Future skill needs in Europe




Future skill needs in Europe
                         Presented by

                     ...
Future skill needs in Europe



Overview
• Introduction:
      –   Cedefop and Skillsnet
      –   Policy background
     ...
Future skill needs in Europe


    Cedefop’s role and objective
    (a)     carrying out thorough applied research and com...
Future skill needs in Europe

  Cedefop’s medium term priorities
            2009-2011
  ‘European VET policies, trends in...
Future skill needs in Europe



                 Cedefop’s activities
                                      Observation
  ...
Future skill needs in Europe

 C
                                                                     VET
 E              ...
Future skill needs in Europe



      Some facts and figures, 2008
     Human resources
    128 staff
    6 national exp...
Future skill needs in Europe



                  Cedefop’s Skillsnet
• International network on early
  identification of...
Future skill needs in Europe



                  Sectoral workshops
• Trends and skill needs in the tourism sector
  2004...
Future skill needs in Europe



                     Employer’s surveys
•        explore possibilities of employers survey...
Future skill needs in Europe



               Skill needs forecasts
Future skill needs in Europe. Focus on 2020
 (2008)
F...
Future skill needs in Europe



                 Policy background
• Council resolution New Skills for New Jobs
  2007/C 2...
Future skill needs in Europe



                      Terminology
What does the term ‘skill’ stand for?
Market failures fo...
Future skill needs in Europe

         Main challenges of labour
                 markets

•   Demographic change
•   Tech...
Future skill needs in Europe



What forecasts…
can provide?
   – systematic analysis of the implications of continuation
...
Future skill needs in Europe



Key forecasting approaches
•    Quantitative, model based projections
•    Ad hoc sectoral...
Future skill needs in Europe


European skills forecasting
Cedefop's Skillsnet pro-active approach
    – comparable inform...
Future skill needs in Europe

Medium-term forecast
of occupational skill needs
Objectives:
• consistent pan-European skill...
Future skill needs in Europe



Team effort




      + INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY EXPERTS (Skillsnet)


8-9 September 2008   19  ...
Future skill needs in Europe



Modular approach to skill needs forecasting
                             Overview of the F...
Future skill needs in Europe


Modular approach  the Framework
                   Multi-sectoral
                  macroe...
Future skill needs in Europe

  Modelling sectoral employment
• Sectoral employment a function of:
    – gross output; lab...
Future skill needs in Europe


    Projected Sectoral change by country,
     2006-2015: continued transition to a
     kn...
Future skill needs in Europe

             Alternative possible futures:
             exploring different scenarios
Scenar...
Future skill needs in Europe


    Future trends at a pan-European
              level (EU-25+)
•    by sector (up to 41 i...
Future skill needs in Europe




8-9 September 2008   26                   UIMP, Santander
Future skill needs in Europe

                   Millions


Past              60                                          ...
Future skill needs in Europe

                      100%                            4.2         Primary sector
           ...
Future skill needs in Europe

                                                                                            ...
Future skill needs in Europe
                       100%



Past and               80%
                               34.9...
Future skill needs in Europe
                            Legislators, senior                                      3
      ...
Future skill needs in Europe
                                                                       -2   0   2     4     6...
Future skill needs in Europe

                        Million jobs
                        250

Past and
             200
...
Future skill needs in Europe



                                                                                          ...
Future skill needs in Europe

                       100%

                                   20.9
                       ...
Future skill needs in Europe


 Qualification requirements increase in
all occupations – also in elementary jobs
         ...
Future skill needs in Europe

Key similarities and differences
across countries
• Many common trends:
   – sectors, occupa...
Future skill needs in Europe



Key results: summary
• Further sectoral shifts towards services
• Growing demand for highl...
Future skill needs in Europe



Implications for policies
Adaptation of workforce and their skills to
 new requirements an...
Future skill needs in Europe


Achievements to date
• consistent and comprehensive projections
  for EU-25+
• valuable ins...
Future skill needs in Europe



Future priorities
Continuing dialogue: with country experts
 and stakeholders
Overcome dat...
Future skill needs in Europe


Contact details for further
information:
 Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet


   ...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Uimp Peter Szovics

571

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
571
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
10
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Uimp Peter Szovics

