Britain's infrastructure for the 21st century.

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The Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) has developed an integrated system-of-systems model (NISMOD) that can simulate the long term performance of infrastructure networks in Great Britain.

This analysis capability has been used to compare alternative long term strategies for infrastructure provision. In total we have examined 17 different options, to be implemented over the coming decades, under a wide range of scenarios of future demographic change, economic growth and climate change.

Our report presents interim results from that new analysis. Importantly, for the first time this report demonstrates how long term, cross-sectoral plans for infrastructure provision at a national scale can be mapped out and analysed.

See www.itrc.org.uk/outputs/second-report/ to download the full report.

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Britain's infrastructure for the 21st century.

  1. 1. Britain’s  Infrastructure  for  the  21st  Century     Interim  results  from  the  ITRC’s   Na5onal  Infrastructure  Assessment     Welcome  and  introduc9on   Roger  Street     14  January  2014   Ins9tu9on  of  Civil  Engineers    
  2. 2. Purpose   •  To  explain  key  concepts  and  methodology  for   na5onal  infrastructure  assessment   •  To  present  interim  results  and  obtain  feedback   •  To  explore  the  implica5ons  of  the  work   •  To  set  out  the  next  steps  for  ITRC  and  seek   further  engagement  in  the  research   programme  from  industry  and  government  
  3. 3. Programme  
  4. 4. Britain’s  Infrastructure  for  the  21st  Century     Interim  results  from  the  ITRC’s   Na5onal  Infrastructure  Assessment     Overview  of  the  assessment   Jim  Hall     14  January  2014   Ins9tu9on  of  Civil  Engineers    
  5. 5. “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”
  6. 6. The National Infrastructure Commission would… “produce a National Infrastructure Assessment looking at the UK’s needs over a 25-30 year time horizon” “It will develop evidence about the state of the nation’s assets and the likely impact of key economic, environmental and demographic trends” “It would set out an overarching vision for the strategic development of our national infrastructure, taking account of the main interdependencies between the sectors.”
  7. 7. ITRC  Aim  and  Ambi9on   Aim:  To  develop  and  demonstrate  a  new  genera5on  of   simula5on  models  and  tools  to  inform  the  analysis,  planning  and   design  of  na5onal  infrastructure     Ambi%on:  Enabling  a  revolu5on   in  the  strategic  analysis  of  NI   provision  in  the  UK…   whilst  at  the  same  5me  becoming   an  interna5onal  landmark   programme  recognised  for   novelty,  research  excellence  and   impact.    
  8. 8. The  ITRC  story  
  9. 9. Ques9ons   •  What  are  the  op5ons  for  na5onal  infrastructure   provision?   •  How  might  op5ons  be  put  together  into  a  long  term   na5onal  infrastructure  strategy?   •  How  will  alterna5ve  strategies  perform  in  terms  of   reliability,  security  of  supply  and  quality  of  service?     •  How  will  alterna5ve  strategies  perform  with  respect   to  environmental  impact,  in  par5cular  greenhouse   gas  emissions?   •  How  much  could  alterna5ve  strategies  cost?  
  10. 10. Developing  and  analysing  infrastructure  strategies  
  11. 11. Assessment  Methodology  
  12. 12. The  NISMOD  modelling  system  
  13. 13. NISMOD-­‐LP  
  14. 14. Na9onal  infrastructure  strategies   P-­‐MI:  Minimum  Interven5on   P-­‐CE:  Long-­‐term  Capacity   Expansion   P-­‐SE:  Increasing  System   Efficiency   P-­‐NS:  New  Services  and   Planning  
  15. 15. Na9onal  Infrastructure  Strategies  
  16. 16. Britain’s  Infrastructure  for  the  21st  Century     Interim  results  from  the  ITRC’s   Na5onal  Infrastructure  Assessment     Exploring  the  results   Robert  Nicholls  (chair)     14  January  2014   Ins9tu9on  of  Civil  Engineers    
  17. 17. Drivers  of  infrastructure  demand:  popula9on  
  18. 18. Drivers  of  infrastructure  demand:  popula9on  
  19. 19. Drivers  of  infrastructure  demand:  economy  
  20. 20. Drivers  of  infrastructure  demand:  economy  
  21. 21. Energy  demand  
  22. 22. Op9ons  for  energy  supply  
  23. 23. Costs  and  emissions  for  energy  supply  op9ons  
  24. 24. Transport  demand  
  25. 25. Transport  conges9on  
  26. 26. Airport  capacity  
  27. 27. Water  supply  
  28. 28. Cooling  water  
  29. 29. Waste  water  
  30. 30. Solid  waste  
  31. 31. Need  for  new  landfill  capacity  
  32. 32. Digital  communica9ons  
  33. 33. Na9onal  infrastructure  strategies   P-­‐MI:  Minimum  Interven5on   P-­‐CE:  Long-­‐term  Capacity   Expansion   P-­‐SE:  Increasing  System   Efficiency   P-­‐NS:  New  Services  and   Planning  
  34. 34. Assessment  of  na9onal  infrastructure   strategies  
  35. 35. Britain’s  Infrastructure  for  the  21st  Century     Interim  results  from  the  ITRC’s   Na5onal  Infrastructure  Assessment     Next  steps  for  ITRC   Jim  Hall     14  January  2014   Ins9tu9on  of  Civil  Engineers    
  36. 36. ITRC  Key  Ques9ons   1.  How  can  infrastructure  capacity  and  demand  be  balanced  in   an  uncertain  future?     2.  What  are  the  risks  of  infrastructure  failure  and  how  can  we   adapt  Na5onal  Infrastructure  to  make  it  more  resilient?     3.  How  do  infrastructure  systems  evolve  and  interact  with   society  and  the  economy?     4.  What  should  the  UK's  strategy  be  for  integrated  provision  of   NI  in  the  long  term?       36  
  37. 37. ITRC  achievements   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning   and  assessment  capability  for   Britain  
