Including Children in Policy Responses to Economic Crisis :<br />Lessons from Past Policies for a Sustainable Future<br />
Impacts of Economic Crisis on Children<br />Identifying range of impacts<br />Identifying factors that make a difference i...
in the majority of policy contexts child wellbeing is for the most part treated as a benign issue, with children remaining...
Progress on child wellbeing, is not inevitable, even with economic growth<br />In many developed countries, child poverty ...
Retrospective Studies<br />Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998 (the impacts of which on household poverty have been extens...
Predictions for current crisis:approximately 30,000–50,000 excess infant deaths in Africa  in 2009 and especially girls.FA...
Trends in undernourishment and projections for 2009<br />
Effect on undernourishment<br />
Primary school completion and child mortality<br />
Mexico – infant mortality increased from 5-7% 1995-6 (fell again after 1997)<br />Ethiopia – increase in cereal prices of ...
But Some Children Protected<br />In East Asia child mortality rates protected and downward trends in child malnutrition co...
Financial Crisis - General<br />General regional and international macro-economic health<br />General regional and interna...
Trade level by sector<br />Source: World Bank (2009)<br />
Remittance flows - LA<br />
Changing Employment Patterns<br />
Unemployment Current Crisis:<br /> ILO predicted unemployment rising to 8.5% in 2009 with an additional 28 million more vu...
Characteristics of unemployment<br />In all regions, unemployment rose, often significantly and patterned by age, gender, ...
Unemployment Characteristics<br />Young people very much affected: In Thailand - persons aged below 30 (one-third of the l...
Unemployment forecasts for select MENA countries<br />
Financial Crisis - General<br />General regional and international macro-economic health<br />General regional and interna...
Micro impacts<br />Gender relations change – a shift in the locus of power<br />Migrants are returning home – some unemplo...
El Salvador:  Mean School Attendance for 10-16 Year Olds, 2005-2008, July-December (Duryea and Morales, forthcoming)<br />...
Political Economy Dynamics<br />These shaped the reform process – both how deep the crisis was felt and how quickly and ef...
Turning crisis to opportunity<br />Civil society and social movements clearly had an important role<br />Even in less cond...
Social Protection and Aid<br />International bailout loan packages – important to immediate crisis response <br />Aid poli...
Basic services and/or social protection<br />A clear cleavage in crisis response debates is investment in basic services –...
Current crisis – protecting services<br />The extent to which investments in basic services are being protected varies con...
   Attention to social protection remains one of the key features of successful policy responses – but we can and should d...
Summary of Cash Transfer Program <br />Responses, 2008-09<br />
Social Protection – education, health and nutrition<br />Pre-existing social protection systems and tailored crisis-specif...
Social Protection decisive in mitigating impacts but neglects child protection, nurture and care<br />
In Conclusion:<br />
Data: timely, systematic, age and gender disaggregated: social vulnerabilities – mental health, gender based violence, red...
Fiscal Space: counter cyclical spending; protect social services with social protection synergies.<br />
Social protection plus: child focused social protection; social vulnerabilities - gender based violence; trafficking; Soci...
Political Economy and Aid:Accountability and spaces for civil societyDonor awareness: cross donor working group on child r...
Safeguarding and progressing children’s rights<br />Turning Crisis into Opportunity for Children – the Human Face of the F...
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Impacto de la crisis sobre la infancia - Caroline Harper

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Ponencia presentada por Caroline Harper, investigadora del Programa de Desarrollo Social, Infancia y Género en el Overseas Development Institute de Londres, durante las jornadas Infancia y Objetivos del Milenio: propuestas y retos para la cooperación internacional, organizadas por UNICEF España, Casa de América, Casa Asia y Casa África, los días 24 y 25 de marzo de 2010.