  1. 1. Future skill needs in Europe Future skill needs in Europe Presented by Peter Szovics Cedefop 8-9 September 2008 1 UIMP, Santander
  2. 2. Future skill needs in Europe Overview • Introduction: – Cedefop and Skillsnet – Policy background – Skill needs – Rationale and objectives of forecasts • Methodology: the framework and modules • Results: Europe’s changing skill needs – Sectoral prospects – Occupations – Replacement needs – Implications for qualifications • Summary and conclusions 8-9 September 2008 2 UIMP, Santander
  3. 3. Future skill needs in Europe Cedefop’s role and objective (a) carrying out thorough applied research and comparative analyses of VET issues, trends and challenges; (b) providing an expert and independent European perspective, developing and encouraging European approaches, principles and tools to improve VET and achieve common aims; (c) being a unique forum bringing together diverse VET interests of policy-makers, social partners, researchers and practitioners to encourage mutual learning and debate proposals for policy and research; (d) raising awareness and understanding of how VET is evolving, its role in lifelong learning and its contribution to other policies. 8-9 September 2008 3 UIMP, Santander
  4. 4. Future skill needs in Europe Cedefop’s medium term priorities 2009-2011 ‘European VET policies, trends in skills and learning, VET’s impact and visibility’ (a) informing European VET policies; (b) interpreting European trends in and challenges for skills, competences and learning; (c) assessing VET’s benefits; (d) raising the profile of VET. 8-9 September 2008 4 UIMP, Santander
  5. 5. Future skill needs in Europe Cedefop’s activities Observation WWW Cedefop web site, ETV, virtual Study visits communities, Infodoc Analysis Publications Conferences- European Journal “Agora”, of VET Seminars, Research and Expert panels, policy reports Sharing expertise Supporting Cedefop info Sector flashes clusters Networks Statistics and Refernet, TTNet , indicators Evidence based policy Skillsnet, making CEDRA ,ERO 8-9 September 2008 5 UIMP, Santander
  6. 6. Future skill needs in Europe C VET E Refernet Financing D EknowVET E F Research reporting Social partners O Statistics and Indicators CEDRA ERO P’s Policy Skillsnet reporting Analysis A C T EQF/ECVET I Guidenance Familiarization V I T TT net CQAN I E Enhanced S Research and cooperation in Policy Analysis VET and LLL 8-9 September 2008 6 UIMP, Santander
  7. 7. Future skill needs in Europe Some facts and figures, 2008 Human resources  128 staff  6 national experts;  38% male 62% female. Budget  around 17.6 m. Euros Source: WP 2008 8-9 September 2008 7 UIMP, Santander
  8. 8. Future skill needs in Europe Cedefop’s Skillsnet • International network on early identification of skill needs • Platform for dialogue and information exchange • On-going projects Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet 8-9 September 2008 8 UIMP, Santander
  9. 9. Future skill needs in Europe Sectoral workshops • Trends and skill needs in the tourism sector 2004 • Identification of skill needs in nanotechnologies 2005 • Trends and skill needs in innovative agri-food and forestry-wood chains 2006 • Future skill needs in the health care sector 2008 • Future skill needs for the green economy 2008 8-9 September 2008 9 UIMP, Santander
  10. 10. Future skill needs in Europe Employer’s surveys • explore possibilities of employers surveys as an analytical tool which may help to reveal qualitative changes in the demand for skills, competences and qualifications; • identify existing employers surveys in the EU Member States and at EU level; • look for feasible ways to achieve a comprehensive and comparable analysis of skill requirements at company level 8-9 September 2008 10 UIMP, Santander
  11. 11. Future skill needs in Europe Skill needs forecasts Future skill needs in Europe. Focus on 2020 (2008) Future skill needs in Europe. Medium-term forecast: key findings (2008) Medium-term forecast of skills supply in Europe: (2008) Towards European skill needs forecasting (2007) 8-9 September 2008 11 UIMP, Santander
  12. 12. Future skill needs in Europe Policy background • Council resolution New Skills for New Jobs 2007/C 290/01 • Integrated Guidelines for Growth and Jobs 2008-2010 Council resolution COM (2007) 803 • June 2008 The council (EPSCO) invited the Commission to report with its first assessment of the future skills requirements in Europe up to 2020 • Anticipating and matching labour market needs: New Skills for New Jobs 8-9 September 2008 12 UIMP, Santander
  13. 13. Future skill needs in Europe Terminology What does the term ‘skill’ stand for? Market failures for skills Skill shortages - two dimension - quantitative and qualitative Skill gap - qualitative mismatch, transitory nature Skill shortages (UK NSTF) EXTERNAL RECRUITMENT PROBLEMS – Hard to Fill Vacancies (HtFVs) – Skill Shortage Vacancies (SSVs) INTERNAL PROBLEMS – Skill Gaps 8-9 September 2008 13 UIMP, Santander
  14. 14. Future skill needs in Europe Main challenges of labour markets • Demographic change • Technological progress • Globalisation • Educational upgrading 8-9 September 2008 14 UIMP, Santander
