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Dr. Bob Johansen at UT Austin 11 05 09

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    Numerous social scientists, including Clay Shirky, have shown that “there is a steep decline from a few wildly active participants to a large group of barely active participants … this is the general pattern in social media. The most active participant is gener- ally much more active than the participant in the number two slot, and far more active than average. A common power-law distribution across all emerging participatory systems.”17 To the uninitiated, a large number of people barely doing anything could seem like a mark of failure. But systems can effectively account for, and capitalize on, this variation. Are there micro- tasks or one-off tasks requiring minimal effort that individuals at the bottom of the distribution curve can successfully complete? Are there large-scale, more ambitious tasks that the top users can tackle to more effectively channel their extreme enthusiasm for the project? Crucially, all levels of participants are needed, not just the peak users. Those all-stars are performing for the barely active users, and enjoying the experience of leading the moderately active users. In this way, the community resembles a pyramid of participation, which is a term first coined by game company 42 Entertainment and now frequently used by many online game designers to describe their participation models.18 Emotionally, the base of the pyramid actively supports the top, even if they are making far fewer concrete contributions. But effectively, the peak supports the entire community and the larger goals of the project, by accepting the weight of the majority of contributions.

    Numerous social scientists, including Clay Shirky, have shown that “there is a steep decline from a few wildly active participants to a large group of barely active participants … this is the general pattern in social media. The most active participant is gener- ally much more active than the participant in the number two slot, and far more active than average. A common power-law distribution across all emerging participatory systems.”17 To the uninitiated, a large number of people barely doing anything could seem like a mark of failure. But systems can effectively account for, and capitalize on, this variation. Are there micro- tasks or one-off tasks requiring minimal effort that individuals at the bottom of the distribution curve can successfully complete? Are there large-scale, more ambitious tasks that the top users can tackle to more effectively channel their extreme enthusiasm for the project? Crucially, all levels of participants are needed, not just the peak users. Those all-stars are performing for the barely active users, and enjoying the experience of leading the moderately active users. In this way, the community resembles a pyramid of participation, which is a term first coined by game company 42 Entertainment and now frequently used by many online game designers to describe their participation models.18 Emotionally, the base of the pyramid actively supports the top, even if they are making far fewer concrete contributions. But effectively, the peak supports the entire community and the larger goals of the project, by accepting the weight of the majority of contributions.

    One clear lesson for developers of participatory systems, of course, is to design feel-good tasks that can be accomplished quickly and easily. It is less important at the onset to make some- thing interesting or challenging than it is to make something easy. Stanford researcher BJ Fogg backs this theory up in his work on a “Behavior Change Framework,” a theoretical framework that is designed to explain how to use technologies to get someone to actually do or contribute something. “You can either give people more ability by training, education, or tools—but none of these is easy. Or you can make the target behavior simpler—the right first step.”14 In the economy of engagement, the fastest way to turn attention to action may be to provide the user with a single, simple, feel-good task. Similarly, as Castranova notes, participation mechanics should be “minimally conceived and exquisitely polished.”15

    Numerous social scientists, including Clay Shirky, have shown that “there is a steep decline from a few wildly active participants to a large group of barely active participants … this is the general pattern in social media. The most active participant is gener- ally much more active than the participant in the number two slot, and far more active than average. A common power-law distribution across all emerging participatory systems.”17 To the uninitiated, a large number of people barely doing anything could seem like a mark of failure. But systems can effectively account for, and capitalize on, this variation. Are there micro- tasks or one-off tasks requiring minimal effort that individuals at the bottom of the distribution curve can successfully complete? Are there large-scale, more ambitious tasks that the top users can tackle to more effectively channel their extreme enthusiasm for the project? Crucially, all levels of participants are needed, not just the peak users. Those all-stars are performing for the barely active users, and enjoying the experience of leading the moderately active users. In this way, the community resembles a pyramid of participation, which is a term first coined by game company 42 Entertainment and now frequently used by many online game designers to describe their participation models.18 Emotionally, the base of the pyramid actively supports the top, even if they are making far fewer concrete contributions. But effectively, the peak supports the entire community and the larger goals of the project, by accepting the weight of the majority of contributions.