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  • Photo credit: Jeff Knezovich, ODI: http://www.flickr.com/knezovjb
  • UNICEF – Ami Vitale
  • UNICEF – Ami Vitale
  • UNICEF – Ami Vitale
  • UNICEF – Ami Vitale
  • UNICEF – Ami Vitale
  • Transcript of "Impacto de la crisis sobre la infancia - Caroline Harper"

    1. 1. Including Children in Policy Responses to Economic Crisis :<br />Lessons from Past Policies for a Sustainable Future<br />
    2. 2. Impacts of Economic Crisis on Children<br />Identifying range of impacts<br />Identifying factors that make a difference in resumption of social progress<br />Identifying whether children can meanwhile be protected.<br />Proposing what we can do to enhance our response<br />Not least suggesting that child advocates are obliged to tackle this problem by engaging with the debates on economic crisis. <br />
    3. 3. in the majority of policy contexts child wellbeing is for the most part treated as a benign issue, with children remaining largely politically invisible and discussion of their interests on the whole confined to sector-specific and welfare-oriented debates. <br />
    4. 4. Progress on child wellbeing, is not inevitable, even with economic growth<br />In many developed countries, child poverty rates remain worryingly high, especially considering their levels of economic prosperity. <br />Take the USA. <br />In 1979 child poverty stood at 16.2%, <br />reached a peak of 22% in 1993 <br />and was still 18% in 2007 (NCCP)<br />Child poverty is:<br />multi-dimensional, dynamic over the life-course, dependent on relationships and subject to a particular depth of voicelessness<br />
    5. 5. Retrospective Studies<br />Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998 (the impacts of which on household poverty have been extensively studied); <br />The experience of transition in former Soviet Republics in the early 1990s; <br />Currency crises in Mexico (1995) and Argentina (2002); <br />African experiences with agricultural and oil price fluctuations.<br />
    6. 6. Predictions for current crisis:approximately 30,000–50,000 excess infant deaths in Africa in 2009 and especially girls.FAO (2009) projects that undernourishment will grow by 8% in LACIn Asia if unaddressed (UNICEF): increases in rates of maternal anaemia by 10%–20% and prevalence of low birth weight by 5%–10%, while rates of childhood stunting could increase by 3%–7% and wasting by 8%–16%. <br />
    7. 7. Trends in undernourishment and projections for 2009<br />
    8. 8. Effect on undernourishment<br />
    9. 9. Primary school completion and child mortality<br />
    10. 10. Mexico – infant mortality increased from 5-7% 1995-6 (fell again after 1997)<br />Ethiopia – increase in cereal prices of 25% - increases child malnutrition by 3-4%<br />Demographic health surveys in 59 countries highlight negative association between changes in GDP and infant mortality<br />Poorer CIS countries - basic school enrolment rates declined 10% to 15% in early 1990s - Seven countries still at risk of not meeting MDG 1<br />in Kazakhstan, pre-school enrollment fell from over 50% to 12%, from best in central Asia or the Caucasus to among the worst<br />Increases in proportion of young children left home alone across regions<br />Increased participation in work force in Mexico<br />In East Asia numbers of children living on the streets increased in Indonesia and Thailand – at risk re sex work, drug use and crime (ADB, 2006; Knowles et al., 1999; Suharto, 2007). <br />Increase in child abandonment and numbers of children taken into care in all four countries (East Asia)(ADB, 2000; Kim, 2004).<br />
    11. 11. But Some Children Protected<br />In East Asia child mortality rates protected and downward trends in child malnutrition continued<br />Impacts on education in Latin America - minimal. <br />Mexico - school attendance rates for children of both sexes were unchanged and increased for some age groups. <br />Both male and female children aged 15–18 had higher school attendance rates in 1996 than in 1994. <br />People protected education consumption and State did to an extent.<br />
    12. 12. Financial Crisis - General<br />General regional and international macro-economic health<br />General regional and international macro-economic health<br />Dimensions of the macro-economic environment <br />Remittances<br />Financial <br />flows<br />Trade and prices <br />(commodities <br />and services) <br />Aid<br />Exchange Rates<br />Fiscal space<br />Rising <br />unemployment, <br />under-employment, <br />declining working <br />conditions<br />Declining investment <br />in public services <br />(education, health, nutrition, <br />water and sanitation, housing,<br />protection, care)<br />Meso-level effects of the financial crisis<br />Reduced access to <br />credit<br />Declining social capital; rising social violence<br />Civil society policy advocacy + service provision <br />Policy responses <br />(Fiscal stimulus, trade policy, monetary policy, aid policy<br />pre-existing and crisis-response investment in basic services, <br />pre-existing social protection infrastructure and crisis-specific measures, <br />labour policy)<br />Political economy dynamics <br />Policy responses<br />Household <br />consumption <br />(food and services, <br />both quantity<br /> and quality)<br />Protection <br />(physical<br /> and emotional)<br />& promotion <br />of well-being <br />Household <br />management <br />of assets <br />and investments<br />Household <br />labour<br />allocation<br />Reproduction, <br />nurture, and <br />care <br />Contribution to <br />community life<br />Functions of the household<br />Intra-household dynamics & household composition<br />Child-specific vulnerabilities <br />Deprivations of rights to survival, development, protection, participation <br />
