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Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
Us economic outlook   micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012
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Us economic outlook micky levy, chief economist - bank of america 25 january 2012

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  • 1. US Economic & Financial Perspectives Mickey D. Levy Chief Economist Bank of America Going Global: Partnering for International Business Growth Charlotte, North Carolina January 25, 2012
  • 2. Slower Global Growth in 2012• Emerging nations (again) will significantly outperform advanced nations – Europe in mild recession – Japan stabilizes after rebound from 2011 supply shock – Latin America and Middle East generally healthy growth – US moderate growth continues• Europe: no financial calamity, but intermediate-term economic prospects are dim• International trade rising moderately amid global
  • 3. US: Moderate Growth with HighUnemployment• Moderate expansion, gaining traction – Consumer spending growing, but household balance sheet repair has further to go – Housing beginning to rise from depressed levels – Business investment remains healthy; exports are key• Employment lagging well behind GDP, but beginning to improve – Higher returns to capital, lower returns to labor• US vulnerable to European crisis
  • 4. US: Real GDP and Employment 14.0 140 138 13.5 136 13.0 $ Trillions 134 Millions 12.5 132 130 12.0 Real GDP (left scale) 128 11.5 Nonfarm Payrolls (right scale) 126 11.0 124Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
  • 5. Operating Profits and Cash Flows 2,500 2,000 $ Billions 1,500 1,000 500 Corporate Profits with IVA and CCadj Corporate Net Cash Flow 0 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
  • 6. Labor Share of GDP 66 64 62percent 60 58 56 54 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
  • 7. 1.0% Consumer Spending Trend 4%0.8% 3%0.6% 2%0.4%0.2% 1%0.0% 0%-0.2% -1%-0.4% -2%-0.6%-0.8% -3%-1.0% -4% 07 08 09 10 11 Monthly % Change Year-over-year % Change (right axis)Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 8. Real Consumption and Personal Income 10.0 2.2 Government Transfers (right axis) 9.5 Real Consumption (left axis) 2.0 9.0 1.8 $ Trillions $ Trillions 8.5 1.6 8.0 1.4 7.5 1.2 7.0 1.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
  • 9. Mortgage Debt as a Percent of Disposable Income 110% 100%% of Disposable Income 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Federal Reserve Board , Haver Analytics
  • 10. Home Sales 1600 7000 1400 6000 1200 5000 1000Thousands Thousands 4000 800 3000 600 New Home Sales (left) 2000 400 Existing Home Sales (right) 1000 200 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Source: Census Bureau/National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics
  • 11. Housing Starts 2500 2000Thousands 1500 1000 500 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Source: Census Bureau
  • 12. Business Fixed Investment 1400 1200 1000 Bil Chain 2005$ 800 Equipment and Software 600 Structures 400 200 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
  • 13. Imports and Exports 2500 2000 Bil Chain 2000$ Real Imports 1500 1000 Real Exports 500 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
  • 14. Distribution of US Exported Goods (2011 H1 = $721.92b)* Africa Other Emerging 2.3% 5.4% Canada 19.3% Australia & Other Asia Japan 13.3% 4.5% Latin America (Ex Mexico) India 11.2% 1.5% China 6.9% Mexico 13.1% Eastern & Other Eurozone Europe 13.5% 5.2% UK*NSA, Customs Basis 3.8%
  • 15. Composition of US Exported Goods (2011H1 = $725.38 Billion)* Consumer Foods, feeds & Other goods goods (ex-food beverages 3.7% and autos) 8.8% 11.9% Motor vehicles & parts 8.9% Industrial supplies & materials 33.6% Capital goods ex-autos 33.1% *SA, f.a.s.
  • 16. Sources of US Imported Goods Other Emerging 7.2% (2011 H1 = $1,067.78b)* Africa 4.5% Canada Australia & Other Asia 14.7% 8.7% Latin America (Ex Mexico) 7.9% Japan 5.5% India Mexico 1.7% 12.1% China 17.1% Eurozone UK 13.1% 2.3% Eastern & Other Europe*NSA, Customs Basis 5.2%
  • 17. Composition of US Imported Goods (2011H1 = $1093.39 Billion)* Foods, feeds & Other beverages, 4.80 goods, 2.90 Consumer goods (ex-food Industrial and autos), supplies & 23.60 materials, 34.50 Motor vehicles & parts, 11.20 Capital goods ex-autos, 23.00 *SA, Customs Value

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