2040 Socioeconomic Study - VLMPO Presentation

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This presentation is supplemental to the 2040 Socioeconomic Study completed by Transport Studio at the request of the Valdosta-Lowndes Metropolitan Planning Organization. More information is on our website at www.sgrc.us/transportation.

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  • We collected projections from various sources and developed our own based on Census data
  • Rounded to the nearest ten
  • 2040 Socioeconomic Study - VLMPO Presentation

    1. 1. Valdosta-Lowndes MPO 2040 Socioeconomic Data Study VLMPO Policy Committee October 29, 2013
    2. 2. Agenda • Why? • What? • How? • Results!
    3. 3. Why do you need socioeconomic data? • The need for transportation improvements • People and jobs create trips • • • • How many? When? Where from? Where to? • Federal funding • Federal requirements • GDOT regulations
    4. 4. What kind of data? • Population and employment • Base and existing year data • 2010 base year • Today’s updates • 2040 horizon year projections • Interim year projections
    5. 5. Planning Data Transportation Comprehensive planning • Population and households • Housing • Gender • Age • Race • Educational attainment • Labor force • Income • Employment • • • • Service Retail Manufacturing Wholesale • Student enrollment
    6. 6. How? LRTP Data and Projection Process • Base year data • Determine horizon year control totals • Distribute growth to zones • Traffic analysis zones or TAZs • Verify and revise • Develop interim year data
    7. 7. Various Population Projections
    8. 8. Horizon Year Population – Lowndes County
    9. 9. Horizon Year Population – Model Area 2010 Travel Demand Model Area Population 110,780 2040 Travel Demand Model Area Population 154,820 40% increase in thirty years
    10. 10. Major Assumptions • Household and employment growth follow population growth trend • Ratio of jobs to housing in region • Kinds of jobs in region • • • • Service Retail Manufacturing Wholesale • Growth Areas • Densities • Dwelling units per acre • Jobs per acre
    11. 11. Horizon Year Targets (2040) Lowndes 149,288 146,302 TDM Households Wholesale Employment Retail Employment Service Employment Manufacturing Employment TDM Employment TDM Population County-wide Population Travel Demand Model (TDM) Area Variables 76,082 5,057 50,025 19,634 1,366 59,472 Berrien 24,514 841 1 0 1 0 0 342 Brooks 17,644 3,720 65 3 44 2 16 1,512 Lanier 13,868 3,959 5 0 1 4 0 1,609 205,314 154,822 76,153 5,060 50,071 19,640 1,382 62,936 Total
    12. 12. Wholesale Employment Retail Employment Service Employment Manufacturing Employment TDM Total Employment Households TDM Population TDM VLMPO Travel Demand Model (TDM) Area 2010 110,780 45,040 54,340 3,610 35,730 14,010 990 2040 154,820 62,940 76,150 5,060 50,070 19,640 1,380 Households and employment follow population growth trend in the region
    13. 13. Land already developed -ornot suitable for development Future population and employment distributed to zones Land suitable for development Developable land by Growth Area and other parameters
    14. 14. Distribute Growth to Zones A. Growth Areas within zone boundary B. Suitable and available for development C. Developable acres within each Growth Area are assigned jobs or housing D. Developable acres with access to water or sewer service may be assigned jobs or housing A D B C
    15. 15. Population 2010
    16. 16. Population Density 2010
    17. 17. Population Density 2040
    18. 18. Employment Density 2010
    19. 19. Employment Density 2040
    20. 20. Findings • Identified Growth Areas will accommodate most growth by 2040 • Some households assigned to areas zoned residential with existing access to water or sewer service • Service jobs assigned to areas with existing access to water or sewer service based on zoning • Industrial Growth Areas contain more land than will be needed by 2040 for projected manufacturing and wholesale jobs
    21. 21. Recommendations • Consistent Census boundaries and traffic analysis zone boundaries • Update Census boundaries to reflect real life conditions if applicable • Adjust zone boundaries as needed • Evaluate Growth Areas during plan update(s) • Evaluate land use scenarios with VLMPO travel demand model • Evaluate policies and development patterns through comprehensive planning process • Continue coordination with MAFB and other major employers
    22. 22. Thank you Corey Hull, AICP 229-333-5277 chull@sgrc.us Whitney Shephard, PE, LEED AP 912-677-0430 whitney@transportstudio.net

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