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    Dr. Bob Johansen at UT Austin 11 05 09 - Presentation Transcript

    1. LEADERS MAKE THE FUTUREThinking Globally—10 Years Ahead
      Bob Johansen
      The University of Texas at Austin
      McCombs School of Business
      November, 2009
      © 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1235
    2. 2
    3. VIRTUAL LAYER ON THE PHYSICAL WORLD
    4. 4
    5. video will be the medium of choice
      5
    7. video will be a part of almost every brand strategy
    8. video technologies will transform the inert surfaces to interactive venues…anything can be a display
    9. 9
    10. 10
    13. amateur videos will mix (even more) with broadcast media
    14. griefing will be (much more) a part of everyday life
    15. from passive individual viewing to interactive engagement
    16. if you are 25 or less, the definition of a “generation” is about 6 years…the younger you are, the better your video literacy
    17. Jump to Prezi Future of Video Presentation Here?
    18. To be successful in the future, here are some qualities and skills that leaders will need to learn…
      18
    19. The VUCA World of LeadershipVolatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous
      19
    20. 20
    21. 21
    22. 22
    23. 23
    24. THE BOOK OF PROVOCATION|faith in the future|conversations
    25. 1964 World’s Fair Futurama
      1939 World’s Fair Futurama
      25
    26. 26
      The word “consumer” is obsolete…
    27. 27
      How do you turn attention into participation?
    28. 28
    29. 29
      Power Laws and the Pyramid of Participation
      ENGAGEMENT ECONOMY
      “The most active participant is generally much more active than the participant in the number two slot, and far more active than average. A common power-law distribution across all emerging participatory systems.”-Clay Shirky, NYU
    30. 30
      Behavior Change Framework
      ENGAGEMENT ECONOMY
    31. 31
      CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING
      • think of products
      as stories
      • engage and react,
      but don’t exploit
      • become quietly
      transparent
      • you can’t control
      the conversation
      31
    32. INSTRUCTABLES: a brand that is a community of prototypers
    33. 33
      CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING
    34. 34
      CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING
    35. 35
      CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING
    36. 36
    37. Dilemmas…Leaders LIKE the space betweenjudging too soonanddeciding too late
    38. 38
    39. SENSORS AND WIRELESS WILL BE EVERYWHERE
    40. Foundations:universally available mobile computing devices
      2009: voice and text
      < 2019: smartphone world computer
      voice, video, web, GPS, sensors
    41. 41
      PROGRAMMABLE SOCIAL NETWORKS
    42. 42
      PROGRAMMABLE SOCIAL NETWORKS
    43. Superstruct
      Su`per*struct", v. t. [L. superstructus, p. p. of superstruere to build upon; super over + struere to build. See Super-, and Structure.] To build (grow) over or upon another structure (life form); to erect (plant) upon a foundation (ecology)…
      Challenge for leaders:
      to superstruct in the clouds…
      43
    44. Anything that’s happening somewhere else on the net—beyond your device.
      “The network is the computer” will finally come true within the next 10 years.
      Cloud Computing:
    45. Networks that get better the more people who use them.
      “If you try for just the cream, you will get nothing.”
      Cloud Computing:
    46. Recognition (patterns)
      Mining (matching and curating patterns)
      Synthesis (new models, simulations, renderings)
      Cloud Computing:
    47. The leading organizations will be highly interconnected thru global cloud computing. The more connections and combinations, the more innovation and the more potential value.
      HYPOTHESIS:
    48. Superstructing tends to reject traditional forms of security and boundary-based protections…reciprocity is the currency of the cloud.
      HYPOTHESIS:
    49. Superstructing is an inherently creative endeavor that emphasizes design, connections, and combinations.
      “Combinatorial innovation”
      Will Dunbar’s Number increase?
      hypothesis:
      HYPOTHESIS:
    50. HYPOTHESIS:
      Superstructing the cloud will be the biggest innovation opportunity in history.
