Choosing Priorities for Ensuring the Future of Utah (12/8/08)

Choosing Priorities for Ensuring the Future of Utah December 11, 2008 Salt Lake City, Utah

WHY EDUCATION MATTERS
Education as a key ingredient:
slide

Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength slide AL AZ AR CA CO CT DE IL IN IA KY LA MD MA MS NJ NY ND OK OR SC SD UT VA WA MN NH TN TX WV WI WY $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Personal Income Per Capita, 2000 Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher MT HI AK GA KS ME NE NV NC OH PA VT ID MI MO NM RI FL US Low Income, High Educational Attainment Low Income, Low Educational Attainment High Income, High Educational Attainment High Income, Low Educational Attainment State New Economy Index (2002) Top Tier Middle Tier Low Tier

Educational Attainment and Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey AK AR DE GA HI IL IN IA KS LA ME MD MA MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD VT VA WA US AL CA CO CT FL ID KY MI MN MS MO NH NM TN TX UT WV WI WY $15,000 $22,000 $29,000 $36,000 $43,000 $50,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 AZ Personal Income Per Capita Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees 1980 Correlation = 0.64

Educational Attainment and Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey AK AR DE GA HI IL IN IA KS LA ME MD MA MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD VT VA WA US AL CA CO CT FL ID KY MI MN MS MO NH NM TN TX UT WV WI WY $15,000 $22,000 $29,000 $36,000 $43,000 $50,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 AZ 1990 Personal Income Per Capita Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees Correlation = 0.76

Educational Attainment and Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey PA AK AR DE GA HI IL IN IA KS LA ME MD MA MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR RI SC SD VT VA WA US AL CA CO CT FL ID KY MI MN MS MO NH NM TN TX UT WV WI $15,000 $22,000 $29,000 $36,000 $43,000 $50,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 AZ 2000 Personal Income Per Capita Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees Correlation = 0.80 WY

Educational Attainment and Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey NM NC AK AZ AR DE GA HI IL IN IA KS LA ME MD MA MT NE NV NJ NY ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD VT VA WA US AL CA CO CT FL ID KY MI MN MS MO NH TN TX UT WV WI WY $15,000 $22,000 $29,000 $36,000 $43,000 $50,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 Personal Income Per Capita Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees Correlation = 0.83

Increasing Levels of Educational Attainment Lead to Improved Societal Outcomes
Increased levels of workforce participation
Decreased rates of incarceration
Improved health outcomes
Reduced participation in Medicaid and other social service programs
Greater participation in artistic, cultural, and civic pursuits
Higher levels of volunteerism & societal engagement
slide

UTAH’S STRENGTHS slide

Percent Change in Gross State Product, 1997-2007 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce slide

Gross Domestic Product – Percent Change 1997-2007 slide … 258 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Utah United States

Population Projections - Percent Change, 2000-25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau slide 85.8 93.3 -3.3

Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2006 slide Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Utah Rankings on Key New Economy Scales slide Overall Ranking 12 IT Professionals 19 Workforce Education 15 “ Gazelle” Jobs 17 Fastest Growing Firms 4 Entrepreneurial Activity 17 Inventor Patents 2 High Tech Jobs 10 Scientists & Engineers 20 Patents 19 Industry Investment in R&D 28 Venture Capital 5 Technology in Schools 50 Source: The 2007 State New Economy Index

Unemployment Rate – US vs. Utah September 2004 - September 2008 slide Source: US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oct. 08

Year-to-Year Employment Growth Utah, 1999-2007 slide Source: US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oct. 08