  15. 15. Future skill needs in Europe What forecasts… can provide? – systematic analysis of the implications of continuation of past trends and patterns of behaviour – alternative scenarios based on alternative assumptions – basis for intelligent and informed debate and further research cannot provide? – precise predictions that can be used for detailed manpower planning (not a crystal ball) – qualitative information on skills and competences 8-9 September 2008 15 UIMP, Santander
  16. 16. Future skill needs in Europe Key forecasting approaches • Quantitative, model based projections • Ad hoc sectoral or occupational studies • Surveys of employers or other groups • Focus groups/round tables and other Delphi style methods, including setting up observatories 8-9 September 2008 16 UIMP, Santander
  17. 17. Future skill needs in Europe European skills forecasting Cedefop's Skillsnet pro-active approach – comparable information Europe-wide – feasible & cost-effective First stage: demand side (skill needs - jobs) Second stage: supply side (available skills – people) and identification of possible imbalances Next stages: further improvement of methods and data bases; additional research; joint European approach 8-9 September 2008 17 UIMP, Santander
  18. 18. Future skill needs in Europe Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs Objectives: • consistent pan-European skills projections using comparable data • new methodological framework • systematic dialogue and discussion BUT data issues and concerns 8-9 September 2008 18 UIMP, Santander
  19. 19. Future skill needs in Europe Team effort + INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY EXPERTS (Skillsnet) 8-9 September 2008 19 UIMP, Santander
  20. 20. Future skill needs in Europe Modular approach to skill needs forecasting Overview of the Framework Module 1: Macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios Module 2: Expansion demand by occupation Module 3: Expansion demand by qualification Module 4: Replacement demand 8-9 September 2008 20 UIMP, Santander
  21. 21. Future skill needs in Europe Modular approach  the Framework Multi-sectoral macroeconomic model Stock and expansion Stock and expansion demand by demand by occupation qualification Replacement demand by occupation/qualification Job openings by Job openings by occupation qualification 8-9 September 2008 21 UIMP, Santander
  22. 22. Future skill needs in Europe Modelling sectoral employment • Sectoral employment a function of: – gross output; labour costs; average hours worked; energy prices and technical progress (mostly defined by country and sector) • Specification: – short-term dynamics and move towards long-term equilibrium • Modelled independently for each country: • Key employment elasticities (27 country average) 8-9 September 2008 22 UIMP, Santander
  23. 23. Future skill needs in Europe Projected Sectoral change by country, 2006-2015: continued transition to a knowledge based, service economy Change in Employment by Country, 2006-2015 EUR EU BE CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL NO AT PL PT CH SI SK FI SE GB (27) (25) Primary & utilities Manufacturing Construction Distribution & transport Business & other services Non-marketed services % increases 2006-2015 > 20 10 to 20 0 to 10 -10 to 0 < -10 8-9 September 2008 23 UIMP, Santander
  24. 24. Future skill needs in Europe Alternative possible futures: exploring different scenarios Scenario Economic growth Social Technological Globalization Demography and welfare and change and mobility competitiveness government A: Baseline Base No change Medium Base Base (ageing population) B: Higher Lower taxes Higher Higher Higher Optimistic and benefits working age population C: Lower Higher taxes Lower Lower Higher life Pessimistic and benefits expectancy, even higher 8-9 September 2008 24 UIMP, Santander dependency
  25. 25. Future skill needs in Europe Future trends at a pan-European level (EU-25+) • by sector (up to 41 industries) • by occupation (up to 27 occupations) • by qualification (3 broad levels) • plus replacement demands EU-25+ = EU-25 + Norway and Switzerland 8-9 September 2008 25 UIMP, Santander
  26. 26. Future skill needs in Europe 8-9 September 2008 26 UIMP, Santander
  27. 27. Future skill needs in Europe Millions Past 60 Distribution and transport and 50 Non-marketed likely services Business & other services 40 future 30 Manufacturing trends by 20 Construction sector 10 Primary sector & utilities (EU-25+) 0 1996 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Forecast 8-9 September 2008 27 UIMP, Santander
  28. 28. Future skill needs in Europe 100% 4.2 Primary sector 7.8 5.6 Past and 22.4 and utilities likely 80% 26.7 23.8 Manufacturing + construction future Services + 60% sectoral distribution and transport structure 40% (EU-25+) 70.6 73.4 65.5 20% 0% 1996 2006 2015 8-9 September 2008 28 UIMP, Santander
