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2014 outlook for the California economy for Torrey Pines Bank
 

2014 outlook for the California economy for Torrey Pines Bank

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On the subject of expert witness services, nearly every litigation action needs someone to compute economic losses. Please keep in mind that this is one of the many services at which Xpera Group ...

On the subject of expert witness services, nearly every litigation action needs someone to compute economic losses. Please keep in mind that this is one of the many services at which Xpera Group excels. On your future cases, we would greatly appreciate it if you would introduce this valuable service to your to your clients.

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    2014 outlook for the California economy for Torrey Pines Bank 2014 outlook for the California economy for Torrey Pines Bank Presentation Transcript

    • 2014 Economic Outlook Torrey Pines Bank (619) 417-1817 anevin@xperagroup.com Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 1
    • Torrey Pines Bank      Section 1: National Economic Trends Section 2: California Economic Trends Section 3: California Residential Construction Section 4: California Commercial Construction Section 5: Comparison of Home Prices in Silicon Valley and West Los Angeles Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 2
    • Section 1: National Economic Trends Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 3
    • Position Points – National Economic Trends • The Nation is Growing Far More slowly than it should be • First Time Unemployment Claims are much higher than they should be at this point in the recovery • But the unemployment rate is down to 7.0% and • Interest rates are staying low, so at least we are moving in the right direction. Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 4
    • Change in Gross Domestic Product 1988-2012 Year 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012 Avg. % Change 6.0% 5.6% 5.0% 5.7% 2.3% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 5
    • United States Initial Claimants for Unemployment Insurance Seasonly Adjusted Weekly Jan 2004 - Dec 2013 800,000 700,000 600,000 Lehman Bros. Collapse 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 6
    • UNITED STATES Monthly Unemployment Rate 2000 - 2013 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 7.8% 6.0% 4.0% Lehman Bros. Collapse 3.8% 2.0% 0.0% Source: U.S Department of Labor Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 4
    • Section 2: California Economic Trends Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 7
    • Position Points – California Economic Trends • California has gained almost 900,000 jobs in the past 3 years • The unemployment rate has moved steadily downward • Only the dearth of construction jobs is holding back the economy. Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 9
    • Unemployment Rate California 2000-2013 (thru Nov.) 12.00% 10.00% 6.84% 8.00% Lehman Bros. Collapse 6.00% 3.97% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Torrey Pines Bank 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 www.xperagroup.com10
    • New Jobs Created in California 2010-2013 (thru Oct.) 17,200 17,000 16,994 16,800 16,600 910,000 Jobs Created between Oct 2010 and Oct 2013 16,400 16,200 16,319 16,000 15,800 15,600 Oct-10 Oct-11 Torrey Pines Bank Oct-12 Oct-13 www.xperagroup.com11
    • Construction Jobs California 2005-2013 (thru Nov.) 1,000,000 900,000 905,300 800,000 700,000 636,700 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com12
    • Section 3: California Residential Construction Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 12
    • Position Points – Residential Construction • Single family construction lags way behind what it should be • Multi-family is doing well, but it is virtually all rental housing • Renovation still plays a major role in the construction market Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com14
    • Residential Units Permitted California 2005-2014 (Projected) 250,000 200,000 Total 150,000 100,000 Single Family 50,000 Multi-Family 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Torrey Pines Bank 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 F www.xperagroup.com15
    • Single Family Units Permitted Selected Metropolitan Areas California 2009-2013 (thru October) 4500 4000 Riverside 3500 3000 2500 Los Angeles 2000 San Diego Orange County 1500 San Bernadino 1000 500 0 2009 2010 2011 Torrey Pines Bank 2012 2013 www.xperagroup.com16
