World Meteorological Organization Disaster Risk Reduction Programme By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme [email_address]
Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 90% of events, 70% of casualties and 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards . Economic losses Loss of life Number of events
Conclusions from 4 th International Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Increased risk of deaths and injuries by drowning in floods; Potential for movement of populations and infrastructure Likely Increased incidence of extreme high sea level Increased risk of deaths, injuries, water- and food-borne diseases; Disruption by flood and high winds; Potential for population migrations, loss of property Likely Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Increased risk of food and water shortage Likely Area affected by drought increases Increased loss of life and property due to flooding, and infectious, respiratory and skin diseases Very likely Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events Increased risk of heat-related mortality Very likely Increased frequency of heat waves Major projected impacts Likelihood Phenomenon
Disaster Risk Reduction Strategic Foundation WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2011 Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 WMO Strategic Goals in Disaster Risk Reduction
WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Strategic Goals <ul><li>Analyzing and providing hazard information for risk assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Strengthening and sustainability of multi-hazard early warning systems </li></ul><ul><li>Delivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts -- driven by user requirements </li></ul><ul><li>Strengthening WMO/National Meteorological and Hydrological Services cooperation and partnerships with disaster risk reduction organizations </li></ul><ul><li>Public outreach campaigns </li></ul>Implemented through national and regional development projects leveraging WMO and partners’ resources/expertise.
WMO Action Plan in Context of Disaster Risk Management Framework Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 Risk Transfer Risk Identification Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk quantification PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems, emergency planning and response capacities MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure) CAT insurance & bonds Weather Risk Management Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation 1 2 3
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment <ul><li>Standardization of input into probabilistic risk modeling …. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forward looking hazard trend analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Probabilitic climate models </li></ul></ul></ul>
What is an Effective EarlyWarning System? Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health (etc.) COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES feedback feedback Community Preparedness warnings National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms warnings feedback warnings preventive actions 1 2 3 4 5 5 3 3 5
Examples of Effective Early Warning Systems Warning Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 France Vigilance System Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Shanghai City: Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Emergency Response Programme Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets <ul><li>Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data </li></ul><ul><li>Data quality assurance , filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasts for management of risk portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>Technical support and service delivery </li></ul>
Cooperation projects with partner agencies <ul><li>Partnership pilot projects focusing on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>National Meteorological and Hydrological Services modernization, technical capacity development and regional cooperation, early warning systems, partnership and delivery of services to disaster risk management users (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>South eastern Europe (8 countries) (Funded by EC) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Other regions: Asia (being initiated) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>End-to-end Early Warning System Partnership Project proposals being considered for funding </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Central America (3 countries) engaging RA IV and Hurricane Committee </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Partners: (IFRC, World Bank, UNDP, NOAA) also multi-agency at national levels </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ Climate risk management and sustainable development” in Africa WMO / WorldBank Project (funded by World Bank Global facility for DRR) (10 countries in Africa) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need to expand this initiative to other regions </li></ul></ul>
Disaster Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems Partnership Pilot Projects 2007 2009 2008 2010 2011 RA I RA II RA III RA IV RA V RA VI SWFDP/ South and Southeast / Flash Flood Guidance End-to-end MHEWS Shanghai Multi Hazard-EWS DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) Multi Hazard – EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC)
For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters Thank You
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