Economic outlook june 2012

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Economic outlook june 2012

  1. 1. Economic Outlook: Uncertainty in Global MarketJune 6, 2012 CIMB Niaga Treasury - Research & Strategy
  2. 2. Utang dan Defisit DuniaUtang meningkat dengan pesat yang Country Debt (USD Bio) S&P Debt-to-GDP 2011 United States 15,071 AA+u 100diakibatkan oleh: Japan 14,276 AA-u 2331. Stimulus fiskal Germany 2,777 AAAu 822. Program Bailout Perbankan France 2,260 AA+u 873. Over Spending United Kingdom 1,951 AAAu 81 Italy 2,518 BBB+u 121 Spain 960 A 70 Netherlands 521 AAAu 66 Greece 479 CC 166 Portugal 238 BB 106 Ireland 225 BBB+ 109 Belgium 463 AAu 95 Austria 285 AA+ 72 Australia 351 AAAu 23 IMF - Sep 2011
  3. 3. Utang dan Defisit Dunia Governments try to reduce deficits and debts IMF WEO Apr 2012
  4. 4. Utang dan Defisit DuniaHouseholds try toreduce debts andincrease saving IMF WEO Apr 2012
  5. 5. Euro Exposures1. Asia Pacific exposures to Euro relatively small2. Euro exposures to Asia Pacific relatively smallIMF WEO Apr 2012
  6. 6. Utang dan Defisit DuniaLangkah-langkahpenyelamatan Eropa dari Country Deficit 2010 Deficit 2011 Deficit 2012 United States -10.33 -9.64 -7.92defisit, utang dan Japan -8.08 -8.88 -9.14ancaman kebangkrutan Germany -3.30 -1.67 -1.101. Penghematan France -7.08 -5.89 -4.62 United Kingdom -10.21 -8.47 -7.01 Anggaran Italy -4.48 -4.04 -2.362. European Financial Spain -9.24 -6.14 -5.16 Stability Fund Netherlands -5.34 -3.85 -2.803. Banks recapitalization Greece -10.42 -7.98 -6.87 Portugal -9.14 -5.87 -4.494. Debt Swap Ireland -31.98 -10.32 -8.595. Pembelian surat utang Belgium -4.08 -3.54 -3.35 Eropa oleh ECB Austria -4.62 -3.47 -3.216. Pinjaman lunak ECB Australia -4.95 -3.86 -1.86 IMF - Sep 2011 terhadap bank Eropa
  7. 7. Mesin Ekonomi Yang Melambat Inflasi dan Aktivitas Ekonomi Cina Euro Zone Unemployment & Inflation10 65 11.0 3.38 60 10.5 2.26 554 50 10.0 1.12 CPI YoY 450 9.5 0.0 1Y Best Lending Rates-2 40 PMI Manufacturing Index - rhs Bloomberg Bloomberg-4 35 9.0 -1.1 Apr-09 Mar-10 Feb-11 Jan-12 Unemployment Rate Inflation Y/Y - rhs
  8. 8. Bangkitnya Raksasa Ekonomi Dunia X 1000 US Labor Market % 600 11 Pasar Tenaga Kerja 400 Amerika Mulai pulih: 200 9 1. 3.7 juta orang telah kembali bekerja sejak 0 2010 -200 7 2. Tingkat pengangguran -400 turun ke 8.1% dari -600 5 10.0% -800 Bloomberg 3. Masih ada 5 juta orang-1000 3 yang menganggur Non Farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate - rhs
  9. 9. Kebijakan Moneter Yang EkspansifBank Sentral Suku Bunga 2012 PolicyFederal Reserve 0.25% Suku Bunga 0.25% sampai 2014 Ada Kemungkinan QE 3ECB 1.00% Ada kemungkinan turun suku bunga 25 - 50 bps LTRO EUR 1 TrilyunBank of Japan 0.10% QE Naik JPY 10 Trilyun dan Ada Kemungkinan Tambah Inflation Target 1%Bank of England 0.50% QE Naik GBP 50 Billion ResikoSuku Bunga Pertumbuhan Likuiditas/ Ekonomi Fluktuasi
  10. 10. Kebijakan Moneter Yang EkspansifIMF WEO Apr 2012
  11. 11. Kebijakan Moneter Yang Ekspansif Interest Rates in Long Term: 1. UK and US are rising 2. Euro is decreasing IMF WEO Apr 2012
  12. 12. Suku Bunga Pasar % 3-Month Offering Rates (15 Apr 11 = 1) % 10Y Bond Yield (15 Apr 11 = 1)2.25 1.8 1.51.75 1.21.25 0.90.75 0.6 Bloomberg Bloomberg0.25 0.3 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 AUD USD GBP IDR EUR Indonesia US Germany Portugal Spain
  13. 13. Suku Bunga Pasar% YoY Inflation 1. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 8 Kuat Biasanya Disertai 7 6 Inflasi Tinggi 5 2. Inflasi Yang Tinggi Dapat 4 Disebabkan Oleh 3 2 Kebijakan Moneter 1 Longgar 0 3. Inflasi Tinggi Biasanya-1 Disertai Mata Uang Lemah-2 Bloomberg-3 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 UK US Australia Indonesia
  14. 14. Market and Inflation Rates Current Rates 3M 2Y 10Y CPI YOY 1. Negative interest USD 0.466 0.254 1.870 2.70 CAD 1.347 1.273 2.020 1.90 rate is not always BRL 8.382 8.466 10.030 5.24 bad for currency EUR 0.618 0.101 1.605 2.70 2. Falling interest rate GBP 1.011 0.415 2.005 3.50 RUB 6.850 6.764 8.270 3.60 causes currencies to CHF 0.112 -0.035 0.671 -1.00 weaken JPY 0.196 0.110 0.867 0.50 3. Safe heaven CNY 4.200 2.930 3.590 3.60 KRW 3.540 3.380 3.750 2.50 currencies strong AUD 4.216 2.746 3.412 1.60 NZD 2.873 NA 3.724 1.60 when risks high INR 9.410 NA 8.664 8.65 IDR 4.227 4.645 6.078 4.50 SGD 0.382 0.200 1.510 5.20 MYR 3.165 3.097 3.575 2.10 PHP 3.192 3.310 5.846 3.00As of 8 May 2012