      hypothesis:
    53. CHINESE LANGUAGE INTERNET
      Tuangous will challenge traditional models of marketing, advertising, and selling
    54. 54
    58. Extreme groups tend to be very skilled users of digital media
      Extreme uncertainty will lead to more extreme groups
      Dilemma: the more a brand tries to look and feel trustworthy, the more suspicious some consumers will become
      Some will say about brands: “the nicer they are, the worse they are”
    61. The Global Health Economy
      Cosmetics
      Fashion
      TraditionalHealthcare
      Food andsupplements
      Retail
      Security
      Buildingsupplies
      Wellness
      Financialservices
      Consumerelectronics
      Information
    64. personal health ecology
      Source: Institute for the Future
    65. 65
      Signal:mobile health tools, anytime anyplace…
    66. 66
    69. 69
    70. 70
    71. The Global Health Economy Includes Sustainability
      Cosmetics
      Fashion
      TraditionalHealthcare
      Food andsupplements
      Retail
      Security
      Buildingsupplies
      Wellness
      Financialservices
      Consumerelectronics
      Information
    73. Fast Cycles of Innovation Through SHOPPER PROTOTPYING
    74. 74
    75. 75
    76. 76
    77. 77
    78. 78
    79. 79
    80. 80
    82. commons
    83. commons:
      a resource held and managed bythose who use it
    84. traditional commons:
      geographically bounded
    85. traditional commons:
      subject to depletion
    86. from traditional commons
      to new commons
    87. 87
    88. New commons:
      Leverage small resources in the wider world
      More people means more value
      Build relationships with stakeholders in good times—not just in response to crises.
    89. New commons example:
    90. New commons example:
      A resource created and maintainedby those who use it
    91. New commons example:
      Intangible plus material value
    92. What if you wanted to …
      … rethink the debate of public vs. private funding of health care?
    94. What if you wanted to…
      … transform unhealthy behaviors into healthy behaviors?
    95. Waiting for image from Kelly Traver
    96. New Commons: checklist for success
      Evolvability: give everyone freedom to make improvements
      Scale: take advantage of everyone’s contribution
      Relevance: offer ambient information to visitors
      Abundance: reverse scarcity through use of social capital
      Adaptive emotions: harness awe and wonder
      Optimism: amplify hope
      … and make it FUN!
    98. Live long by looking long.
      —Tao Te Ching
      98
    99. 99
    100. LEADERS MAKE THE FUTUREThinking Globally—10 Years Ahead
      Bob Johansen
      The University of Texas at Austin
      McCombs School of Business
      November, 2009
      © 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1235
    101. New commons:
      Geographically agnostic, but community still counts
    102. New commons:
      Not depletable, but ratherincreasing returns
    103. What if you wanted to …
      … accelerate the growth of medical knowledge?
    105. IBM Corporate Service Corps
      Immersion in strategic emerging markets
      Work at the intersection of business, technology and society
      Global teaming and leadership development
      Exposure to diverse cultures
      Outside the traditional office
      Problem-solving in a challenging, ambiguous environment
      Members of IBM CSC Ghana Team 1 in Kumasi, Ghana
      (July–Aug 2008)
    106. 106
    107. Innovating innovation
      INNOVATION STRUCTURE:
      • From closed IP to open innovation
      • From innovation centers to innovation non-centers
      • From siloed expertsto transdisciplinarians
      INNOVATION STRATEGY:
      • From competition to coopetition
      • From secrecy to quiet transparency
      • From big breakthroughs to combinatorial innovations
      107
    108. 108
      The VUCA World
      Training and education = success
    109. 109
    110. 110
    111. 2009 Ten-Year Forecast
      Superstructing the Decade
      Kathi VianDirector, Ten-Year Forecast
      Institute for the Future
      Ten-Year Forecast Annual Retreat
      April 20–21, 2009
      © 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1229
    112. 112
    113. 113
    114. 114
    115. 115
    116. 116
      PROGRAMMABLE SOCIAL NETWORKS

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