATEGY 2: KEY ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES ¡  KEY ADVANTAGE IS THAT YOU ARE WITH THE RIGHT DIRECTION ¡  KEY DISADVANTAGE IS THAT IT MAY BE A SMALL MOVE AND COST TO GET OUT MORE THAN YOU GAIN
  25. 25. STRATEGY 3: WAIT FOR DATA RELEASE AND THEN JOIN DIRECTION!
  26. 26. STRATEGY 3: ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES KEY ADVANTAGE – YOU ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MOVE KEY DISTADVANTAGE- IT COULD REVERSE QUICKLY KEY CHALLENGE: HARD TO GET OUT WITHOUT SLIPPAGE
  27. 27. STRATEGY 4: WAIT FOR DATA RELEASE AND END OF INITIAL MOVE - TRADE COUNTER - REACTION
  28. 28. STRATEGY 4 : KEY ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES ¡  KEY ADVANTAGE: THE TRADE DECISION IS MORE CONFIRMED ¡  KEY ADVANTAGE: FIBONACCI LEVELS ARE OFTEN IN PLAY ¡  KEY ADVANTAGE: ALLOWS FOR MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES ¡  KEY DISADVANTAGE- RETRACEMENT MAY NOT HAPPEN
  29. 29. EXPECTATIONS IS THE NEW FUNDAMENTALS ¡  Detecting Expectations positions the trader to be on the side of surprise. ¡  The Challenge is to detect Expectations ¡  The most important source of expectations is: CENTRAL BANKS
  30. 30. PART 3: FINDING THE DOMINANT FUNDAMENTAL DIRECTION ¡  OPEN THE DOOR TO THE CENTRAL BANK STATEMENTS!
  31. 31. CENTRAL BANKS ¡  Are the Enzymes or Catalyst of Price Direction ¡  Their key role is to shape interest rates and thereby impact economic growth. ¡  They inject “fear” and “ hope” regarding stimulating economies
  32. 32. A DROP OF BERNANKE, DRAGHI, CARNEY, IN A BASE OF HESITATION!
  33. 33. CENTRAL BANKS SURPRISE ¡  Bank of England surprise statement sends markets up and sterling tumbling (July 4) ¡  http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jul/04/ bank-england-hold-rates-qe-mark-carney
  34. 34. WORLD CLOUD ANALYTICS
  35. 35. KEY FUNDAMENTAL DETECTION TOOL: WORD CLOUDS ¡  WORD CLOUDS HELP DETECT SHAPE OF EXPECTATIONS OF CENTRAL BANKS ¡  PROVIDE EARLY SENSE OF CHANGE IN SENTIMENT
  36. 36. EXAMPLE OF WORD CLOUDs
  37. 37. SWISS FRANC INTERVENTION PREDICTED BY WORD CLOUD ON AUGUST 31
  38. 38. $RESULT: 100% RETURN BY SEPT 6
  39. 39. MATCH THE EXPECTATIONS ¡  US ¡  ENGLAND ¡  AUSTRALIA ¡  CHINA ¡  JAPAN ¡  EUROZONE A= MORE QE B= TAPERING C= TIGHTENING
  40. 40. CONSTUCT YOUR OWN WORD CLOUD! ¡  Let’s Construct our own word clouds. Step 1: Go to www.wordle.net Step 2: Locate Text Step 3: Create Cloud Step 4: Interpret Cloud
  41. 41. BANK OF ENGLAND STATEMENT ¡  Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billion ¡  “The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion. ¡  “Since the May Inflation Report, market interest rates have risen sharply internationally and asset prices have been volatile. In the United Kingdom, there have been further signs that a recovery is in train, although it remains weak by historical standards and a degree of slack is expected to persist for some time. Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 2.7% in May and is set to rise further in the near term. Further out, inflation should fall back towards the 2% target as external price pressures fade and a revival in productivity growth curbs domestic cost pressures. ¡  “At its meeting today, the Committee noted that the incoming data over the past couple of months had been broadly consistent with the central outlook for output growth and inflation contained in the May Report. The significant upward movement in market interest rates would, however, weigh on that outlook; in the Committee’s view, the implied rise in the expected future path of Bank Rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy. ¡  “The latest remit letter to the MPC from the Chancellor had requested that the Committee provide an assessment, alongside its August Inflation Report, of the case for adopting some form of forward guidance, including the possible use of intermediate thresholds. This analysis would have an important bearing on the Committee’s policy discussions in August.