  15. 15. Pasar Komoditas $/ Troy $/ Ounce Hot Commodity Barrel 1,825 112 1,775 107 1,7251. Uneven Global 1,675 102 Economic Growth2. Low inflation 1,625 973. Expansionary 1,575 monetary policy Bloomberg 1,525 92 29-Nov 20-Dec 10-Jan 31-Jan 21-Feb Gold Crude Oil (NYMEX) - rhs
  16. 16. Pasar Saham Equity Indices Performance 5.00 (Jan 2005 = 1)1. Pertumbuhan 4.00 Ekonomi Dunia Tidak Merata 3.002. Inflasi rendah 2.003. Kebijakan Moneter Longgar 1.004. Harga Komoditas Bloomberg Stabil 0.00 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 IHSG Dow Jones Shanghai Straits Times
  17. 17. Pasar Saham Stock Market & Volatility 13,500 451. Saham Kuat Jika 12,900 37 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kuat 12,300 292. Saham Kuat Jika Volatilitas Rendah 11,700 213. Volatilitas Rendah 11,100 13 Jika Resiko Pasar Bloomberg Rendah 10,500 5 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Dow Jones IA Stock VIX - rhs
  18. 18. Currency Ranking Currency Performance against USD 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Bloomberg (8 May 12)-10 CAD BRL EUR GBP RUB CHF JPY CNY KRWAUD NZD INR IDR SGD MYR PHP 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
  19. 19. Currency Matrix Economic Growth Inflation Monetary Policy 2012 Bias Short Term Long Term STRONG MEDIUM WEAKUSD USDCAD CADBRL BRLEUR EURGBP GBPRUB RUBCHF CHF JPY JPYCNY CNYKRW KRWAUD AUDNZD NZD INR INR IDR IDRSGD SGDMYR MYRPHP PHP
  20. 20. Perekonomian IndonesiaKenapa Harga BBM Indonesia Government SpendingDapat Naik? 5 (2001 = 1)1. Harga minyak 4 dunia naik2. Subsidi 3 membengkak3. Indonesia Net 2 Impotir minyak 1 MoF Indonesia 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Govt Expenditures Subsidies Oil Subsidies 20
  21. 21. Economic Challenges
  22. 22. Perekonomian IndonesiaDampak Kenaikan USD/IDR & Car Sales 12,000 90,000BBM & TDL:1. Inflasi 6 – 7%2. Defisit 2.2% PDB 11,000 75,0003. BI Rate 5.75 – 6%4. USD/IDR 9,100 10,000 60,0005. 10Y Yield 6.5 - 7% 9,000 45,000 Bloomberg; Gaikindo 8,000 30,000 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 USD/IDR Indonesia Car Sales - rhs
  23. 23. Economic Data and FX Correlation - IDR% USD/IDR & Overnight Rate Inflation Adjusted 1. Bank Central dapat5 12,500 menaikkan suku bunga dan/4 atau mengendalikan 11,6003 pertumbuhan kredit2 10,700 2. Tambahan subsidi BBM dapat mengendalikan inflasi tapi1 9,800 berakibat anggaran defisit0 3. Inflasi dampak negatif 8,900-1 temporary sedangkan defisit Bloomberg-2 8,000 dampak negatif long term Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Spread IDR O/N Depo & Inflation USD/IDR - rhs
  24. 24. Ekspektasi Nilai Tukar 2012CIMB KL Research
  25. 25. Main Issues1. China and Europe economic growth slow2. US economic growth accelerates3. Inflation slows in the short term but accelerates in the long term4. Expansionary monetary policies5. Euro debt problem is a major threat for global economy6. Asia Pacific growth in 2012 is quite strong but weaker than 20117. Stable commodity price
  26. 26. Economic Data and FX Correlation - USD x1000 US Labor & Stock Performance US Inflation and USD FX Rate %600 14,000 90 3400 87 2 12,500200 84 1 0 81 0 11,000-200 78 -1-400 75 -2 9,500-600 72 -3 Bloomberg Bloomberg-800 8,000 69 -4 Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 US Non-Farm Payrolls Dow Jones Industrial Avg - rhs USD Index USD 3M Libor Inflation Adj - rhs
  27. 27. Economic Data and FX Correlation – Other Currency% 3-Month Libor Inflation Adj & USD/CAD Australia Rate & Consumer Confidence %3 1.3 123 5.02 114 4.5 1.21 105 4.00 1.1 96 3.5-1-2 87 3.0 1.0 Bloomberg-3 Bloomberg 78 2.5-4 0.9 Mar-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 CAD USD USD/CAD - rhs Westpac Consumer Confidence RBA Cash - rhs
  28. 28. Economic Data and FX Correlation – Other Currency % GBP and USD 3 Month Libor Inflation Adjusted-0.5 1.68-1.3 1.63-2.1 1.58-2.9 1.53-3.7 1.48 Bloomberg-4.5 1.43 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 GBP USD GBP/USD - rhs
  29. 29. Economic Data and Commodity Correlation China Manufacturing & Commodity Price x 1000 US Jobless Claims & Price of Oil $/ barrel58 400 700 12356 350 600 10354 300 500 8352 250 400 6350 Bloomberg Bloomberg48 200 300 43 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 China PMI Manufacturing CRB Commodity Index - rhs Initial Jobless Claims Crude Oil NYMEX
  30. 30. Analysis – CRB Commodity Index1. Downtrend2. Strong support: 294.503. Resistance: 325.914. GDP Growth and risk aversion driven
  31. 31. Analysis – Gold Spot1. Ranging2. Support: 1,5603. Resistance: 1,7904. Inflation driven