  29. 29. Future skill needs in Europe 17.9 All industries 13.3 Past and Primary sector -3.1 and utilities likely -2.3 -2.9 1996-2006 future Manufacturing -0.5 2006-2015 sectoral 1.4 Construction 0.4 change Distribution and transport 3.5 5.9 (EU-25+) Business and 11.6 other services 8.9 Non-marketed 5.1 services 3.2 -5 0 5 10 15 20 million jobs 8-9 September 2008 29 UIMP, Santander
  30. 30. Future skill needs in Europe 100% Past and 80% 34.9 37.8 40.6 likely High-skilled non- manual occupations future 60% occupational 26.0 25.1 24.1 Low-skilled non- manual occupations structure 40% (EU-25+) 29.9 25.6 22.9 Skilled manual occupations 20% 8.6 10.9 11.8 Elementary 0% occupations 1996 2006 2015 8-9 September 2008 30 UIMP, Santander
  31. 31. Future skill needs in Europe Legislators, senior 3 officials and managers 2.7 3 Professionals 3.8 Technicians and 6 Past and associate professionals Clerks -1 4.7 likely -1.3 1996-2006 2006-2015 Service workers and shop 4 future and market sales workers 2.5 Skilled agricultural -2 and fishery workers -1.7 occupational Craft and related trades workers -2 -1.4 change Plant and machine operators and assemblers 0 0.5 (EU-25+) Elementary occupations 3.5 6 18 All occupations 13.3 -5 0 5 10 15 20 million jobs 8-9 September 2008 31 UIMP, Santander
  32. 32. Future skill needs in Europe -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Legislators, senior officials and managers Professionals Technicians and associate professionals Replacement Clerks Service workers, shop/market sales workers demand Skilled agricultural and fishery workers (EU-25+) Expansion demand Craft and related trades workers Replacement demand Plant and machine operators and assemblers Total requirements Elementary occupations 8-9 September 2008 32 UIMP, Santander
  33. 33. Future skill needs in Europe Million jobs 250 Past and 200 likely High qualification future 150 qualification trends 100 Medium qualification (EU-25+) 50 Low qualification 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 8-9 September 2008 33 UIMP, Santander
  34. 34. Future skill needs in Europe 13 High qualification Past 12.4 and Medium qualification 13 likely 9.5 future Low qualification -8 1996-2006 2006-2015 qualification -8.6 change All qualifications 18 (EU-25+) 13.3 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 million jobs 8-9 September 2008 34 UIMP, Santander
  35. 35. Future skill needs in Europe 100% 20.9 25.3 29.3 Past and 80% High qualification likely future 60% 46.2 48.6 Medium qualification qualification 40% 49.9 structure (EU-25+) 20% 32.9 Low qualification 26.2 20.8 0% 1996 2006 2015 8-9 September 2008 35 UIMP, Santander
  36. 36. Future skill needs in Europe Qualification requirements increase in all occupations – also in elementary jobs Net change 2006 - 2015 8.3 High-skilled non-manual 3.3 occupations -0.4 2.4 Low-skilled non-manual 1.1 occupations -2.3 High qualification 0.8 Medium qualification Skilled manual -4.8 1.5 occupations Low qualification 0.9 Elementary occupations 3.6 -1.0 -5 0 million jobs 5 10 8-9 September 2008 36 UIMP, Santander
  37. 37. Future skill needs in Europe Key similarities and differences across countries • Many common trends: – sectors, occupations, replacement needs, qualifications • Some differences: – stage of economic development, different industrial & occupational structures ► process of convergence 8-9 September 2008 37 UIMP, Santander
  38. 38. Future skill needs in Europe Key results: summary • Further sectoral shifts towards services • Growing demand for highly and medium skilled workers, losses for low skilled • Losses offset by replacement needs • Increasing qualification requirements across all jobs but at the same time growing demand for elementary occupations 8-9 September 2008 38 UIMP, Santander
  39. 39. Future skill needs in Europe Implications for policies Adaptation of workforce and their skills to new requirements and structural change  retraining, active LM measures, up-skilling,… Prevention of skill mismatch  reducing drop- outs, guidance and counselling, social policies, migration, recognition of non&in-formal learning ►INVOLVEMENT OF STAKEHOLDERS AND SOCIAL PARTNERS 8-9 September 2008 39 UIMP, Santander
  40. 40. Future skill needs in Europe Achievements to date • consistent and comprehensive projections for EU-25+ • valuable insights for policy makers and others • sound foundation for further development ► ongoing process: need to improve data and methods 8-9 September 2008 40 UIMP, Santander
  41. 41. Future skill needs in Europe Future priorities Continuing dialogue: with country experts and stakeholders Overcome data problems: policy support needed to refine data Further refinement: the models/framework Complementary research: forecast of skills supply and more detailed analysis of skill needs at enterprise and sectoral level 8-9 September 2008 41 UIMP, Santander
  42. 42. Future skill needs in Europe Contact details for further information: Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet Manfred Tessaring, Alena Zukersteinova, Dunkel Torsten, Peter Szovics Skillsnet-team@cedefop.europa.eu 8-9 September 2008 42 UIMP, Santander
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×