  42. 42. EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK STATEMENT ¡  "Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Incoming information has confirmed our previous assessment. Underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. In keeping with this picture, monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics remain subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2 percent over the medium term. At the same time, recent confidence indicators based on survey data have shown some further improvement from low levels. Our monetary policy stance is geared towards maintaining the degree of monetary accommodation warranted by the outlook for price stability and promoting stable money market conditions. It thereby provides support to a recovery in economic activity later in the year and in 2014. Looking ahead, our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on the overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics. In the period ahead, we will monitor all incoming information on economic and monetary developments and assess any impact on the outlook for price stability. ¡  "Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Real GDP declined by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013, following a contraction of 0.6 percent in the last quarter of 2012. At the same time, labour market conditions remain weak. Recent developments in cyclical indicators, particularly those based on survey data, indicate some further improvement from low levels. Looking ahead to later in the year and to 2014, euro area export growth should benefit from a gradual recovery in global demand, while domestic demand should be supported by the accommodative monetary policy stance as well as the recent gains in real income owing to generally lower inflation. Furthermore, notwithstanding recent developments, the overall improvements in financial markets seen since last summer should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation. This being said, the remaining necessary balance sheet adjustments in the public and private sectors will continue to weigh on economic activity. Overall, euro area economic activity should stabilise and recover in the course of the year, albeit at a subdued pace. ¡  "The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. The recent tightening of global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties may have the potential to negatively affect economic conditions. Other downside risks include the possibility of weaker than expected domestic and global demand and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries. ¡  "As stated in previous months, annual inflation rates are expected to be subject to some volatility throughout the year owing particularly to base effects. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 1.6 percent in June 2013, up from 1.4 percent in May. This increase reflected an upward base effect relating to energy price developments twelve months earlier. However, underlying price pressures are expected to remain subdued over the medium term, reflecting the broad-based weakness in aggregate demand and the modest pace of the recovery. Medium-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with price stability. ¡  "The risks to the outlook for price developments are expected to be still broadly balanced over the medium term, with upside risks relating to stronger than expected increases in administered prices and indirect taxes, as well as higher commodity prices, and downside risks stemming from weaker than expected economic activity. ¡  "Turning to the monetary analysis, recent data confirm the subdued monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics. Annual growth in broad money (M3) decreased in May to 2.9 percent, from 3.2 percent in April. Moreover, annual growth in M1 decreased to 8.4 percent in May, from 8.7 percent in April. The annual rate of change of loans to the private sector remained negative. While the annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) remained at 0.3 percent in May, broadly unchanged since the turn of the year, the annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) weakened further to -2.1 percent in May, from -1.9 percent in April. As in April, strong monthly net redemptions in May were concentrated in short-term loans, possibly reflecting reduced demand for working capital against the background of weak order books in early spring. More generally, weak loan dynamics continue to reflect primarily the current stage of the business cycle, heightened credit risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets. ¡  "Since the summer of 2012 substantial progress has been made in improving the funding situation of banks and, in particular, in strengthening the domestic deposit base in a number of stressed countries. This has contributed to reducing reliance on Eurosystem funding, as reflected in the ongoing repayments of the three-year longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs). In order to ensure an adequate transmission of monetary policy to the financing conditions in euro area countries, it is essential that the fragmentation of euro area credit markets continues to decline further and that the resilience of banks is strengthened where needed. Further decisive steps for establishing a Banking Union will help to accomplish this objective. In particular, the future Single Supervisory Mechanism and a Single Resolution Mechanism are crucial elements for moving towards re-integrating the banking system and therefore require swift implementation. ¡  "To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability over the medium term. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture. ¡  "With regard to other economic policies, the Governing Council notes the initiatives taken by the European Council of 27-28 June 2013 in the areas of youth unemployment, investment and financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the European Council's endorsement of the country-specific recommendations of the 2013 European semester. The Governing Council stresses that implementation of these recommendations is essential to contribute to a sustainable recovery in the euro area. Moreover, the new European governance framework for fiscal and economic policies should be applied in a steadfast manner and much more determined efforts should be pursued to carry forward structural reforms to foster growth and employment. In this respect, the Governing Council deems it particularly important to target competitiveness and adjustment capacities in labour and product markets. Finally, the Governing Council welcomes the setting-out of a number of steps towards the completion of the Banking Union as moves in the right direction, but also urges that they be implemented swiftly
  43. 43. WORD CLOUD OF ECB STATEMENT
  44. 44. QUANTITATIVE EASING ¡  Quantitative easing in the main fundamental force moving markets today there three main categories for central bank expectation US fed is purchasing $85 billion a month in treasuries and mortgage backed securities 1- increasing quantitative easing 2- tapering of quantitative easing
  45. 45. SENTIMENT WAVES IN RESPONSE TO CENTRAL BANK STATEMENTS ¡  MARKET MOVEMENTS ARE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SENTIMENT WAVES REACTING TO FEAR AND HOPE EMOTIONS JUST LIKE A CHEMICAL REACTION. ¡  THE CHALLENGE OF THE FOREX TRADER IS TO DETECT AND RIDE THE DOMINANT SENTIMENT WAVE
  46. 46. FOMC ¡  http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/ fomccalendars.htm#18545
  47. 47. FOMC STATEMENT http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/ fomccalendars.htm#18545 ¡  Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. ¡  Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective. ¡  To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. ¡  The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives. ¡  To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
  48. 48. WORD CLOUD OF FOMC STATEMENT
  49. 49. NOW LET’S ANSWER THE QUESTION: WHAT IS THE FUNDAMENTAL DIRECTION OF THE FOLLOWING CURRENCIES ? ¡  Us Dollar: Stronger or Weaker? ¡  Yen: Stronger or Weaker? ¡  Aussie: Stronger or Weaker? ¡  Euro: Stronger or Weaker?