    13. 13. Trade level by sector<br />Source: World Bank (2009)<br />
    14. 14. Remittance flows - LA<br />
    15. 15. Changing Employment Patterns<br />
    16. 16. Unemployment Current Crisis:<br /> ILO predicted unemployment rising to 8.5% in 2009 with an additional 28 million more vulnerable jobs in Africa alone. <br />Effects on export industries in the first instance Bangladesh, China, Vietnam to name a few.<br />
    17. 17. Characteristics of unemployment<br />In all regions, unemployment rose, often significantly and patterned by age, gender, ethnicity and location:<br />Indonesia from 1.5% in 1996 – 5.6% in 1998<br />Argentina – 12.5% rise in unemployment in 2000<br />women’s greater employment in flexible and casual labour, specific affected sectors and their reproductive work made them more vulnerable<br />in Korea there were particularly high levels of job losses in clerical work (-18.4%)<br />In Kyrgyzstan, the unemployment rate among women in the mid 2000s was one and a half times that of men<br />
    18. 18. Unemployment Characteristics<br />Young people very much affected: In Thailand - persons aged below 30 (one-third of the labour force) accounted for 60% of the increase in unemployment, whereas those over 50 experienced little increase in unemployment<br />In 2003, urban young people aged under 30 made up 13% of Kyrgyzstan’s total labor force, but one-quarter of all unemployed people <br />Youth unemployment rates in CIS region are (2006) 31%, and a relaxed definition, including discouraged youth, 41%<br />Mean age of first birth is 22–23 years in Russia – implications for children’s early years in poverty<br />Other specific characteristics: rise in informal sector employment; spatial effects, labour migration<br /> Much of this in a context where there was a drop in value of real wages, inflation and steep food or other commodity price hikes<br />
    19. 19. Unemployment forecasts for select MENA countries<br />
    20. 20. Financial Crisis - General<br />General regional and international macro-economic health<br />General regional and international macro-economic health<br />Dimensions of the macro-economic environment <br />Remittances<br />Financial <br />flows<br />Trade and prices <br />(commodities <br />and services) <br />Aid<br />Exchange Rates<br />Fiscal space<br />Rising <br />unemployment, <br />under-employment, <br />declining working <br />conditions<br />Declining investment <br />in public services <br />(education, health, nutrition, <br />water and sanitation, housing,<br />protection, care)<br />Meso-level effects of the financial crisis<br />Reduced access to <br />credit<br />Declining social capital; rising social violence<br />Civil society policy advocacy + service provision <br />Policy responses <br />(Fiscal stimulus, trade policy, monetary policy, aid policy<br />pre-existing and crisis-response investment in basic services, <br />pre-existing social protection infrastructure and crisis-specific measures, <br />labour policy)<br />Political economy dynamics <br />Policy responses<br />Household <br />consumption <br />(food and services, <br />both quantity<br /> and quality)<br />Protection <br />(physical<br /> and emotional)<br />& promotion <br />of well-being <br />Household <br />management <br />of assets <br />and investments<br />Household <br />labour<br />allocation<br />Reproduction, <br />nurture, and <br />care <br />Contribution to <br />community life<br />Functions of the household<br />Intra-household dynamics & household composition<br />Child-specific vulnerabilities <br />Deprivations of rights to survival, development, protection, participation <br />
    21. 21. Micro impacts<br />Gender relations change – a shift in the locus of power<br />Migrants are returning home – some unemployed<br />Increased unemployment in general<br />Men and women are taking on two or more jobs<br />Some women are taking on paid work for the first time<br />Children are left home alone or are neglected<br />In some cases children are working and some are withdrawn from school<br />Mental ill health is on the increase<br />Domestic tension and violence increases<br />Community capacity to nurture and protect is compromised<br />
    22. 22. El Salvador: Mean School Attendance for 10-16 Year Olds, 2005-2008, July-December (Duryea and Morales, forthcoming)<br />20.0<br />87.0<br />Attendance<br />19.0<br />86.0<br />Employment<br />18.0<br />85.0<br />17.0<br />84.0<br />Percentage of Children Employed<br />Percentage of Children Attending School<br />16.0<br />83.0<br />15.0<br />82.0<br />14.0<br />81.0<br />13.0<br />80.0<br />2005<br />2006<br />2007<br />2008<br />Year<br />