  32. 32. Analysis – Crude Oil (Brent)1. Ranging2. Currently decreasing3. Support: 108.504. Resistance: 119.705. Growth driven
  33. 33. DisclaimerBy accepting this commentary, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such commentary in accordancewith the restrictions set forth below and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein (including the “Restrictions onDistributions” set out below). Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law.This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of PT CIMB-Niaga Bank (“CIMB”). This publication isbeing supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied,duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person inwhole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB.This commentary has been prepared by the Sales Research team at the Treasury division of CIMB (“Treasury Research”). The informationherein is not intended to constitute “research” as it is defined by applicable laws.CIMB, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions insecurities of the company(ies) covered in this commentary or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add to or disposeof, or may be materially interested in, any such securities. Further, CIMB, its affiliates and its related companies do and seek to dobusiness with the company(ies) covered in this commentary and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed anunderwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and mayalso perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies) aswell as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this commentary. The views expressed in thiscommentary accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) at Treasury Research about the subject securities or issuers and thecompensation of the analyst(s), is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the performance of the Group Treasury division’s activities.CIMB prohibits the analyst(s) who prepared this commentary from receiving any compensation, incentive or bonus based on specificinvestment banking transactions or for providing a specific recommendation for, or view of, a particular company. However, the analyst(s)may receive compensation that is based on his/their coverage of company(ies) in the performance of his/their duties or the performanceof his/their recommendations and the personnel involved in the preparation of this commentary may also participate in the solicitation ofthe businesses as described above. In reviewing this commentary, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, amongother things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the duties of confidentiality,available on request. 33
  34. 34. DisclaimerThe information contained in this commentary is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of thiscommentary. This commentary does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. CIMB does notmake any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness ofany such information and opinion contained in this commentary and accordingly, neither CIMB nor any of its affiliates nor its relatedpersons shall not be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect orconsequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof.This commentary is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst CIMB’sclients generally and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specificperson who may receive this commentary. The information and opinions in this commentary are not and should not be construed orconsidered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financialinstruments thereof.This commentary is issued and distributed by Treasury Research at CIMB. The views and opinions in this commentary are that of GroupTreasury Research as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Treasury Research has no obligation to update its opinion or theinformation in this commentary.Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this commentary, consider their ownindividual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to thelegal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies) coveredin this commentary. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors.This commentary is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or locatedin any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law orregulation.
  35. 35. Thank you Research & Strategy – Treasury Dept

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