Development Report Card for the States, 2007 - Utah Source: 2007 Development Report Card for the States, CFED slide Utah Strengths (Top 10 Rankings) Utah Weaknesses (Bottom 10 Rankings) Rank Measure 41 Income from Dividends, Interest and Rent 42 Use of Alternative Energy 43 Average Annual Pay Growth 44 Change in Average Annual Pay 44 Change in Private Research and Development 45 Average Teacher Salary 48 Toxic Release Inventory 49 Business Closings 50 K-12 Education Expenditures Overall Performance B Employment Earnings & Job Quality Equity Quality of Life Resource Efficiency A C B A D Business Vitality B Competitiveness/Existing Businesses Entrepreneurial Energy D A Development Capacity A Human Resources Financial Resources Infrastructure Resources Amenity Resources & Natural Capital Innovation Assets C C A B B Rank Measure 1 Charitable Giving 1 Electronic Public Services 2 Industrial Diversity 4 Change in Toxic Release Inventory 4 Initial Public Offerings 5 Employment Growth: Long Term 5 Business Created via University R&D 5 Employment Growth: Short Term 5 Infant Mortality 5 Heart Disease 5 High School Attainment 6 Venture Capital Investments 6 Private Sector Layoffs 7 SBIC Financing 7 Royalties and Licenses 8 New Companies 8 Conversion of Cropland to Other Uses 8 Bridge Deficiency 9 Income Distribution 9 Energy Costs 10 Graduate Students in Science and Engineering 10 Poverty Rate

Slide In comparison to most other US states, Utah is doing extraordinarily well. But the World, not the U.S., is the new basis of comparison. In this context, Utah still has work to do.

SOME PROBLEMS CONFRONTING UTAH slide

Maintaining a Globally Competitive Workforce
slide

Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults—U.S. & OECD Countries, 2006 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2008 slide

Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults - U.S., 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (ACS) slide

Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group - Utah, U.S. & Leading OECD Countries Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008 slide

Educational Attainment and Rank Among States Utah, 2006 (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS 10 th 15 th 9 th 19 th 24 th

Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64, 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) slide

The Goal: Utah Reaching International Competitiveness by 2025 55% of Population Age 25-64 with College Degrees slide

Reaching Top Performance by 2025 (55%), Utah 796,591 Number of Individuals to Match Best-Performing Countries (55%) 276,707 Number of Individuals (Age 25-44) Who Already Have Degrees 519,884 Additional Production Needed (2005 to 2025) 614,280 Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production slide

Educational Attainment in Utah(%) slide Current, in 2025 with Current Degree Production, and Best-Performing Countries in 2025

DEALING WITH A MORE DIVERSE POPULATION slide

Population Distribution by Age Group, Estimated 2007 & Projected 2025 slide Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State Population Estimates and Projections.

Projected Change in Utah Population by Age & Race/Ethnicity, 2005-25 (in Thousands) Source: U.S. Census Bureau slide 232,040

Utah Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity, 1991-2005 (actual) and 2006-2022 (projected) slide Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), 2007

Percent Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64 By Race/Ethnicity - Utah, 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS PUMS slide

Utah Net Migration of Residents Age 22-64 by Race & Level of Education, 2006 slide Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS PUMS

Difference in High School Attainment Between Whites and Minorities,* 2006 slide * Minorities include African-American, Hispanic, and Native American Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS PUMS Vermont

Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities,* 2006 slide * Minorities include African-American, Hispanic, and Native American Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS (PUMS) Vermont

Creating a Sufficient Number of High Wage Jobs to Effectively Utilize the Skills of the Population
slide

Percent of Civilian Population Age 25-64 Participating in the Workforce, 2005 slide Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Not in the Workforce, 2006 listed by Education Attainment Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS PUMS slide Utah Unites States

Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average - Utah, 1960-2005 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce slide U.S. Average

Measures of Income – Utah vs. U.S. Average (2007) slide Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Median Earnings of Population Age 25-64 by Level of Education, 2005 slide Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS

