Gaming future

Generational Jumps in 3D Home Consoles and the future
By Urian

First Generation
Characters made of hundreds of polygons
2-4MB
320x240 resolution
Texture Mapping with very basic filter effects.
Non-Programmable

Second Generation
Characters made of thousand of polygons
32-64MB
640x480
Multitexture Mapping with advanced filters.
Non-Fully Programmable

Third Generation
Characters made of tens of thousand of polygons.
512MB
1280x720 as the target resolution.
Multitexture and PostProcesing advanced Effects
Fully Programmable

Is it possible a fourth generation?

The problem

The problem (II)
Game Development Costs are growing at a faster rate than the market can absorb. Supply overpasses demand.
The market is growing in the Wii side, “The Industry” has erroneously identified this phenomenon with Casual Gaming, it is really neo-arcade gaming.
The greatest population group in the first world are the people between 40-60 years, neo-arcade gaming is about recovering the lost players.
“The Industry” is completely focused in the young demography and it has become stagnant (no growth)

Change of values
With the success of Wii the classical values of the industry have been challenged.
Better technology (in graphics) and better production values were a sure value.
Is a fourth 3D Generation Possible?

They have been disrupted
People were unready to adopt HD Graphics.
In first and second generation an additional cost in form of TV wasn’t needed.
Millions of people play HD games in SD sets.
Nintendo took advantage of this and redefined the main value of gaming.

The most sold game in the last Christmas

Now let’s talk about the 4th generation
Characters Made by Hundreds of Thousands of Polygons. (Tessellation)
4GB
1920x1080 with 3D Stereo
Real Time Reyes Rendering
OpenCL

It sounds tempting and impressive but…

… current market can’t support it
The industry is searching for new methods of invoice since they can’t take the money that they need.
The ideas around Digital Distribution are appearing because the rate of return for every $ invested in games is more and more lower with time.
3D Home Stereo is today to repeat the same mistakes from the last years… are you sure that people is going to buy a 3DTV and Glasses for Playing?

The most logical way for gaming industry

Nettop revolution
In a pair of years the GPUs included in the low cost Nettops will be able to render without problems the HD Graphics from current consoles.
This means that companies like Activision, EA, Ubi Soft, THQ… could make a bypass to the console first parties.
This bypass means not having to pay royalties to the first parties (more money per game sold)
This also means that the digital distribution would be adopted more easily (thanks to platforms like Steam).
The number of home computers that are sold every year are greater then the number of consoles, this could be an expansion for Gaming Industry.

¿remember 1983?

What happened and what could happen
After the huge crash a lot of game development studios and editors moved to computers.
The crash was produced when Time Warner put out the plug for Atari and sold it in two parts, people started to say that the era of consoles were no more
SCEI and MS E&D are divisions that are being founded by others, any time their parent companies could put out the plug and kill any of them.
If this happens then we wouldn’t see any fourth generation like the one that is expected because consoles war will be no more.

But they will repeat a great mistake
Children weren’t considered important customers and were ignored by the computer gaming industry.
But the Nintendo designed a platform around the family (children too) and won the leadership of the market.
Gaming Industry is repeating the fallacy that the casual gaming is a fad, they said the same 20 years ago.
The sad part is that the “casual gamers” are nothing more than the gamers of the past who are now interested again.

See Kinect and Move for example

They were created for the industry
Gaming Industry believes that they don’t sell to the market that they call “casual” because Nintendo.
The truth is that they don’t sell because their offer is composed by crappy products.
They don’t understand the real definition of gaming, they watch Wii Sports and they see a product with crappy technology and their conclusion is that the customer of Wii wants crappy products.
They will fail, if they weren’t able to create a killer app for the Wii they won’t be able to create one for Move and/or Kinect.

In reality they are the equivalent to this

In other words… industry doesn’t know how to grow

People who are returning or discovering gaming are parents
A lot of jokes with mature people (in special with soccer moms) but the great majority of them are parents.
Because the industry hates children (History talks for itself and you only need to see the crappy content that they do for them) they have forgotten something very important.
Children will grow with the consoles that were bought by their parents, thanks to this new audience the gaming systems will be another appliance inside every home like TV.

The past of gaming

The future of gaming

Are you sure that we are going to see the fourth 3D generation?

Thanks to read me
And have a nice day.

Gaming future

by Urian1983 on Jul 26, 2010

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Gaming future — Presentation Transcript