Energy• Key Determinant of Economic Development• Uninterrupted and affordable supply of energy for accelerated growth• An important economic indicator• Developing world and energy demand• Pakistan’s energy demand
Pakistan’s Energy Consumption Mix• Pakistan’s total energy consumption stood at 63.1 MTOE (Million Tons of Oil Equivalent) in FY2009-10• Transformation from oil to natural gas Increasing oil prices Exploration of gas and coal• Increase in foreign reserves
Increase in Consumption of Energy (Sector wise)• From period FY 2009-10 to FY 2010-11• Petroleum Products: Industrial (22.5%) Government (19.7%)• Gas: Transportation (14.3%)• Coal: Cement (3.1%)• Electricity: Household (3.8%) Commercial (1.9%) Industrial (7.3%) Government (4.1%)
Crude Oil Supply• The balance recoverable reserve of crude oil in Pakistan is estimated at 280.647 million barrels.• Oil producing fields: Dhullian, Joya Mir, Balkassar, Khaur, Karsal, Tut, Mayal, Sarang etc. Average Crude Oil Overall Production Production Per Day (Million Barrels) July-March 65245.69 Barrels 17.88 2009-10 July-March 65,996.50 Barrels 18.08 2010-11 1.15%
Natural Gas Supply• Energy Security Action Plan of Planning Commission forecasted shortfall in gas supplies
Natural Gas Supply • The balance recoverable reserve of natural gas is estimated at 26.62 Trillion Cubic Feet. • Gas Fields: Sui, Uch, Khairpur, Khankot, Jaccobabad, Mehal, Dhullian, etc. Average Production Overall Production Per Day (MCF) (Million Cubic Feet)July-March 4,048.76 1,109,360.242009-10July-March 4050.84 1,109,930.162010-11 0.05%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) • Contributes about 0.6% of the country’s total energy supply mix • To impede the deforestation process • Use of LPG in Automotives under Safety Framework of OGRA • Increase in import of LPG by 37 % relative to last year (July-March 2009-10)
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)• Promotion of CNG Expensive imported fuel Ambient air quality• Pakistan: the largest CNG using country• CNG Stations: 3,329• CNG Vehicles: 2.5 million
Coal Supply• Reserves estimated at 185 billion Tons• Gas Fields: Thar, Makarwal, Khushab, Khewara, Dandot, Pidh etc.• Supply of Coal during July-March 2010-11 increased by 10.3% compared to corresponding period of last fiscal year.• Approximately 67% coal is imported due to under exploitation of indigenous coal resources and low quality coal issue (esp. of salt mine ranges coal)
Electricity Supply• Sources of Electricity: Hydel, Thermal (gas/ steam/ furnace oil) and Nuclear• Major Power Producers: WAPDA, KESC, IPPs, PAEC• Power generation capacity of Pakistan (including all sources) is 20,681 MW (March 2010).• Total electricity demand is 15,500 – 16,000 MW roughly• PEPCO (Pakistan Electric Power Company) is merely producing 11,000 MW against the total installed capacity of about twenty thousand MW.
Supply Sources of Electricity (March 2010)• Total installed capacity of PEPCO: 20681 MW• Hydro Production: 6555 MW• Thermal Production: 14126 MW WAPDA GENCOs: 4829 MW Rental Power Plants: 323 MW PAEC: 665 MW IPPs: 8309 MW
Electricity Demand & Supply Gap (Source : PEPCO)
Reasons for Power Shortages• Circular Debt• High Power losses• Shortfall in Gas Supply• Seasonality of Hydel Power• Lack of Demand Side Management• Poor Governance & Regulation
Energy Crises: Issues & Recommendations• Growing Energy Demand• Imbalanced Energy Consumption Mix• Under exploitation of indigenous resources• Poor Governance & Lack of Integrated Planning
Growing Energy Demand • Increase in Population “Every year Pakistan adds the equivalent of a New Zealand to its population; every two years, a Switzerland; every three years, a Greece; every four years, a Chile or a Netherlands; and every five, an Australia.” • Industrial and Agricultural Growth • Urbanization
Imbalanced Energy Consumption Mix • Greater share (more than 70%) of non- renewable energy resources (oil & gas) in energy consumption mix. • Any shock in these resources affects significantly the overall economy. • Need of a greater share of renewable, indigenous and affordable energy mix.
Alternative Energy Resources• Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is serving as the executing agency at the federal level to consolidate the project proposals from federal, provincial and other public entities for submission to ADB for subsequent loan tranches.• AEDB under its mandate serves as a One- window facility to process all Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) projects both in Public and the Private Sectors.
Solar, Wind, Biodiesel• AEDB issued seven (7) letters of Intent (LOI) for wind power projects.• AEDB has engaged Pakistan State Oil (PSO) for furthering the National Biodiesel Programme and provided a production plant of biodiesel to PSO for the optimization of processing techniques for Biodiesel.• Pakistan’s first ever commercial Biodiesel production facility with the capacity of producing 18,000 tons of Biodiesel per annum has been setup in Karachi by the private sector.
Solar, Wind, Biodiesel• Pakistan is blessed with a huge solar potential of more than 5-6 KWH/m²/day of irradiation the province of Baluchistan followed by Eastern Sindh and Southern Punjab promising technical and financially viable solar energy projects.• Street lights and billboards consume around 400 MW of power which can be taken off from the grid by converting these loads to solar.• AEDB plans to electrify 400 villages, 100 in Sindh and 400 in Baluchistan. 49 villages in Sindh have already been electrified where 3000 Solar Home Systems are installed.
Conclusion• Energy Sector is the lifeline of an economy.• Energy demand is growing over the time specially in Developing World.• “Energy crisis in Pakistan is a management and not a capacity issue” (Framework for Economic Growth Pakistan May 2011: Planning Commission)• Integrated Energy Planning is the need of the hour.• Develop indigenous energy resources (Thar Coal)• Research for New Uninterrupted and Affordable energy sources.• Improve Governance and Demand Side Management
Connect With Us ULTRASPECTRA OPEN AcademyFacebook.com/Ultraspectra Facebook.com/openacademy.isbTwitter.com/Ultraspectra Twitter.com/openacademyisbYouTube.com/user/ultraspectra YouTube.com/user/openacademyLinkedIn.com/in/Ultraspectra LinkedIn.com/in/openacademyForum.ultraspectra.com