    • Multi - Family Units Permitted Selected Metropolitan Areas California 2009-2013 (thru October) 10000 9000 Los Angeles County 8000 7000 6000 5000 San Diego 4000 Orange County 3000 2000 Riverside 1000 San Bernadino 0 2009 2010 2011 Torrey Pines Bank 2012 2013 www.xperagroup.com17
    • Renovation/Alterations as % of Total Valuations Selected Metropolitan Areas California 2009-2013 (thru October) 50% 45% 40% 35% Los Angeles County 30% Orange County 25% San Diego 20% San Bernadino 15% Riverside 10% 5% 0% 2009 2010 2011 Torrey Pines Bank 2012 2013 www.xperagroup.com18
    • Section 4: California Commercial Construction Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 18
    • Position Points – Commercial Construction • In most of California, office, retail and industrial construction is moving forward • Renovations account for more than half of all dollars expended • Since 2011, commercial construction is up 20% in SoCal and 35% in NorCal Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com20
    • Total Permit Valuation Commercial Construction Major Metropolitan Areas 2009-2013 (thru October) $8,000,000,000 $7,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000 $5,000,000,000 $4,000,000,000 $3,000,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $2009 2010 Southern Cal 2011 Northern Cal Torrey Pines Bank 2012 2013 San Diego www.xperagroup.com21
    • Office Building Permit Valuation Major Metropolitan Areas California 2009-1013 (thru October) $700,000,000 Northern Cal $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 Southern Cal $300,000,000 $200,000,000 San Diego $100,000,000 $- 2009 2010 Torrey Pines Bank 2011 2012 2013 www.xperagroup.com22
    • Retail Building Permit Valuation Major Metropolitan Areas California 2009-1013 (thru October) $700,000,000 Southern Cal $600,000,000 $500,000,000 Northern Cal $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 San Diego $2009 2010 Torrey Pines Bank 2011 2012 2013 www.xperagroup.com23
    • Industrial Building Permit Valuation Major Metropolitan Areas California 2009-1013 (thru October) $600,000,000 Southern Cal $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 Northern Cal $200,000,000 $100,000,000 San Diego $2009 2010 Torrey Pines Bank 2011 2012 2013 www.xperagroup.com24
    • Building Alterations Permit Valuation Major Metropolitan Areas California 2009-1013 (thru October) $4,000,000,000 Southern Cal $3,500,000,000 $3,000,000,000 $2,500,000,000 Northern Cal $2,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,000,000,000 San Diego $500,000,000 $2009 2010 Torrey Pines Bank 2011 2012 2013 www.xperagroup.com25
    • Alterations/Renovations as % of Total Commercial Permit Valuation 2009-2013 (thru October) 80% Northern Cal 70% 60% Southern Cal 50% San Diego 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 Torrey Pines Bank 2012 2013 www.xperagroup.com26
    • Commercial Lending California Real Estate Lending All California-Based Commercial Banks (loans in millions $) 2008-2013(through October) $120,000 1-4 Family $100,000 $80,000 Commercial $60,000 Construction/Land Development $40,000 Multi-Family $20,000 $3Q 2008 3Q 2009 3Q 2010 Torrey Pines Bank 3Q 2011 3Q 2012 3Q 2013 www.xperagroup.com27
    • Commercial/Industrial Equipment Loans ($Millions) by California Based Banks ( Indicating Growing Business Confidence) $70,000 $66,421 $65,000 $60,000 $58,514 $55,000 $50,000 $46,998 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 3Q 2008 3Q 2009 3Q 2010 Torrey Pines Bank 3Q 2011 3Q 2012 3Q 2013 www.xperagroup.com28
    • No. of California Based Banks 350 300 250 287 200 210 150 100 50 0 3Q 2008 3Q 2009 3Q 2010 Torrey Pines Bank 3Q 2011 3Q 2012 3Q 2013 www.xperagroup.com29
    • Section 5: Comparison of Home Prices Silicon Valley & West Los Angeles Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com 25
    • Position Points – Santa Clara Co. vs. West L.A. Battle of the Bulge • Detached home prices are up more than 20% since 2008 in both markets. • Home sales in 2009-2013 in Santa Clara County have been a steady 15,000 annually. • Both markets have average detached home prices of $1,000,000. Torrey Pines Bank www.xperagroup.com31
    • Resale Prices Index West Los Angeles & Silicon Valley (Santa Clara Co.) 2009-2013 (thru Nov.) $1,800,000 West Los Angeles $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 Santa Clara County $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $2009 2010 2011 Torrey Pines Bank 2012 2013 (thru Nov.) www.xperagroup.com32