    23. 23. Political Economy Dynamics<br />These shaped the reform process – both how deep the crisis was felt and how quickly and effectively governments were able to respond.<br />Malaysia – rejected austerity programme and continued to invest in social services with positive effects.<br />Mexico – creative leadership made links between equity and growth and garnered support to introduce new strategies with crisis as motivation - Progresa/Oportunidades<br />Argentina - progressive social forces included a range of society-based actors. New measures significantly influenced by participatory government-sponsored consultations Mesa de Diálogo<br />Civil society activity in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and Argentina helped shape policy responses<br />
    24. 24. Turning crisis to opportunity<br />Civil society and social movements clearly had an important role<br />Even in less conducive environments<br />In transition countries near universal child benefits decimated – but pension benefits rose in many countries during the same period<br />Attributed to the relative political weakness of child rights advocates as compared with pensioner groups<br />
    25. 25. Social Protection and Aid<br />International bailout loan packages – important to immediate crisis response <br />Aid policies played a key role in facilitating targeted social protection programmes<br />Development programme for the poorest - Malaysia – World Bank<br />Social impact mitigation programme in Thailand – World Bank, ADB, Miyazawa plan<br />Indonesia – social protection development programme -ADB<br />Mexico – Aid grew from 96.55 million in 1989 – 424 million in 1994 – including support to social safety nets<br />Kyrgyzstan a model for comprehensive dev framework, PRSPs and rewarded with significant aid flows<br />Less attention paid to child specific social protection measures<br />
    26. 26. Basic services and/or social protection<br />A clear cleavage in crisis response debates is investment in basic services – pro or counter cyclical?<br />Also significant tensions in between cutting social expenditure on basic services and increasing that on targeted social protection<br />In Thailand there were significant cutbacks – reproductive and preventative healthcare (including HIV prevention and education)<br />Indonesia health sector spending declined by 9% and 13% (97/8 and 98/9)<br />At the same time social protection measures introduced – also with help of donors<br />Mexico and Argentina focused on targeted social protection and attempted to maintain basic services with help from World Bank <br />Where both can be maintained there are significantly fewer social impacts<br />
    27. 27. Current crisis – protecting services<br />The extent to which investments in basic services are being protected varies considerably across regions<br />SSA – AfDB warns spending on basic needs threatened<br />Nigeria – 16% cut in education and 20 % in health<br />MENA and Kazakhstan – no indication of increasing spend in response to crisis induced vulnerabilities (in both despite previous strong economic growth basic needs spend low)<br />By Contrast:<br />Thailand - Health budget protected through a special act<br />China $123 billion package introduced<br />Chile – counter-cyclical fiscal policy – 7.8% increase in social spending<br />Costa Rica – spend on housing and education increased<br />Social protection - although improved since last crisis - responses so far limited<br />Some exceptions – Kazakhstan, Mexico, Bolivia among others<br /> <br />
    28. 28. Attention to social protection remains one of the key features of successful policy responses – but we can and should do much more with our social protection packages:<br />
    29. 29. Summary of Cash Transfer Program <br />Responses, 2008-09<br />
    30. 30. Social Protection – education, health and nutrition<br />Pre-existing social protection systems and tailored crisis-specific responses - decisive in mitigating impacts on children’s educational, health and nutritional outcomes.<br />Scholarship programmes and social health insurance initiatives in East Asia, <br />Cash transfers in Latin America and <br />Public works in Latin America and Africa <br />BUT limited attention to child protection and care:<br />Despite rises in intra-household tensions and violence no increased investment in related social services<br />Shockingly limited response to rising rates of mental ill-health and drug and substance abuse in East Asia and transition country contexts<br />Despite starkly gendered effects of unemployment, under-employment and household poverty no measures to: <br />address women’s time poverty <br />support women’s greater responsibility for care and domestic work, for instance through subsidised childcare services<br />
    31. 31. Social Protection decisive in mitigating impacts but neglects child protection, nurture and care<br />
    32. 32. In Conclusion:<br />
    33. 33. Data: timely, systematic, age and gender disaggregated: social vulnerabilities – mental health, gender based violence, reduced social capital.<br />
    34. 34. Fiscal Space: counter cyclical spending; protect social services with social protection synergies.<br />
    35. 35. Social protection plus: child focused social protection; social vulnerabilities - gender based violence; trafficking; Social cohesion; mental wellbeing.<br />
    36. 36. Political Economy and Aid:Accountability and spaces for civil societyDonor awareness: cross donor working group on child rights<br />
    37. 37. Safeguarding and progressing children’s rights<br />Turning Crisis into Opportunity for Children – the Human Face of the Future<br />

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