Median Annual Earnings of Full-Time Workers with No College Degree by Occupational Category (2007) Sources: U.S. American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Median Annual Earnings of Full-Time Workers with College Degrees by Occupational Category (2007) Sources: U.S. American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Percent of Employees Working Less than Full-Time by Occupational Category (2007) Sources: U.S. American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Percentage of Full-Time Employees with Earnings in the U.S. Quartiles (2006) Indiana Alaska Arizona Utah Georgia Florida Missouri Oregon Kansas Vermont Wyoming Iowa North Carolina Nebraska Texas Kentucky Maine Tennessee South Carolina Alabama Louisiana West Virginia North Dakota Idaho New Mexico Oklahoma Arkansas South Dakota Mississippi Montana Difference Between the Percentage in the U.S. Upper Quartile and U.S. Lower Quartile Source: 2006 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Occupations with Most Average Annual Openings, from 2006-2016, Some College or Associate Degree Required, Utah slide Sources: Utah Department of Workforce Services, June 2008. http://jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/outlooks/state/index.html.

Occupations with Most Average Annual Openings, from 2006-2016, Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Required, Utah slide Sources: Utah Department of Workforce Services, June 2008. http://jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/outlooks/state/index.html. Growth Replacement

Utah Supply Gap in High Demand Occupations (Average Annual Openings Less Average Annual Postsecondary Awards) Demand exceeds supply Supply exceeds demand slide Graphic & Industrial Designers Accountants, Auditors Registered Nurses Elementary Teachers Nursing Aides Middle & High Sch. Teachers Hairstylists, Skin Care , Manicur… Gen. & Ops Mgrs, Mgmt Analysts, CEOs… … -1,227 Sources: Utah Department of Workforce Services, June 2008. http://jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/outlooks/state/index.html. NCES, IPEDS 2005-2007 Completions Files; c2005_a and c2006_a Final Release Data Files, c2007a Early Release Data File.

Percentage of Degrees and Certificates Awarded in STEM Fields (2006-07) Sources: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey

Preparation slide Source: Measuring Up 2008, www.highereducation.org Utah Top States Early 1990s* 2008 High School Completion (25%) 18- to 24-year-olds with a high school credential 94% 91% 95% K-12 Course Taking (30%) 9th to 12th graders taking at least one upper-level math course 45% 69% 64% 9th to 12th graders taking at least one upper-level science course 20% 29% 46% 8th grade students taking algebra n/a 47% 47% K-12 Student Achievement (35 % ) 8th graders scoring at or above "proficient" on the national assessment exam in math 22% 32% 41% 8th graders scoring at or above "proficient" on the national assessment exam in reading 31% 30% 39% 8th graders scoring at or above "proficient" on the national assessment exam in science 32% 33% 41% 8th graders scoring at or above "proficient" on the national assessment exam in writing 21% 31% 46% Low-income 8th graders scoring at or above "proficient" on the national assessment exam in math 17% 19% 24% Number of scores in the top 20% nationally on SAT/ACT college entrance exam per 1,000 high school graduates 142 201 265 Number of scores that are 3 or higher on an Advanced Placement subject test per 1,000 high school juniors and seniors 155 166 237 Teacher Quality (10%) 7th to 12th graders taught by teachers with a major in their subject n/a 77% 83% *The indicators report data beginning in the early 1990s or the closest year for which reliable data are available. See the Technical Guide for Measuring Up 2008.

ENSURING THE SUCCESS OF ALL REGIONS OF UTAH slide

Utah County Population Estimates (2007) Source: U.S. Census Bureau County Population Estimates; http://www.census.gov/popest/datasets.html 1,009,518 483,702

Utah County Projected Population Growth, 2010-2030 Source: State of Utah, Governor's Office of Planning and Budget, 2008 Baseline Projections, http://www.governor.utah.gov/dea/projections.html

Percent Urban Population by State, 2000 slide Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Census

Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Utah (State) = 27.4 Summit (High County) = 46.8 Juab (Low County) = 11.6

Per Capita Personal Income, 2006 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Utah (State) = $29,406 Summit (High County) = $57,725 San Juan (Low County) = $16,569