  38. 38. ITRC  achievements   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning   and  assessment  capability  for   Britain   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  vulnerability   and  ‘hotspots’  analysis  
  39. 39. ITRC  achievements   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning   and  assessment  capability  for   Britain   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  vulnerability   and  ‘hotspots’  analysis   •  Prototype  model  of  infrastructure-­‐ economy-­‐land  use  interac5ons  
  40. 40. ITRC  achievements   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning   and  assessment  capability  for   Britain   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  vulnerability   and  ‘hotspots’  analysis   •  Prototype  model  of  infrastructure-­‐ economy-­‐land  use  interac5ons   •  Understanding  the  governance   issues  around  infrastructure   interdependency   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  database   and  visualisa5on  tools   •  Deepening  engagement  with   industry  and  goverment  
  41. 41. ITRC  achievements   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning   and  assessment  capability  for   Britain   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  vulnerability   and  ‘hotspots’  analysis   •  Prototype  model  of  infrastructure-­‐ economy-­‐land  use  interac5ons   •  Understanding  the  governance   issues  around  infrastructure   interdependency   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  database   and  visualisa5on  tools  
  42. 42. ITRC  achievements   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning   and  assessment  capability  for   Britain   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  vulnerability   and  ‘hotspots’  analysis   •  Prototype  model  of  infrastructure-­‐ economy-­‐land  use  interac5ons   •  Understanding  the  governance   issues  around  infrastructure   interdependency   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  database   and  visualisa5on  tools   •  Deepening  engagement  with   industry  and  government  
  43. 43. ITRC  next  steps   •  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure   strategic  analysis  
  44. 44. ITRC  next  steps   •  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure   strategic  analysis   •  Further  integrate  and  automate   modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP  
  45. 45. ITRC  next  steps   •  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure   strategic  analysis   •  Further  integrate  and  automate   modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP   •  Further  develop  the  database  and   visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐ DB  
  46. 46. ITRC  next  steps   •  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure   strategic  analysis   •  Further  integrate  and  automate   modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP   •  Further  develop  the  database  and   visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐ DB   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis   in  NISMOD-­‐RV  
  47. 47. ITRC  next  steps   •  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure   strategic  analysis   •  Further  integrate  and  automate   modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP   •  Further  develop  the  database  and   visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐ DB   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis   in  NISMOD-­‐RV   •  Infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use   model  NISMOD-­‐RD  
  48. 48. ITRC  next  steps   •  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure   strategic  analysis   •  Further  integrate  and  automate   modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP   •  Further  develop  the  database  and   visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐ DB   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis   in  NISMOD-­‐RV   •  Infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use   model  NISMOD-­‐RD  
  49. 49. ITRC  next  steps   •  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure   strategic  analysis   •  Further  integrate  and  automate   modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP   •  Further  develop  the  database  and   visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐ DB   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis   in  NISMOD-­‐RV   •  Infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use   model  NISMOD-­‐RD   •  Further  analysis  of  governance   issues  
  50. 50. ITRC  next  steps   •  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure   strategic  analysis   •  Further  integrate  and  automate   modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP   •  Further  develop  the  database  and   visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐ DB   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis   in  NISMOD-­‐RV   •  Infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use   model  NISMOD-­‐RD   •  Further  analysis  of  governance   issues   •  Engagement  and  impact  
  51. 51. ITRC  next  steps   •  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure   strategic  analysis   •  Further  integrate  and  automate   modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP   •  Further  develop  the  database  and   visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐ DB   •  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis   in  NISMOD-­‐RV   •  Infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use   model  NISMOD-­‐RD   •  Further  analysis  of  governance   issues   •  Engagement  and  impact   •  Beyond  2015…  
  52. 52. Britain’s  Infrastructure  for  the  21st  Century     Interim  results  from  the  ITRC’s   Na5onal  Infrastructure  Assessment       14  January  2014   Ins9tu9on  of  Civil  Engineers    

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