Presentation at the_annual_national_policy_dialogue_19-11-2009
<ul><li>The Annual National Policy Dialogue </li></ul><ul><li>19 November 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>POVERTY MONITORING GROUP </li></ul>
Pluses Minuses Relatively high growth Slow poverty reduction A fall in Unemployment Primarily in small informal business with low earnings and productivity. High underemployment Improved net secondary school enrolment, attendance and literacy (64% in 2001 to 66 % in 2007) Slight drop in net primary enrolment since 2007. Risk of many youth being left behind Continued drop in IMR & under-5 mortality Drop in coverage of DPT-Hb3 (93% in 2004 to 83% in 2007), Improvement in life expectancy (53 (m )& 56 (w)) High maternal mortality (births taking place at home remain high) Improved food self-sufficiency. Drop in malnutrition High prevalence of stunting Drop in HIV prevalence Downward trend in access to clean and safe water
<ul><li>TANZANIA’S RELATIVE STANDING IN HDI IN KEY AREAS </li></ul><ul><li>COMPARISON OF RELATIVE PROGRESS IN HDI </li></ul>
<ul><li>Little change in consumption levels since 2001 </li></ul><ul><li>Extremely low consumption levels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>98% of Tanzanians consume less than Tsh 30,000 (2001 prices) and Tsh 58,000 in 2007 prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>80% consume less than Tsh 20,000 (38,600 in 2007 prices) </li></ul></ul>
<ul><li>Caloric intake increased marginally since 2001 </li></ul><ul><li>25% of the population do not consume enough to carryout even light work </li></ul><ul><li>50% do not consume enough to carryout heavy work </li></ul>
<ul><li>Not a famine prone country. Food production can meet the demand (SSR=104%) </li></ul><ul><li>But several regions are food insecure: Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Lindi, Manyara, Mara, Mtwara, Shinyanga, Singida and Tabora (Rapid vulnerability survey (2008) </li></ul><ul><li>In total 20 districts have been identified as having food shortages in 2007/08, the lowest number since 2002/03 </li></ul>
Key issues Underlying factors Heavy reliance on agriculture for livelihood 75% of the population depends on agriculture. An increasing number of people has to share a smaller pie Agriculture growth 4.4% during 2000-2008, while population growth over 3% in rural areas Low productivity (and low income earning potential) 95% of food is grown under traditional rain –fed agriculture. Informal agricultural sector has growth from 37% of GDP to 40% since 1998 Over reliance on primary agriculture (limited or no value addition) Low fertility soils, minimal use of productive farm inputs, pre- and post harvest crop losses Weak rural infrastructure (irrigation, roads, electricity, marketing) Barriers for private investments (business licensing, registration, import/export procedures ) Lack of opportunities elsewhere Lack of education and skills prevents rural people from moving out agriculture to other lucrative sectors Limited space for non-farm activities (knowledge, credit, marketing), specially for the poorest
Income from non-farm self-employment Quintile 2000/01 2007 % hh mean % hh mean % change Poorest 36.2 10,853 46.0 10,891 0.4 2 nd 43.5 14,662 51.7 22,253 51.8 3 rd 43.9 21,912 54.3 43,894 100.3 4 th 49.7 34,896 53.9 54,221 55.4 Least Poor 49.5 65,292 48.2 125,135 91.7 Dar es Salaam 46.9 81,850 51.0 108,053 32.0 Other urban 55.4 59,891 46.6 98,063 63.7 Rural 42.3 19,178 52.1 32,305 68.4 Tanzania Mainland 44.6 31,209 50.8 50,999 63.4
<ul><li>Substantial gains in education. But quality of education and lack of skilled workers are becoming constraints </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High pupil/teacher ratios (54:1) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Negative perception (school is useless/uninteresting, Dar 24%) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling cohort completion rate (78% in 2006 to 62.5% in 2008) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>One in five pupils not attending school at any given time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling transition rate from Standard VII to Form 1 (67.5 % in 2006 to 51.6% in 2008) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Only a quarter of candidates pass basic mathematics at the Form 4 exam </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Drop (26%) in the number of grads in technical and vocational education and training (BEST 2009) </li></ul></ul>
Issue Required Policy Actions Inadequate private investment Provide an enabling business environment: Remove barriers to private investment (simplifying business licensing, registration, import/export procedures) Remove controls on ownership rights (land), NTBs such as customs and admin procedures Address infrastructure issues (e.g. energy and transport) Develop the financial market and credit culture Improve quality of labour/public service Maintain macroeconomic stability Improve transparency/governance
Issue Required Policy Actions Low agricultural productivity Developing markets Provision of rural infrastructure (irrigation, rural roads, electricity, communications, and marketing facilities) Provision of farm inputs (fertilizer, credit, seeds) Address crop losses (storage, transport, packaging) Promote the use of modern technology Heavy reliance on agriculture Promote non-farm activities/value addition Facilitate migration out of agriculture to other sectors through education, skills development and urban planning
Issue Required Policy Actions Inadequate access to basic services Improve access to basic services such as health and education services, water and sanitation Inadequate social safety nets Targeted social safety nets for the vulnerable Inadequate attention on cross-cutting issues Mainstream gender and environment into the national development agenda High population growth Interventions to reduce fertility rate, education, empowerment of women and effectively implementing the National Population Policy
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