Percent of First-Time Freshman by County of Origin and County of USHE Institution Attended, Fall 2008 slide

USHE First-Time Freshman Participation Rate by County of Origin, Fall 2008 slide *First time freshmen divided by 18-24 year olds

Counties from Which Dixie State College Receives 80% of its First-time Freshman Enrollments, Fall 2008 Source: Utah System of Higher Education

Counties from Which University of Utah Receives 80% of its First-time Freshman Enrollments, Fall 2008 Source: Utah System of Higher Education

Counties from Which College of Eastern Utah Receives 80% of its First-time Freshman Enrollments, Fall 2008 Source: Utah System of Higher Education

Counties from Which Utah State University Receives 80% of its First-time Freshman Enrollments, Fall 2008 Source: Utah System of Higher Education

Counties from Which Southern Utah University Receives 80% of its First-time Freshman Enrollments, Fall 2008 Source: Utah System of Higher Education

Counties from Which Snow College Receives 80% of its First-time Freshman Enrollments, Fall 2008 Source: Utah System of Higher Education

Counties from Which Weber State University Receives 80% of its First-time Freshman Enrollments, Fall 2008 Source: Utah System of Higher Education

Counties from Which Utah Valley University Receives 80% of its First-time Freshman Enrollments, Fall 2008 Source: Utah System of Higher Education

Counties from Which Salt Lake Community College Receives 80% of its First-time Freshman Enrollments, Fall 2008 Source: Utah System of Higher Education

Counties from Which Brigham Young University Receives 80% of its First-time Freshman Enrollments, Fall 2008 Source: Utah System of Higher Education

MOVING FROM GOOD TO GREAT IN EDUCATION slide

Utah Report Card, Measuring Up 2008 slide Performance Category 2008 Grade Change Over Time Preparation B Participation B- Affordability F Completion B+ Benefits B Learning I

Change Over Time Key Indicators Utah Report Card, Measuring Up 2008 slide

Change Over Time Key Indicators Utah Report Card, Measuring Up 2008 (continued) slide

Public High School Graduation Rate – Percent of 9 th Graders Graduating Four Years Later by State (2006) Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core Data slide

College-Going Rates—First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2004 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (2004 data update 02-06-07) slide

Percent of First-Time Students Not Directly Out of High School, Public 2-Year Sector, Fall 2006 slide Source: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2006 Residency and Migration File; ef2006c Final Release Data File Downloaded 07-10-08. New Hampshire

Percent of First-Time Students Not Directly Out of High School, Public 4-Year Sector, Fall 2006 slide Source: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2006 Residency and Migration File; ef2006c Final Release Data File Downloaded 07-10-08.

College Participation Rates by State for Students from Low-Income Families, 2006 slide Source: Postsecondary Education Opportunity #188 , February 2008

Change in College Participation Rates for Students from Low-Income Families by State, 1999-2006 Source: Postsecondary Education Opportunity #188 , February 2008 slide North Carolina Georgia Tennessee Mississippi Ohio Alabama Texas South Carolina Kentucky Colorado Missouri Michigan Louisiana Florida Alaska New Mexico Arkansas Oklahoma Utah Connecticut United States Nebraska Arizona West Virginia Washington California Illinois Idaho Virginia Oregon Kansas Hawaii Wisconsin Maryland Minnesota Indiana South Dakota Iowa Maine New York Wyoming Nevada Montana Massachusetts Pennsylvania Rhode Island New Jersey North Dakota Delaware Vermont New Hampshire

Utah Net Migration of First-time College Students by Sector (Fall 2006) slide Source: NCHEMS NCES IPEDS Enrollment Survey, Part C, Fall 2006 Private for-profit, 4-year … 4413 … 3068

Associate Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2004 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE slide

Three-Year Graduation Rates at TwoYear Colleges, 2005 (Percent) slide Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2004 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE slide

