EEUU: ¿Qué debemos esperar de la economía de EEUU?

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Foro Alumni "Encendiendo los Motores del Crecimiento Mundial" realizado el 29 de abril en el Hotel El Pueblo.
Expositor Piero Ghezzi (egresado UP Managing Director and Head of Global Economics and Emerging Markets Research Barclays Capital)

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  • EEUU: ¿Qué debemos esperar de la economía de EEUU?

    1. 1. Perspectivas de la econom í a de EEUU Confidential Presentation Piero Ghezzi, Economista Jefe y Jefe de Investigaci ó n para Mercados Emergentes Lima, Abril 2009
    2. 2. Situaci ó n actual <ul><li>Es la recesi ó n m á s severa desde los años 30… </li></ul><ul><li>...que combina una recesi ó n tradicional (petr ó leo e inmobilaria) con una crisis financiera global. </li></ul>Note: GDP gap for past crises estimated using by gap between actual forecasted GDP in 2Q09 and GDP assuming growth at the potential rate since the beginning of the recession. EM Crisis include Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, Korea and Singapore. Source: Haver, Barclays Capital.
    3. 3. Shocks Globales: revienta la burbuja inmobiliaria Precios del mercado inmobiliario mundial Source: “Global Housing Prices: Back to reality”, Monday November 24 th , 2008. (*) “The consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion” forthcoming Quarterly Journal of Economics.
    4. 4. Shocks Globales : shock petrolero Shocks en el precio del petr ó leo Source: Haver Analytics, Barclays Capital. $/bl 2008 Q1 Avg: $97.34 2008 Q2 Avg: $121.65 1.3 2.2 07 Avg Euro (q/q ar) US (q/q saar) Real private consumption growth 0.0 -0.8 0.0 -3.8 1.2 0.9 08Q3 08Q2 08Q1
    5. 5. Shocks Globales : ataque de p á nico Source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg Note: Data includes S&P daily returns up until Jan 20, 2008. Desviaci ón estándar mensual de los retornos diarios del S&P 500 (anualizado)
    6. 6. Shocks Globales: spreads de bonos corporativos Source: Barclays Capital. Spreads de los bonos corporativos Lehman default
    7. 7. Sin embargo, se han sembrado las semillas de la recuperaci ón <ul><li>Por la respuesta de pol í tica m á s importante de la historia moderna: EC + Est í mulo Global + “Super” IMF </li></ul><ul><li>Y por la mayor brecha de producto en d é cadas. </li></ul>Source: Barclays Capital.
    8. 8. <ul><ul><li>Datos: de todos negativos a la mayoria negativos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>La ca í da en inventorios parece indicar un rebote </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pol í ticas: monetaria y fiscal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Esto genera retroalimentaci ó n positiva entre los mercados y la economia real </li></ul></ul>Tres razones para ser medianamente optimistas
    9. 9. Encontrando el piso: datos mejores que los esperados Source: Department of Commerce, Barclays Capital Note: 1-mth rolling average of US activity data surprise z-score Indicador sorpresa en los datos de EEUU
    10. 10. Encontrando el piso: ca í da en inflaci ó n ayuda ingresos reales Source: BEA, BLS, Haver Analytics.
    11. 11. Encontrando el piso: impacto hist ó rico de shocks de incertidumbre Source: Bloom, Nicholas and Max Floetotto (2009). “The recession will be over sooner than you think,” January 12, 2009. Note: Simulation of combined 30% drop in stock prices and tripling in stock market volatility. Impacto del nivel de la Bolsa de valores y su volatilidad en el crecimiento del PBI (% qoq ar)
    12. 12. Encontrando el piso: brecha entre ventas y producci ó n Source: Federal Reserve, BEA, Barclays Capital Crecimiento en la producc ión y el consumo
    13. 13. Encontrando el piso: ca í da record en inventarios Source: BEA, Barclays Capital Cambio en inventarios privados reales como % del PBI real
    14. 14. Encontrando el piso: PBI y ventas Source: BEA, Barclays Capital. 1982 Recession Current Recession Forecast
    15. 15. Respuestas de Pol í tica: el problema con el TALF Source: Barclays Capital Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) Pol ítica y Problemas <ul><li>Comenzar el cr édito de consumo y empresarial </li></ul><ul><li>Muy grande: inicialmente hasta $200bn; finalmente hasta $1tr </li></ul><ul><li>Financiamiento generoso </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bajo inter és, tasa de la Fed a tres años </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Margenes(haircuts) modestos </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Riesgos para la contraparte: cambio de reglas? </li></ul><ul><li>Pequeño al comienzo: $4.7bn en el primer round, $1.7bn en el segundo round </li></ul>Asset Specific Haircut AAA Tarjetas de Credito Pagares, Prestamos Auto, Hipotecas, Prestamos Estudiantiles $900 billion Assets Backed Securities Special Purpose Vehicle Financiado por la FED $100 billion Financiado por el TARP Financiado por inversionistas