  50. 50. TEXT MINING AS FUNDAMENTAL LEADING INDICATOR! ¡  GOOGLE TRENDS HELPS DETECT CHANGES IN SENTIMENT ¡  THE CASE OF ABENOMICS
  51. 51. THE CASE OF “ABENOMICS”
  52. 52. ABENOMICS HAS MADE THE YEN THE BEST CURRENCY TO TRADE
  53. 53. PART 4: TRADING MARKET EMOTIONS CONSTRUCT A BALANCE OF FEARS CHECKLIST We are merely reminding ourselves that human decisions affecting the future, whether personal or political or economic, cannot depend on strict mathematical expectation, since the basis for making such calculations does not exist; and that it is our innate urge to activity which makes the wheels go round, our rational selves choosing between the alternatives as best we are able, calculating where we can, but often falling back for our motive on whim or sentiment or chance. —John Maynard Keynes (1964, 162–63
  54. 54. FEAR AND GREED CURVE
  55. 55. FUNDAMENTS OF MARKET EMOTIONS: BALANCE OF FEARS ¡  IS THE MARKET “RISK–ON” OR “RISK OFF?” ¡  HOW DO WE KNOW? ¡  HOW DO WE FIND OUT?
  56. 56. LOCATE HEAT MAP ¡  WWW.FINVIZ.COM What is hot? What is not?
  57. 57. CONTRARIAN THINKING: TRADE THE LEADERS AND LOSERS
  58. 58. BOND MARKET AS A VIGILANTE ¡  BOND MARKETS PROVIDE CLUES TO MARKET FEARS BY FORCING YIELDS HIGHER WHEN PERCEIVED RISKS ARE RISKING. ¡  LOWER YIELDS MEANS $$ ARE LOOKING FOR RISK NOT SAFETY
  59. 59. FEAR OF INFLATION? ¡  CENTRAL BANKS ARE PRINTING MONEY AS NEVER BEFORE. ¡  IS THERE FEAR OF INFLATION?
  60. 60. LATEST INFLATION CURVES: US
  61. 61. LATEST INFLATION CURVES: AUSTRALIA
  62. 62. GLOBAL COUNTRY SAFETY LEADER BOARD.
  63. 63. GREEK BONDS AND FEAR
  64. 64. GOVERNMENT BOND REFLECT FEAR
  65. 65. THE FEAR INDEX: VIX ¡  Fear in the market is mapped by the VIX index.
  66. 66. PART 5: CONTRARIAN THINKING ¡  DO WE FADE OR FOLLOW THE CROWD?
  67. 67. THE CROWD AS A SWARM PRICE ACTION AS CHEMISTRY ¡  Prices are moving in swarm like patterns. ¡  When is the Crowd of Trader right? ¡  When is the Crowd of Traders wrong? USDJPY CHEMICAL REACTION
  68. 68. MAXIMUM MISPRICING = MAXIMUM OPPORTUNITY ¡  At the beginning of each week, markets face maximum uncertainty and maximum mispricing. ¡  The result is a perfect opportunity for Contrarian Thinking
  69. 69. LETS CHOOSE SOME CONTRARIAN TRADES THIS WEEK
  70. 70. CONTRARIAN SIGNALS COME FROM THE MEDIA ¡  LET’S LOOK AT SOME EXAMPLES THAT ARE PREDICTIVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION
  71. 71. Contrarian Indicator on the EUROZONE July 16 2011 THE DAX PROCEEDS TO RISE TO NEW HIGHS OCT 1 2011 Dec 8 2012
  72. 72. DAX HITS NEW HIGHS AFTER DOOM AND GLOOM MEDIA
  73. 73. POLITICAL CONTRARIAN PREDICTIONS Mar 3 2012 WHO LEADS RUSSIA TODAY? PUTIN!
  74. 74. PART 6: BECOME A FUNDAMENTAL EXPERT WITH THE FINANCIAL TIMES ¡  The best tool to quickly become a Fundamental Scanner and Expert is the Financial Times. ¡  Let’s explore How By Reviewing FT Digital.
  75. 75. CONCLUSION ¡  Keep Track of Fundamentals – They come in Handy in shaping smarter Forex Trades.
  76. 76. FUNDAMENTAL TOOLS FOR TRADING ¡  FT.com ¡  Finviz.com
  77. 77. ABE COFNAS abecofnas@gmail.com skype: binarytrader1 Thank you

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