Six-Year Graduation Rates at FourYear Colleges, 2005 (Percent) Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey slide

Undergraduate Credentials & Degrees Awarded at All Colleges per 1,000 Adults Age 18-44 with No College Degree, 2006 slide Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey 2005-06; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS 58.7 14.7 33.5 48.7 United States Utah

Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded at All Colleges per 1,000 Adults Age 18-44 with No College Degree, 2006 slide Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey 2005-06; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Associate Degrees Awarded at All Colleges per 1,000 Adults Age 18-44 with No College Degree, 2006 slide Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey 2005-06; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Certificates & Diplomas Awarded at All Colleges per 1,000 Adults Age 18-44 with No College Degree, 2006 slide Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey 2005-06; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

THE FINANCIAL ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGHER EDUCATION IN UTAH slide

State Tax Capacity & Effort Utah Indexed to U.S. Average Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) slide U.S. Average

State Tax Capacity & Effort Utah Indexed to U.S. Average Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) slide AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE GA HI IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MS MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK PA RI SC SD UT VT VA WA FL ID MI MN MO NH NM TN TX WV WI WY 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 State Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita) State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate) US OR

Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2013 slide Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005 New Hampshire Delaware New Jersey Maine Maryland Massachusetts Wisconsin Vermont Ohio North Dakota Connecticut Kansas Arkansas Virginia Nebraska Oklahoma Minnesota Colorado West Virginia Kentucky Michigan Arizona New York Georgia Hawaii Illinois Pennsylvania Alaska Rhode Island Montana Utah New Mexico California Iowa Indiana North Carolina Florida Idaho South Carolina South Dakota Missouri Oregon Texas Nevada Tennessee Mississippi Louisiana Alabama Wyoming Washington United States

State & Family Share of Funding for Public Higher Education, 1991 – 2007, Utah Source: NCPPHE, Measuring Up: The State-by-State Report Card for Higher Education slide State Share Family Share

Percentage of Income Needed to Pay for College at Public Two- & Four-Year Institutions, 2000-2008 Utah United States Public Two-Year Public Four-Year Source: NCPPHE, Measuring Up: The State-by-State Report Card for Higher Education slide

Share of Income that the Poorest Families Need to Pay for Tuition at the Lowest Priced Colleges Source: NCPPHE, Measuring Up: The State-by-State Report Card for Higher Education slide Utah United States

Average Loan Amount Students Borrow Each Year, 2004 Source: NCPPHE, Measuring Up: The State-by-State Report Card for Higher Education slide

Proportion of Need-Based Aid Distributed to Part-Time Students 2004-05 Source: NCHEMS Student Financial Aid Survey slide No Aid to Part-Time Students

Undergraduate Credentials Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates, 2002-03 State Systems slide Performance Total Funding Per FTE 30 10 15 20 25 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE GA HI IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MS MT NE NV NJ NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SD UT VT VA WA WI US FL ID MI MN MO NH NM NY SC TN TX WV WY

Federal and Industry R&D Per Capita, 2002 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 50 100 150 200 250 Total Funding Per FTE Performance 0 AL AK AZ AR CA CO DE GA HI IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MA MS MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD UT VT VA WA WI US CT FL ID MI MN MO NH NM RI TN TX WV WY MD ($273, $12,527)

Bachelor’s Degrees as a Percent of High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2003 NH 20 40 60 80 100 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE GA HI IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MS MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD UT VT VA WA WI US FL ID MI MN MO NM TN TX WV WY Total Funding Per FTE Performance

Choosing Priorities for Ensuring the Future of Utah (12/8/08)

by HigherEdUtah on Apr 03, 2009

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Usage Rights

2 Embeds 15

Statistics

Choosing Priorities for Ensuring the Future of Utah (12/8/08) — Presentation Transcript

http://www.utahsbr.edu	13
http://www.slideshare.net	2