    16. 16. <ul><ul><li>Eliminar los malos pr é stamos e incentivar nuevos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solo hasta un 20% de activos inmobiliarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mark-to-market: las fuerzas del mercado rapidamente marcan los pr é stamos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Riesgos de contraparte: cambiar á el gobierno las reglas de juego? </li></ul></ul>Respuestas de Pol í tica: PPIP’s con expectativas no muy optimistas Public-Private Investment Program ($bn) Pol ítica y Problemas 20% 36% 16% Share of Bank Holdings 5,400 1,100 4,300 4Q08 Outstanding 1,100 Total 400 Legacy Securities 700 Legacy Loans PPIP
    17. 17. Respuestas de Pol í tica: shock fiscal y sorpresa Source: Barclays Capital. El deficit fiscal federal de EEUU se preve ser á de -14% of GDP en el 2009 180 368 170 245 $ bn 1.5% 5.3% 3.5% 1.7% % of GDP Europa Jap ó n China EEUU 2009 Estimulo Fiscal
    18. 18. Respuestas de Pol í tica: r á pidamente hacia cero Source: Barclays Capital. Note: Estimated Taylor Rule is Funds Rate = 4.4 – 2.0 *(unemployment rate—NAIRU) + 1.3 * NAIRU = 5.5% (Core PCE inflation—inflation target); assume inflation target = 1.8%. Taylor Rule implied f/c Tasa de Inter és de la Reserva Federal (%)
    19. 19. Respuestas de Pol í tica: expansi ó n cuantitativa Source: Fed Reserve, Bank of England, Barclays Capital. Se duplica el balance general de los Bancos Centrales Se deja de lado al Sector Bancario $ bn
    20. 20. Respuestas de Pol í tica: expansi ó n cuantitativa en esteroides Note: Treasury coupons are 2y or longer maturities. Source: US Treasury, Barclays Capital 2009 $bn 15.7% 28.3% 6.6% 8.1% Adquisici ó n de la FED como % del Saldo 11,136 4,415 3,010 3,711 Saldo 5,512 2,247 1,185 2,080 Emisi ón Bruta 2,212 572 100 1,540 Emisi ón neta 1,750 Total 1,250 Hipotecas respaldadas por Agencias 200 Valores de Agencias 300 Cupones del Tesoro Monto adquirido por la FED
    21. 21. La recuperaci ó n: desbordamiento del mercado automotriz Source: Department of Commerce, Barclays Capital Ventas de vehiculos Forecast
    22. 22. La recuperaci ó n: desbordamiento del mercado inmobiliario Source: Census, Barclays Capital Construcci ón : historia y equilibrio Forecast
    23. 23. Viento en contra: redescubriendo las ventajas del ahorro Source: BEA. Ratio de ahorro personal Proyecci ón
    24. 24. Viento en contra: crisis financiera masiva Source: Blooomberg, Financial Times, RGE Monitor. “Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown” Greenlaw, Hatzius, Kashyap and Shin, Feburary 2008. $3.6 trillion Nouriel Roubini (Jan, 2009) Estimado de p érdidas financieras $945 billion $4.1 trillion IMF (Apr, 2008) IMF (Apr, 2009) $500 billion Greenlaw, Hatzius, Kashyap, Shin (February, 2008)
    25. 25. Viento en contra: recesiones con crisis financieras son m á s duras Source: IMF P érdidas y ganancias de producción tipicas en recesiones y recuperaciones
    26. 26. Lo m á s probable: la recuperaci ó n en EEUU ser á moderada Source: BEA, Barclays Capital. Nivel del Indicador del PBI despues del piso de recesi ó n 9.5 6.1 7.7 2.9
    27. 27. <ul><ul><li>La Reserva Federal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Retirar liquidez en la medida que apetito por riesgo aumenta </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Privatizar mercados de capitales y aumentar tasas de interes </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mantener recuperaci ó n a pesar de reducci ó n de apalancamiento. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pol í tica Fiscal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Evitar d é ficits cr ó nicos </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hay que regular pero preservando la innovaci ó n </li></ul></ul></ul>Riesgos: C ó mo termina?
    28. 28. <ul><ul><li>Factores negativos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mercado laboral es a ú n d é bil </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Efecto riqueza de la ca í da aguda de mercado de acciones e inmobiliario se puede intensificar </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Recuperaci ó n financiera puede ser ef ímera : retroalimentaci ó n negativa </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Factors positivos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Demanda insatisfecha </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Impulso de pol í tica fiscal y monetaria enorme </li></ul></ul></ul>Riesgos: escenarios alternativos
    29. 29. Perspectivas de la econom í a de EEUU Confidential Presentation Piero Ghezzi, Economista Jefe y Jefe de Investigaci ó n para Mercados Emergentes Lima, Abril 2009
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